COVID-19 impact on MLB season

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

It may also be worth remembering, in terms of the long-term, that most folks who study viruses agree that viral mutation tends to lead toward less lethal strains. Deadly viruses reduce their chances of spreading. A dead host can't shed virus.

 

I also have to keep reminding myself that this isn't about the risk posed to a single individual. I'm not staying inside to reduce my own chances of getting the virus. I'm staying inside to reduce the possibility that massive, unchecked spreading swamps the health care system and leads to unnecessary death. This is less of an issue if you're dealing with a group of folks who won't really interact with the broader community.

 

I think that's what this MLB proposal is about. Obviously, it should be done with full, informed consent of the players (and, even then, I'm personally leery of it, but there are benefits to having baseball, and those are worth thinking about). But if you figure out a way to isolate what is a fairly low-risk population (though the fact that they're men does increase the risk, and managers maybe would need to be EXTRA careful), then that MIGHT be doable as a kind of in-between stage. We're not there yet. But there is going to be a time when you have to open up SOME things just to reduce fear, panic, pressure on the supply chain, etc., and you might as well start thinking about what that might look like now. I would be shocked if this proposal happened. But it's good to start considering the middle game here, given that it appears we are at or will soon be at the peak of this in the coming weeks. We're going to be in a weird limbo barring either a vaccine or, to a lesser extent, relatively effective antiviral therapy for a while. We need to figure out Social Distancing Lite, and, to the extent that this proposal starts that conversation, I'm glad it's out there.

[CheezWizHed]

MN Gov Walz just extended the stay at home to May 4th, which isn't surprising. Looking at the John Hopkins data tracking site, it looks like the US has peaked in cases/day (though the midwest might not be there yet). Using how long it took to ramp to the peak (if that is the peak) and assuming an approximate standard distribution, it would be right around that point where the new cases/day would be pretty minimal. No, I'm not a medical professional, just looking at the numbers statistically.

 

My guess is that "normal" work activities will resume first with recreational activities like baseball following after it is clear there is no second wave. I wonder if baseball and basketball might start without fans first to get things moving. Then resume normal sporting activities later.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

IMO there's a psychological aspect to this that makes starting without fans a wise decision. Going from 0 to 100 is going to be hard for a lot of people. If it's eased into with 3 weeks of no-fan televised baseball I think it becomes easier for people to go back to a game. Assuming it is safe as realistically possible to do so.

[CheezWizHed]

agreed. For most things (even going back to work), there is going to need to be a ramp up plan. A 'test the water' activity that builds people's confidence.

[DHonks]

So they're going to take 800 players plus support staff and stash them in hotels and allow them only to travel from hotels to the fields and back for how long? Does that honestly seem workable? I mean honestly?

 

I'm asking this question as someone who absolutely does not want to miss a season of baseball. I don't want to lose 25% or 50% of a season of Christian Yelich in his prime. But I just don't see how a plan like this is feasible. On paper it sounds fine, but just the Logistics of it don't make sense.

 

To me it seems very feasible. Arizona's economy has been decimated by this. Our two busiest months for resorts and tourism are March and April. One major hotel near me had 1 of 750 rooms occupied last week. Not sure why they were even open. I would start some east coast games at 10am so that people stuck at home could watch all day. It's better than watching The Office re-runs like I've been doing. While I'm grading and planning for students, I would have baseball games on all day/evening.

 

The reality is MLB wants to play, Americans need a distraction, players want to get paid, owners want to make money. The weather in May and June is usually beautiful here. Sometimes it can be like 100º, but some years it can be like 65-75º during the day. I'd guess 75-90º would be normal for day games, and anyone who has been in the dry heat knows that it's VERY comfortable at night. It's possible to nap in the shade on a 100º day because it's comfortable in the shade without humidity.

 

My only issue with this is that I don't know how we could keep 900-1100 players (because they'd need extra minor leaguers working out at the facilities in case of injury) from venturing out of the hotels and interacting with society. Throw in that seemingly half of MLB lives in Phoenix/Scottsdale, and it would be hard to keep them from interacting much with family/friends (ie, social distancing). Perhaps families could be quarantined in the hotels with the players, with only families being allowed to use resort amenities like pools to keep kids busy. Every MLB player gets their own suite on the road anyways, so having some family along wouldn't be too much more of a cost.

