COVID-19 Thread

[et bbal]

I was at Aldis today. Milk - gone. Produce - close to completely empty. Bread 3 loafs remaining. Meat - limited. Frozen meats -empty. I was there Friday and no toilet paper, but everything else was fine. They had a sign limiting people to 4 of any canned good. Kind of crazy. The only thing that I thought was well stocked was corned beef and cabbage. My Tuesday meal was salvaged.

[LouisEly]

All the simulations I've seen suggest that the 'walled' quarantine (blocking off a group of people or geographic area) as you suggest fail to flatten the curve as well as social distancing does. I'm assuming they're using those simulations to enact what is projected to work best as a result.

My understanding is that flattens the curve for spreading the virus to everyone, not the high risk people.

 

My question is, what flattens the curve for the high risk people while having minimal effect on the overall economy? What's worse for society as a whole, millions of people losing their jobs unnecessarily or millions of young, healthy people getting a mild viral infection?

[MrTPlush]

This article was pretty cool with some dot simulations.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

[DuWayne Steurer]

This article was pretty cool with some dot simulations.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

 

That actually was a good article, and shows why shutting down large gatherings (sporting events) is more helpful than quarantines.

[PeaveyFury]

All the simulations I've seen suggest that the 'walled' quarantine (blocking off a group of people or geographic area) as you suggest fail to flatten the curve as well as social distancing does. I'm assuming they're using those simulations to enact what is projected to work best as a result.

My understanding is that flattens the curve for spreading the virus to everyone, not the high risk people.

 

True. But I think the point is (and the Washington Post article illustrates as well) is that most of us are going to get it at some point, even if we cordon off the vulnerable for a while.

[stoutdude04]

Update, my district has now shutdown starting tomorrow. I still have to go in Tuesday to prep and our first distant learning day is thursday. Then it's a week plus of spring break then a week of distance learning.

[pacopete4]

My district took this week off and then we have our spring break week. After that, we have two weeks (as of now) of online learning. It will be very interesting to see how all of this works.

[wildcat83]

Couple points since there is a school staff portion of the thread.

 

We are going M-W with staff reporting Thurs and Fri.

 

The state has not said that they would lower the minutes requirement yet, to essentially waive the lost time. Hence, it’s tough to make staff report all the off days. If you bring the staff in every day, and the state happens to make the time be made up, then your going over your contracted days and would have to pay an over load. It’s not likely the state makes all the time be made up, but without them officially announcing it, schools almost can’t risk that expense. You will get time off until the state announces a shorter year is officially allowed.

 

Online learning only counts toward your minimum minutes requirement if all students are accommodated. That means all special ed IEP accommodations are met for every student. Rural or high poverty districts have no chance of meeting that. Some students don’t have internet access at home, and special ed accommodations are almost impossible to meet online. Your district can essentially offer enrichment online, but required and graded material online gets real far into grey area. Some private school populations would work. Very very few public districts can meet full online requirements for all students.

[TURBO]

It's going to be a mess, that is for sure...

[jerichoholicninja]

The school year is done. I don't see any way it's not. Going into summer just isn't an option. Between the hot weather and the farm and tourism jobs you just can't do it. But how in the heck do you make up for almost 3 lost months? I think you have to just move on and head into the 20-21 year. Whenever that may even start.

[stoutdude04]

Couple points since there is a school staff portion of the thread.

 

We are going M-W with staff reporting Thurs and Fri.

 

The state has not said that they would lower the minutes requirement yet, to essentially waive the lost time. Hence, it’s tough to make staff report all the off days. If you bring the staff in every day, and the state happens to make the time be made up, then your going over your contracted days and would have to pay an over load. It’s not likely the state makes all the time be made up, but without them officially announcing it, schools almost can’t risk that expense. You will get time off until the state announces a shorter year is officially allowed.

 

Online learning only counts toward your minimum minutes requirement if all students are accommodated. That means all special ed IEP accommodations are met for every student. Rural or high poverty districts have no chance of meeting that. Some students don’t have internet access at home, and special ed accommodations are almost impossible to meet online. Your district can essentially offer enrichment online, but required and graded material online gets real far into grey area. Some private school populations would work. Very very few public districts can meet full online requirements for all students.

