COVID-19 Thread

[MrTPlush]

I think there is a very very low priority of trying and figuring out if someone is fully better or not. If you aren't getting worse and going to the hospital the concern for you probably diminishes a lot.

[xisxisxis]

That's mainly because they basically wait 3 full weeks before declaring anyone infected with the disease as recovered once they know a person has it...even if they arent affected by it. Recovered appears to mean not being infectious more than fully healed after experiencing symptoms. Obviously once you die, they ain't waiting that long to update stats.

Yes, which just reinforces the point I was making. Basing any conclusions strictly on numbers without accounting for how those numbers are calculated/determined is very risky. If you want to use those numbers literally you need to take the death and recovery numbers literally too. The point is you can't take any of those numbers literally. Unfortunately we live in a time when attention spans are so short that when you say "yes that is the current number, but there is a problem with how it is measured..." and the person you are trying to discuss the point with has already stopped listening and is searching their phone/google for other data... They've moved on and just remember the number they saw/heard and that's it.

 

I think there is a very very low priority of trying and figuring out if someone is fully better or not. If you aren't getting worse and going to the hospital the concern for you probably diminishes a lot.

The CDC will be the main gatherer of that information because knowing who survives and recovers is just as important as who doesn't. While looking at mortality associated data can give you an idea of what the at risk group looks like, you can't accurately predict risks without also knowing the numbers for recovered and their associated data.

[MrTPlush]

I think there is a very very low priority of trying and figuring out if someone is fully better or not. If you aren't getting worse and going to the hospital the concern for you probably diminishes a lot.

The CDC will be the main gatherer of that information because knowing who survives and recovers is just as important as who doesn't. While looking at mortality associated data can give you an idea of what the at risk group looks like, you can't accurately predict risks without also knowing the numbers for recovered and their associated data.

 

Didn't say it wasn't important, but I do not believe that information is gathered speedy fast. When someone dies everyone knows right away. To me the recovery statistics will not be as up to date as the deaths. You can be days late on that information and it doesn't matter as much. I am sure they are beyond overwhelmed when it comes to keeping track of everyones current condition that is not in critical hospital care.

[thebruce44]

Self-policing myself from using expletives...but my County in Central WI has one (1) confirmed case, after weeks of social distancing. The Governor's order is overbroad and unnecessary for about 70 of the 72 Counties in the State (Dane & Milwaukee being the obvious exceptions).

 

 

What a horrible graphic. Did Milwaukee County slide into the lake?

[MrTPlush]

Self-policing myself from using expletives...but my County in Central WI has one (1) confirmed case, after weeks of social distancing. The Governor's order is overbroad and unnecessary for about 70 of the 72 Counties in the State (Dane & Milwaukee being the obvious exceptions).

 

 

What a horrible graphic. Did Milwaukee County slide into the lake?

 

Sadly not, that would sure help slow the spread.

[nodakfan17]

It sounds like Wisconsin *only* added 35 cases since yesterday’s update. The state total is now at 416. That’s encouraging, right?

[adambr2]

It sounds like Wisconsin *only* added 35 cases since yesterday’s update. The state total is now at 416. That’s encouraging, right?

 

Could be something, could be nothing more than less tests conducted or processed in some areas or less people seeing their doctor because it was Sunday. Too many factors at play to read into one day. I'd look for at least 3 to 4 consecutive days before putting too much stock into any trends.

[LouisEly]

It sounds like Wisconsin *only* added 35 cases since yesterday’s update. The state total is now at 416. That’s encouraging, right?

As of yesterday, that's not much fewer than the city of Chicago which was ~490 as of yesterday. Amazing that Chicago only had ~500 when NYC had about 20,000.

 

However, if there's a case in Bayfield, it's everywhere.

[FVBrewerFan]

It sounds like Wisconsin *only* added 35 cases since yesterday’s update. The state total is now at 416. That’s encouraging, right?

 

Could be something, could be nothing more than less tests conducted or processed in some areas or less people seeing their doctor because it was Sunday. Too many factors at play to read into one day. I'd look for at least 3 to 4 consecutive days before putting too much stock into any trends.

 

It's a good sign even if 100 are added every day. A lot of those are already positive cases that just haven't been tested yet. What you don't want to see is exponential growth. Like going from 416 to 8,000 in a few days. If that doesn't happen by the end of the weekend, it's back to work for everyone. Or we can say hello year 1850.

