COVID-19 Thread

[Outlander]

I have been to a couple of Wal Marts in the Madison area by home and work this week and while they are limiting people and only have one entrance they have not shut down any departments.

[PeaveyFury]

IMHE updated projections. US as a whole is three days from a peak and Wisconsin is only 5 days from a peak (April 13th). IMHE has it virtually done in Wisconsin by May...though my understanding is their model assumes we social distance till June.

 

We will see how this new projection ages. Seems optimistic to be only 3-5 days before this thing starts tailing off for most of the country. But...I suppose social distancing can be a magical thing.

 

Obviously, I think yesterday's election has the potential to destroy the optimistic projections for Wisconsin....

 

While not beneficial, I think it’s impact won’t really be that relevant. Those polling places aren’t much different than everyone needing to go to the grocery store. Really the way I think of it they are probably way better. Constantly cleaning and wiping things down...lots of hand sanitizer. Most grocery stores probably don’t provide you hand sanitizer and probably wipe things down at the end of each day.

 

Obviously funneling a bunch of people to the polls isn’t the best thing in the world, but for the majority of places the lack of turnout and absentee will really minimize how many were truly going through those places. Pretty sure more hit up the bar for fish fry takeout last Friday than my polling place from the sounds of it. The pictures of Milwaukee are all the rage, but I’m guessing most places didn’t have huge lines (and to be fair those people did social distance).

 

Sorry, I strongly disagree. I can't imagine people waiting in lines stretching around city blocks at grocery stores. You can assume Milwaukee was the exception, but it was not. I can 100% verify that the same thing was happening in places like Green Bay as well. For a disease that has hammered cities/urban areas more significantly than anywhere else, there's almost no way having people in close quarters like that won't cause significant problems over the next couple of weeks, IMO.

[FVBrewerFan]

Except they weren't in close quarters. They showed the lines, people were over 6 feet apart standing in line. They slowly filtered people into the building to vote. There were no mass gatherings.

[PeaveyFury]

Except they weren't in close quarters. They showed the lines, people were over 6 feet apart standing in line. They slowly filtered people into the building to vote. There were no mass gatherings.

 

You're certain of that in every single case, or is that just based on the pictures you happened to see online?

 

And none of those people in any case touched the same pen that happened to be unsanitary (meaning not one got missed in between the flurry of voters)? Or the same door handle?

 

I understand that precautions were taken in most places, but to assume that little transmission was possible yesterday seems like absolute fallacy to me.

[adambr2]

I think location does have some impact here. I did have friends in Madison note that they were the only ones at their polling place and were hoping that didn't mean people weren't voting.

 

The negative impact is on that R0 ratio -- how many people each infected person ends up spreading the disease to. Need to get that ratio under 1 to start seeing a decline in cases, and having lines of people voting, no doubt some carrying COVID-19, does not help.

 

If there's a "positive", it's that it may cause the apex to arrive sooner in Wisconsin, but at what cost?

 

There shouldn't have been an in-person election yesterday, obviously, without venturing into the political side of things here.

[PeaveyFury]

I think location does have some impact here. I did have friends in Madison note that they were the only ones at their polling place and were hoping that didn't mean people weren't voting.

 

The negative impact is on that R0 ratio -- how many people each infected person ends up spreading the disease to. Need to get that ratio under 1 to start seeing a decline in cases, and having lines of people voting, no doubt some carrying COVID-19, does not help.

 

If there's a "positive", it's that it may cause the apex to arrive sooner in Wisconsin, but at what cost?

 

There shouldn't have been an in-person election yesterday, obviously, without venturing into the political side of things here.

 

Great post, I agree on all points.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Except they weren't in close quarters. They showed the lines, people were over 6 feet apart standing in line. They slowly filtered people into the building to vote. There were no mass gatherings.

 

You're certain of that in every single case, or is that just based on the pictures you happened to see online?

 

And none of those people in any case touched the same pen that happened to be unsanitary (meaning not one got missed in between the flurry of voters)? Or the same door handle?

 

I understand that precautions were taken in most places, but to assume that little transmission was possible yesterday seems like absolute fallacy to me.

