COVID-19 Thread

[PeaveyFury]

I can't blame boomers for not taking this seriously. They've lived through:

 

- polio

- end of a World War

- Vietnam War

- race riots

- Cuban missile crisis

- MAD and the Cold War

- Korean War

- Chernobyl

- Desert Storm

- 9/11

- Japan nuclear tsunami

- SARS, swine flu, bird flu, monkeypox

- global cooling, acid rain, hole in ozone layer, global warming, climate change

- multiple recessions

 

They have disaster fatigue and just don't care anymore.

 

And if true, that's too bad since this has the potential to kill more of them than all but Vietnam, and even that might not hold up if this isn't taken seriously.

[Oxy]

 

Sweden is literally the #1 country in the world in the % of households that are comprised of one person, 40%. All of the nordic countries, though, have a disproportionate % of young people who report feeling lonely very often, especially when juxtaposed with those countries basically always topping the list of "happiest" on earth.

 

I'm not sure on the recent numbers, but they've always had the highest suicide rate too. So... stubbornly happy. To a point, anyway.

[Oxy]

 

Sweden is literally the #1 country in the world in the % of households that are comprised of one person, 40%. All of the nordic countries, though, have a disproportionate % of young people who report feeling lonely very often, especially when juxtaposed with those countries basically always topping the list of "happiest" on earth.

 

I'm not sure on the recent numbers, but they've always had the highest suicide rate too. So... stubbornly happy. To a point, anyway.

[igor67]

For fun I did some curve fitting, nothing super rigorous but attempting to plot the data makes it very clear that there have been many different phases of the outbreak. Which we already kind of know. Normally you'd want to add more data in to get a better prediction, but I found pretty consistently that the recent rate of increase in cases has been more than exponential growth, when compared to earlier. Given all the testing wonkiness that is not really a surprise, but it does mean the best fit of a curve to the graph uses only the last 10 days of data. If in included earlier numbers it just keep more and more under predicting our actual current total.

So what I came up with has the world at 1.4 million cases 10 days from now Nothing formal, but I do think it gives a decent idea where things are headed. I'd be stunned if we don't break a million by then, on the other hand unless the death rate moderates significantly over that time if we end up significantly over that number I would be very worried because it would be signalling yet another acceleration in the infection rate.

[igor67]

For fun I did some curve fitting, nothing super rigorous but attempting to plot the data makes it very clear that there have been many different phases of the outbreak. Which we already kind of know. Normally you'd want to add more data in to get a better prediction, but I found pretty consistently that the recent rate of increase in cases has been more than exponential growth, when compared to earlier. Given all the testing wonkiness that is not really a surprise, but it does mean the best fit of a curve to the graph uses only the last 10 days of data. If in included earlier numbers it just keep more and more under predicting our actual current total.

So what I came up with has the world at 1.4 million cases 10 days from now Nothing formal, but I do think it gives a decent idea where things are headed. I'd be stunned if we don't break a million by then, on the other hand unless the death rate moderates significantly over that time if we end up significantly over that number I would be very worried because it would be signalling yet another acceleration in the infection rate.

[Fear The Chorizo]

MN just formally issued its stay at home order through 4/10, although it really changes nothing for the majority of us who are already on house arrest. 287 confirmed cases with 26 of them being hospitalized and 1 death. Even more importantly is MN has only identified a handful of community infection cases - the vast majority remain from people returning from international travel and their immediate family living in the same household. The governor keeps saying they are expecting a surge in cases, but it hasn't showed up yet and you can feel the angst from those who have already been holed up for about 2 weeks voluntarily. Teachers are exhausted. We are trying to sort out how to manage elearning for a 1st grade spanish immersion student on outdated iPads while her younger brothers scream at each other playing and my wife and I juggle conference calls between flipping coins for who gets to leave the house to target and drive home with only half the stuff we needed due to supply issues.

 

Also talked with my neighbor this afternoon from an acceptable distance across the yards, who is a brewmaster at a local craft brewery - even with liquor stores somehow remaining on the list of essential businesses (yay lobbying!), he's pretty certain this is the death if the craft beer boom. He is already retraining himself on car repairs because he's certain his owner is gonna have to close their doors no matter what government aid package gets pieced together and spit out scattershot so it doesnt look like a depression on a nationwide scale. He has three young kids and a wife who is having to start work at 3am as a medical biller so she doesnt crash her company's internet during typical office hours.

