COVID-19 Thread

[GAME05]

I don't know if it's really Constitutionally ok for the government to force a lawful business to close or to force people to stay in their homes. Obviously great if they do and selfish/irresponsible if the don't, but I'm not so sure government force is acceptable. I'd be cool with public shaming, though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

During a state of emergency yes. Of course again, we can argue what constitutes a state of emergency, and what is essential.

[nate82]

Janesville Police have now begun forcibly closing businesses that have refused to heed the essential business order. I'm sure different people have different feelings about that, but I don't think there's a universe where creative gardening is an essential business.

 

Every business is essential. If it provides a service and people go to it for goods or services it is essential.

 

Unfortunately small business owners can't just close up shop and then hope some magical unicorn comes around and pays their rent/mortgage and then buys them food and other necessities.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I for one am really looking forward to the political gymnastics state and local government officials are going to need to do when pleading for substantial tax increases later this year, right before an election - after they spent the spring basically dictating a complete shutdown of the tax revenue streams from the private sector while continuing their business as usual from a home office.

 

To date, government-funded jobs have largely been exempted from the wide-scale layoffs and furloughs forced onto the private sector - but as the tax revenues coming from shuttered private businesses dwindle to nothing and nonexistent gasoline tax receipts due to limited/no nonessential travel create enormous budget shortfalls everywhere, there's gonna need to be a public employee purge just as the private sector is probably trying to regain footing.

[PeaveyFury]

Janesville Police have now begun forcibly closing businesses that have refused to heed the essential business order. I'm sure different people have different feelings about that, but I don't think there's a universe where creative gardening is an essential business.

 

Every business is essential. If it provides a service and people go to it for goods or services it is essential.

 

This is inherently untrue. There are more than a few comically unnecessary 'services' and 'goods' that you simply don't need to survive.

 

If you don't need it to maintain your health, feed your family, or maintain the safety of your shelter, it's non-essential.

[adambr2]

Janesville Police have now begun forcibly closing businesses that have refused to heed the essential business order. I'm sure different people have different feelings about that, but I don't think there's a universe where creative gardening is an essential business.

 

Every business is essential. If it provides a service and people go to it for goods or services it is essential.

 

This is inherently untrue. There are more than a few comically unnecessary 'services' and 'goods' that you simply don't need to survive.

 

If you don't need it to maintain your health, feed your family, or maintain the safety of your shelter, it's non-essential.

 

You are right, but I think the gray area is bigger than most realize.

 

We obviously need food and gas, but manufacturing is a big part of our supply chain. The paper industry is pretty huge in Wisconsin. We don't need paper for everything, but when you stop and consider the many functions that are essential now -- toilet paper, shipping labels, vial and medicinal labels in hospitals -- it becomes pretty essential.

 

Most gas stations could close and still allow gas sales at the pump. But we can't assume that everyone has access to a credit or debit card.

 

Also, many gas stations like Kwik Trip have basically rebranded themselves as grocery stores/gas stations. I don't think you need liquor stores, but sad as it is to say, if you cut off the alcohol supply in Wisconsin, you're going to have another public health crisis on your hands at the worst possible time.

 

Places like Menards are even worse than normal right now for congestion because you've got too many people trying to get housing projects done while they're stuck at home. And if you have to completely change your sales approach to label yourself essential, (looking at you, Hobby Lobby), you should be closed.

 

Most of the problems could have been remedied with better preparation. No one knew before this month who was essential and who isn't. Every business, large and small, should have their status already on file with their individual state before this even happened as to whether or not they provide essential goods or services in the event of a mass emergency shutdown. And they should have to meet strict criteria to be defined as essential, such as a certain percentage of their manufactured goods or sales being "essential" items, not just be able to throw a few masks on the shelves and call themselves essential.

[FVBrewerFan]

Janesville Police have now begun forcibly closing businesses that have refused to heed the essential business order. I'm sure different people have different feelings about that, but I don't think there's a universe where creative gardening is an essential business.

