COVID-19 Thread

[yourout]

Fauci says we're a few weeks away from opening up things again as a society in this country. He says the big thing is the availability of the 5-13 minute COVID-19 test. Once that gets ramped up and pretty much allows for easy and immediate testing, that should really help things.

 

Coming from the guy who says 200k are going to die from this in our country?

 

Can leaders decide if they want to be optimistic or use scare tactics?

It won't be eradicated in a couple of weeks - there will still be cases and deaths. It's that if they can ramp up production of the new faster tests (Abbott Labs said they can make 50K/day IIRC, not sure about others) and find/isolate those who have it, it will go a long way towards slowing it to the point where the infections won't overwhelm the hospital system and we can start resuscitating the economy.

 

If the US averages 50 deaths a day per state across all 50 states (more in some states, less in others), over the next two weeks that's 35,000 deaths by Easter. Doesn't take long to add up.

 

If you can only get COVID-19 once then an antibody test to detect those that have had it would be a huge help in determining who can go back to work.

I know the jury is still out on that one though.

[superfly]

I'd like to see a country where this is on the decline to at least get a template for our expectations. Spain and Italy are in the same boat now and Italy seems to have peaked around 800-900 deaths per day, but I have no idea how much to trust that data if they're being completely overwhelmed and unable to keep up with the data.

 

I don't really trust any numbers from Iran or China. I have a really hard time believing that a country of 1.4 billion who was at the front and center of this all really just has a dozen or so new cases a day now while everyone else is well in the thousands.

 

Japan is on the other end of the spectrum. Low testing, low cases. Speculations about a TB vaccine they get could be providing an immunity, Australia’s trying the drug in 4,000 patients now I guess.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd like to see a country where this is on the decline to at least get a template for our expectations. Spain and Italy are in the same boat now and Italy seems to have peaked around 800-900 deaths per day, but I have no idea how much to trust that data if they're being completely overwhelmed and unable to keep up with the data.

 

I don't really trust any numbers from Iran or China. I have a really hard time believing that a country of 1.4 billion who was at the front and center of this all really just has a dozen or so new cases a day now while everyone else is well in the thousands.

 

Japan is on the other end of the spectrum. Low testing, low cases. Speculations about a TB vaccine they get could be providing an immunity, Australia’s trying the drug in 4,000 patients now I guess.

 

Funny how Japan's cases are starting to mushroom just days after they finally decided to postpone the summer Olympics. It's almost like they were intentionally suppressing cases to try and act like they had it totally under control...

 

It's more like low testing so the number of cases doesn't increase like everywhere else.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I thought this was a pretty good article explaining how various countries are posting different overall case and death rate totals due to testing limitations, and how many of the current tracking databases (Johns Hopkins, for example) just throw out raw numbers that come from a wide array of countries/services. Also, it makes a very good distinction between identifying the number of people who died primarily due to being infected with Covid-19 versus the number of people who were so medically frail that contracting ANY kind of respiratory illiness would likely lead to their death or require significant medical treatment.

 

https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/

 

And there is no point anymore to look at what China supposedly did to limit the outbreak in their own country, because their numbers are completely false. When Wuhan funeral homes are getting 2,500-3,500 urns shipped to them per day, China's nationwide death total of roughly 3,500 and claims they kept overall cases under 100K are a complete joke. When the dust starts settling on this, there is going to be TONS of pressure from the rest of the world to accurately determine who patient 0 was back in China and also determine how they became infected and started transmitting the disease. There are too many parallels between when this virus first started surfacing in China and the height of the current trade/tariff war that resulted in the Phase 1 agreement in mid December 2019 not to get accurate details - my gut tells me the two aren't linked by nefarious actions, but China's repeated pattern of lies and current push to shift the narrative as them being a global leader in how to manage the disease should give them absolutely no benefit of the doubt.

[adambr2]

Can someone explain to me any good reason why golf courses should be closed?

 

Golf is about the most solitary sport possible. Mitigation for any contact is easy --

 

1) Walkers only

2) No clubhouse access, payments only over the phone or online

3) No beverage access, carry ons allowed (no alcohol)

 

You have to balance the situation with the need for something for people to have right now for morale, and golf would be an easy way to do that without increasing risk.

[brwrsfan]

Can someone explain to me any good reason why golf courses should be closed?