 

I get it, but this election also comes multiple weeks after people have largely been sheltering in place - I don't think there were people hooked to ventilators getting pushed through the voting lines anywhere yesterday, so folks who were obviously ill had a pretty high likelihood of staying home. For their own sake, I'd hope many people who are in the higher risk populations also chose to stay home instead of voting - they do have that option if they are wary of getting infected. It sucks that voting took place under these circumstances, but it also sucks roughly 25% of the working population in America currently doesn't have a job right now, too. Equating every time someone comes within 6 feet of somebody else on a bike trail, ice cream shop, or polling place as a recipe for sky is falling community spread wears thin really, really fast.

 

The in-person primaries that occurred in late February/early march, including super tuesday, were the ones that were much, much more likely to increase community spread - not one that took place well after many of these measures were implemented. And how different was the risk in going to vote compared to the public routinely frequenting grocery stores for food and touching the same grocery items/breathing the same air everyone else in that building does?

[PeaveyFury]

I get it, but this election also comes multiple weeks after people have largely been sheltering in place - I don't think there were people hooked to ventilators getting pushed through the voting lines anywhere yesterday

 

Sure. But far and away the larger risk are the people who are asymptomatic and shedding virus to all they come in contact with, who may have been in contact with those people for 1-2 hours yesterday.

 

And how different was the risk in going to vote compared to the public routinely frequenting grocery stores for food and touching the same grocery items/breathing the same air everyone else in that building does?

 

Are you typically standing in line for 2 hours at the grocery store breathing in that air? Largely in a sedentary state with the people immediately around you?

 

Equating every time someone comes within 6 feet of somebody else on a bike trail, ice cream shop, or polling place as a recipe for sky is falling community spread wears thin really, really fast.

 

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

[FVBrewerFan]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

 

Rock County has four covid-19 deaths. There to my knowledge have been 0 lightning strike deaths in Rock County this year. Saying that you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning is honestly kind of false.

[FVBrewerFan]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

 

Rock County has four covid-19 deaths. There to my knowledge have been 0 lightning strike deaths in Rock County this year. Saying that you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning is honestly kind of false.

 

Hence "almost" literally. It's not Tstorm season yet if we really want to get crazy. But you proved my point. 4 vs 0 is statistically the same down to several decimal points. Known deaths due to getting ice cream- 0.

[JosephC]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

The car dealership that I do business with voluntarily shut down two weeks ago (including the service department). Got an e-mail last night that they are back up and running. It would be interesting to find out why that happened. Owners didn't want to lose more money? Employees not happy about facing the possibility of not getting paid (they were paid in full the last two weeks...but maybe that was going to end)? Customers not happy that they couldn't get their cars fixed? All of the above? My guess is that it was a little bit of all of that.

 

I still think the country is back up and running no later than the first week in July...really expecting it to happen sooner. I just don't think society works much longer with what is happening. Too many businesses shut down. Too many people out of a job. More and more stress put on the government who still need to pay people (not only the public sector employees, but also people that need additional assistance due to the shutdown) and build roads, etc.

[PeaveyFury]

Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state.

 

...and potentially detrimental to the health of yourself and others. Non-essential should be non-essential. Keep yourself at home.

 

That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

...though admittedly your opinion and not that of those who actually have a hand in resolving what is happening here, right?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

 

Rock County has four covid-19 deaths. There to my knowledge have been 0 lightning strike deaths in Rock County this year. Saying that you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning is honestly kind of false.

 

Hence "almost" literally. It's not Tstorm season yet if we really want to get crazy. But you proved my point. 4 vs 0 is statistically the same down to several decimal points. Known deaths due to getting ice cream- 0.

 

You're arguing semantics to make a really weird point. You can still get covid-19 up in the hospital. You can get a hospital bill. You can stress the Healthcare System. There are a lot of people with covid-19. People don't get struck by lightning.

[LouisEly]

Honest question - the study that said that the virus can live in the air for three hours, from what I understand, was done with aerosols, which I understand to be particles dispersed into air in an enclosed space. Maybe the chemists and scientific researchers here can clarify.

 

Do we know that's the same in the outdoors/open air as it is in an enclosed space? How do they account for wind/air currents, the sun, and other things in nature?

