COVID-19 Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

A very interesting and positive thing to track as we roll towards mid-April is how accurate the models used to drive policy decisions are in projecting cases requiring hospitalization....to date, these models have been pretty accurate in number of deaths in various parts of the country, however they have been consistently overestimating # of hospitalizations as we head towards the apparent 1st peak spread of Covid-19 across the country, sometimes to a very large degree. One would think if that continues the future death rate predicted by these models will also start to become less accurate. These models are based on having the measures currently in place happening, so it's not like the lack of actual hospitalizations compared to what the modeling predicted was due to shelter in place happening - it's because the models were wrong, and wrong in a good way since actual outcomes aren't matching modeled predictions.

 

Since the models are updated almost daily, we are seeing death projections start to trend down from where they were even last week for the US, which is fantastic.

[homer]

Which models are you referring to?

[Fear The Chorizo]

U of Wash IHME...a few weeks ago it estimated a need of 240K+ hospitalizations near the virus' peak in the US - its most recent update a couple days ago reduced that estimate to roughly 120K.

 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html

[MrTPlush]

The popular U of Washington model projects we should be needing just under 1k hospital beds in Wisconsin right now. 28% of positive cases have been hospitalized, which is about 690 people. Even if you assumed all those people were still in the hospital (which obviously is not the case or even close for that matter) that is well below the current projection.

 

Annoyingly the U of Washington model doesn’t project # of cases so I’m not sure if we are doing better than expected in the department or if the % of people that are positive going to the hospital is lower than expected.

[homer]

The IHME model is seen as "best case" and it's no wonder that certain people in positions of influence are touting it. A lot of people consider it's assumptions flawed. Namely: The creator of IHME’s model, Christopher Murray, said many state models assume that social distancing will only slow or reduce transmission to some degree. The IHME model, drawing from the example of Wuhan, assumes policies such as social distancing and stay-at-home orders, can effectively reduce transmission to the point where an epidemic — at least in its first wave — is actually brought under control by authorities

 

Best to use multiple models like most states are doing. Even the guy that created IHME agrees: “What we’ve learned from 30 years of weather forecasting, even Netflix predictions for movies … you make better predictions when using multiple models.”

[Samurai Bucky]

When the models end up being inaccurate, there will still be people complaining that they weren't accurate.

 

[sarcasm]Cue weatherperson response... [/sarcasm]

[owbc]

When the models end up being inaccurate, there will still be people complaining that they weren't accurate.

 

[sarcasm]Cue weatherperson response... [/sarcasm]

 

You called???

 

It really is quite similar to a weather model--both are initial value problems and both have a ton of assumptions built into the initial conditions. So in that case you obviously want to use an ensemble--and the more information you get, the more you can narrow the ensemble envelope.

 

Personally I feel like the COVID models have been most useful for figuring out the worst case scenarios. Those exponential growth curves really inspired a bias to action.

[thebruce44]

Many of the wrong people are being blamed and punished though.

 

In Chicago, the mayor shut down all of the walking/running/biking trails in the city along with the parks and playgrounds because of "congregating". In response, people have been asking the mayor to shut down some city streets so that people have room to run/walk/exercise and be able to distance from others. The mayor said she has no plans of shutting down streets, and that she "isn't against exercising, (she's) against congregating.".

 

Is this correct? My family and I just went on a hike this weekend in a City Forest Preserve. I thought it was just the Lakefront, 606, and Riverwalk?

Which one? I don't believe there is such thing as a "city" forest preserve from what I can tell. They may be in Cook County, but they are not in the City of Chicago.

 

Also heard that Waterfall Glen closed off access to non-locals (DuPage County residents only) due to overcrowding coming from the city.

 

You're right, I am mixing up my City vs County Depts. It is Cook County, but it also means that the Mayor has not shut down all trails in the City. Also, at the park near me, which is a City Park, trails are open. I still think it is just 606, Lakefront, and Riverwalk.

[hawing]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around RoCo's statement that Frostie Freeze in Janesville is operating. COME ON, PEOPLE. At least Culver's (and some Dairy Queen locations) offers food that could qualify as an actual meal. *facepalm*

[MrTPlush]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around RoCo's statement that Frostie Freeze in Janesville is operating. COME ON, PEOPLE. At least Culver's (and some Dairy Queen locations) offers food that could qualify as an actual meal. *facepalm*

 

Every ice cream place I know of is open...as is any bakery (like cakes and stuff...not bread). I know of one bakery that was worried of being considered non essential and they started selling eggs and bags of flour as a loophole if they were told to shutdown.