[et bbal]

Until airlines are not allowed to transport people all around our country, not much will change. It should’ve been one of the first things shutdown. Screw your vacation. This has spread a lot more than it needed to.

 

Not sure where this belongs, but since I believe it was related to covid-19. I'll put it here. Two nights ago I walked the dog and noticed the constellation Orion (about the only one I know and that is because I can't get enough of the show Ancient Aliens). Anyway, one of Orions feature is Orions belt - 3 stars on nearly a straight line.

 

So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart.

 

I have no idea what was happening. My first thought was reserves being sent to New York area, or supplies being sent that way. I mentioned it to my neighbors and she said that a pilot friend of hers had talked about all the cancelled flights and her guess was that they were sending all the planes to one airport for storage. She mentioned Indy, but I don't feel like they were heading that far south.

 

So, if it is the latter then at least air travel has been significantly reduced.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I have heard a ton of planes are being mothballed in various airline hangars until demand picks back up

[jerichoholicninja]

Until airlines are not allowed to transport people all around our country, not much will change. It should’ve been one of the first things shutdown. Screw your vacation. This has spread a lot more than it needed to.

 

Not sure where this belongs, but since I believe it was related to covid-19. I'll put it here. Two nights ago I walked the dog and noticed the constellation Orion (about the only one I know and that is because I can't get enough of the show Ancient Aliens). Anyway, one of Orions feature is Orions belt - 3 stars on nearly a straight line.

 

So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart.

 

I have no idea what was happening. My first thought was reserves being sent to New York area, or supplies being sent that way. I mentioned it to my neighbors and she said that a pilot friend of hers had talked about all the cancelled flights and her guess was that they were sending all the planes to one airport for storage. She mentioned Indy, but I don't feel like they were heading that far south.

 

So, if it is the latter then at least air travel has been significantly reduced.

 

I can't say if that's what it was or not but they are running out of places to store planes. I was just reading an article about it yesterday. In Europe they are closing down runways and parking planes there and on taxiways. Airports charge several hundred dollars a day per plane. Most planes in the US are stored in the southwest because of the dry climate. The two biggest facilities are actually rapidly expanding and building more spaces for planes.

[Oxy]

Until airlines are not allowed to transport people all around our country, not much will change. It should’ve been one of the first things shutdown. Screw your vacation. This has spread a lot more than it needed to.

 

Not sure where this belongs, but since I believe it was related to covid-19. I'll put it here. Two nights ago I walked the dog and noticed the constellation Orion (about the only one I know and that is because I can't get enough of the show Ancient Aliens). Anyway, one of Orions feature is Orions belt - 3 stars on nearly a straight line.

 

So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart.

 

I have no idea what was happening. My first thought was reserves being sent to New York area, or supplies being sent that way. I mentioned it to my neighbors and she said that a pilot friend of hers had talked about all the cancelled flights and her guess was that they were sending all the planes to one airport for storage. She mentioned Indy, but I don't feel like they were heading that far south.

 

So, if it is the latter then at least air travel has been significantly reduced.

 

 

Not sure if you want your phenomenon explained or not, but google starlink:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=starlink&rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS772US873&oq=starlink&aqs=chrome..69i57j46j0l6.3593j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[NeedMoreFans]

So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart.

 

I saw the same thing! They were probably satellites all in the same orbit.

[nate82]

So as I am scanning the sky I notice to my west 4 stars in a straight line. Thinking that is strange I stared at it for a while and I realized the stars were moving. Not stars, but planes. I followed the line and counted 7 planes in all. Then there was 9 more. I went inside for a while and got curious so about 5-10 minutes later I went back out and saw 7 more. So that was 23 planes that I saw, and who knows how many before or after I quit watching, all on the exact same flight path, spaced about a minute apart.

 

I saw the same thing! They were probably satellites all in the same orbit.

 

Pretty sure you are wrong.....

 

 

[adambr2]

They did large scale testing in Iceland of the general population and half of the positively tested individuals were entirely asymptomatic.

 

I think this is well more widespread than we know. The symptoms are reported as mild to moderate in best case scenarios but I think there are thousands who simply have no symptoms.

 

Unfortunately that makes it really difficult to stop from spreading.

[JosephC]

 

I still haven't heard a reasonable argument as to how providing take-out food qualifies as an "essential business?"

