COVID-19 Thread

[PeaveyFury]

You can still leave to get food, essentials, medical care, or to work or take a walk.

 

Basically, the way everyone should be living already anyway.

 

Bold added for emphasis, as this is a big difference- non-essential businesses have been closed. Meaning, you can go to get food and gas, etc., but a lot of other businesses will be shut down. Working from home will obviously continue for those that can, though.

 

I'm curious to see how various states define essential vs. non-essential.

 

For example I work in manufacturing producing paper. So I don't know where I'd fall on that.

 

Fair question, and I don't know if any of us truly know the answer until each state defines 'essential' as you note.

[Samurai Bucky]

You can still leave to get food, essentials, medical care, or to work or take a walk.

 

Basically, the way everyone should be living already anyway.

 

Bold added for emphasis, as this is a big difference- non-essential businesses have been closed. Meaning, you can go to get food and gas, etc., but a lot of other businesses will be shut down. Working from home will obviously continue for those that can, though.

 

I'm curious to see how various states define essential vs. non-essential.

 

For example I work in manufacturing producing paper. So I don't know where I'd fall on that.

Spoke to a client this morning who lives in a suburb of Chicago. He was ready to have the contractor come in and finish his kitchen -- non-essential. However, if you have a plumbing emergency -- essential.

 

The demand for TP is high -- do you create that type of paper?

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think three things might be keeping numbers down in Japan.

 

#1 - as a society, their customs shy away from alot of human contact in the day-to-day. Handshakes are rare. They also are a pretty hygenic due to other outbreaks that have wreaked havoc on their county over the years due to their population density.

 

#2 - they have apparently done a good job at identifying clusters of infection and completely isolating them. However I think that's kind of nonsense because it seems like once people realize they are infected it's a few days too late for them to have not passed it to someone else.

 

#3 - since they are hosting the summer olympics their government is pulling out all the stops to keep their infected number down in order to not have to cancel it later this summer - that includes fudging the numbers or limiting testing so the numbers stay artificially lower - pretty much the same thing China did from december through mid-January before they realized it was completely out of their control and they had to lock down the country after it was too late to prevent it spreading worldwide.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb that seems pretty sturdy based on the past few months and say #1 and #3 are the two biggest reasons their numbers seem very low. Only a matter of time before their numbers rise, unfortunately. However, their health care system is equipped with a ton of capacity compared to other countries, so they may be able to manage this much better than other developed countries without having to shut their economy down.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think three things might be keeping numbers down in Japan.

 

#1 - as a society, their customs shy away from alot of human contact in the day-to-day. Handshakes are rare. They also are a pretty hygenic due to other outbreaks that have wreaked havoc on their county over the years due to their population density.

 

#2 - they have apparently done a good job at identifying clusters of infection and completely isolating them. However I think that's kind of nonsense because it seems like once people realize they are infected it's a few days too late for them to have not passed it to someone else.

 

#3 - since they are hosting the summer olympics their government is pulling out all the stops to keep their infected number down in order to not have to cancel it later this summer - that includes fudging the numbers or limiting testing so the numbers stay artificially lower - pretty much the same thing China did from december through mid-January before they realized it was completely out of their control and they had to lock down the country after it was too late to prevent it spreading worldwide.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb that seems pretty sturdy based on the past few months and say #1 and #3 are the two biggest reasons their numbers seem very low. Only a matter of time before their numbers rise, unfortunately. However, their health care system is equipped with a ton of capacity compared to other countries, so they may be able to manage this much better than other developed countries without having to shut their economy down.

 

This is pretty spot-on. Japan is a remarkably clean country, even a hub like Tokyo when compared to Paris is remarkable.

[homer]

South Korea and Japan have also dealt with this before and were on top of it from the get go. Hopefully we learn from them after this.

