COVID-19 Thread

[PeaveyFury]

I think he's talking about working from home and an employer telling you to get childcare. Not bringing kids to work.

 

Oh ok. Yeah as far as I'm concerned, if your employer is allowing you to work from home, it's none of their business what I'm doing with my kids as long as I'm productive and meeting job requirements.

 

Thanks, this is exactly my point, expressed more clearly. If I'm not letting stuff fall through, why should it matter?

[stoutdude04]

 

How is everyone’s school doing online learning? I guess my local district is having kids in elementary only hand in one math worksheet and do some minor reading. They also have other tasks they can do, but aren’t handed in. Including breaks/gym time they finish their work by lunch time. I get it is short notice, but seems pretty light.

 

I teach 3rd grade. We are using google classroom and have between 2 and 4 hours a day planned.

 

Everyday I have 30 to 40 min of math planned. A lesson in their book and then a virtual lesson then 1 problem they turn in to be graded.

Reading lesson about 30 to 40 minutes where they read or lesson to a book and answer a question, then some independent reading.

Writing lesson for about 20 to 30 min.

Then a social studies or science lesson for a out 20 to 30 minutes.

Then they also have to do a music lesson twice a week, art once a week, and phy ed daily. The specials lessons are from those departments and involve a walk around the block, playing catch outside, watching youtube videos about music notes, drawing a photo for art, etc.

 

I have to have to have 2 hours of office hours daily, but will be available almost all day. I have meetings with my building and with my grade level once a week to help with planning, questions, etc. Our first day in Monday. I am curious how it's going to go...I have already been answering questions this week during 'spring break'. Most exhausting spring break I've ever had.

[pacopete4]

It is up to us to decide how much work to give and what type. I’m keeping it as simple as I can. I am an every other day SS teacher for these kids so I’m doing one lesson on Mon/Tues and then one one Weds/Thurs with current events happening on Fridays. I will have an hour for office hours each day where I’ll be on Google Meet for the kids to interact with me if they need me. We have a weekly grade level meeting and we will send out communications to parents on Sunday evenings to set up each week.

 

I know up in Superior, they are doing 1-day a week for core classes and then on Friday’s they are doing their electives.

[igor67]

Well 3 days later my toy projection hasn't changed much. It does appear to be down ever so slightly, just missing 1.4 million a week from now. I think most people paying attention to numbers understand that the confirmed cases is an underestimate to some extent, though the amount of undercounting has proven difficult to pin down. What I'm starting to think we've thought about somewhat less is to what extent the official death count is a significant under count. From the initial ramp up in Italy the anecdotes always seemed to be worse than the data. I came across a news story yesterday where 1 particular Italian state had 1600 confirmed deaths, but local officials thought the real total was 4 times that. By itself this would increase the current death total more than 10%. Given that this is only part of Italy their actual toll could be dramatically higher. Similarly there were early reports that Iran was under reporting, and while that number eventually rose it seems to have plateaued rather quickly given where their rhetoric was a week ago. In a similar vein there have been less reliable though plausible accounts that Russia has suppressed their total.

Perhaps the most dramatic though was a Reuters report this morning that the British government was convinced that China had under reported their totals by a factor of 10.

[superfly]

New USA COVID 19 stats roundup:

-Adjusted for ^ in testing we are seeing a *linear* curve. 1 to 1 testing to new cases

-Growth rate *not* out of control

-USA now tested over 625k. Capacity record.

 

Still optimistic that inflection point is coming soon.

covidtracking.com/us-daily/

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUJp_IrXYAAaKZH?format=png&name=medium

 

https://twitter.com/jordanschachtel/status/1243673935193006080?s=21

[MrTPlush]

Even if it is a little more than just linear that isn’t too bad. We haven’t even really got into a timeframe that would be reflective of the stay at home orders. Where we are trending in a week or so should be pretty interesting...even more so in 2-3 weeks. Hopefully it does start to flatten out this upcoming week.

[igor67]

It is certainly plausible that the actual transmission rate in the US has dropped off given significant pull backs have been happening for weeks now. Given what seems likely to have happened in New York, New Orleans, and that province in Italy where there were some larger very public events that happened right before hand, it is a little scary to imagine what would have happened if things were 2-3 weeks later and Opening day still happened...

 

I do hope we can thread the needle and things end up being relatively modest in scope at the end of the day, but most people realize how close to epic catastrophe we got.

[homer]

It is certainly plausible that the actual transmission rate in the US has dropped off given significant pull backs have been happening for weeks now. Given what seems likely to have happened in New York, New Orleans, and that province in Italy where there were some larger very public events that happened right before hand, it is a little scary to imagine what would have happened if things were 2-3 weeks later and Opening day still happened...

 

I do hope we can thread the needle and things end up being relatively modest in scope at the end of the day, but most people realize how close to epic catastrophe we got.

 

The rate at which new cases are doubling is now more than three days. It was just about two not that long ago. Social distancing at work?