 

I feel fortunate to be in the life situation I am in while dealing with what is shaping up to be a really crummy 2020 - hell even my neighbor does. That doesnt change the fact that this flat out sucks, and I'm not ashamed to feel that way.

[Fear The Chorizo]

MN just formally issued its stay at home order through 4/10, although it really changes nothing for the majority of us who are already on house arrest. 287 confirmed cases with 26 of them being hospitalized and 1 death. Even more importantly is MN has only identified a handful of community infection cases - the vast majority remain from people returning from international travel and their immediate family living in the same household. The governor keeps saying they are expecting a surge in cases, but it hasn't showed up yet and you can feel the angst from those who have already been holed up for about 2 weeks voluntarily. Teachers are exhausted. We are trying to sort out how to manage elearning for a 1st grade spanish immersion student on outdated iPads while her younger brothers scream at each other playing and my wife and I juggle conference calls between flipping coins for who gets to leave the house to target and drive home with only half the stuff we needed due to supply issues.

 

Also talked with my neighbor this afternoon from an acceptable distance across the yards, who is a brewmaster at a local craft brewery - even with liquor stores somehow remaining on the list of essential businesses (yay lobbying!), he's pretty certain this is the death if the craft beer boom. He is already retraining himself on car repairs because he's certain his owner is gonna have to close their doors no matter what government aid package gets pieced together and spit out scattershot so it doesnt look like a depression on a nationwide scale. He has three young kids and a wife who is having to start work at 3am as a medical biller so she doesnt crash her company's internet during typical office hours.

 

I feel fortunate to be in the life situation I am in while dealing with what is shaping up to be a really crummy 2020 - hell even my neighbor does. That doesnt change the fact that this flat out sucks, and I'm not ashamed to feel that way.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I went to work today, the first day in Wisconsin of the "Mandated lockdown" and the traffic on the beltline and interstate was absurd. Because so many businesses that are absolutely not essential (Joanne fabrics! Best Buy!) are asking for and receiving exemptions, there are still a lot of people wandering out and about like it's business as usual.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I went to work today, the first day in Wisconsin of the "Mandated lockdown" and the traffic on the beltline and interstate was absurd. Because so many businesses that are absolutely not essential (Joanne fabrics! Best Buy!) are asking for and receiving exemptions, there are still a lot of people wandering out and about like it's business as usual.

[Jimbo]

I have a theory on why Millennials & GenXers are taking this more seriously than other generations:

 

We’re all terrified of a major recession because we’re in (or near) our peak earning years and another economic disruption could permanently throw off our career earnings trajectory. I graduated in the middle of the last recession and it took me 3-4 years to get the type of position/salary that a 2019 grad could have gotten last Spring. Now at age 35, I have what most people would consider a pretty good job and I’m nervous about being forced to start over (but this time with a kid and a mortgage).

From what generation did all of the kids go on spring break this year? I know it is a relative sample size, but people in their late teens / early to mid 20's don't seem to take this as serious as older folks.

 

Today, I met up with an old acquaintance from when I worked in central Wisconsin a few years ago. She relocated to the Madison area a couple of years ago. She has two sons, ages 21 and 19. They come down to Madison twice a month to hang out. So far she has been unable to convince them to stay in Wood County (one positive test) for the time being and avoid exposing themselves to a hot spot.

[Jimbo]

I have a theory on why Millennials & GenXers are taking this more seriously than other generations:

 

We’re all terrified of a major recession because we’re in (or near) our peak earning years and another economic disruption could permanently throw off our career earnings trajectory. I graduated in the middle of the last recession and it took me 3-4 years to get the type of position/salary that a 2019 grad could have gotten last Spring. Now at age 35, I have what most people would consider a pretty good job and I’m nervous about being forced to start over (but this time with a kid and a mortgage).

From what generation did all of the kids go on spring break this year? I know it is a relative sample size, but people in their late teens / early to mid 20's don't seem to take this as serious as older folks.

 

Today, I met up with an old acquaintance from when I worked in central Wisconsin a few years ago. She relocated to the Madison area a couple of years ago. She has two sons, ages 21 and 19. They come down to Madison twice a month to hang out. So far she has been unable to convince them to stay in Wood County (one positive test) for the time being and avoid exposing themselves to a hot spot.

