COVID-19 impact on MLB season

[MrTPlush]

Plenty of room in the dugout, and I guarantee they aren't sharing rooms at the hotel. The clubhouse, maybe (I'll give you older stadiums such as Wrigley and Fenway), but they can easily regulate how many people can be in the clubhouse and have the rest stay in the dugout.

 

Are they going to ban tagging? /s

 

Anyway, this is all moot since MLB/MLBPA just agreed to the following conditions to return to play:

 

1. There are no bans on mass gatherings that would limit the ability to play in front of fans. However, the commissioner could still consider the "use of appropriate substitute neutral sites where economically feasible";

 

2. There are no travel restrictions throughout the United States and Canada;

 

3. Medical experts determine that there would be no health risks for players, staff or fans, with the commissioners and union still able to revisit the idea of playing in empty stadiums.

 

I have no idea what #1 is saying? What is economically feasible and how does it apply to playing a game at a neutral site? Having the game on tv in front of no fans makes tons of money so...

 

I’m guessing it refers to (example) NYC being a Coronavirus hotspot so they move their games to Detroit as to avoid Coronavirus hot spot that still has mass gathering bans. That’s my only theory.

[MrTPlush]

Plenty of room in the dugout, and I guarantee they aren't sharing rooms at the hotel. The clubhouse, maybe (I'll give you older stadiums such as Wrigley and Fenway), but they can easily regulate how many people can be in the clubhouse and have the rest stay in the dugout.

 

Are they going to ban tagging? /s

 

Anyway, this is all moot since MLB/MLBPA just agreed to the following conditions to return to play:

 

1. There are no bans on mass gatherings that would limit the ability to play in front of fans. However, the commissioner could still consider the "use of appropriate substitute neutral sites where economically feasible";

 

2. There are no travel restrictions throughout the United States and Canada;

 

3. Medical experts determine that there would be no health risks for players, staff or fans, with the commissioners and union still able to revisit the idea of playing in empty stadiums.

 

I have no idea what #1 is saying? What is economically feasible and how does it apply to playing a game at a neutral site? Having the game on tv in front of no fans makes tons of money so...

 

I’m guessing it refers to (example) NYC being a Coronavirus hotspot so they move their games to Detroit as to avoid Coronavirus hot spot that still has mass gathering bans. That’s my only theory.

[JackNicholson1974]

I’m beginning to wonder if an MLB season will happen this year. Virginia just issued a stay at home order through June 10th. I’m not sure where Nationals Park is, but of other states do the same it could be curtains.

 

This is depressing.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think the biggest impediment is going to be opening stadiums. People simply aren't staying home. There's too many businesses open that aren't really essential. Dunham's Sports and hometowne Recreation are open in Janesville. Best Buy is open. These places claimed to have essential items but what really happens is people come and shop for non-essential things and hang out and congregate. And as long as this is going on we're not going to have sports because we will still have a percentage of the population that is carrying and spreading.

[MrTPlush]

Keep in mind these teams still need spring training. Arizona/Florida are probably more important states to follow as both of those states being shutdown would make it really hard to get everyone up to speed. They could probably still find way to get players ready in different states, but it would get tough. This season could easily start in July without much issue. If they can find ways to have a spring training in June I don't think there is any reason to believe there won't be a season. If the MLB stadiums/cities aren't up to speed by July not too big of a deal.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think people are still in stages of denial. I think the MLB ship has sailed for 2020. I feel 95% certain the school year is over, and if you're not opening school, a lot of other things will follow that lead. Maybe if they are willing to start the regular season in mid July, but even that sounds hopeful to me at this point.

[JackNicholson1974]

They could just do a half season. 82 games (to make it even 41-41). Could start it in July. At this point I will take it.

[Ennder]

This has progressed mostly as expected so far. I think people just don't realize how slow the impact of changes happens. This virus takes 5-10 days to show up and another 5-10 days to progress to the point where people go to the hospital. There are still people going to the hospital today that were infected back when NBA games were still being played. Hospitalization rates are curving down already as the staying at home is just now showing its impact.