[Ennder]

 

That's really my big hang up here. And it's been my hang up all along with a plan like this is suggested. Keeping these guys in what amounts to quarantine for three or four or five months just seems unworkable. People are trying to convince us that it is, but there's several reasons that this can fall apart. I understand that they expect to have quick test kits in place soon. But these guys can tell us that they want to play and are okay with this plan but two months of having no contact with anybody but other baseball dudes and many of them may change their minds.

 

Nobody is talking about 3 or 4 or 5 months here. The word indefinitely just means there is no specific target date. If the league doesn't think they can move into normal stadiums for 3 months they just won't go along with this plan. This would almost certainly be a short term bridge to playing in normal stadiums. You have 2 weeks of spring training and then hopefully only 1 or 2 weeks of real games and then things have calmed down to where you go back to normal stadiums. In the past I said I thought we would get spring training in mid June and real games in July. This just allows this plan to move up 2-4 weeks earlier than what I thought would happen.

[folly412]

Nobody is talking about 3 or 4 or 5 months here. The word indefinitely just means there is no specific target date. If the league doesn't think they can move into normal stadiums for 3 months they just won't go along with this plan. This would almost certainly be a short term bridge to playing in normal stadiums. You have 2 weeks of spring training and then hopefully only 1 or 2 weeks of real games and then things have calmed down to where you go back to normal stadiums. In the past I said I thought we would get spring training in mid June and real games in July. This just allows this plan to move up 2-4 weeks earlier than what I thought would happen.

 

Wondering if somewhat following this timeline, the All Star break is essentially a "go home break". Maybe a couple of teams in hot spots have to stay in Arizona, but optimistically it then becomes a four day window for teams to relocate and locals to show some excitement for their team coming home (whether or not they can get into the park). This could get a 100 game season with an early June start, which seems more than enough to give an adequate balance of not rushing things, not having a too short season, and not going too loony in making silly rules just to get games in.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

That's really my big hang up here. And it's been my hang up all along with a plan like this is suggested. Keeping these guys in what amounts to quarantine for three or four or five months just seems unworkable. People are trying to convince us that it is, but there's several reasons that this can fall apart. I understand that they expect to have quick test kits in place soon. But these guys can tell us that they want to play and are okay with this plan but two months of having no contact with anybody but other baseball dudes and many of them may change their minds.

 

Nobody is talking about 3 or 4 or 5 months here. The word indefinitely just means there is no specific target date. If the league doesn't think they can move into normal stadiums for 3 months they just won't go along with this plan. This would almost certainly be a short term bridge to playing in normal stadiums. You have 2 weeks of spring training and then hopefully only 1 or 2 weeks of real games and then things have calmed down to where you go back to normal stadiums. In the past I said I thought we would get spring training in mid June and real games in July. This just allows this plan to move up 2-4 weeks earlier than what I thought would happen.

 

If that's true, then why bother with these games in AZ? If it's only 2-4 weeks, just skip the weird baseball step. I would rather just start in July playing in regulat stadiums with fans, and make it exactly half a season, 81 games.

[DHonks]

 

That's really my big hang up here. And it's been my hang up all along with a plan like this is suggested. Keeping these guys in what amounts to quarantine for three or four or five months just seems unworkable. People are trying to convince us that it is, but there's several reasons that this can fall apart. I understand that they expect to have quick test kits in place soon. But these guys can tell us that they want to play and are okay with this plan but two months of having no contact with anybody but other baseball dudes and many of them may change their minds.

 

Nobody is talking about 3 or 4 or 5 months here. The word indefinitely just means there is no specific target date. If the league doesn't think they can move into normal stadiums for 3 months they just won't go along with this plan. This would almost certainly be a short term bridge to playing in normal stadiums. You have 2 weeks of spring training and then hopefully only 1 or 2 weeks of real games and then things have calmed down to where you go back to normal stadiums. In the past I said I thought we would get spring training in mid June and real games in July. This just allows this plan to move up 2-4 weeks earlier than what I thought would happen.