[Baldkin]

For fun I did some curve fitting, nothing super rigorous but attempting to plot the data makes it very clear that there have been many different phases of the outbreak. Which we already kind of know. Normally you'd want to add more data in to get a better prediction, but I found pretty consistently that the recent rate of increase in cases has been more than exponential growth, when compared to earlier. Given all the testing wonkiness that is not really a surprise, but it does mean the best fit of a curve to the graph uses only the last 10 days of data. If in included earlier numbers it just keep more and more under predicting our actual current total.

So what I came up with has the world at 1.4 million cases 10 days from now Nothing formal, but I do think it gives a decent idea where things are headed. I'd be stunned if we don't break a million by then, on the other hand unless the death rate moderates significantly over that time if we end up significantly over that number I would be very worried because it would be signalling yet another acceleration in the infection rate.

 

Yeah, with the extreme lack of testing, then suddenly flooding the country with available tests, it really destroys any data.

 

We'd have to extrapolate the curve backwards based on other countries findings to get a sense of where we actually are and where we might be heading.

[Baldkin]

For fun I did some curve fitting, nothing super rigorous but attempting to plot the data makes it very clear that there have been many different phases of the outbreak. Which we already kind of know. Normally you'd want to add more data in to get a better prediction, but I found pretty consistently that the recent rate of increase in cases has been more than exponential growth, when compared to earlier. Given all the testing wonkiness that is not really a surprise, but it does mean the best fit of a curve to the graph uses only the last 10 days of data. If in included earlier numbers it just keep more and more under predicting our actual current total.

So what I came up with has the world at 1.4 million cases 10 days from now Nothing formal, but I do think it gives a decent idea where things are headed. I'd be stunned if we don't break a million by then, on the other hand unless the death rate moderates significantly over that time if we end up significantly over that number I would be very worried because it would be signalling yet another acceleration in the infection rate.

 

Yeah, with the extreme lack of testing, then suddenly flooding the country with available tests, it really destroys any data.

 

We'd have to extrapolate the curve backwards based on other countries findings to get a sense of where we actually are and where we might be heading.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Doubtful that this specific number is being provided as readily with all the other updates on total number of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, etc - but a great number to also track should be the number of confirmed cases that aren't officially deemed "recovered", but identified as no longer able to require isolation on a statewide level (i.e., most likely not contagious). Also, total number of completed tests is very important on a state by state basis to gauge the accuracy of the actual confirmed case total.

 

MN for example:

 

287 confirmed cases

1 death

26 hospitalizations, 12 currently critical

122 of these cases no longer require isolation

almost 12,000 total tests completed - more have been conducted with pending results

Roughly 6 million people living in MN, more than half of which are in the Twin Cities metro area.

 

So roughly 2% of the people tested in MN to date that either showed symptoms or were in some sort of contact with a confirmed case contracted the coronavirus. Of those 287 they are approaching half of the current cases who no longer require isolation. 26 hospital beds being occupied by patients, 12 of them likely in ICU spaces. The 1 death was an 80-something with underlying medical conditions in addition to their age who came in contact with a family member returning from international travel.

 

There are many more who have contracted the disease and haven't been tested, no question. But by now after 2 weeks of voluntary self-isolation one would think there should be a marked increase in this state of confirmed cases simply by a small percentage of those untested start showing symptoms or require medical attention beyond just riding the illness out at home. If that doesn't start happening, news like this morning's 1000+% increase of weekly unemployment filings continuing over the next couple weeks are going to force their way into the conversation about getting rural and moderate population center areas reopened much sooner than May.

 

There are plenty of areas in the US in much direr straits with this disease than my neck of the woods - those areas are going to require significant response and assistance efforts to prevent their medical infrastructure from imploding for a longer time period, IMO. However, there are many more areas that should be able to start reopening their normal daily operations of public life for the majority of the population after a couple more weeks of self isolation if state and federal governments are smart and restrict movement into/out from the areas with concentrated cases (i.e. New York and some other population centers). I'm fine with not traveling to New York, LA, Chicago, or internationally for a couple months - and not seeing my 70-something parents - if it means my kids have school and most of my friends and family keep their jobs. A measured reopening of the country done the right way sooner allows for the huge chunk of change that's about to be printed out from this bill working its way through Congress to be better targeted to the people and business who really are going to need the help.