[owbc]

Honest question - the study that said that the virus can live in the air for three hours, from what I understand, was done with aerosols, which I understand to be particles dispersed into air in an enclosed space. Maybe the chemists and scientific researchers here can clarify.

 

Do we know that's the same in the outdoors/open air as it is in an enclosed space? How do they account for wind/air currents, the sun, and other things in nature?

 

This came up on NPR the other day, the expert opinion was that the particles will disperse quickly in the open air, so it would be highly unlikely that you catch it from someone while doing outdoor activities at a safe distance (like passing on the sidewalk). But as someone who has studied pesticide spray drift a bit I can say that under certain weather conditions aerosols can linger for quite a while without dispersing. So the risk is not zero, hence why congregating in parks or other outdoor spaces is a bad idea. But if you are passing someone from the opposite sidewalk I wouldn't worry.

[monkeyman343434]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

There are plenty of counties in Wisconsin that are reporting their first cases this week, this thing is now picking up in a lot of the smaller population counties now, this is not "close to time to open up the stores and restaurants."

 

Down here in Houston, we are now up to 1,380 for the city and have been adding more and more people every day - 400 on Monday and 170 on Tuesday (some due to back log tests, which means there have been a lot of people moving around the city not knowing they could be spreading it) and on average about 80 per day last week, so no, it is not "close to time to open up the stores and restaurants." We are still weeks away from being able to be in public without worrying about it wide spreading. If we had more strict actions taken early when this was starting to take off, we WOULD be at the "time to open up the stores and restaurants" like South Korea, because they took this seriously and took extreme measures to make sure it didn't blow up. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

I agree that people should be aware of the risks of this virus by now, but yet there are still a ton of idiots who don't think this will impact them, or think it is a joke, and are ignoring the social distancing and other measures put into place to knock this out.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Seems like this is easily remedied by those people staying home, rather than going to that ice cream place....

 

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter.

 

t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal.

 

There are plenty of counties in Wisconsin that are reporting their first cases this week, this thing is now picking up in a lot of the smaller population counties now, this is not "close to time to open up the stores and restaurants."

 

Down here in Houston, we are now up to 1,380 for the city and have been adding more and more people every day - 400 on Monday and 170 on Tuesday (some due to back log tests, which means there have been a lot of people moving around the city not knowing they could be spreading it) and on average about 80 per day last week, so no, it is not "close to time to open up the stores and restaurants." We are still weeks away from being able to be in public without worrying about it wide spreading. If we had more strict actions taken early when this was starting to take off, we WOULD be at the "time to open up the stores and restaurants" like South Korea, because they took this seriously and took extreme measures to make sure it didn't blow up. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

I agree that people should be aware of the risks of this virus by now, but yet there are still a ton of idiots who don't think this will impact them, or think it is a joke, and are ignoring the social distancing and other measures put into place to knock this out.

 

South Korea is going back to restricting everything again because cases are once again spiking. Basically if you do really well with a total social lockdown and were the original model of lots of testing during an initial spread, you are just as subject to it flaring up again when you try reopening society. And tracking daily confirmed case totals isn't a good way to view how many people may unknowingly be still moving around with the virus - at this stage in testing across most of the country, most all of it is done on people who have shown symptoms or who came in contact with a known case, and those people are instructed to self-quarantine while awaiting results. I highly doubt there's a mob of millenials and college kids who ran down to a Houston clinic to get tested for Covid and have been on a citywide bender for the past week-10 days spreading germs like crazy until their results come in.

 

MN now extending its shelter in place order until May 4....yippee....the state saw 5 people die who had Covid-19 yesterday, 1 the day before. Never mind the average age of death in this state of people who had Covid is 86 and they pretty much all would have been in serious jeopardy had they picked up a bad cold instead of Covid, let's put a half million + MN folks out of work and not have any sort of stated plan on how things open back up to allow the rest of the state to get infected while we dig out of this mess - which will need to happen at some point to move past this. I feel like actually doing a really good job on a state level of social distancing just sets us up for waiting too long to move past it and causing greater pain in the long run.

