COVID-19 Thread

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The only thing I'm totally convinced of is that some people, including within this thread, wouldn't concede the severity of the virus unless it actually killed half the country.

[JosephC]

It looks like the number of new cases in Italy has fallen each of the last two days. If they have indeed hit their plateau in new confirmed cases, it took about three weeks to reach that plateau from when it first started taking off.

 

China had a two week ramp up, then a bizarre 3 day spike occurred about a week after that when numbers appeared to be falling.

 

France had a goofy spike today. Previous four days looked like it had leveled off there.

 

Next seven days we'll probably get some good hard data out of Europe which, I'm guessing, will end up being a pretty good indicator of how long this is going to last.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[MrTPlush]

The only thing I'm totally convinced of is that some people, including within this thread, wouldn't concede the severity of the virus unless it actually killed half the country.

 

No, just needs to kill someone they know. All fun and games till it hits too close to home. Think that would change some people’s minds real fast.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Italy is only testing the most severe cases, but I read that if the new cases are actually declining it would be right in the timeline with the lockdown measures beginning to work. The US is a much larger country especially geographically, so it's natural that some areas will mostly evade serious issues. The aggressive measures will have worked in many areas if that happens. I will be very thankful if that is the case and we have normal lives again soonish. It's not terribly surprising NY is getting smashed.

[jerichoholicninja]

The only thing I'm totally convinced of is that some people, including within this thread, wouldn't concede the severity of the virus unless it actually killed half the country.

 

Depends what you mean by "severity". Getting infected, feeling sick, being hospitalized, and dying are all totally different things. There's about 44,000 cases in the US now, that's .01% of the US population. There's certainly a whole heck of a lot more than that though. Even if it's 10x more, that's only about 1%. How many things in life if you were told had a 1% chance of happening would you even concern yourself with? I've been trying to find any sort of over hospitalization rate but everything seems to be broken down into age groups because it varies so much. If you're under 65, it looks like it's about 20%-30%, 30% to 70% if you're older. That's of course just of the positive tests and of hospitalizations in general. So dehydration is being lumped in with ICU. The mortality rate is about 2%-4% depending on where you read and when you factor in all the people that have it but are never tested, it's much lower. I understand trying to slow the spread but you are dealing with such incredibly small percentages of percentages of the population.

 

And just because someone isn't running around like their pants are on fire screaming "social distancing" and "flatten the curve" doesn't mean they aren't taking it seriously. I think most people see this as something to take seriously. You're only going to hear about the small minority that doesn't because it's newsworthy. As for posters here, I have yet to see someone totally deny it and say they're going to go about their life as usual. Everyone seems to recognize this as a matter that requires some action. Look, I'm diabetic, I'm one of those high risk people. I'm already self-quarantined by being a stay at home parent so I'm not really doing anything differently but on the list of things that cause me grief and worry, COVID doesn't even make the top 10. Maybe not even the top 20. Sure, I'll hunker down until the government tells me it's safe to come out but I'm not going to give in to the fear and hysteria they are either intentionally or unintentionally causing.

[LouisEly]

Population density seems to be a big factor. China, Italy, NYC, Barcelona - very dense. Chicago, Los Angeles - much less dense than NYC, and far fewer cases proportionately. Right now about a 1% death rate compared to confirmed cases in Illinois.

 

Worldometers is reporting that of the ~$300K active cases, 96% are mild, and of the 53K active cases in the US 2% are serious/critical.

 

We just need to hunker down for another 3 weeks and minimize contact with others.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The only thing I'm totally convinced of is that some people, including within this thread, wouldn't concede the severity of the virus unless it actually killed half the country.

 

Total death tally is approaching 20,000 worldwide after about two months of the outbreak - now that it's largely worldwide I'd expect that number to quadruple over the next month or so. That sounds like alot but in reality it isn't - however the nature of this virus makes it a fool's errand to try and return to normalcy without properly isolating remaining contagious cells, or it'll just keep blowing up in populated areas.

 

Approaching one thousand US deaths, and it'll go well beyond that. Doubtful it'll be 160 million but I get your larger point even though I think all of us acknowledge its severity at least from its impact globally even without carrying a monumental death toll. It's crazy to me that back in 2009, this was roughly the time in its outbreak when people were kind of like, "man this swine flu thing might be bad, we better wash our hands more."