 

Every business is essential. If it provides a service and people go to it for goods or services it is essential.

 

Unfortunately small business owners can't just close up shop and then hope some magical unicorn comes around and pays their rent/mortgage and then buys them food and other necessities.

 

Yes they can. That magical unicorn is called the SBA.

[Samurai Bucky]

Janesville Police have now begun forcibly closing businesses that have refused to heed the essential business order. I'm sure different people have different feelings about that, but I don't think there's a universe where creative gardening is an essential business.

 

Every business is essential. If it provides a service and people go to it for goods or services it is essential.

 

Unfortunately small business owners can't just close up shop and then hope some magical unicorn comes around and pays their rent/mortgage and then buys them food and other necessities.

 

Yes they can. That magical unicorn is called the SBA.

Um... no it isn't. Just because you sign up for something doesn't mean it is going to be approved. My partner is submitting the forms, but our financial institution needs to do some due diligence. I don't think we will be denied, but that unicorn may not be as magical as implied.

[nate82]

Janesville Police have now begun forcibly closing businesses that have refused to heed the essential business order. I'm sure different people have different feelings about that, but I don't think there's a universe where creative gardening is an essential business.

 

Every business is essential. If it provides a service and people go to it for goods or services it is essential.

 

Unfortunately small business owners can't just close up shop and then hope some magical unicorn comes around and pays their rent/mortgage and then buys them food and other necessities.

 

Yes they can. That magical unicorn is called the SBA.

 

Ummm since when has the SBA allowed for funds to be used for necessities like food and mortgage payments?

[PeaveyFury]

Ummm since when has the SBA allowed for funds to be used for necessities like food and mortgage payments?

 

Since the CARES act was signed into law last Friday. The Paycheck Protection Loan provisions provide funds for payroll expenses to continue paychecks to employees, including the owners.

[stoutdude04]

Wife works for a company that does a lot of work with China. My wife is relatively high up. They had a meeting today with some of their China contacts and they said the virus is starting to make a reappearance/uptick because people went back to doing same old things and not washing or taking precautions. Hopefully it's just a blip because thay would suck.

[DuWayne Steurer]

GameStop is not essential. A garden design center is not essential. There are certainly arguments to me made for and against the merits of capitalism, but those things are not necessary for life.

[Fear The Chorizo]

End of week MN update:

 

789 confirmed cases, up from 742 yesterday...the daily total of new confirmed cases has been steady to dwindling for the last week+. This is based on the 24,000ish tests reported to date. They keep saying many more people have Covid-19 than what have been tested, which I'm sure is true...however if there isn't a pronounced spike in confirmed cases with a gradually increasing testing rate, the assumption of increasing spread starts looking more questionable the longer the state continues shelter in place and social distancing practices, of which MN is now 3 full weeks into implementing.

 

I'm continuing to note that over half of the confirmed cases (410 to date) no longer require isolation - meaning they aren't of concern for requiring hospitalization nor are they a contagious threat to infect other people. This fact is likely relevant in many other states across the country but hardly ever gets discussed when the daily totals are published - even though IMO active/contagious cases are a much more valuable metric to track as time goes by rather than cumulative case totals. 22 people have now died in MN while having Covid-19, essentially all of which were elderly, had preexisting medical issues related to respiratory/immune system weakness, or both. While definitely a factor in what led to their deaths over the past 2-3 weeks instead of those deaths likely being spread out over the next 5 years, Covid-19 was not the sole cause. For perspective, based on the 2013 death rate data and the current estimated population, roughly 124 people die in MN every day without anything to do with coronavirus.

 

After removing deaths and non-contagious/recovered cases in MN, that leaves 310 confirmed active cases that would be considered a health risk to both themselves and to the general public. 86 of those cases are in MN hospitals, with 40 of those in ICU beds. 310 in a state of at least 6 million residents.