 

Golf is about the most solitary sport possible. Mitigation for any contact is easy --

 

1) Walkers only

2) No clubhouse access, payments only over the phone or online

3) No beverage access, carry ons allowed (no alcohol)

 

You have to balance the situation with the need for something for people to have right now for morale, and golf would be an easy way to do that without increasing risk.

 

I would have to agree with this. Don't really get it - even if you allowed one person per cart it would be fine (would need to sanitize them, but that's doable) or just limit it to walkers. The rest...yeah, I don't get how golfing is banned, but fishing is not. I saw boats with multiple people in them, lines and people waiting to launch boats and whatnot. How is that ok but 2 guys walking around a golf course (and easily keeping 6 feet apart the whole time) is a problem?

[LouisEly]

Fishing could be argued as a food source.

 

Some courses in Iowa are opening, but they aren't putting out flags or ball washers and they're raising cups so that people can pull their ball out without touching anything else.

 

But the way the weather has been, I don't think that many people would want to be out right now anyway. On principle, though, I agree - I'd love to walk a course right now. But the way I play doesn't really boost my morale...

[owbc]

They are reporting that we got the R0 down from 2.7 to 1.4 in Seattle. Remote work has been going on for 3 weeks now, 2 weeks of social distancing, and 1 week of the really strong restrictions. As this point I'm thinking we will successfully fight off the worst case scenario. But who knows how we are going to phase things back in without it spreading like wildfire again. When it gets a little warmer maybe coffee shops and restaurants with outdoor seating can reopen or something.

[LouisEly]

They are reporting that we got the R0 down from 2.7 to 1.4 in Seattle. Remote work has been going on for 3 weeks now, 2 weeks of social distancing, and 1 week of the really strong restrictions. As this point I'm thinking we will successfully fight off the worst case scenario. But who knows how we are going to phase things back in without it spreading like wildfire again. When it gets a little warmer maybe coffee shops and restaurants with outdoor seating can reopen or something.

With expanded testing, once the rapid tests increase the ability to identify who has it and who doesn't we can begin to selectively isolate and not blanket shut everything down. Hopefully there is more than one manufacturer of the rapid tests, as Abbott Labs said that they can make 50K per day. Will need a lot more than that.

[brwrsfan]

I guess technically people could say they're going to eat the fish, but I'd say 98% of people out fishing have no intention or desire to do that. I could be wrong, but I rarely see it. I know how to clean fish...absolutely hate it. But I guess it could be justified, it's just that I don't see the harm in letting people on golf course using the measures we've outlined.

[MrTPlush]

Wuhan residents think the Chinese numbers are garbage (reported 2,500 deaths in that city). While information is tough to figure out over there they say funeral homes and cremation centers have been going non stop 24/7. One funeral home reportedly got two shipment equaling 10k urns in a two day period. Most believe the death toll was more accurately in the 40k range. They believe they are paying hush money to quiet families.

 

So yah, seems China is hiding the real death toll and infected rates. Not shocking, but the residents over there certainly feel that way.

[nate82]

China's numbers are completely wrong and inaccurate. Their deat numbers only include patients that died from the virus and if they had any other symptoms beforehand like the flu or a respiratory issue those are not counted in their numbers also.

 

Basically just throw away China's, Russia's and Iran's numbers as they are all inaccurate. I believe all three countries have stopped testing for the virus.

[nate82]

Golf courses and hiking trails are open in Arizona even though we went on lockdown today and those are staying open it looks like.

[HiAndTight]

 

I don't really trust any numbers from Iran or China.

 

100% this.

 

They never tell the truth about anything, ANYTHING! Why anyone would believe them now is beyond me.

 

Of course their numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, they're also an authoritarian regime, so it's a lot easier for them to stop the morons like we have having coronavirus parties and whatnot.

[HiAndTight]

Full quote: Dr. Anthony Fauci says there could potentially be between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths related to the coronavirus and millions of cases. “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target, that you could so easily be wrong,” he adds.

 

He's not being optimistic or trying to scare anyone. He's telling the truth.

 

 

He also said that he thinks there will be another big outbreak in the US coming this Fall BUT that we'll be more better prepared for it.

 

That's essentially what happened with the Spanish Flu. It was bad the first Spring, bottomed out the ensuing Summer, the following Fall was the deadliest time period and then that following spring was worse than the previous spring but not as bad as that fall. Obviously things are much-much different now than they were in 1918-1920, but I'd imagine we're going to be dealing with this to some degree for much longer than anyone anticipated a few months ago.