[sveumrules]

It is certainly plausible that the actual transmission rate in the US has dropped off given significant pull backs have been happening for weeks now. Given what seems likely to have happened in New York, New Orleans, and that province in Italy where there were some larger very public events that happened right before hand, it is a little scary to imagine what would have happened if things were 2-3 weeks later and Opening day still happened...

 

I do hope we can thread the needle and things end up being relatively modest in scope at the end of the day, but most people realize how close to epic catastrophe we got.

 

The rate at which new cases are doubling is now more than three days. It was just about two not that long ago. Social distancing at work?

 

Let's hope so.

 

WI DHS has the state at 989 confirmed cases currently, so we'll surely pass 1,000 sometime today.

 

WI DHS also has the state at 15,232 negative tests currently, so it's somewhat reassuring to know that only 6% of those individuals symptomatic enough (& with access) to be tested have actually had C19.

[MrTPlush]

We are already over 1k, since last night.

 

For the most accurate up to date amounts a Milwaukee based news site is best. They track the Milwaukee cases more frequently than DHS. DHS will only update once a day at 2pm.

[Fear The Chorizo]

piggybacking from an earlier post in this thread of mine, MN now has just over 500 confirmed Covid cases after almost 18,000 tests. That's only a ~3% positive rate on people that were the most likely of even having the virus. Of those 503 cases, 252 are now no longer needed to be isolated - pretty sure that doesn't mean they are "recovered" but they aren't considered a contagious risk. Does anyone know exactly what it takes to be considered recovered? There seems to be a pronounced lag in deeming someone recovered even after they are identified as being non-contagious/non-symptomatic.

 

The rate of people who are infected with Covid-19 no longer requiring isolation is actually increasing faster than the rate of new confirmed cases in MN...39 current cases in a MN hospital, almost all of which are around the Twin Cities metro area.

 

For areas of moderate to low population density, social distancing starting a few weeks ago definitely appears to have made a difference. Some of the more densely populated areas aren't seeing nearly as good of results, but when you hear stories about Covid parties and large group gatherings being held in those same areas even over the past few days it's no wonder they are in worse situations. Denser populations in an area unfortunately include much better odds of having stupid people amongst them that drastically increase the risk of spread in those areas.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

For areas of moderate to low population density, social distancing starting a few weeks ago definitely appears to have made a difference. Some of the more densely populated areas aren't seeing nearly as good of results, but when you hear stories about Covid parties and large group gatherings being held in those same areas even over the past few days it's no wonder they are in worse situations. Denser populations in an area unfortunately include much better odds of having stupid people amongst them that drastically increase the risk of spread in those areas.

 

 

I work in Madison, and I'm still working, and I'll say based on what I've seen (and experienced) that there's still way too many people that either don't take this seriously, or just don't understand what "safer at home" means. Big part of the problem is WAAAAAYYYY too many retailers have designated themselves as "essential" when there really isn't a reason people should be going to Hometown Recreation to get pool and dart supplies, Best Buy to get a new set of headbuds, or Michaels to buy art supplies. These places are all finding one or two things they can label as "essential" and then they stay open, and people are just going out to shop, and congregating.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I am still fearful of what might happen in rural areas if the virus gets a toehold. There are hotspots developing in surprising places far from urban centers, and the nature of the virus means things can spread while people tell themselves the problems is in the big cities and can't affect them where they are. My folks live in Northwest Wisconsin and the population in their area includes a lot of vulnerable people, due to age, diabetes, history of smoking, and other preexisting conditions. The hospitals in the region can't have much capacity for ICU and respirator care; the Vox article below says half the counties in the US have no ICU beds at all. Apparently many of the more rural clusters are in places with skiing or other activities likely to draw visitors, but there seem to be clusters emerging from church services and other gatherings in otherwise low-population-density areas.

 

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/28/21197421/usa-coronavirus-covid-19-rural-america

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I am still fearful of what might happen in rural areas if the virus gets a toehold. There are hotspots developing in surprising places far from urban centers, and the nature of the virus means things can spread while people tell themselves the problems is in the big cities and can't affect them where they are. My folks live in Northwest Wisconsin and the population in their area includes a lot of vulnerable people, due to age, diabetes, history of smoking, and other preexisting conditions. The hospitals in the region can't have much capacity for ICU and respirator care; the Vox article below says half the counties in the US have no ICU beds at all. Apparently many of the more rural clusters are in places with skiing or other activities likely to draw visitors, but there seem to be clusters emerging from church services and other gatherings in otherwise low-population-density areas.

 

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/28/21197421/usa-coronavirus-covid-19-rural-america

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

 

I live in one of those areas on the border of Oneida and Vilas counties in northern Wisconsin. Oneida County has 3 confirmed cases so far. One is a college student who they think contracted it on a Spring Break trip a few weeks ago. One is a person in their 60s from the Chicago area who drove up to their 2nd home when it started going around Chicago, and likely brought it with them. One is in their 80s, and it is undetermined where they contracted it from.

 

We have roughly 15 ICU beds COMBINED in the two counties. Stay home people!

[TURBO]

Hate to be negative but this issue has shown me just how many ignorant, selfish, idiots we have in our society.

 

Selfish being the biggest issue.