[MrTPlush]

I don't really care for the positive test and death rates all that much. Comparing them between countries is much too fluky and many people not only will go under the radar, but simply are not allowed to even do a test. Not to mention the case numbers are simply behind the 8-ball...it doesn't accurately show the infected rate in present terms.

 

I am much more interested in what is being done to help the infected. That is essential because a vaccine is far far away. If some rumors are true and we already have things to dramatically help those reacting poorly that is a game changer.

[adambr2]

Definitely a lot more pushback the last day or two from those who are experiencing symptoms and can't get testing given the widespread celebrity testing.

 

https://ruinmyweek.com/trending/celebrities-are-getting-priority-testing/?utm_content=bufferb6897&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=pizzabottle&utm_campaign=okayish

[igor67]

The potential for even some relief from existing drugs is pretty big. I just get nervous because I do understand why there are still precautions in place and reasons to want to test them out under these new conditions at least somewhat rigorously. This is certainly a case where you are willing to take a few more risks and starting getting medicine out, but there are still potential unknowns. It does make it easier to see how with a few other things like the possibility that warmer weather helps to reduce the infection rate that the impact may end up on the low side.

[PeaveyFury]

igor, is it safe to assume that a lot of the testing is 'right to try' testing on actual patients currently effected?

[Samurai Bucky]

Definitely a lot more pushback the last day or two from those who are experiencing symptoms and can't get testing given the widespread celebrity testing.

 

https://ruinmyweek.com/trending/celebrities-are-getting-priority-testing/?utm_content=bufferb6897&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=pizzabottle&utm_campaign=okayish

I wonder if NFL owners are getting tested. I own stock in the Packers, so...

[Oxy]

I just read this thread now. A lot of reasonable people here. I posted on the main forum before seeing this one.

 

Does anybody have a good timeline about what policies China enacted in the last 3 months? Travel bans, gathering bans, quarantine guidelines, etc.? Obviously some sort of new testing occurred on Feb. 12th, as the case numbers jumped dramatically that day (then resumed the "normal" decreasing trendline soon after that.

 

They started to stem the growth curve less than two weeks after it began to spike going from 250 new cases a day on Feb 22nd to 3,884 cases on Feb 4th before decreasing again until March 1st when only 101 new cases were diagnosed.

 

Why/how did China's growth curve remain linear? Are those numbers wrong? Italy and the US seem to be following the more "predicted" models of exponential growth at this point.

 

 

(and yes, I know that over the course of many months there will be multiple peaks depending upon travel/local outbreaks varying spread of immunity/infection...)

[LouisEly]

Definitely a lot more pushback the last day or two from those who are experiencing symptoms and can't get testing given the widespread celebrity testing.

 

https://ruinmyweek.com/trending/celebrities-are-getting-priority-testing/?utm_content=bufferb6897&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=pizzabottle&utm_campaign=okayish

My understanding is that the NBA testing was done because a couple of players tested positive. Same with the XFL - a player on Seattle's team tested positive.

 

As for those experiencing symptoms who haven't gotten tested, did they report it to their doctor or a healthcare system? Do they even have a doctor? I'm pretty sure they have to report it to a doctor and have a healthcare practitioner order the test in order to get one. That's the protocol with my healthcare system. And that is likely why famous people are getting tested - their doctors are ordering them.

 

As for the "drive-through" testing, I'm generally not a fan unless there is an overabundance of testing kits/lab availability because every hypochondriac is going to be in line every day after every time they leave the house, wasting as many if not more tests than the "celebrities"/athletes supposedly are.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree Louis on the drive through testing. I am in my 30s and have been sick the last few days. Coughing and dry throat, but I can tell I'm OK. 99% sure it's just a bit of a cold, but I imagine a lot of people in my condition would want a test.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I just read this thread now. A lot of reasonable people here. I posted on the main forum before seeing this one.