[superfly]

Fauci says we're a few weeks away from opening up things again as a society in this country. He says the big thing is the availability of the 5-13 minute COVID-19 test. Once that gets ramped up and pretty much allows for easy and immediate testing, that should really help things.

 

Coming from the guy who says 200k are going to die from this in our country?

 

Can leaders decide if they want to be optimistic or use scare tactics?

 

Full quote: Dr. Anthony Fauci says there could potentially be between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths related to the coronavirus and millions of cases. “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target, that you could so easily be wrong,” he adds.

 

He's not being optimistic or trying to scare anyone. He's telling the truth.

 

Is he really though? Or is he using misguided (and via the source) bad information?

 

As far as I know, Fauci is loosely using Neil Ferguson’s predictions using old flu models, which are proving to be hogwash and perhaps disingenuous. He has already walked it back from overrun hospitals and 500,000 UK deaths to 20,000. Ferguson has a track record of blowing disease numbers out of proportion prior to this event.

 

Sorry to be skeptical, and once again will say this is a serious issue, but we really need to evaluate how we’re handling this in my opinion.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/worst-case-coronavirus-science-11585351059

[MrTPlush]

The Today show this morning: "The death toll has now surpassed the amount of people that died in the September 11th terrorist attacks." What a absolutely terrible and idiotic thing to say. Whoever came up with that quote should be fired.

 

It is incredibly annoying and frustrating the lack of coverage on RECOVERED cases. It is all about deaths and positive cases. Wisconsin DHS doesn't track recovered cases on their site at all...at least no where easily found that I can see. Sheboygan, for example, has 10 positive cases. However 6/10 (60%) are recovered leaving them with only 4 active cases. Feel like that should be pretty relevant information being tracked and easy to find.

 

I think another outbreak in the Fall is likely, but I also think it is likely the world will come up with a vaccine and/or antiviral drug by then. It takes long to do those things, but this is the focus of the entire world so I think it will be figured out faster than usual. We will see how bad it is, but I don't think these shutdowns will even be a consideration.

 

Virginia is now shutdown till June 10th. Seems borderline insane to go that far out. Small businesses might as well close shop now, I guess they don't have to keep hoping for things to open up in a few weeks constantly. Just terrible.

[adambr2]

Agreed, comparing COVID-19 to 9-11 is an obnoxious and pointless apples to oranges comparison.

 

Also agree that the world is going to be much better prepared for this in the fall. I think a vaccine is still probably out til 2021, but we should have pretty effective treatments, extra medical supplies and much greater access to testing.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Is he really though? Or is he using misguided (and via the source) bad information?

 

As far as I know, Fauci is loosely using Neil Ferguson’s predictions using old flu models,

 

What are you basing your "as far as I know" assumption on?

[homer]

Ferguson did not "walk back" his model.

 

 

The original model was if no controls were put in place.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree that the "walking back" portion of that post is nonsense but am I starting to think the re-evaluation of things is necessary or will be soon. There are companies that may not ever recover from the steps we've taken. Like a Kohl's, for example, that was already experiencing a slow bleed. Two months of store closures will absolutely cripple them. They will lose loyalists who found some other place to shop like Amazon or Target, and will be so badly in the red they'll have no choice but fire hundreds if not thousands of people. They were probably headed there anyway but this has likely expedited all of that by years. That's just one place but there will be many others like it.

 

I have no idea how you quantify this but at some point you really are doing more harm. People who are under no threat of losing a job tend to have a hard time empathizing with that. I don't know what the right move is, but the side that's hollering at everything to stay closed indefinitely is not really acknowledging that there is another side to this.

[MrTPlush]

Yahoo front page header: "Coronavirus Updates: Death Toll in U.S. surpasses initial fatalities in 9/11 attacks."

 

How does such a headline start trending for multiple media outlets? Scare tactics is all the media knows how to use. They can even stoop as low as bringing up a terrorist attack for comparison. We aren't even 25% of the way to the amount of flu deaths this country sees per year and that is dangerous to small kids.

[SoCalBrewfan]

As far as I know, Fauci is loosely using Neil Ferguson’s predictions using old flu models, which are proving to be hogwash and perhaps disingenuous.