 

Peak deaths in a day is coming in the next 2 weeks, 2 week period of plateau and then it starts to fall for a few of weeks. That points to some people going back to work most likely in mid to late May (Trump is going to push this earlier than some others would) but with strict rules around it still and with strict contact tracing put in place. The real question is how effective that will be, it is working well in Wuhan (supposedly) and worked well in South Korea. If it is effective I would guess spring training happens either the last week of May or in early June. Games played sometime in June without fans. I think July is probably the realistic target to allow large gatherings though, it needs to be a slow process going from control to large crowds because it is really hard to trace things when it hits a large crowd.

 

The 5-15 minute test is a complete game changer as well. That had to be put in place before there was any hopes of anyone coming back to work. Those tests are portable as well and Abbott says they will be able to put out 5 million in April. When things do start up they can have one in the dugout and test players every day for the first few weeks if they really want to.

[pitchleague]

I would have to imagine that IF there is a spring training in June, all "spring training" games in Arizona would be night games. By June, it's going to be 100+ degrees in Phoenix everyday, sometimes before it's even noon. I would also be wary of players easily getting hurt, dehydrated, or get heat exhaustion / stroke quite often.

[Ennder]

The real issue with spring training probably is that Florida has been one of the slower states to react to things so likely will be one of the last to get through this. But I think they may do some sort of modified spring training where teams play outside of the normal facilities.

[owbc]

They also will need to be checking the temperature of fans when they go through the gates into the stadium. In fact they should probably be doing that permanently. If you have a fever you shouldn't be at a sporting event. Asian countries are already doing this, even to get into places like a mall.

[Ennder]

You know if you install robot umpires, don't allow runners to steal bases or advance on passed balls and use the pitchers hand rule from when we were small, where if you get the ball to the pitcher while a runner is between bases he is out, you could probably play baseball and never get closer than 6 feet. Somebody start a petition!

[A Swing and A Drive]

The reality is that we may soon be taking about whether or not a 2021 MLB season will be played in it's entirety. The hope of a 2020 season happening at all will be fading before the end of April.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The reality is that we may soon be taking about whether or not a 2021 MLB season will be played in it's entirety. The hope of a 2020 season happening at all will be fading before the end of April.

 

 

It's already all but a certainty that this is impacting the next NBA season. It's entirely possible that this could impact 2021 baseball as well. It's getting more possible by the day that 2020 baseball simply doesn't happen. Toronto extended their "mass gatherings" ban until June 30th, though city officials said that doesn't apply to pro teams. I honestly don't know how you can apply a ban like this and then say "but you can still play baseball and hockey". If other cities follow suit and this goes to the end of June and we don't start seeing spring training until July, we're looking at, best case scenario, starting in August-ish. And every few days, the best case scenario for when they start gets pushed back.

 

If I had to predict right now whether or not we see baseball in 2020, I'd say it's more than 50% likely that we don't. I hope like heck I'm wrong.

[NYChez]

Virginia extending its stay at home order through June 10 is not a good sign. It’s many steps between not being allowed out of the house and 26 guys hanging out in a dugout and traveling all over the place. And then it’s many more steps for 40,000 people to be allowed to sit together in a stadium.

[wildcat2237]

Arizona resident here. I know a few folks who work for the cities where spring training is held.

 

Generally, there is a lot of doubt a 2020 season happens. There are currently ZERO plans to re-start spring training. The Arizona governor just issued an indefinite stay home order yesterday. Peak hospitalizations are expected here in May.

 

I'm hearing that if they cannot re-start spring training by June 15, the season is likely scrapped completely.

 

Even if these stay at home orders are lifted May 15ish, that gives MLB 1 month to get players back to AZ and Florida and to throw together a two weekish spring training.

 

Then you get the whole issue of 30-50 people traveling together in close quarters for 4 months. I'm just not seeing it.

 

I'd even be surprised if we see a full college football and NFL season.

[dpapo]

I'm starting to wonder if there will be baseball this year as well. As I mentioned in my previous post I live in the UK and when I wrote my post the UK government position was to leave everything open. A few days after I wrote that the football league suspended it's season. A week later all the schools in the country were closed and a few days after that the entire country went on lock down.

A couple days ago one of the government medical experts said that it could be 6 months before things get back to normal. Her exact quotes,

"So over time, probably over the next six months, we will have a three-week review. We will see where we are going.

"We need to keep that lid on - and then gradually we will be able to hopefully adjust some of the social distancing measures and gradually get us all back to normal.

