COVID-19 impact on MLB season

[homer]

By the way, this is a test run for a bug that is as contagious as the measles and as powerful as ebola.

 

If there is anything positive to come of this it's that. We are going to face that someday and we need to be more prepared than we are now. This might be the wake up call needed to get our house in order for the day when a major killer disease comes knocking.

 

I worry that all the social distancing will do what it's supposed to and next time people won't think they'll have to do it because "It was no big deal."

[OldSchoolSnapper]

By the way, this is a test run for a bug that is as contagious as the measles and as powerful as ebola.

 

If there is anything positive to come of this it's that. We are going to face that someday and we need to be more prepared than we are now. This might be the wake up call needed to get our house in order for the day when a major killer disease comes knocking.

 

I worry that all the social distancing will do what it's supposed to and next time people won't think they'll have to do it because "It was no big deal."

 

I've had the exact same thought and think it's pretty likely.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep. If it works, the narrative will be slanted far more towards 'overreation' than 'it worked as we planned!'

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yep. If it works, the narrative will be slanted far more towards 'overreation' than 'it worked as we planned!'

 

Disagree a bit about this. I've seen alot of comparisons between initial US response to Swine Flue (H1N1) back in 2009 and Coronavirus this year - If these proactive measures to limit social exposures work and the outbreak is able to be effectively managed, comparison of the sheer numbers between these two outbreaks will be startling. H1N1 killed up to 500,000 people during its first year worldwide, and its target population was actually younger people. 60M in the US got sick from it, and 12,500 died from it. Next to nothing was done worldwide in terms of banning travel, cancelling public gatherings, etc....IMO the biggest reason that was the case is the outbreak came on the heels of the financial crisis which had the entire world in economic hardship - government officials wanted nothing to do with any actions that would be perceived to further damage the economy at that time.

 

All indications are the coronavirus is a highly contagius virus that can wreak havoc on older/medically vulnerable populations if no drastic measures are taken to try and limit its rate of spread. Thankfully, this outbreak comes at a time when the world and more specifically for us the US economy was very strong - so while taking these measures hurts pocketbooks and will likely run the economy into a recession, getting a handle on the disease will inevitably lead to a significant bounceback simply by day-to-day life reverting back to normal.

 

At least from my perspective, seeing the extraordinary measures being taken now makes me even more startled that they weren't taken previously during other new virus outbreaks, and I wonder how many lives could have been spared had better responses been coordinated then.

[MrTPlush]

I also disagree. There are many countries that will be looked at as examples that failed and are getting hit hard. If the US gets out pretty unscathed I think people will understand that “success”...not just call it an overreaction.

 

Of course there is always going to be a crowd that thinks it was a huge overreaction etc. People think this is a joke and nothing will really change that.

 

On the MLB topic, Trevor Bauer is organizing a sandlot game. He has confirmed it will happen.

[jerichoholicninja]

By the way, this is a test run for a bug that is as contagious as the measles and as powerful as ebola.

 

If there is anything positive to come of this it's that. We are going to face that someday and we need to be more prepared than we are now. This might be the wake up call needed to get our house in order for the day when a major killer disease comes knocking.

 

I worry that all the social distancing will do what it's supposed to and next time people won't think they'll have to do it because "It was no big deal."

 

Like most things in life, the majority of people have already made up their mind about whether we did enough or didn't or if worked or didn't and nothing is going to change that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Since no one answered: RTBNL is very much open, as is the team store.

[Oxy]

Like most things in life, the majority of people have already made up their mind about whether we did enough or didn't or if worked or didn't and nothing is going to change that.

 

Hopefully those who determine the "gold standard" of screening AND/OR diagnostic testing for the presence and activity of a novel pathogen have more of an open mind than the majority of people....that's a tricky thing though.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Ken Burns Baseball documentary now streaming for free in PBS app. Thanks coronavirus.

[RollieTime]

MLBPA has told players to live where they feel most comfortable for “at least” the next 4-6 weeks.

[bucks2281]

CDC indicating that people should avoid gatherings of 50+ people for 8 weeks - that’s May 10. We are definitely not seeing baseball until at least June.

[MrTPlush]

Realistic goal is indeed June 1st.

[bucks2281]

A more conservative estimate is probably July 4 and an 82 game season

[CheezWizHed]

I wonder if they will "resume spring training" for a short time to ramp players back up? Or do you allow for increased MLB pitchers so they can ramp-up their innings during real games?

[MrTPlush]

I wonder if they will "resume spring training" for a short time to ramp players back up? Or do you allow for increased MLB pitchers so they can ramp-up their innings during real games?

 

They have already stated some kind of ST would be required. Doubt they would change that. Since they are sending all these players home they really won’t be doing much training.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I honestly don't think we're going to have a season. Hope I'm wrong.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'd guess based on my completely unprofessional but gray area opinion that we'll still have about half a season. I hope so anyways.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I mean, technically, if things look better in, say, 5 weeks, you could start ramping up and be ready for baseball mid-May. That is, of course, way optimistic and probably not adviseable.

 

Here is the hard part. There probably is a simulation where the measures we have all begun to take work. Where people suddenly are so single-mindedly focused on reducing sickness that we succeed. That is probably the 5 percent best-case. But this is unique, so all we have is modeling. Who knows what to expect in reality. I feel like this is totally unpredictable, so day-by-day and hope for the best.