 

I thought the state shutdown starts Wednesday?

[rickh150]

At what point will interstates be closed to regular joes? My guess is this week. Everyone but emergency vehicles and semis would be my guess. If leaders truly want to keep peopke at home or in their communities, this would be one way. Sad. Yet it's logical.

[Outlander]

Hopefully never, driving is one thing you can do safely.

[MrTPlush]

Federal government won't even let it's own workers stay home to work...you are sadly mistaken if you think they are shutting down roads any time soon.

[wildcat83]

Couple points since there is a school staff portion of the thread.

 

We are going M-W with staff reporting Thurs and Fri.

 

The state has not said that they would lower the minutes requirement yet, to essentially waive the lost time. Hence, it’s tough to make staff report all the off days. If you bring the staff in every day, and the state happens to make the time be made up, then your going over your contracted days and would have to pay an over load. It’s not likely the state makes all the time be made up, but without them officially announcing it, schools almost can’t risk that expense. You will get time off until the state announces a shorter year is officially allowed.

 

Online learning only counts toward your minimum minutes requirement if all students are accommodated. That means all special ed IEP accommodations are met for every student. Rural or high poverty districts have no chance of meeting that. Some students don’t have internet access at home, and special ed accommodations are almost impossible to meet online. Your district can essentially offer enrichment online, but required and graded material online gets real far into grey area. Some private school populations would work. Very very few public districts can meet full online requirements for all students.

 

I thought the state shutdown starts Wednesday?

 

It starts on Wednesday night, I think it's officially 5:00 or 5:30 PM. Schools can still be in session on Wednesday.

[adambr2]

So the current US numbers that I've seen are:

 

3,837 total cases, of which 70 are deceased, and 73 are recovered.

 

So 3,694 current cases, of which 3,682 are considered mild, and 12 are considered to be either serious or critical.

 

Can someone tell me what I am missing here? I assume the number of cases will continue to rise, but a lot of that is simply due to more frequent testing. Anyone who had coronavirus in the US back in January simply would have never known.

 

12 total people hospitalized nationally from COVID-19 right now would not even put a tiny dent in our healthcare system. Even as the number of infected continues to rise, it seems that almost every new case found is a mild case. Obviously the 12 will rise but if the proportion of critical/serious cases continues to fall behind the number of total cases, the mortality rate of COVID-19 will plummet. 12 already seems incredibly low in proportion considering that one would assume that the vast majority of people tested are being tested simply because they have been symptomatic enough to get tested.

 

Please know I am not trying to downplay the affect that this has had on people's lives and any event in which human lives are lost is tragic. I am just trying to gain some understanding based on how the situation is evolving on what is different -- why is this different than other coronaviruses or seasonal diseases. I'm sure there are some more educated on this than I on how that can be answered.

[PeaveyFury]

I think the issue is that we're basically at the point right now where the growth curve spiked exponentially elsewhere in looking at the historical charts. It's really a week or two where we hold our breath to see whether the steps taken thus far keep us on a flatter curve, or whether things spike uncontrollably.

 

Again, just my opinion, but I think there are going to be pockets (I'm looking at you, New Orleans) where measures have been lax and you'll see absurd growth, while the overall numbers remain somewhat restrained.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the issue is that we're basically at the point right now where the growth curve spiked exponentially elsewhere in looking at the historical charts. It's really a week or two where we hold our breath to see whether the steps taken thus far keep us on a flatter curve, or whether things spike uncontrollably.

 

Again, just my opinion, but I think there are going to be pockets (I'm looking at you, New Orleans) where measures have been lax and you'll see absurd growth, while the overall numbers remain somewhat restrained.

 

Your guess is pretty much reflected in this expert's scenario. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-may-make-millions-of-americans-sick-but-we-only-have-about-100000-ventilators/

 

Article also goes into the problem we are potentially facing and why it's different.

 

There are some people leaning way too hard into the US stats right now to gauge the seriousness. They are thought to be weeks behind reality and only painting a very small part of the picture.