[DuWayne Steurer]

And just because someone isn't running around like their pants are on fire screaming "social distancing" and "flatten the curve" doesn't mean they aren't taking it seriously. I think most people see this as something to take seriously. .

 

There's only a few people screaming "social distancing" and "flatten the curve". Probably about the same percentage as the people that think this is a scheme cooked up by Bill Gates and Cobra Commander and Megatron to create a Universal Vaccine and inject people with global tracking microchips.

 

I think most people are annoyed, bored, and unsure of their future, while understanding that the goal and purpose of social distancing isn't because a few thousand people have died, it's to avoid putting a massive strain on our already under staffed and short bedded hospitals and healthcare systems all at one time.

 

People are gonna die. It sucks. But having everyone go to the hospital at the same time, whether some people want to believe the things they are told are true or not, would be a massive, major, crippling problem. People that need health care or ER services for non-coronavirus related injuries and illnesses COULD die because care or service is delayed or not available.

[brewcrewdue80]

Watched an interesting Youtube video where the gentleman discussed the findings breaking it down between Italy and China. Unfortunately, I cant find my history the link where I watched the video.(about 5hours ago)

What I can remember.

Death rate was 0pct and 0.2pct for 0-18yr old.

0 and 0.2pct for 18-30yr old. This is Italy and China.

0.4 and 0.5pct 30-40yr old.

1.0 and 1.4pct for 40-50yr old

 

Then the numbers increased I dont remember those offhand. China didnt keep track above 70. But a fair estimate was like 3.9pct jump to 12.5pct and Italy above 70 like 27.7pct.

All told it came to something like 5.5-5.7pct death rate via the virus data up to approx 14days ago. The data was based on 14days prior because the effects of the virus seem to take hold day 10-14 upon infected where the deaths begin happening. Said the rate actually worsens exceeding 14days going back. But then your going back where cases are smaller and smaller.

It was around 74pct of all Italy cases 60 and above. About 71pct of the cases at 14days were mild to Asymptomatic. Something the gentleman said was a concern because initially this was thought of being above 80pct. (Do wanna tie the older age being something to consider)

 

Pretty much what I got out of it was 50 and younger, covid19 isn't a concern for your health. 51-60 becomes the avg stage to be concerned. The older you get above 60 your life is drastically in danger upon getting the virus.

 

Found the video. I must have seen this on Facebook feed to why wasn't in my history.

[nodakfan17]

My wife went to Target last night for a carside pickup and said there were an alarming number of people still going into Target like it was business as usual.

[superfly]

The only thing I'm totally convinced of is that some people, including within this thread, wouldn't concede the severity of the virus unless it actually killed half the country.

 

Who are these people that think covid19 isn’t an issue? Other than naive old people “get off my lawn” “I’m not listening to a word the government says” I’ve yet to find these elusive creatures you speak of.

 

Me personally I think I fall in the grey area. Data is beginning to show there is the possibility of a vast overreaction (and not in the “good” way that we go thank god we overreacted). The media is damaging us and making this a subject people are starting to tune out on because of exaggerations IE Chris Hayes saying millions of Americans are about to die over and over. I am worried about it coming back and society not having developed any kind of herd immunity to help stop it by us hiding for months.

 

The problem is the 70 year olds saying F all this stuff I’m going about my business. I have two grandparents that just ignored every order made and came back from Florida to northern WI and nearly stopped in New Orleans along the way for some relaxation, only skipping because we begged them not to. Largely it’s not “us” millennials and working people ignoring it.

[Baldkin]

Data? What data?

 

All the data we have is horrible. People cannot get tested. China has stopped testing as has Italy.

 

Right now we have 47 PAs across 5 seasons and we're trying to make assumptions on it.

 

What we know is this grows exponentially and it can and will overwhelm our hospital infrastructure

[PeaveyFury]

The only thing I'm totally convinced of is that some people, including within this thread, wouldn't concede the severity of the virus unless it actually killed half the country.

 

Who are these people that think covid19 isn’t an issue? Other than naive old people “get off my lawn” “I’m not listening to a word the government says” I’ve yet to find these elusive creatures you speak of.

 

Perhaps they're not in this thread, but you provided a good example with your Grandparents. I have a similar issue with my parents and in-laws, who aren't taking this seriously at all despite being in the danger demographics.