 

There shouldn't be restrictions on unaffected areas from returning their kids to school or resuming normal daily routines because population centers in the same state or nationwide can't open their schools, too. Any achievement gap issues caused by rural schools being open when suburban/urban schools remain closed shouldn't be worth worrying about.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Doubtful that this specific number is being provided as readily with all the other updates on total number of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, etc - but a great number to also track should be the number of confirmed cases that aren't officially deemed "recovered", but identified as no longer able to require isolation on a statewide level (i.e., most likely not contagious). Also, total number of completed tests is very important on a state by state basis to gauge the accuracy of the actual confirmed case total.

 

MN for example:

 

287 confirmed cases

1 death

26 hospitalizations, 12 currently critical

122 of these cases no longer require isolation

almost 12,000 total tests completed - more have been conducted with pending results

Roughly 6 million people living in MN, more than half of which are in the Twin Cities metro area.

 

So roughly 2% of the people tested in MN to date that either showed symptoms or were in some sort of contact with a confirmed case contracted the coronavirus. Of those 287 they are approaching half of the current cases who no longer require isolation. 26 hospital beds being occupied by patients, 12 of them likely in ICU spaces. The 1 death was an 80-something with underlying medical conditions in addition to their age who came in contact with a family member returning from international travel.

 

There are many more who have contracted the disease and haven't been tested, no question. But by now after 2 weeks of voluntary self-isolation one would think there should be a marked increase in this state of confirmed cases simply by a small percentage of those untested start showing symptoms or require medical attention beyond just riding the illness out at home. If that doesn't start happening, news like this morning's 1000+% increase of weekly unemployment filings continuing over the next couple weeks are going to force their way into the conversation about getting rural and moderate population center areas reopened much sooner than May.

 

There are plenty of areas in the US in much direr straits with this disease than my neck of the woods - those areas are going to require significant response and assistance efforts to prevent their medical infrastructure from imploding for a longer time period, IMO. However, there are many more areas that should be able to start reopening their normal daily operations of public life for the majority of the population after a couple more weeks of self isolation if state and federal governments are smart and restrict movement into/out from the areas with concentrated cases (i.e. New York and some other population centers). I'm fine with not traveling to New York, LA, Chicago, or internationally for a couple months - and not seeing my 70-something parents - if it means my kids have school and most of my friends and family keep their jobs. A measured reopening of the country done the right way sooner allows for the huge chunk of change that's about to be printed out from this bill working its way through Congress to be better targeted to the people and business who really are going to need the help.

 

There shouldn't be restrictions on unaffected areas from returning their kids to school or resuming normal daily routines because population centers in the same state or nationwide can't open their schools, too. Any achievement gap issues caused by rural schools being open when suburban/urban schools remain closed shouldn't be worth worrying about.

[adambr2]

New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity.

https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html

[adambr2]

New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity.

https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html

[Outlander]

I went to work today, the first day in Wisconsin of the "Mandated lockdown" and the traffic on the beltline and interstate was absurd. Because so many businesses that are absolutely not essential (Joanne fabrics! Best Buy!) are asking for and receiving exemptions, there are still a lot of people wandering out and about like it's business as usual.

Really, I drive the beltline every day for work it and has been one of the few positives. Usually bumper to bumper to and from work and has been smooth sailing for the last week or so.

[Outlander]

I went to work today, the first day in Wisconsin of the "Mandated lockdown" and the traffic on the beltline and interstate was absurd. Because so many businesses that are absolutely not essential (Joanne fabrics! Best Buy!) are asking for and receiving exemptions, there are still a lot of people wandering out and about like it's business as usual.

Really, I drive the beltline every day for work it and has been one of the few positives. Usually bumper to bumper to and from work and has been smooth sailing for the last week or so.

[homer]

There is so much noise in the data right now it's really hard to model anything with any degree of accuracy.

[homer]

There is so much noise in the data right now it's really hard to model anything with any degree of accuracy.

[MrTPlush]

A Florida man is claiming the "game changing" drug touted by Trump cured him overnight. I haven't seen much outside of that on that cure.

[MrTPlush]

A Florida man is claiming the "game changing" drug touted by Trump cured him overnight. I haven't seen much outside of that on that cure.

[nate82]

A Florida man is claiming the "game changing" drug touted by Trump cured him overnight. I haven't seen much outside of that on that cure.

 

Florida Man is probably already immune to it.

[nate82]

A Florida man is claiming the "game changing" drug touted by Trump cured him overnight. I haven't seen much outside of that on that cure.

 

Florida Man is probably already immune to it.