 

While not surprising, it's also frustrating that of the roughly 1150 confirmed cases to date in MN (about 650 of which are recovered and no longer contagious), at least 300 are medical staff that were infected by treating or being around patients. So about 1/3 of all MN cases are people trying to care for the other 2/3...In my book that's not community transmission in public spaces, although I'm sure that's how they register in databases.

 

Meanwhile there are stories cropping up in states where the increased deaths due to suicides are outpacing Covid-related deaths. Hopefully there will be some modeling done pretty soon on how to flatten that curve.

[superfly]

Except they weren't in close quarters. They showed the lines, people were over 6 feet apart standing in line. They slowly filtered people into the building to vote. There were no mass gatherings.

 

You're certain of that in every single case, or is that just based on the pictures you happened to see online?

 

And none of those people in any case touched the same pen that happened to be unsanitary (meaning not one got missed in between the flurry of voters)? Or the same door handle?

 

I understand that precautions were taken in most places, but to assume that little transmission was possible yesterday seems like absolute fallacy to me.

 

 

And you’re certain that every case other than the ones he saw online are like a virus spreading machine? People are in those voting areas for seconds or minutes, and every single one of them had coronavirus on their mind.

 

If this is like every other “coronavirus,” it’s on it’s way out the door shortly, and will be back next winter. Half+ the country will likely be immune by then.

[owbc]

As has been noted many times, massive randomized testing is the only way to open more things up while the virus is still going around. For many reasons that currently isn't possible but it probably will be in a month or two.

 

There are statistics on non-COVID deaths, they are at a record low which is kind of ironic, less accidental deaths due to staying inside. On average about 7,500 people die per day in the US (~130 of them are suicides) so the current COVID count of 2,000 dead per day is a BIG number.

 

There is no evidence that coronavirus spread is significantly slowed by warm weather, other than the fact that cold weather tends to result in people spending more time in close quarters.

[superfly]

South Korea is going back to restricting everything again because cases are once again spiking. Basically if you do really well with a total social lockdown and were the original model of lots of testing during an initial spread, you are just as subject to it flaring up again when you try reopening society. And tracking daily confirmed case totals isn't a good way to view how many people may unknowingly be still moving around with the virus - at this stage in testing across most of the country, most all of it is done on people who have shown symptoms or who came in contact with a known case, and those people are instructed to self-quarantine while awaiting results. I highly doubt there's a mob of millenials and college kids who ran down to a Houston clinic to get tested for Covid and have been on a citywide bender for the past week-10 days spreading germs like crazy until their results come in.

 

MN now extending its shelter in place order until May 4....yippee....the state saw 5 people die who had Covid-19 yesterday, 1 the day before. Never mind the average age of death in this state of people who had Covid is 86 and they pretty much all would have been in serious jeopardy had they picked up a bad cold instead of Covid, let's put a half million + MN folks out of work and not have any sort of stated plan on how things open back up to allow the rest of the state to get infected while we dig out of this mess - which will need to happen at some point to move past this. I feel like actually doing a really good job on a state level of social distancing just sets us up for waiting too long to move past it and causing greater pain in the long run.

 

While not surprising, it's also frustrating that of the roughly 1150 confirmed cases to date in MN (about 650 of which are recovered and no longer contagious), at least 300 are medical staff that were infected by treating or being around patients. So about 1/3 of all MN cases are people trying to care for the other 2/3...In my book that's not community transmission in public spaces, although I'm sure that's how they register in databases.

 

Meanwhile there are stories cropping up in states where the increased deaths due to suicides are outpacing Covid-related deaths. Hopefully there will be some modeling done pretty soon on how to flatten that curve.

 

Thanks for bringing facts to my attention, as our governor didn’t seem to give very many of them during the part I caught today. I definitely heard that 30% of the workforce will just continue to collect unemployment PLUS extra money and that YOURE MAKING MORE AT HOME THAN BEING AT WORK. That will surely incentivize people to get back to work. Absolute lunacy golf courses aren’t opening up.

[PeaveyFury]

And you’re certain that every case other than the ones he saw online are like a virus spreading machine? People are in those voting areas for seconds or minutes, and every single one of them had coronavirus on their mind.