[homer]

I think the issue is that we're basically at the point right now where the growth curve spiked exponentially elsewhere in looking at the historical charts. It's really a week or two where we hold our breath to see whether the steps taken thus far keep us on a flatter curve, or whether things spike uncontrollably.

 

Again, just my opinion, but I think there are going to be pockets (I'm looking at you, New Orleans) where measures have been lax and you'll see absurd growth, while the overall numbers remain somewhat restrained.

 

Your guess is pretty much reflected in this expert's scenario. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-may-make-millions-of-americans-sick-but-we-only-have-about-100000-ventilators/

 

Article also goes into the problem we are potentially facing and why it's different.

 

There are some people leaning way too hard into the US stats right now to gauge the seriousness. They are thought to be weeks behind reality and only painting a very small part of the picture.

 

Even so, US cases are doubling every 2 - 3 days. Won't take long to get to a really big number.

[adambr2]

I guess my question was more geared toward whether or not we may have drastically overestimated the lethality and number of potential hospitalized of this. I don't question that the total infected is going to be far more than our current numbers. If you tested every American today I wouldn't be surprised if 500,000 came back positive.

[PeaveyFury]

I guess my question was more geared toward whether or not we may have drastically overestimated the lethality and number of potential hospitalized of this. I don't question that the total infected is going to be far more than our current numbers. If you tested every American today I wouldn't be surprised if 500,000 came back positive.

 

I think the question is more appropriate if the hospital system becomes taxed. It's easier to keep a number down when you don't have hospital beds in tents outside a hospital like in Italy.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I guess my question was more geared toward whether or not we may have drastically overestimated the lethality and number of potential hospitalized of this. I don't question that the total infected is going to be far more than our current numbers. If you tested every American today I wouldn't be surprised if 500,000 came back positive.

 

I'm pretty sure the models definitely overestimate the lethality of something like this, because they are always geared towards a worst case scenario assuming little/no preventative measures are undertaken. In a country like China where there are 1.5 billion people, to only have 80 some thousand cases of a disease this contagius is a joke considering they went weeks and weeks before imposing any sort of social distancing crackdown. I'd guess the actual number of Chinese that were infected with the virus was probably 20 or even 50x that 80,000 number - it's just that the masses that never showed signs or only showed mild symptoms were never tested or ever counted.

 

An exploding denominator of the general population infected coupled with decreasing fatality/hospitalization rates should lead to an adjustment on how governments are quarantining overall populations more quickly than some people are estimating. IMO there should be a push to isolate/protect the elderly and medically fragile populations while gradually phasing things back to normal otherwise. I'm thinking once we are into early April, there's going to be a ton of public pressure to lift many of these restrictions for the general public, if they haven't already started getting lifted.

[adambr2]

I guess my question was more geared toward whether or not we may have drastically overestimated the lethality and number of potential hospitalized of this. I don't question that the total infected is going to be far more than our current numbers. If you tested every American today I wouldn't be surprised if 500,000 came back positive.

 

I think the question is more appropriate if the hospital system becomes taxed. It's easier to keep a number down when you don't have hospital beds in tents outside a hospital like in Italy.

 

True. I have to wonder how many of the 2,000+ dead in Italy are dead because they got coronavirus and died in spite of care, and how many of them are dead because they got coronavirus, couldn't get adequate care, and died.

[stoutdude04]

I guess my question was more geared toward whether or not we may have drastically overestimated the lethality and number of potential hospitalized of this. I don't question that the total infected is going to be far more than our current numbers. If you tested every American today I wouldn't be surprised if 500,000 came back positive.

 

I think the question is more appropriate if the hospital system becomes taxed. It's easier to keep a number down when you don't have hospital beds in tents outside a hospital like in Italy.

 

True. I have to wonder how many of the 2,000+ dead in Italy are dead because they got coronavirus and died in spite of care, and how many of them are dead because they got coronavirus, couldn't get adequate care, and died.

 

That was my thought as well. I think that's why we are seeing such a push for social distancing.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Well if you believe that the problem is getting inadequate care, you should be concerned about the US because the healthcare system is taxed on a regular day. In the article above, the county they used had 21 available beds in 32 facilities before the pandemic struck. It's not going to take an insane number of cases to tax the US healthcare system.