 

Disingenuous? Are you seriously suggesting that he's deliberately misleading people? To what end, exactly? What does someone like Fauci gain from this? The nature of the disease, the lag between exposure and symptoms, and the exponential growth function, is that nothing turns into small increases turns into large increases in what seems like an unexpected way...and humans are collectively bad at planning for and responding to this sort of thing. Warning people of what is to come if no action is taken is literally the guy's job, and I think it's appalling to suggest that he is being disingenuous.

 

There are a lot of models with parameters that are not well understood, it is an emerging phenomenon and this is to be expected. More importantly, the models will change when behavior changes...the initial predictions of what would happen if nothing was done are now obsolete, but new and updated models still suggest that ending distancing prematurely, or taking no steps as some governors are still insisting upon, will have very serious risks. Health care professionals are literally putting their lives on the line to treat people and we haven't seen the worst of this yet.

[burnzy24]

I have no idea how you quantify this but at some point you really are doing more harm. People who are under no threat of losing a job tend to have a hard time empathizing with that. I don't know what the right move is, but the side that's hollering at everything to stay closed indefinitely is not really acknowledging that there is another side to this.

 

You are basically arguing additional job losses or future businesses closing is a worse outcome than less people dying. The best case scenario from the White House is likely 200,000 dead Americans by the end of this. What do you think that number will be if we just go back to normal? You are also assuming that people will just return to normal behavior during an active pandemic. My wife has asthma and if that means I go out only for groceries, shop online and occasionlly get take out for as long as it takes then so be it. The market was on good footing prior to the virus and will likely rebound, albeit slowly, once the virus is more controlled, even if this last until the summer. Something that will would make more sense would be to allow individuals who have already built up antibodies to the virus to return back to normal as long as they are not at risk to transmit the disease . This would provide a boost until a treatment or vaccine is developed. But I'm not sure when that test will be available or of one is even possible

[igor67]

Technical communication is really hard, as in peer reviewed research in any relevant field should make you pessimistic communication is even possible. This in itself of course a great simplification (which can alternately be read as somewhat wrong). A big part of the reason it ends up being difficult is that there are multiple causes. 3 big ones that are most relevant at the moment would be lack of background knowledge, bias, impatience.

 

1) Impatience- most people don't want to learn everything they would need to learn to fully become an expert on the topic. This is actually reasonable given how much time that actually takes

 

2) Background knowledge- What is the proper level of detail when your audience is going to have statistics PhDs and folks who passed high school algebra with a merciful D? This is very crucial when paired with the above because in a very important way every technical question I would love to be answered in a news cast I also recognize that is has a large potential to confuse other parts of the audience or worse become the tiny detail that gets focused on by folks who aren't prepared to digest all of the information.

 

3) Bias- While political bias is an obvious potential issue, what actually comes out more often in the research is that other underlying differences in personality, beliefs, and education are much more of a cause of how people interact with technical information.

 

Based on that I'd give CBS and ABC a solid B on there reporting. For example while 9-11 and Covid-19 are radically different tragedies the point of the comparison is actually to try and give emotional context for people who don't do well with numbers. As a scientist I hate that type of sloppy comparison, but as a teacher I've learned sometimes that is the way to go in communicating an essential message.

 

The detail that Ferguson's model was a worst case scenario was reasonably well reported. So I'm not seeing anything to be skeptical about particularly when I have not seen more than passing hedged (read typical science speak) references to it by media or doctors. It was pretty clear from the get to me at least we should be able to do better than that since at least some individual states started implementing policies to avoid it.

 

Could news reports have dissected the model on air? Sure, but there are plenty of highly relevant factors that were and still are completely unknown. Like what measures would be implemented? Will the virus be seasonal? When will treatments be discovered? How effective will the treatments be? What are the real risk factors? How many people have stealth/ mild infections? Any one of those can radically alter the final death toll. So diving into the details really complicates the discussion and is likely to obscure a simple necessary message: without direct serious action people will die on a massive scale.

 

With significant steps, but poorly coordinated at a national level action we have hospitals in cool zones anticipating running out of supplies without action in a week. We are actually loaning a sterilizing UV light and gloves to a place in MN, which has been hit less hard than Wisconsin. Multiple hotspots around the country that are is serious disaster mode, and New York which has now mobilized the army and navy and is benefiting from NGOs like it's a 3rd world country. If you somehow missed that news that literally means they are setting up hospital tents to deal with the influx of patients. It may have come to some of this in any event, but many things could have happened a week or more earlier than they did to prepare. Items that would have had little economic impact and just represent planning.