 

If that's true, then why bother with these games in AZ? If it's only 2-4 weeks, just skip the weird baseball step. I would rather just start in July playing in regulat stadiums with fans, and make it exactly half a season, 81 games.

 

I think it would be foolish for MLB and MLBPA to miss an opportunity to be part of the US getting over this. Like I said, some areas may still be under stay-at-home orders in mid-to-late May. this is an opportunity to get huge ratings and give people a distraction. Plus, one month less likely means less TV revenue for owners and lower salaries for players

[mtrebs]

I agree that getting some games in early in AZ would be very beneficial for the MLB. Being the only sport after a this break may actually bring in some new fans.

 

I’d rather keep the games as “normal” as possible. Forget the double-headers and this seven-inning business. Just have as many teams play as possible in a day of nine-inning ball. Sure, you can have tweaks to shorten the games, like no mound visits, etc., but at least you are keeping the integrity of the game in place... it’s just that you’d be having a shortened season (which has happened in the past).

[Ennder]

 

If that's true, then why bother with these games in AZ? If it's only 2-4 weeks, just skip the weird baseball step. I would rather just start in July playing in regulat stadiums with fans, and make it exactly half a season, 81 games.

 

Because they can think they can get games in at normal stadiums in June/July they can't know it for sure. If they plan on an open day of July 1st and anything goes wrong they lose the season. If they played under these controlled settings and something goes wrong they still have a season, they are just stuck in Arizona longer. Adding every team travelling all over the country adds an insane amount of risk to the players so that has to be the step they are most careful with. That part is riskier than starting the games up in the first place is.

[igor67]

A shortened season dramatically increases the chances of someone hitting .400 again too.

[mtrebs]

A shortened season dramatically increases the chances of someone hitting .400 again too.

 

I wouldn’t think stats from a shortened season would count towards single-season records, would it?

 

Edit: I guess this wouldn’t necessarily be a record, but I wouldn’t think people would recognize it in the long term. Or is there a minimum plate appearances for that?

[Pugger]

 

Then we all better be prepared to be in quarantine until Christmas. It will probably take that long for a vaccine to be developed and deemed safe to dispense to the public. And I doubt a vaccine will actually cure it. These kinds of viruses, once they appear, really don't go away. And they often mutate. I fear our lives will never be normal again and the upcoming depression will be disastrous for this country. Be prepared for worse unemployment than we saw in the 1930s.

 

It's easy to feel discouraged and fearful in this time but the technology we have to combat viruses is incredible and scientists from around the world have dropped everything they were doing to work on COVID. It's not the first pandemic and it won't be the last but we'll get through this!

 

And given what a tough time it is, it would be especially nice to have baseball back. That's why it is great to know that MLB is trying to make it happen in some form or another.

 

Boy, I sure hope you are right. This is a strange time in our lives. We really cannot go on like this indefinitely - everyone in hiding and most businesses closed. I posted the above when I heard we might be living like this until there is a vaccine so I got super depressed and fearful. We have to make sure the 'cure' won't do more damage than the disease. I too miss baseball and other sports.

[sveumrules]

A shortened season dramatically increases the chances of someone hitting .400 again too.

 

I wouldn’t think stats from a shortened season would count towards single-season records, would it?

 

Edit: I guess this wouldn’t necessarily be a record, but I wouldn’t think people would recognize it in the long term. Or is there a minimum plate appearances for that?

 

If someone hits .440 in like 250 PAs over an 80 game season, sure they'll set the single season batting average record, there'll just be a huge jazz trick next to it.

[PeaveyFury]

there'll just be a huge jazz trick next to it.

 

This is my favorite autocorrect ever.

[DuWayne Steurer]

There are already players coming out and saying they don't want to be sequestered away from their families. One player said they can void his contract if that's what the plan is. I don't know what the percentage is, and obviously this is still in the planning stages, but sounds like they have a little bit of work to do. like someone else said, do they have to quarantine hotel and cleaning staff as well? Food service staff? Etc, etc?