 

I’d blame them, but I don’t know many places voluntarily shutting down. Any other business would do the same if they could.

[Thurston Fluff]

Today someone called us and wanted us to deliver balloons to someone at a nursing home. I said we won't do that. They said it wasn't for someone living there it was for someone coming to work after going through Chemotherapy. I said it isn't wise to send someone who may still have some immunity issues anything right now. They said they weren't worried about that. I said goodbye.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Our ice cream place closed weeks ago by their own choice. I have to admit that if they were open I'd go and get something out of the freezer. I miss it. I got some garbage at WalMart pickup that's just not doing it.

[TURBO]

Today someone called us and wanted us to deliver balloons to someone at a nursing home. I said we won't do that. They said it wasn't for someone living there it was for someone coming to work after going through Chemotherapy. I said it isn't wise to send someone who may still have some immunity issues anything right now. They said they weren't worried about that. I said goodbye.

 

Weren't worried about that?

 

Geez

 

*shaking head*

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around RoCo's statement that Frostie Freeze in Janesville is operating. COME ON, PEOPLE. At least Culver's (and some Dairy Queen locations) offers food that could qualify as an actual meal. *facepalm*

 

Every ice cream place I know of is open...as is any bakery (like cakes and stuff...not bread). I know of one bakery that was worried of being considered non essential and they started selling eggs and bags of flour as a loophole if they were told to shutdown.

 

I’d blame them, but I don’t know many places voluntarily shutting down. Any other business would do the same if they could.

 

The thing is, Frosty Freeze has a drive-thru. They could choose to be drive-thru only and be in compliance but they're not. It's even on Janesville city Facebook page that multiple people have complained to the police and they are going to investigate but if you drive by there they still have walk up crowds on days like today where there are people standing in crowds of 15 and 20 people shoulder to shoulder. I guess it's fine if they don't care about themselves, but they run a very real risk of passing something onto other people that they interact with. If you pick something up at an ice cream store and then go to Walmart and interact with someone stocking shelves or bagging your groceries you're being extraordinarily irresponsible. If you don't care if you die at least understand that other people don't want to.

[FVBrewerFan]

Just take down the 5G towers and be done with this.

[jerichoholicninja]

I have not ventured off my property in weeks but from what I've gathered on Facebook, pretty much everything in my area that should be closed is closed. That being said, I seen the very relevant question been brought up many times, "How much is Walmart paying government officials to close every store in town while they can remain open?" Apparently the parking lot is overflowing daily. Yes, they have essential things like groceries but that is only a small part of the store so they can continue selling things that the now closed non-essential stores were selling. I know there's no perfect solution here but Walmart is getting a huge boost from the government eliminating a lot of their competition.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have not ventured off my property in weeks but from what I've gathered on Facebook, pretty much everything in my area that should be closed is closed. That being said, I seen the very relevant question been brought up many times, "How much is Walmart paying government officials to close every store in town while they can remain open?" Apparently the parking lot is overflowing daily. Yes, they have essential things like groceries but that is only a small part of the store so they can continue selling things that the now closed non-essential stores were selling. I know there's no perfect solution here but Walmart is getting a huge boost from the government eliminating a lot of their competition.

 

So are Amazon, fast food restaurants, and Kimberly Clark. There aren't many winners in all this, but there are some. That's just the way it goes. FWIW Ive been to Walmart a few times and its way less busy than normal. We'll see what their results end up being, but I doubt they're benefiting from this at all.

[nate82]

 

So are Amazon, fast food restaurants, and Kimberly Clark. There aren't many winners in all this, but there are some. That's just the way it goes. FWIW Ive been to Walmart a few times and its way less busy than normal. We'll see what their results end up being, but I doubt they're benefiting from this at all.

 

Amazon at least has more small businesses that they support. Last I saw Amazon is the biggest small business supporter in the US and the majority of the things you can buy on Amazon are actually from small businesses.

 

What is dying are the brick and mortar places this pandemic maybe another nail in the coffin for those types of small businesses.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Just take down the 5G towers and be done with this.