 

As you said, the problem appears to be the gen z people on the beaches, and the boomers who just won't stay home for some reason, but I do think that both those groups don't feel that this is serious at all.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think we can reliably compare ourselves to any other country. China and Italy both had much stricter lockdowns than anything we have in the US. Both of those countries (especially China) have had very questionable statistics that are potentially false and they aren't testing in the same way we are. Their timelines just aren't accurate for us.

 

The biggest thing people can do right now is stop traveling out of their home area. Don't make the NYC problem a bigger problem or on the local level here the Milwaukee problem.

[nodakfan17]

I have a theory on why Millennials & GenXers are taking this more seriously than other generations:

 

We’re all terrified of a major recession because we’re in (or near) our peak earning years and another economic disruption could permanently throw off our career earnings trajectory. I graduated in the middle of the last recession and it took me 3-4 years to get the type of position/salary that a 2019 grad could have gotten last Spring. Now at age 35, I have what most people would consider a pretty good job and I’m nervous about being forced to start over (but this time with a kid and a mortgage).

[adambr2]

My dad is a boomer and he takes this as seriously as anyone. He gets all his groceries delivered. He leaves the house only once a day to take a mile and a half walk to my house, knocks on my door, stays outside on my lawn about 10 feet away and we chat outside for a half hour or so.

[et bbal]

So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart.

 

I saw the same thing! They were probably satellites all in the same orbit.

 

Could it be SpaceX StarLink?

 

Having done a little research and watched a couple of youtube videos, I think it is very likely this is what I saw. Thanks.

[madbad2000]

 

People are gonna die. It sucks. But having everyone go to the hospital at the same time, whether some people want to believe the things they are told are true or not, would be a massive, major, crippling problem. People that need health care or ER services for non-coronavirus related injuries and illnesses COULD die because care or service is delayed or not available.

 

This is something that does not get addressed enough by those claiming this virus is not that big of a deal. I have seen far too many people I personally know claim COVID-19 is just a "bad cold" or on par with normal flu. The effects of this outbreak go much farther than just X amount of people get it, X% will die, XXX are at risk and XX are not. Any numbers we get out of this (flawed or not) are going to be taken in a vacuum and only considering COVID. The strain on the hospital system is a very real danger not just for COVID, but for any other issues a person has to head to the hospital to receive treatment. This is bad because it may force an issue where certain people will not be able to receive treatment for this or other medical issues. Without treatment, that increases the risk and likelihood of severe outcomes for all issues. We only have a finite amount of doctors, nurses, beds, etc. This is something to consider when evaluating the regional differences in cases. The amount of beds and advanced care capability that is available in Chicago is different than Milwaukee or Cheyenne, WY. Keeping this isolated is the best defense for everyone and not just from a COVID 19 aspect.

[adambr2]

 

People are gonna die. It sucks. But having everyone go to the hospital at the same time, whether some people want to believe the things they are told are true or not, would be a massive, major, crippling problem. People that need health care or ER services for non-coronavirus related injuries and illnesses COULD die because care or service is delayed or not available.

 

This is something that does not get addressed enough by those claiming this virus is not that big of a deal. I have seen far too many people I personally know claim COVID-19 is just a "bad cold" or on par with normal flu. The effects of this outbreak go much farther than just X amount of people get it, X% will die, XXX are at risk and XX are not. Any numbers we get out of this (flawed or not) are going to be taken in a vacuum and only considering COVID. The strain on the hospital system is a very real danger not just for COVID, but for any other issues a person has to head to the hospital to receive treatment. This is bad because it may force an issue where certain people will not be able to receive treatment for this or other medical issues. Without treatment, that increases the risk and likelihood of severe outcomes for all issues. We only have a finite amount of doctors, nurses, beds, etc. This is something to consider when evaluating the regional differences in cases. The amount of beds and advanced care capability that is available in Chicago is different than Milwaukee or Cheyenne, WY. Keeping this isolated is the best defense for everyone and not just from a COVID 19 aspect.

 

Just to play devil's advocate here, but couldn't it be argued that the over the top fear mongering is exasperating this problem? People that have symptoms that they would normally shrug off over some fluids and Tylonel now think, "Hey, maybe I have coronavirus, I better get checked out now!"

