COVID-19 impact on MLB season

[homer]

This is not the flu. Stop comparing it to the flu.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

 

I'll go with the MDs and people who've dedicated their careers to infectious disease over baseball fans on this one.

[SoCalBrewfan]

For a sobering statistic, given the overwhelming of the healthcare system in Italy...this is obviously not the only number that matters, but it shows why flattening the curve to make sure the system is not overwhelmed is so important:

 

Hospital beds per 1000 people, 2017 (except US, which is a 2016 number):

 

Japan 13.05

South Korea 12.27

Germany 8

France 5.98

China 4.34

Italy 3.18

US 2.77

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

[bork]

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

 

Yes, what happens to all these businesses that are being forced to shutdown? Their expenses don't go to zero, when their income drops to zero. A lot of businesses are going to be bankrupt long before the shutdowns end.

[homer]

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

 

Yes, what happens to all these businesses that are being forced to shutdown? Their expenses don't go to zero, when their income drops to zero. A lot of businesses are going to be bankrupt long before the shutdowns end.

 

Probably true. These are not easy decisions.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Probably true. These are not easy decisions.

 

Not easy at all.

 

Right now is the time for drastic intervention. After 2-4 weeks, though, we're going to have to find a middle ground that reduces risk without also increasing suspicion and fear and economic fallout. I'm not sure we are, culturally, very good at "middle ground" stuff, so that's going to be a major test.

[JackNicholson1974]

Shut it down for 30 days (society) as we approach April 15, reevaluate. If it needs to be extended, extend it. But to say it needs to be 2-3 months or longer is a bit much. on my way in to work the news was reporting this is the "new norm" for the next couple months, by the time I was driving home the same network was saying this could last until August or November. Give me a break. We need to take it one day (heck even a month!) at a time and not just write off all of 2020. Our economy will not be able to last 6 months with no commerce.

[yfinn6]

I would be shocked if we have baseball before the traditional All-Star break time frame.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If we don't have baseball before the ASG I don't think we're going to have it at all. That's mid July.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

If we don't have baseball before the ASG I don't think we're going to have it at all. That's mid July.

 

I am on the other side of this. If MLB can salvage 60 games, won't they? That's a third of your revenue...

[owbc]

If we don't have baseball before the ASG I don't think we're going to have it at all. That's mid July.

 

I am on the other side of this. If MLB can salvage 60 games, won't they? That's a third of your revenue...

 

A 60-game season would be incredibly fun. With that small of a sample almost every team would have a chance at the playoffs. And the games would be very high stakes.

 

We don't really know when things might resume until the number of cases peaks, and we don't even know how many cases there are yet since they still are not testing at the levels needed to figure that out. I agree that it will probably be sometime in mid-summer.

[TURBO]

It would be great to not have the same people constantly harping that one game means nothing when they play 162. This would surely put some urgency in every game played...

[pacopete4]

Any baseball is the best answer. 50-60-75 games. Doesn’t matter. Just play. Hell, I was thinking about this earlier that of course one of our window years as a Brewers fan would be this type of year.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Any baseball is the best answer. 50-60-75 games. Doesn’t matter. Just play. Hell, I was thinking about this earlier that of course one of our window years as a Brewers fan would be this type of year.

 

Just to distract from the seriousness of all this with a hypothetical, I think a shortened season would help the Brewers. Makes it easier to win with depth, especially on the pitching side. Plus, we have a manager who understands win probability. A delayed start maybe means Knebel is closer to ready too, and bullpen matters a lot over 60 games. Given what a contained mess the NL Central is, more randomness is probably better overall for each individual team.

 

Honestly, I still think the league can play 90-120 games. As is, a June 1st start date allows you to get about 100 games without adding too much on the back end. If you're willing to play until, say, November 15th, you can probably squeeze in another 15 games. July 1st start puts you closer to 85-90 if you're willing to play into November.

 

EDIT: Just to link to a Fangraphs piece about ZiPS projections: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-do-the-playoff-odds-change-in-a-shorter-season/

 

Basically, a shortened season helps everyone in the NL Central slightly, except the Cubs. The Pirates are the biggest beneficiaries, as one might figure.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Cool Hand Lucroy

[3and2Fastball]

I miss Baseball so much that I’m having fun watching my kid play as the Brewers in the new MLB The Show video game that just came out.

 

video game Keston Hiura has been raking against RHP’s

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I won't pretend to know the financials well enough but I would guess with the 162-game season the money is up and down a lot throughout the year for many teams. If you play 60 games and only 8 are at home on the weekend I'm guessing that may be a problem. There's a lot of expense involved in a season and it might be hard to pull off, but IDK. I know the TV is a much bigger deal than the attendance. I think a 50-game baseball season sounds like a lot of fun. Just don't know how realistic it is.

[PeaveyFury]

Just a reminder that political posts aren’t allowed.

[Dragonbait]

Restaurant and team store officially closed

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Restaurant and team store officially closed

 

Makes me glad I bothered to go there on Saturday (team store) on a whim that this would happen.

[Zad Fnark]

Glad I made it to "The Restaurant that Shall be Named Later" a couple weeks ago. Funny as they were mowing the grass then. I guess it grows all year long.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That was one of the saddest parts of being down there. The field was beautiful and had all kinds of equipment on it. It was ready to go. Don't believe they leave the entrance tents up all year but those were up too. I keep thinking about the abandoned Citi Field in Avengers.

[MrTPlush]

Glad I made it to "The Restaurant that Shall be Named Later" a couple weeks ago. Funny as they were mowing the grass then. I guess it grows all year long.

 

It actually hibernates in the winter. Eventually sometime in December they open the roof to 'shock' it and then it gets covered with a tarp. I think they woke it up just before Spring Training started. It is essential to get it healthy.

 

As one who was really looking forward to 50th anniversary I wouldn't be too sad if the season gets axed and the 50th thus has to take place next year. Really ruins the entire thing quite a bit if all the dates get messed up etc. I will be okay regardless with what happens, but that is my one bright side if it is canceled completely.

[jerichoholicninja]

No matter what you think about how much money owners are actually making or how much they can actually spend, it will be interesting to see what kind of contracts are given out in the next year or so because the teams are not making money right now and could very well lose a lot of money if they are wind up paying players and staff with no or very few games being played in 2020. I wonder if we will see a bunch of players nearing free agency sign extensions knowing there might not actually be much money to go around the next few years.

[stalton]

I wonder what will happen to all the bonuses for ABs, IP, and the like. Do counting stats get prorated?

[JackNicholson1974]

Reports this morning that the draft may not happen this year.