"Three weeks for review, two or three months to see whether we have really squashed it but about three to six months ideally, and lots of uncertainty in that, but then to see at which point we can actually get back to normal."

But Dr Harries also said it was "plausible" that it could last further than that.

 

And of course the UK is a smaller country then the US. At best, maybe they can play a shorten season in front of empty stadiums till possible around the time the playoffs would start.

[AKCheesehead]

One important consideration for all teams will be how to keep their players, pitchers in particular, physically ready and able to hold up over the 2021 season. Even if they play this year it’s going to be such a shortened season. I could envision many pitchers having struggles next year, especially if there’s no season at all this year. Something I hope that the Brewers are ahead of others and more intelligently planning for.

[Ennder]

One other hurdle that I didn't think about before is the minor leagues. While the majors can still earn money off of games without fans the minors certainly can't. So that means what, each team has a practice squad if they were to play without fans?

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Very hard to speculate given the sheer amount of uncertainty and the continental nature of the US.

 

One possibility (among so, so many) is that cases ease off significantly (as seems to have begun in Washington) in larger, early-hit areas (New York, CA, maybe Louisiana, Chicago, Milwaukee, etc.) fairly quickly (perhaps even by the end of April or early-May), only to bounce up around other parts of the country. I think that's the hardest variable to figure. How do more remote and mid-sized places see their numbers going, and which of those places were most aggressive about social distancing early on?

 

If you can contain the spread in big, dense urban areas, that will make things look better, maybe a lot better, than they actually could be (or it could even actually work, hampering spread everywhere). How that impacts baseball (or should impact baseball) is anyone's guess. If things look clear in big-city markets, does that skew our national interpretation of what's happening? Does it make owners and authorities more likely to play games? The urban/rural divide is something I'm watching across all lines, and in terms of sports too.

[Ennder]

If you want to actually track the virus I think it is really important to remember that number of cases doesn't mean anything because tests are a bottleneck. The next best way to track it is by hospitalizations but that just isn't widely available across every state. That means we are stuck tracking by deaths, not only is that morbid, it has a huge lag time. The average patient takes 19 days between getting infected and passing away. That means a large number of the people who died today got the virus before we were even told to stay home. It is a rather frustrating way to try to track things.

[MrTPlush]

Wisconsin says about 25% are hospitalized, but then again...we are only testing serious cases and to start were only testing those worthy of the hospital.

 

 

The current MLB plan is to award Los Angeles the neutral site for the World Series because they lose the AS game. If the Dodgers go to the World Series their “road games” would be at the Angels or Padres stadium. Their “home games” would actually be at home. What an epic joke that would be.

[mtrebs]

Wisconsin says about 25% are hospitalized, but then again...we are only testing serious cases and to start were only testing those worthy of the hospital.

 

 

The current MLB plan is to award Los Angeles the neutral site for the World Series because they lose the AS game. If the Dodgers go to the World Series their “road games” would be at the Angels or Padres stadium. Their “home games” would actually be at home. What an epic joke that would be.

 

Yes. The best solution for the World Series (if the competing teams cannot play in they own stadiums) is to have regional neutral sites. For example, Miller Park could host any Midwest team. Not only would you have climate-controlled games, but many teams are within a reasonable drive to Milwaukee. This would allow teams as far away as St. Louise or Cleveland be able to have their fan base drive to the “home” World Series games. Obviously, this would all be moot when the Brewers are in the World Series this year...

[Ennder]

Wisconsin says about 25% are hospitalized, but then again...we are only testing serious cases and to start were only testing those worthy of the hospital.

 

 

 

I meant number of hospitalizations. You don't really need to know the total number of people sick if you can track the most serious illnesses. The trend in people being hospitalized sort of shows what happened 7-14 days earlier for spread. Again there is a significant lag time and a wide range so it isn't great. Unfortunately we just really need testing to catch up to really understand the spread or we just need to wait another couple of weeks for the data to show up in how many people are dying.

[folly412]

Ken Rosenthal

@Ken_Rosenthal

Baseball is considering games in empty spring training parks, with no fans and quarantined players. But the logistics of such a plan would be extremely complex, and perhaps insurmountable. Story:

https://theathletic.com/1723090/2020/04/03/rosenthal-mlb-pondering-games-in-empty-spring-parks-but-many-obstacles-remain/

 

 

This seems...unlikely and impossible?