 

In this same 3 week time period - roughly 200,000 Minnesotans have filed for unemployment, which also likely underestimates the total number of working age people losing their jobs and having to rely on additional public assistance. That doesn't really account for the disruption of life inflicted on school-age children, particularly those that are hoping to enter college this fall or enter the workforce. The Feds have thrown some money at this to try and assist, but it will be the state governments that wind up bearing the lion's share of public assistance costs this economic shutdown will cause over the long run. My gut tells me as states start looking at the impact all these measures have on their tax revenues over the next month, governors are going to universally declare their states wide open for business again no matter what to try and get revenues coming back into their coffers. There's money in the CARES Act for State & Local program assistance - but not nearly enough to spread across 50 states to avoid massive budget deficits and widespread public sector job losses.

[igor67]

When the schools were closed 3 weeks ago MN and Wisconsin had almost identical numbers of cases. Wisconsin now has more than twice as many. And its not just a testing issue because the death totals are significantly lower in MN than WI. Both states have as far as I can tell basically taken all the same measures at basically identical times. Based on the locations in WI for most of the cases it certainly seems like proximity to Chicago has been a big factor in the difference in pace. What seems for more noteworthy about MN is how well it has seemingly avoided the cases numbers getting into an extended exponential growth phase. Applying your math to the world and you've got about 800,000 active cases to only 225,000 recovered. Yet MN is going slow enough that recovered are out pacing active. That's a rather impressive public health success, one that if they can get enough rapid testing online to do more rapid monitoring, along with a viable antibody test for who has already been exposed could enable MN to fairly rapidly move out of Safer-at-home compared to other locations where the sheer number of stealth infections at this point would lead to a huge resurgence if things are reversed before the actual case numbers go down.

Yet it sounds like you want to snatch defeat from the jaws of a possible victory. As I had said up thread a co-worker of mine was borrowing sterilization equipment for his wife to take to her Twin Cities hospital to help them stretch their masks and other PPE. Even in 3M's home state the shortage of other places in the US is showing up.

[igor67]

Add on thought I had seen a news story this morning from Reuters and someone had gotten around to using the method we will probably end up using as our starting point for getting final Covid numbers, or at least how we will estimation corrections. Namely just looking at the current total deaths vs. recent historic numbers for this time of year. The numbers for the various Italian states looked to be an overall death rate 2-3 times higher than normal. I wouldn't be surprised if New York is getting to that point. That rate over an entire year in the US would be 2.4-4.8 million deaths (not going to happen, but in line with the worst case scenario, do nothing estimates) and for an entire month that gets you about 240,000

[PeaveyFury]

The Governor called a special session of the legislature to move the election today, and the legislature responded saying they won’t move it.

 

Hope you like super long quarantines!

[jerichoholicninja]

What a great time to have nice spring weather for the first time in forever. People are going to start spending more time outside and eventually congregating together in parks and backyards no matter what the "rules" are. Are police going to start breaking up these gatherings? You've got people that hate the government in general and especially now because of locking everything down and people that hate the police. I foresee lots of bad situations unfolding.

[JosephC]

In this same 3 week time period - roughly 200,000 Minnesotans have filed for unemployment, which also likely underestimates the total number of working age people losing their jobs and having to rely on additional public assistance. That doesn't really account for the disruption of life inflicted on school-age children, particularly those that are hoping to enter college this fall or enter the workforce. The Feds have thrown some money at this to try and assist, but it will be the state governments that wind up bearing the lion's share of public assistance costs this economic shutdown will cause over the long run. My gut tells me as states start looking at the impact all these measures have on their tax revenues over the next month, governors are going to universally declare their states wide open for business again no matter what to try and get revenues coming back into their coffers. There's money in the CARES Act for State & Local program assistance - but not nearly enough to spread across 50 states to avoid massive budget deficits and widespread public sector job losses.

 

Ding, Ding, Ding. Right answer.

 

I work for a big corporation that implemented a coronavirus code about a month ago for assigning hours. If you are sick, stay home and you will get paid. If someone in your household is sick, stay home and you will be paid. If you can't find someone to take care of your kids now that schools are closed, stay home and you will be paid.