[jerichoholicninja]

Interesting to see how they handle service time in a less-than-162 game season. Let's say it's a 100 game season and a player spends the whole year on the 25 man roster will they only count the actual number of days that is or will it be like a pro-rated amount.

[Ennder]

I honestly don't think we're going to have a season. Hope I'm wrong.

 

I don't see any way this is true to be honest and that is even looking worst case. The next week will completely change how we view this for better or worse. Finally getting the proper testing and the early infected will start to finally be called recovered. Right now we are in the dark a lot because of the lack of testing but it really does not seem to be another Italy from what I can tell.

 

And as much as some posters on this site hate it, the truth is these things tend to slow down in summer, even the spanish flu which started in the summer of 1918 was pretty mild during the summer months and then hit with a vengeance come fall. They don't tend to hit in the winter because oddly enough the normal flu tends to block them. Most of these hit in the spring and then slow way down in summer. There has never been one of these viruses that stayed strong in the summer. This would have to be the outlier, heat and sunlight are not kind to viruses.

You can't know what is going to happen until it happens since this is an uncharted virus but most likely baseball will resume in the summer.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You see no way that's true? No way?

 

The CDC has recommended against groups of 50 people for 8 weeks. The problem with the Spanish flu comparison is that millions of people were not crossing oceans regularly in 1918. This is an enormous country and this thing has spread all over the place. The reported numbers mean nothing, lag by weeks, and don't reflect the hordes of people who will get this and never have it documented. Those people are still making other people sick. Too many people are ignoring the recommendations altogether as well.

 

I think it is entirely possible there IS a season. I think it's also much more likely than some people realize that there is not one. That all depends on a bunch of things, but to say there is 'no way' that happens in the worst case scenario is just being dismissive.

 

Also on the warm weather - you've said this a few times now and I'm sure people are hoping that, but the Harvard School of Public Health has already shot that down for the most part and said it is entirely possible if not probably that the weather will do nothing significant.

 

Nobody knows what's going to happen with MLB or NBA. They can keep stating their hopes but that's all they are. Hopes.

[Oxy]

We are still at least a week away from knowing anything. Even if Italy is the worst case scenario, the numbers don't seem to be catastrophic (perhaps near catastrophic in certain locales). The best case scenarios of South Korea and Japan would make all of the shutdowns an over-reaction. As much as the whole "better safe than sorry" mantra is a nice thing to say, it's just not actually true. Just as there is always a point where it makes sense to trade Christian Yelich, there is also a point where the economic impacts of "safety" just aren't worth it.

 

As callous as this sounds, every life "saved" by measures of social isolation will still die at some point.

[brewcrewdue80]

Looking at a website that tracks from when China declared on Jan 22nd 571 cases. From that point Active cases rose for them until Feb 17th at a peak of 58,016. Currently sit at 9,893.

If you go by the same 500+ active cases that became true for the US on March 8th. A full week gone by it's reached 3,553. China a full week later had 7,414 active cases. We sit at less than half from where they stood on the same timeline. We're about 3weeks away from a peak of active cases on the same timeline. Considering the actions having been put in place, and the lower # of active cases, we just may peak in 2weeks and see active cases at that time reduce. Also, FWIW, China according to this website has had 87.37% recovery already. The US according to the website has only 10 serious cases at the moment. Not even 1% of the current active cases. Food for thought, but I believe this is going to end quicker than the feartrain'd media is predicting. The lack of serious cases will bring back a reality the virus isn't something to fear as much as it's being portrayed.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We are still at least a week away from knowing anything. Even if Italy is the worst case scenario, the numbers don't seem to be catastrophic (perhaps near catastrophic in certain locales). The best case scenarios of South Korea and Japan would make all of the shutdowns an over-reaction. As much as the whole "better safe than sorry" mantra is a nice thing to say, it's just not actually true. Just as there is always a point where it makes sense to trade Christian Yelich, there is also a point where the economic impacts of "safety" just aren't worth it.

 

As callous as this sounds, every life "saved" by measures of social isolation will still die at some point.

 

The last sentence is so odd I'm not even sure what to say. By that logic catastrophe is impossible because everyone dies.

 

Using reported data to predict what's going to happen with this thing is a fool's errand. It is wildly inaccurate, depends entirely on the testing protocol of that country (the US is NOT in good standing there), is believed to lag by weeks, and only includes people who actually get a test.

[adambr2]

We are still at least a week away from knowing anything. Even if Italy is the worst case scenario, the numbers don't seem to be catastrophic (perhaps near catastrophic in certain locales). The best case scenarios of South Korea and Japan would make all of the shutdowns an over-reaction. As much as the whole "better safe than sorry" mantra is a nice thing to say, it's just not actually true. Just as there is always a point where it makes sense to trade Christian Yelich, there is also a point where the economic impacts of "safety" just aren't worth it.

 

As callous as this sounds, every life "saved" by measures of social isolation will still die at some point.

 

Using reported data to predict what's going to happen with this thing is a fool's errand. It is wildly inaccurate, depends entirely on the testing protocol of that country (the US is NOT in good standing there), is believed to lag by weeks, and only includes people who actually get a test.

 

This is a good thing as well as a bad thing. So many people are going to get COVID-19, feel a little under the weather at home but not too bad, eventually recover, and go about their lives. These people will never be tested or accounted for. It is what makes nailing the mortality rate down on this really difficult.