 

I would guess that it spreads people out to get their necessities. If there is only ONE place to get food, everybody has to go to that place to get it. This seems problematic to me. It also helps those restaurants stay in business.

 

I hear what you are saying. This is how I view it. Now I'm sure there are people who love the deli/bakery at their local grocery store, and because of that will make 3-4 trips to the store every week. But I think those people are in a minority. For most people, I'd guess the grocery store is a once a week or once every couple of weeks trip.

 

Before the COVID-19 stuff started, I was a once a week to the grocery store and generally 3 times a week stop somewhere and pick up dinner to take home. I have completely stopped with the takeout food and an just doing grocery shopping once a week but am going to try and stuff as much in my fridge after the next trip where I can make it a once every two week trip.

 

I'm guessing there are a lot of people out there like me who would limit there movement much more if takeout food wasn't an option.

 

Also, what about if the one kid working the drive through at McDonald's is also the one person who has been infected with COVID-19 and just doesn't know it yet. Now the rules have funneled every customer right to a contagious individual.

 

And as far as allowing take out food allowing restaurants to (1) stay in business and (2) spreads people out more...wouldn't that apply to all retail businesses? If I need a couple new shirts, instead of being able to go to a clothing retailer, I now am forced with all the other people to a Walmart or Target.

 

The Ohio Stay at Home thing is a joke and I'm guessing Wisconsin's will be equally as ridiculous. The way Ohio's is, it would be perfectly fine to start out my day by going and getting some groceries, and then stopping at the auto store to pick up an air filter on the way back. Then I could head to the laundromat, then head to the wacky weed dispensary to pick up some dope, and then go pick up some take out food. So I have to ask, what good is an order like this? Just seems like politician's doing the "we're going to save you" pose, when essentially these orders aren't really accomplishing anything at all except preventing me from getting my springtime haircut.

[JosephC]

They did large scale testing in Iceland of the general population and half of the positively tested individuals were entirely asymptomatic.

 

I think this is well more widespread than we know. The symptoms are reported as mild to moderate in best case scenarios but I think there are thousands who simply have no symptoms.

 

Unfortunately that makes it really difficult to stop from spreading.

 

I've heard that experts are suspecting that 6 out of 7 people who get it will never shot any symptoms. Obviously at this point nothing that comes from the media can be trusted regarding this subject because the government will just spoon-fed the journalists...basically making the numbers say whatever message they want to get out there.

 

But if 6 out of 7 people will never show any symptoms, in turn that would cut the death rate down by a factor of 7. And if that's the case, have the world governments made this a way bigger deal than it really is? I guess it all depends on if the powers-that-be decide this to be a "the world is coming to an end" day or if the powers-that-be decide this to be a "just don't panic" day. Personally, I'm just sick of it all.

[MrTPlush]

It is our way of life that is the problem. We would never do crazy shutdowns because we simply won’t put up for it. States etc. are too scared to get sued like crazy and have businesses stake their claim as essential. If you watched Evers talk today the attorney for the state (or whatever he was) always jumped in any time someone asked anything about what would be closed or essential. Part of why we don’t know that answer yet is because they have to figure out all the legal aspects of forcing business to shut their doors etc etc etc.

[homer]

 

I still haven't heard a reasonable argument as to how providing take-out food qualifies as an "essential business?"

 

I would guess that it spreads people out to get their necessities. If there is only ONE place to get food, everybody has to go to that place to get it. This seems problematic to me. It also helps those restaurants stay in business.

 

I hear what you are saying. This is how I view it. Now I'm sure there are people who love the deli/bakery at their local grocery store, and because of that will make 3-4 trips to the store every week. But I think those people are in a minority. For most people, I'd guess the grocery store is a once a week or once every couple of weeks trip.

 

Before the COVID-19 stuff started, I was a once a week to the grocery store and generally 3 times a week stop somewhere and pick up dinner to take home. I have completely stopped with the takeout food and an just doing grocery shopping once a week but am going to try and stuff as much in my fridge after the next trip where I can make it a once every two week trip.

 

I'm guessing there are a lot of people out there like me who would limit there movement much more if takeout food wasn't an option.

 

Also, what about if the one kid working the drive through at McDonald's is also the one person who has been infected with COVID-19 and just doesn't know it yet. Now the rules have funneled every customer right to a contagious individual.