 

It has been reported all over that teenagers are some of our biggest offenders, congregating in large groups in public, and at each other's homes. Where in the hell are the parents in these situations? Are they just unable to say NO to these kids? It's infuriating to say the least.

 

My parent's have a house close to them that have had big rip-roaring parties this past week. These are not teenagers parties, mostly 20-30 somethings. It's amazing how so many people are rubbing it in the faces of the rest of society, who are doing the right thing. In cases like that, the cops should be allowed to break those parties up. If they refuse, start writing tickets, but of course, this only puts the police officers in more danger, as I am sure there would be those that would refuse to comply.

 

I stand by my earlier description, Ignorant, Selfish Idiots!

 

They are everywhere.

[LouisEly]

I am still fearful of what might happen in rural areas if the virus gets a toehold. There are hotspots developing in surprising places far from urban centers, and the nature of the virus means things can spread while people tell themselves the problems is in the big cities and can't affect them where they are. My folks live in Northwest Wisconsin and the population in their area includes a lot of vulnerable people, due to age, diabetes, history of smoking, and other preexisting conditions. The hospitals in the region can't have much capacity for ICU and respirator care; the Vox article below says half the counties in the US have no ICU beds at all. Apparently many of the more rural clusters are in places with skiing or other activities likely to draw visitors, but there seem to be clusters emerging from church services and other gatherings in otherwise low-population-density areas.

 

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/28/21197421/usa-coronavirus-covid-19-rural-america

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

It came to Fond du Lac because several people went on a cruise in the Mediterranean/Nile River.

 

In many of these rural cases, someone went somewhere and brought it back with them.

[adambr2]

I'm barely stopping short of saying that people who still choose to travel to known hazardous areas despite the situation and end up causing community spread in their county should be criminally charged. But maybe they should. I know that's a controversial statement.

[adambr2]

https://forward.com/news/national/442598/coronavirus-treatment-plaquenil/

[adambr2]

Fauci says we're a few weeks away from opening up things again as a society in this country. He says the big thing is the availability of the 5-13 minute COVID-19 test. Once that gets ramped up and pretty much allows for easy and immediate testing, that should really help things.

[MrTPlush]

Fauci says we're a few weeks away from opening up things again as a society in this country. He says the big thing is the availability of the 5-13 minute COVID-19 test. Once that gets ramped up and pretty much allows for easy and immediate testing, that should really help things.

 

Coming from the guy who says 200k are going to die from this in our country?

 

Can leaders decide if they want to be optimistic or use scare tactics?

[adambr2]

I'd like to see a country where this is on the decline to at least get a template for our expectations. Spain and Italy are in the same boat now and Italy seems to have peaked around 800-900 deaths per day, but I have no idea how much to trust that data if they're being completely overwhelmed and unable to keep up with the data.

 

I don't really trust any numbers from Iran or China. I have a really hard time believing that a country of 1.4 billion who was at the front and center of this all really just has a dozen or so new cases a day now while everyone else is well in the thousands.

[TURBO]

 

I don't really trust any numbers from Iran or China.

 

100% this.

 

They never tell the truth about anything, ANYTHING! Why anyone would believe them now is beyond me.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Fauci says we're a few weeks away from opening up things again as a society in this country. He says the big thing is the availability of the 5-13 minute COVID-19 test. Once that gets ramped up and pretty much allows for easy and immediate testing, that should really help things.

 

Coming from the guy who says 200k are going to die from this in our country?

 

Can leaders decide if they want to be optimistic or use scare tactics?

 

Full quote: Dr. Anthony Fauci says there could potentially be between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths related to the coronavirus and millions of cases. “I just don’t think that we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target, that you could so easily be wrong,” he adds.

 

He's not being optimistic or trying to scare anyone. He's telling the truth.

[LouisEly]

Fauci says we're a few weeks away from opening up things again as a society in this country. He says the big thing is the availability of the 5-13 minute COVID-19 test. Once that gets ramped up and pretty much allows for easy and immediate testing, that should really help things.

 

Coming from the guy who says 200k are going to die from this in our country?

 

Can leaders decide if they want to be optimistic or use scare tactics?

It won't be eradicated in a couple of weeks - there will still be cases and deaths. It's that if they can ramp up production of the new faster tests (Abbott Labs said they can make 50K/day IIRC, not sure about others) and find/isolate those who have it, it will go a long way towards slowing it to the point where the infections won't overwhelm the hospital system and we can start resuscitating the economy.

 

If the US averages 50 deaths a day per state across all 50 states (more in some states, less in others), over the next two weeks that's 35,000 deaths by Easter. Doesn't take long to add up.

[GAME05]

Park visitation statewide (I'm not in WI) is up 3-400%. Lots of congregating. Bathrooms closed so folks are pooping in the woods. This week we're scattering all the picnic tables from under the shelters since folks are still congregating there.

 

We haven't hit that point where most folks can say they know someone who has it. So until then I think a lot of folks are treating it like it's somebody else's problem, or "it's only for poor folks" as some Youtubers have put it. It's not personal yet.