 

Does anybody have a good timeline about what policies China enacted in the last 3 months? Travel bans, gathering bans, quarantine guidelines, etc.? Obviously some sort of new testing occurred on Feb. 12th, as the case numbers jumped dramatically that day (then resumed the "normal" decreasing trendline soon after that.

 

They started to stem the growth curve less than two weeks after it began to spike going from 250 new cases a day on Feb 22nd to 3,884 cases on Feb 4th before decreasing again until March 1st when only 101 new cases were diagnosed.

 

Why/how did China's growth curve remain linear? Are those numbers wrong? Italy and the US seem to be following the more "predicted" models of exponential growth at this point.

 

 

(and yes, I know that over the course of many months there will be multiple peaks depending upon travel/local outbreaks varying spread of immunity/infection...)

 

Because it's China producing those numbers and they arent verifiable. They spent over a month trying to cover this thing up or suppress actual cases during its initial outbreak, even temporarily halting testing, until it got beyond their reach and they had no choice but to start reporting some numbers to try and keep the world off their backs. Axios had a great timeline piece of what china did from early december through late january - In a country of 1.5 billion people there is no way their numbers published are anywhere close to accurate. There are countless cases that go undetected by western countries because of testing limitation. Its markedly worse in a country like china, which is much more populated.

 

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

 

I'd take China's published death toll and multiply it by at least 10, and take their published case toll and multiply it by around 100.

[Oxy]

 

https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

 

 

Thank you! I figured it was something like this--or at least that there are theories/narratives out there as to what has happened. Nobody will ever know the true number of infected anywhere because of the asymptomatic/carrier nature of the virus, but large death tolls are a very difficult thing to cover-up.

 

Now then, how about South Korea? Is there a timeline on their policies/guidelines?

 

Also a linear curve in that country, but it peaked somewhere between Feb 28th and March 5th...maxing out at somewhere around 800 cases per day. For the last 10 days it's been somewhere around 100 new cases per day. The death rate as remained fairly steady since early March with anywhere from 0 to 7 deaths per day and a grand total of 94 deaths.

 

There are more than 51 million people in South Korea, which is slightly bigger than Indiana at 38,000 square miles (just over HALF THE SIZE OF WISCONSIN (population 5.8 million). Cases- 8,652/51470000= 0.0168% incidence.... and deaths - 94/51470000 0.0001826%

 

Weird, wacky stuff, I tell ya. Still early, but wow. Are they fudging their numbers?

[MrTPlush]

In the greatest development yet, FIBs are to stay in their homes and not leave.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In the greatest development yet, FIBs are to stay in their homes and not leave.

 

I live in northern Wisconsin, and a lot of them are already here Your dang vacation home is not the right spot to shelter in place! Our hospital system is pretty lax up here as it is, without FIBs taxing it by trying to escape Chicago.

[Oxy]

So, if the ACTUAL number of cases is much, much, much higher than reported anywhere yet the death totals are NOT much higher (except in Italy...and who knows about Iran/China). So, this sounds an awful lot like influenza with an unknown but probably higher death rate and little to no herd immunity (notsure if there is any cross immunization from conventional coronavirus vs. novel coronavirus).

 

I know there is a lot of blowback at people comparing this to the flu...but...it sure seems an awful lot like...the flu... (and that's not meant to diminish the seriousness of the threat. That variability in the death rate IS a gigantic dealbreaker and we don't really know what that number is--the difference between 0.1% and 2% is potentially millions of lives).

 

I know I'm late to the party, but I've generally tried not to think about the whole deal until the last day or two.

[3and2Fastball]

My hope is that there is already some herd immunity here in the USA that we don’t (yet) know about because of lack of testing. There were thousands and thousands of Americans flying back and forth to China up until the travel ban.

 

2-3 weeks ago I had what I thought was a “bad cold”. Sore throat, dry cough, no nasal stuff, high temps. It was the worst cold I’ve had in a long long time. Lots of people in Madison had it, it ran rampant through the schools. I’m putting it at 50/50 it was Covid-19.