 

And as far as allowing take out food allowing restaurants to (1) stay in business and (2) spreads people out more...wouldn't that apply to all retail businesses? If I need a couple new shirts, instead of being able to go to a clothing retailer, I now am forced with all the other people to a Walmart or Target.

 

The Ohio Stay at Home thing is a joke and I'm guessing Wisconsin's will be equally as ridiculous. The way Ohio's is, it would be perfectly fine to start out my day by going and getting some groceries, and then stopping at the auto store to pick up an air filter on the way back. Then I could head to the laundromat, then head to the wacky weed dispensary to pick up some dope, and then go pick up some take out food. So I have to ask, what good is an order like this? Just seems like politician's doing the "we're going to save you" pose, when essentially these orders aren't really accomplishing anything at all except preventing me from getting my springtime haircut.

 

Time will tell. Illinois employed theirs on Saturday at 5pm. We'll see in a week or two how well that stemmed the new case load.

[homer]

And if you don't trust media reports that's your prerogative but at least follow some epidemiologist or infectious disease docs on twitter or something.

 

Like this guy:

https://threader.app/thread/1242232846900756482

[xisxisxis]

They did large scale testing in Iceland of the general population and half of the positively tested individuals were entirely asymptomatic.

 

I think this is well more widespread than we know. The symptoms are reported as mild to moderate in best case scenarios but I think there are thousands who simply have no symptoms.

 

Unfortunately that makes it really difficult to stop from spreading.

There's lots of problems with the Icelandic population. I don't remember the exact numbers, but roughly 50% are related to a small group of settlers that discovered the rock. Years ago there was great promise tracking down genetic disease genes because in addition to a small founder population, they have extensive birth records so you can track the families almost back to the discovery. Turns out a lot of the genetics didn't translate to non-icelandic populations. I can't remember the biotech company that was founded their and promised to identify all the genes involved with disease because you don't hear much about them anymore.

 

While it's interesting information, it could have zero application outside Iceland. Maybe they just have a genetic background that is favorable for preventing viral infections. The cell receptor that the virus uses for entry has quite a bit of genetic variation which may be unique or common in Iceland. For example, there is a subset of individuals who never get infected by HIV because they have 2 copies of the receptor that contain a variant that the virus can't infect. That's just a single genetic change and they are completely protected.

[LouisEly]

Time will tell. Illinois employed theirs on Saturday at 5pm. We'll see in a week or two how well that stemmed the new case load.

Illinois closed bars and restaurant and limited large gatherings on 3/16. Lots of people who could work from home started to on 3/16. I went in to work on 3/16 and the train was at least 70% empty compared to a usual Monday. In essence, it's already been a week.

 

The data that is really needed is:

1) Total # of tests administered

2) Total/% of positive tests

3) % of positive tests that are asymptomatic

4) % of positive tests that are mildly symptomatic, not requiring medical care

5) % of positive tests that are moderately and severely symptomatic, requiring medical care

6) Total # of hospitalizations

7) Total # of deaths

 

The tests also take a couple of hours to confirm, so there is a little lag in the data.

[homer]

Right, but the issue is the Stay at Home order.

[FVBrewerFan]

They did large scale testing in Iceland of the general population and half of the positively tested individuals were entirely asymptomatic.

 

I think this is well more widespread than we know. The symptoms are reported as mild to moderate in best case scenarios but I think there are thousands who simply have no symptoms.

 

Unfortunately that makes it really difficult to stop from spreading.

 

I've heard that experts are suspecting that 6 out of 7 people who get it will never shot any symptoms. Obviously at this point nothing that comes from the media can be trusted regarding this subject because the government will just spoon-fed the journalists...basically making the numbers say whatever message they want to get out there.

 

But if 6 out of 7 people will never show any symptoms, in turn that would cut the death rate down by a factor of 7. And if that's the case, have the world governments made this a way bigger deal than it really is? I guess it all depends on if the powers-that-be decide this to be a "the world is coming to an end" day or if the powers-that-be decide this to be a "just don't panic" day. Personally, I'm just sick of it all.

 

Most likely, we'll find out what our instincts have always told us. That it's right in the middle of those two extremes. So we semi-quarantine for another week, then back to business. Drugs are available to save lives, vaccines on the way. In the meantime at risk people should self quarantine for the foreseeable future.