[madbad2000]

Just to play devil's advocate here, but couldn't it be argued that the over the top fear mongering is exasperating this problem? People that have symptoms that they would normally shrug off over some fluids and Tylonel now think, "Hey, maybe I have coronavirus, I better get checked out now!"

 

You can argue that and it is a proper question to ask. I would argue the use of the term "over the top" and "fear mongering" is a bit biased in this situation, but that is my personal stance. That's where the screening process helps out and the medical professionals can make that "simple" diagnosis, test if warranted and then send them on their way. Coupled with an isolation/quarantine regime should help stop further spread even if you will test positive with mild or asymptomatic response. I was talking more about the severe cases that tie down the full resources of a hospital such as requiring a bed and advanced care such as ventilators and other materials. As a population we know that we can help stop the spread of this thing by isolation. This means that whatever percentages we are dealing with (% infected, serious reaction or mortality rates) will create smaller numbers of cases required to take up these precious resources. Even a small tick upward from our current posture would be bad news for many regions of the country on their medical resources.

[adambr2]

Sweden has pretty much gone against the grain and enacted a "business as usual" approach in their country with little consequence so far.

 

http://dlvr.it/RSVnRN

 

I know Sweden isn't comparable to a country like Italy in terms of population density but they are about twice as dense as their neighboring Norway and Finland who have much more stringent social measures.

[adambr2]

Sweden has pretty much gone against the grain and enacted a "business as usual" approach in their country with little consequence so far.

 

http://dlvr.it/RSVnRN

 

I know Sweden isn't comparable to a country like Italy in terms of population density but they are about twice as dense as their neighboring Norway and Finland who have much more stringent social measures.

[homer]

Sweden has pretty much gone against the grain and enacted a "business as usual" approach in their country with little consequence so far.

 

http://dlvr.it/RSVnRN

 

I know Sweden isn't comparable to a country like Italy in terms of population density but they are about twice as dense as their neighboring Norway and Finland who have much more stringent social measures.

 

I dunno. Doesn't really sound like they are business as usual after reading that. They have plenty of measures in place. We are fully able to travel within the US right? And what does "some table service" mean? And Sweden's death rate is higher than neighboring Norway so to say they have had little consequence is really underselling it.

 

"Like other European countries, Sweden has banned gatherings, but only gatherings of 500 or more — as opposed to the more drastic directives, like in Germany, which is now banning “gatherings” of more than just two. Sweden’s government is also advising that universities and secondary schools shift to fully online classes, but is so far keeping primary schools open, though lawmakers have fast-tracked a bill allowing closures, if deemed necessary.

 

Also remaining open are restaurants and bars, which other governments, including those of many U.S. states, have fully shut down except for take-out orders. Sweden, on the other hand, still allows some table service.

 

Like other European countries, travel across Sweden’s border is barred except for essential travel, but travel within the country is fully open, the government merely advising residents to avoid non-essential holiday trips."

[homer]

Sweden has pretty much gone against the grain and enacted a "business as usual" approach in their country with little consequence so far.

 

http://dlvr.it/RSVnRN

 

I know Sweden isn't comparable to a country like Italy in terms of population density but they are about twice as dense as their neighboring Norway and Finland who have much more stringent social measures.

 

I dunno. Doesn't really sound like they are business as usual after reading that. They have plenty of measures in place. We are fully able to travel within the US right? And what does "some table service" mean? And Sweden's death rate is higher than neighboring Norway so to say they have had little consequence is really underselling it.

 

"Like other European countries, Sweden has banned gatherings, but only gatherings of 500 or more — as opposed to the more drastic directives, like in Germany, which is now banning “gatherings” of more than just two. Sweden’s government is also advising that universities and secondary schools shift to fully online classes, but is so far keeping primary schools open, though lawmakers have fast-tracked a bill allowing closures, if deemed necessary.

 

Also remaining open are restaurants and bars, which other governments, including those of many U.S. states, have fully shut down except for take-out orders. Sweden, on the other hand, still allows some table service.

 

Like other European countries, travel across Sweden’s border is barred except for essential travel, but travel within the country is fully open, the government merely advising residents to avoid non-essential holiday trips."

[JosephC]

Italy now has 69,176 confirmed cases. Italy's population is 60,485,153. 0.11% infected.