 

Also, I don't want 7 inning games and a bunch of rule changes to make this work. If it's going to be a glorified exhibition season that basically doesn't count, I'll just watch replays on MLB network and FSN. If the whole point of playing in empty parks is so owners can make some tv revenue, I'll pass on that, and spend my summer doing something else. I love baseball, but the idea of an exhibition season that essentially "doesn't count" just personally doesn't appeal to me. Make it 9 inning games, with mound visits and play baseball the way we've always done it (with Manfreds already stupid rule changes, I guess), and say it counts, for better or worse, or don't do it at all.

 

I can understand saying "if someone hits .440 in a 60 game season they're not the all time record holder", but I honestly don't even see that happening. They're talking about getting this going in May/June, which SHOULD net around a 90-100 game season. Nobody is going to hit .400 over that time frame. Except maybe Christian Yelich....

[DHonks]

There are already players coming out and saying they don't want to be sequestered away from their families. One player said they can void his contract if that's what the plan is. I don't know what the percentage is, and obviously this is still in the planning stages, but sounds like they have a little bit of work to do. like someone else said, do they have to quarantine hotel and cleaning staff as well? Food service staff? Etc, etc?

 

Why not? outstanding resorts are running at 0% occupancy, and they don't see many guests in a typical summer anyways. One local resort with 750 rooms had 1 occupied last week. The hotel can occur 40+ rooms to essential support staff for free. MLB teams already have to give every player a nice room or suite. perhaps the resorts make it affordable for players or teams to add an extra room for family.

 

My only issue with the plan is that since seemingly half of MLB players live in the Valley, how would we keep them from going home and interacting with the outside world (not that the outside world is doing much these days)? But these are questions that can be answered by MLB and MLBPA officials better than by armchair fans on a message board. The key is that there is a viable opportunity and plan.

[igor67]

I'm glad folks caught on that nothing is more baseball than arguing about whether or not hitting .400 in a short season should count. I would also agree that if you can't do real games then you shouldn't do it at all.

[DuWayne Steurer]

There are already players coming out and saying they don't want to be sequestered away from their families. One player said they can void his contract if that's what the plan is. I don't know what the percentage is, and obviously this is still in the planning stages, but sounds like they have a little bit of work to do. like someone else said, do they have to quarantine hotel and cleaning staff as well? Food service staff? Etc, etc?

 

Why not? outstanding resorts are running at 0% occupancy, and they don't see many guests in a typical summer anyways. One local resort with 750 rooms had 1 occupied last week. The hotel can occur 40+ rooms to essential support staff for free. MLB teams already have to give every player a nice room or suite. perhaps the resorts make it affordable for players or teams to add an extra room for family.

 

My only issue with the plan is that since seemingly half of MLB players live in the Valley, how would we keep them from going home and interacting with the outside world (not that the outside world is doing much these days)? But these are questions that can be answered by MLB and MLBPA officials better than by armchair fans on a message board. The key is that there is a viable opportunity and plan.

 

 

Sure they "can" give rooms to staff and such, but do those staff want to be quarantined so MLB can play baseball? How much do they have to sweeten the pot for those employees? Like you said, there's a lot of questions that we don't know the answer to, and that's stuff they have to work out. In the end, to me, I think there's a lot of logistics with a LOT of people that don't make sense. I'm just "a guy" and I'm probably wrong, but you're asking a lot of people to spend a few weeks or a few months away from their families and the outside world. You can say 'it's only a few weeks' and that sounds fine, but what if it goes into August? MLB can't ask players, support staff, hotel and food service staff to quarantine and then promise them it'll be 3 weeks. It could be 3 more weeks. It might be July. It might be September. I can imagine that's a chance a lot of people don't want to take.

[owbc]

I don't understand why they would have to quarantine. The assumption is built in that this would be done with frequent testing and removing anyone that gets infected. Obviously they would have to be smart about social distancing and avoid any rapid spreading of the virus, but I don't think the idea is that there would be some sort of quarantined group of MLB players and support staff.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't understand why they would have to quarantine. The assumption is built in that this would be done with frequent testing and removing anyone that gets infected. Obviously they would have to be smart about social distancing and avoid any rapid spreading of the virus, but I don't think the idea is that there would be some sort of quarantined group of MLB players and support staff.