 

For the record, the last weekday I had off was MLK day, I've been at work (not remotely, at work) through this entire deal.

 

Yesterday the e-mail came out, no coronavirus code. If you are sick, use your vacation time. If you have to stay home and take care of your kids, use your vacation time. If you don't have any vacation time, well then you and your boss has to figure it out but best case scenario is that you go into negative vacation time (meaning you don't get any new vacation time).

 

I would strongly suspect that pretty much all big companies will adopt this as they look at their bottom line.

 

And I believe all levels of government will support that. By now they know that capital gains tax revenue will probably be non-existent over the next couple of years. Income taxes will definitely be down. All that revenue they would get from businesses that they shut down goes down to nothing. Public employees still need to be paid. Roads still need to be built. Demands for individuals and private businesses will be up.

 

I'm just a working slob like most other people. But I look at the reality of the situation. I just don't see how it's feasible for everyone to go live under a rock for 6 months.

 

If any of the mods think I've crossed the political line here, please let me know and I'll delete the post and apologize.

[DuWayne Steurer]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/grim-new-rules-for-nyc-paramedics-dont-bring-cardiac-arrests-to-er-for-revival/2356265/

 

Stay home. This is bad.

[superfly]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/grim-new-rules-for-nyc-paramedics-dont-bring-cardiac-arrests-to-er-for-revival/2356265/

 

Stay home. This is bad.

 

This is sensationalit (and i don’t mean great) journalism. This type of journalism is why we are in a panic. My reading of this is very little has changed. 20 minutes of CPR and then make the call.

 

General procedures dictate that patients are usually only transported to a hospital once the patient has a pulse again. If no pulse is found, the general procedure is to reach out to a group called medical control, a group of doctors who are on call to offer assistance, for a decision as to whether or not they can pronounce a patient dead on the scene or take them to the hospital, Schenker said. The memo eliminates that step, unless a medical control physician provides a direct order to bring the patient to the hospital.

 

REMAC is the group that develops, approves and implements prehospital treatment and protocols for EMS providers in NYC.

 

The director of communications for the New York State Health Department Jonah Bruno, said the department "has not issued, or approved, any such guidance but we are working with EMS providers throughout the state to ensure the health and safety of all New Yorkers, as we mount a coordinated response to the Covid-19 pandemic."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/new-york-hospital-cardiac-arrest-patients-memo/index.html

[DuWayne Steurer]

I *personally* went 8 days without being able to get my seizure meds refilled because my doctor wasn't able to be in his office, and his nurse was working clinics and was not able to take my calls to refill my prescription. Being without seizure meds for 8 days was not just inconvenient, it was dangerous. I had my April 14th neurology appointment cancelled (not rescheduled, cancelled) specifically due to Corona virus concerns and backups. Do you think I'm the only person this kind of stuff is happening to? There are people who NEED medical attention who aren't getting it *because* people aren't staying at home and are taxing the healthcare system. But by all means, keep calling it an overreaction and sensationalism.....

[nodakfan17]

The Governor of New York says he’ll seize ventilators from private hospitals and companies upstate. What happens when the Coronavirus spreads to those areas? Do you think NYC will send the ventilators back?

[igor67]

Other than the headline containing the word grim what in there is sensationalist? They are altering procedures to ration care. That is not business as usual. It is debatable whether it is the most troubling news about the situation in NYC, I would say the presence of both the army hospital, navy hospital ship, and 3rd world international relief agency are more troubling. Yet the prose in the story is pretty boring, lacking in inflammatory metaphor, so what is the sensationalist part?

[MrTPlush]

We aren’t NYC and won’t get even close to what they are going through.

[adambr2]

Are there any areas in the world where widespread infection has occurred that were NOT in densely populated urban areas?

 

Not arguing at all with any side, just honestly curious as to whether there is precedent of wide spread to sparsely populated rural areas where areas that this hasn't really taken foot in like the Northwoods should take note of.