 

Yes.... The 5g towers...

[LouisEly]

You're right, I am mixing up my City vs County Depts. It is Cook County, but it also means that the Mayor has not shut down all trails in the City. Also, at the park near me, which is a City Park, trails are open. I still think it is just 606, Lakefront, and Riverwalk.

Not all of Cook County is Chicago. Chicago makes up only a little over half of the population of Cook County. Evanston, Des Plaines, Palos Heights/Hills/Park, Park Ridge, Orland Park, Park Ridge, and others are all in Cook County but are separate cities. Evanston hasn't closed off their lakefront trail.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I have not ventured off my property in weeks but from what I've gathered on Facebook, pretty much everything in my area that should be closed is closed. That being said, I seen the very relevant question been brought up many times, "How much is Walmart paying government officials to close every store in town while they can remain open?" Apparently the parking lot is overflowing daily. Yes, they have essential things like groceries but that is only a small part of the store so they can continue selling things that the now closed non-essential stores were selling. I know there's no perfect solution here but Walmart is getting a huge boost from the government eliminating a lot of their competition.

 

 

Wal Mart is currently only allowing 5 customers per 1000 square feet of store space, and the Wal Marts I've been in or past in the last few weeks have been pretty quiet/empty. The Wal Mart in Janesville is only allowing people into the grocery, auto, and pet areas. They're not letting you ramble around and shop for clothes and video games and such. I'm not sure if they're doing this elsewhere, but that's how it is here.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I kinda have a hard time believing that the people going to Walmart are buying much of anything other than what they were getting there a month ago. I grocery shop there a lot and still do, and I'm not suddenly buying my clothes and home decor there.

[MrTPlush]

IMHE updated projections. US as a whole is three days from a peak and Wisconsin is only 5 days from a peak (April 13th). IMHE has it virtually done in Wisconsin by May...though my understanding is their model assumes we social distance till June.

 

We will see how this new projection ages. Seems optimistic to be only 3-5 days before this thing starts tailing off for most of the country. But...I suppose social distancing can be a magical thing.

 

I’d be surprised if WalMart is actually doing all that well...or any big box. I think most people aren’t traveling that much for their needs. Normally a lot of people would go out of their way for a big box, but now people just want to stay close to home...not to mention the number of people in a box box store many times. I think our small town grocery store is benefiting more from people not traveling versus the panic buying. Many would take a 25-35 minute drive for a Wal Mart/Target...now they just stay in town. I’m sure the panic buying is nice, but that is a short term spike.

[PeaveyFury]

IMHE updated projections. US as a whole is three days from a peak and Wisconsin is only 5 days from a peak (April 13th). IMHE has it virtually done in Wisconsin by May...though my understanding is their model assumes we social distance till June.

 

We will see how this new projection ages. Seems optimistic to be only 3-5 days before this thing starts tailing off for most of the country. But...I suppose social distancing can be a magical thing.

 

Obviously, I think yesterday's election has the potential to destroy the optimistic projections for Wisconsin....

[MrTPlush]

IMHE updated projections. US as a whole is three days from a peak and Wisconsin is only 5 days from a peak (April 13th). IMHE has it virtually done in Wisconsin by May...though my understanding is their model assumes we social distance till June.

 

We will see how this new projection ages. Seems optimistic to be only 3-5 days before this thing starts tailing off for most of the country. But...I suppose social distancing can be a magical thing.

 

Obviously, I think yesterday's election has the potential to destroy the optimistic projections for Wisconsin....

 

While not beneficial, I think it’s impact won’t really be that relevant. Those polling places aren’t much different than everyone needing to go to the grocery store. Really the way I think of it they are probably way better. Constantly cleaning and wiping things down...lots of hand sanitizer. Most grocery stores probably don’t provide you hand sanitizer and probably wipe things down at the end of each day.

 

Obviously funneling a bunch of people to the polls isn’t the best thing in the world, but for the majority of places the lack of turnout and absentee will really minimize how many were truly going through those places. Pretty sure more hit up the bar for fish fry takeout last Friday than my polling place from the sounds of it. The pictures of Milwaukee are all the rage, but I’m guessing most places didn’t have huge lines (and to be fair those people did social distance).