 

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29008797/players-managers-intrigued-mlb-all-arizona-option

 

"What is the rule if a player's wife is giving birth or if he has a sick parent, spouse or child? Would he be allowed to leave? If so, would he be quarantined upon his return?"

 

""Just jump in and trust that we may not know when we'll reconnect with our families and trust that when health officials decide it's OK, we'll be able to do that," Matheny said. "But in the meantime, do something that would really help the healing process."

 

"I don't know if I could look at my kids just through a screen for four or five months. Same thing goes with my wife," the pitcher said Tuesday. "That's a long time. But people have done it in harsh scenarios, I guess. I think there's a lot of figuring out to do."

 

There are other players that have expressed a lot of uncertainty about this plan.

[DHonks]

There are already players coming out and saying they don't want to be sequestered away from their families. One player said they can void his contract if that's what the plan is. I don't know what the percentage is, and obviously this is still in the planning stages, but sounds like they have a little bit of work to do. like someone else said, do they have to quarantine hotel and cleaning staff as well? Food service staff? Etc, etc?

 

Why not? outstanding resorts are running at 0% occupancy, and they don't see many guests in a typical summer anyways. One local resort with 750 rooms had 1 occupied last week. The hotel can occur 40+ rooms to essential support staff for free. MLB teams already have to give every player a nice room or suite. perhaps the resorts make it affordable for players or teams to add an extra room for family.

 

My only issue with the plan is that since seemingly half of MLB players live in the Valley, how would we keep them from going home and interacting with the outside world (not that the outside world is doing much these days)? But these are questions that can be answered by MLB and MLBPA officials better than by armchair fans on a message board. The key is that there is a viable opportunity and plan.

 

 

Sure they "can" give rooms to staff and such, but do those staff want to be quarantined so MLB can play baseball? How much do they have to sweeten the pot for those employees? Like you said, there's a lot of questions that we don't know the answer to, and that's stuff they have to work out. In the end, to me, I think there's a lot of logistics with a LOT of people that don't make sense. I'm just "a guy" and I'm probably wrong, but you're asking a lot of people to spend a few weeks or a few months away from their families and the outside world. You can say 'it's only a few weeks' and that sounds fine, but what if it goes into August? MLB can't ask players, support staff, hotel and food service staff to quarantine and then promise them it'll be 3 weeks. It could be 3 more weeks. It might be July. It might be September. I can imagine that's a chance a lot of people don't want to take.

 

My thought was that if resorts saw their busiest 2 months with no occupancy and were approaching summer, they'd consider shuttering for the summer (like many AZ businesses do). Hotel employees would probably like their paychecks, even if it meant quarantining along with the teams. As for food, teams provide two meals per day in their clubhouses anyways. So feeding a team wouldn't be an issue, hotels would just need to provide one.

[Ennder]

I think players complaining about the quarantine are doing so because articles are suggesting the entire season is going to be played like this. That is almost certainly not the case. This is an idea for a short term start to the season.

 

I'd also add that I'm fully against lengthening the season on the other end. There are large concerns about another wave of virus come next fall when viruses tend to spread more aggressively. I wouldn't get greedy on the back end.

[Jopal78]

Money talks, the players will suck it up and play in Arizona if that’s what is decided because otherwise they’re not going to get paid. Especially the players with large contracts; they are currently losing tons of money, their scruples will last about five seconds when they have a chance to make their contract pay playing 7 inning games in Arizona.

 

MLB wants to get up and running because they’d be the only game in town and have a golden opportunity to grow their product since the amount of Competing entertainment available Is non-existent.

 

However, the government folks are likely going to kill the baseball season in 2020 at home parks. They’ll either approve the plan in Arizona or there won’t be a season. With the service time accruing regardless there’s a real chance Anderson, Sogard, Gyrko and Smoak never play an official game for Milwaukee.