[burnzy24]

2-3 weeks ago I had what I thought was a “bad cold”. Sore throat, dry cough, no nasal stuff, high temps. It was the worst cold I’ve had in a long long time. Lots of people in Madison had it, it ran rampant through the schools. I’m putting it at 50/50 it was Covid-19.

 

I had this as well around the same time and work in Madison. Worst sore throat I've ever had and a 102 degree fever. I felt it was just a cold but knowing what I know now I probably should have quarantined and got tested.

[homer]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different

 

This is why Covid - 19 is not the flu:

 

Data from China shows that each coronavirus case seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people. That's higher than flu. The average patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others.

 

New research suggests that the higher number of infections per coronavirus patient may be related to the frequency of presymptomatic transmission — when people who have been infected are not yet showing symptoms but in fact could be contagious. An analysis of data from China found that 13% of cases were likely caused by people spreading coronavirus before they started coughing and feeling achy.

 

By contrast, flu is most contagious in the three or four days after symptoms begin, according to the CDC, and presymptomatic transmission doesn't seem to be a major driver of new cases

.

 

While flu cases are found year-round, the flu does wane when the weather gets warm. In the U.S., each flu season varies, but the number of new flu cases tends to peak between December and February, and tail off by the month of May.

 

Researchers think it has to do with how people spend more time outside when it's warmer, and how higher heat and humidity can cause some viruses to decay more quickly. They're also studying how the immune system may fluctuate with the seasons and exposure to sunlight.

 

But Dr. Bruce Aylward, an adviser to WHO, says don't count on a similar pattern for COVID-19, which is thriving in warm, tropical places: "It's roaring in Singapore. It's not flu season in Singapore. It's roaring in the southern part of China. It's not flu season."

[Samurai Bucky]

Fortunately, my cold is requiring multiple handkerchiefs. No fever. It felt like it might be strep a few days ago, but fortunately, phlegm is aplenty.

 

Stupid question (wait... there are no stupid questions, just stupid people that ask questions): if I get tested today and it comes back negative, when should I go back and get tested? Just because I don't have it today, doesn't mean that I will never get it.

[3and2Fastball]

Fortunately, my cold is requiring multiple handkerchiefs. No fever. It felt like it might be strep a few days ago, but fortunately, phlegm is aplenty.

 

Stupid question (wait... there are no stupid questions, just stupid people that ask questions): if I get tested today and it comes back negative, when should I go back and get tested? Just because I don't have it today, doesn't mean that I will never get it.

 

My guess is they won’t test you if you don’t have a fever and there is nasal stuff going on

 

I’m hoping at some point for people like my family who already might have had it, there will be blood tests to show if we indeed have antibodies... for what it’s worth, we’re very much staying home, doing the social distancing thing, not at all thinking “we already had it so there’s nothing to worry about”

 

If I did know I already had it and am no longer contagious though, I would for sure volunteer at food pantries or somewhere where I can help...

 

Comprehensive testing will give us, as a nation, much to work with...

[Oxy]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different

 

This is why Covid - 19 is not the flu:

 

But Dr. Bruce Aylward, an adviser to WHO, says don't count on a similar pattern for COVID-19, which is thriving in warm, tropical places: "It's roaring in Singapore. It's not flu season in Singapore. It's roaring in the southern part of China. It's not flu season."

 

Thanks! Apparently he is getting different numbers/info than the numbers WHO is giving to that Worldometer website...or he has an extremely sensitive definition of "roaring," or that interview is old and it was supposed to be roaring by now but isn't really...(likely thanks to distancing measures). Again, I can understand how wildly off the numbers can be...except for the death one. Especially in places like Singapore, South Korea, Japan, India...

[adambr2]

Germany has become the gold standard for handling COVID-19. Anyone with mild symptoms can be tested. Easy drive thru testing. Almost 20K tests and just a 0.2% death rate.