 

If this is like every other “coronavirus,” it’s on it’s way out the door shortly, and will be back next winter. Half+ the country will likely be immune by then.

 

I just have the observation of experts to go off of:

 

UW Health official: "Nearly impossible' to maintain social distancing at polls

 

Jeff Pothof, chief quality and safety officer for UW Health in Madison, viewed photographs taken at polling places around the state and was left with two strong, very different impressions.

 

"Boy, I'm somewhat inspired by the people who despite the risks are going out and voting," he said. "However, it's nearly impossible to maintain social distancing throughout the process of going to the polls and voting. You can see some people quite close to each other, some wearing masks, some not.

 

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/04/07/wisconsin-election-news-live-updates-state-news/2960278001/

[igor67]

MN is only testing hospitalizations, which is clearly depressing the numbers at this point. I think the most exciting news of the week was the pilot study out of China on the plasma therapy. It was of course quite small, but was quite positive and it operates on well understood principles and has a track record for other infectious disease. It helps significantly that most people can recover, so there is a potentially large supply to draw on to serve as a treatment. Unlike the completely murky was in which something like chloroquinine might possibly work. Getting to the point there would be a viable therapy is a huge point in favor of caution.

We've all seen how fast it spreads even in the face of some levels of mitigation, so I think without having to be hyper technical most can see how left unchecked it would run it's course quickly and fully. Fully at this point is super easy to calculate. The accepted R factor right now is just under 3. Fully means real herd immunity, the type that you vaccinate your way toward. The percentage of the population you need to achieve herd immunity it 1-1/R. Or in this that means 2/3. So in the US that would be 220 million infected. Our best estimate of the death rate would take into account the highest estimate I've seen of the silent carriers being 50%

So then we are talking 88,000 deaths out of about 3 million cases. or 2.9%

Being even more generous and assuming there are a bunch of under counted mild cases but not completely silent ones we can drop that down to 2% or 4.4 million in the US people need to die to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine or a valid treatment.

 

That works out to 1 death every 7.2 seconds spread over a calendar year compared to the current death rate of from all causes of 1 every 11 seconds.

 

It is a sobering way to look at things because if you can't find a treatment and/or vaccine numbers like that become inevitable.

[JosephC]

I almost broke the limits of my self-imposed quarantine tonight. Nearly went though the Taco Bell drive-through because I'm sick of eating the same old stuff I've been eating at home lately. Surprising part is that I don't even like Taco Bell. I did go to the polls this week (had zero concern about it and I am in my 50's), but other than that it's been a solid month of home/work and groceries just 1 time a week. Getting pretty sick of it. Can't wait for society to open back up.

[JosephC]

Will April 8th go down as the first official day of re-messaging?

 

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https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-09-20/h_d743a046cc1b7cd3c779b96aa7fbee86

 

CDC issues new guidelines for essential workers who have been exposed to coronavirus

From CNN's Jason Hoffman

 

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield issued new guidelines for essential workers who have been exposed to the coronavirus, saying individuals would need to be asymptomatic to return to work.

 

The guidelines, he said, are aimed at keeping essential workers, including first responders, health care workers, employees in the food supply chain and others at work -- even if they might have been exposed to someone who has coronavirus.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

 

Even as the total number of deaths reported each day remains at its highest levels, the number of new novel coronavirus cases in the United States is trending down, according to a major university that tracks figures worldwide.

 

Johns Hopkins University changed the trending status for the United States to "down" on Tuesday night, because of changes in the five-day moving average of new cases. The data could change as more cases are reported.

 

More than 430,000 people in the US have been infected, and more than 14,700 have died.

 

A record 1,858 deaths were reported in just one day Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins.

 

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters Wednesday that there were 779 coronavirus-related deaths across the state Tuesday. It was the highest number of deaths reported in one day by New York officials.

 

Researchers say the peak has yet to come. The US will reach its highest daily number of deaths on or around Sunday, according to modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.

 

The projections also suggest the US will reach its peak use of resources -- such as hospital beds and ventilators -- on or around Saturday.

 

But there's a bit of good news: The modeling shows fewer people will die from coronavirus than previously predicted.