YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

[SeaBass]

Pujols is very likely 42 right now.

 

As a DH-only, one could argue he's worth cutting. With the 26th roster spot I guess you kinda have to just keep the "legend" on the roster, but I could see a prolonged IL stint sometime this year or next year just to kinda protect the image as he rides off into the sunset.

Looking back, I really wish the Cardinals had made the mistake of signing him to that contract instead of the Angels. I'm not certain my body could contain that much schadenfreude.

[monty57]

6-9 years from now, if MLB continues its financial success, $25 million will likely get you a utility player and an average set up man. The top free agents will be signing for $40-$50 million a year. In other words, there is every reason to believe that, based on inflation, the contract that Yelich signed will be team friendly throughout the length of the deal.

 

"Baseball inflation" will likely be contained to the rise in the luxury tax threshold. With that threshold essentially becoming a "soft" salary cap, any additional dollars that go to the top-end guys just means there will be less money to go to all of the other players.

 

I don't know the formula for how the cap is set, but it looks like the average increase since inception in 2003 is around 4%, but in recent years has been roughly 1% annual increases. I'd guess the formula has something to do with average MLB payroll, and as the penalties have stiffened, less teams have went over the cap, effectively decreasing the rate of increase.

 

I'd guess that this will be a major talking point in the next CBA discussions, but as it stands the aggregate increase in MLB payrolls looks to be slowing dramatically. This has helped teams like the Brewers, while the Red Sox just traded their best player and the Cubs are at a standstill.

[KeithStone53151]

 

This guy says deal is official.

[Warning Track Power]

 

9 years, $215m if my math is correct. Could be 10 years $228m if 2029 option is agreed to.

 

EDIT:

 

 

9 years, $217m, so 10 years $230m.

 

Thank you for taking the discount Christian!

[Brewcrewin07]

He has a $2 million trade kicker

 

[Ennder]

The Pujols deal has never been a good comp, the ages are completely different. The best comps I've seen for recent players are Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt. Both had very similar production as Yelich in their 26-28 aged seasons. McCutchen's value tanked largely because he suddenly sucked defensively. I don't know that Yelich is going to follow that same path since defense isn't a huge part of his game right now. Goldschmidt mostly held his value until last year which included a team change which makes things a bit more confusing. It looks like Goldschmidt had a lot of bad luck with BABIP last year compared to his norm but maybe that is just moving to a pitchers park from a hitters park.

 

I highly doubt this is a good deal for the Brewers from a pure wins to contract value standpoint. The safer play was to let him play out his contract and leave. But every once in a while one of these guys stays amazing into his mid 30's, if that happens it is a huge win. We are kind of hoping he is Josh Donaldson who has managed to stay great until 34 outside of that one season. Even if it doesn't happen having that clear face of the franchise that the fanbase can rally behind has a lot of sneaky value that I think really matters. I like the deal but I can't say that it is a sure win for the Brewers.

[rickh150]

I would have preferred 7 years total with an 8th option..... rather than 9 total with a 10th option. Those ultra big money, extra long contracts seem like they never work out well. Glad Yelich is here longer than the next three, at least in theory. No surprise here if he is traded at any point from 2022 to 2026 when we probably go through a rebuild.

[3and2Fastball]

I would have preferred 7 years total with an 8th option..... rather than 9 total with a 10th option. Those ultra big money, extra long contracts seem like they never work out well. Glad Yelich is here longer than the next three, at least in theory. No surprise here if he is traded at any point from 2022 to 2026 when we probably go through a rebuild.

 

A rebuild in the middle of Keston Hiura’s MVP years?! No way!

[MVP2110]

I gotta say it is really nice knowing we will have Yelich & Hiura anchoring our lineup for the foreseeable future

[liveforoctober]

I gotta say it is really nice knowing we will have Yelich & Hiura anchoring our lineup for the foreseeable future

 

Yep and I know it might be getting greedy but if Urias can be the real thing our 2-3-4 could be set for 2 more presidential cycles.

[patrickgpe]

I would have preferred 7 years total with an 8th option..... rather than 9 total with a 10th option. Those ultra big money, extra long contracts seem like they never work out well. Glad Yelich is here longer than the next three, at least in theory. No surprise here if he is traded at any point from 2022 to 2026 when we probably go through a rebuild.

probably had to give him that to get the deal done. Yes, probably at the end of the deal his production will not equal his salary, but its the price of doing business. If the brewers didn't give it to him, someone else would have in 2 years. If you want a superstar, you have to do that.

[MVP2110]

No opts out and a full no trade clause according to Nightengale

[KeithStone53151]

No opts out and a full no trade clause according to Nightengale

 

In sickness and in health, until 2029.

[liveforoctober]

Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

 

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..

[MrTPlush]

Interesting Yelich is essentially following the same path Ryan Braun did. Super cheap early extension and then a second extension that is notably under the length/amount he would get in free agency. Much like Braun’s it may not end up glamorous, but should avoid disastrous level that signing such a player in FA would.

 

Next up I hope a Hiura deal can be made in the next few years.. Such a great player and very humble.

[KeithStone53151]

Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

 

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..

 

Get out your Joseph Bat-light

[tmwiese55]

Yea I'd be all over using those White Sox and Braves contracts to their young stars super early in the process as models for Keston. He's a lock to hit, earlier you can lock him up and get a few years of FA bought out the cheaper it'll be.

[stalton]

Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

 

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..

 

Get out your Joseph Bat-light

 

I was thinking more along the lines of "you're my only hope, Obi Joseph"

[clancyphile]

Yea I'd be all over using those White Sox and Braves contracts to their young stars super early in the process as models for Keston. He's a lock to hit, early you can lock him up and get a few years of FA bought out the cheaper it'll be.

 

After this offseason, go for eight years, $100 million. A $12.5 million AAV, keeps him in Milwaukee with Yelich.

[Pugger]

The presser is about to be aired on MLB Network.

[RollieTime]

Sounds like Yelich went up to Mark to express his interest in remaining with the Brewers and that the first time he and the Brewers sat down to discuss a long term deal was back on Halloween.

 

Glad that the deal got done and that Christian will be with Milwaukee for the rest of his career!

[3and2Fastball]

An extremely impressive press conference all the way around. Congrats to Yelich, Stearns & Mark for getting it done. They were working on the contract negotiations since Halloween!

[Baldkin]

Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

 

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..

 

So, let's do some quick math.... from 2022 until 2028 he'll make 26M per season. After age 30, the rule of thumb is players lose 0.5 war per season, we'll say Yelich is a 6 WAR player (his average over the past 3 seasons).

 

So, 3 seasons of 6 war (through 2022) then (2023) 5.5, 5, 4.5, 4, 3.5 and 3 WAR in 2028.

 

The total.... 43.5 WAR.

 

Using Fangraphs estimates: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

 

So, at 11M per WAR, Yelich will be worth about 478M of value.

[brewerfan82]

Holy moly, $11M per WAR? Wasn't there discussion on here earlier this offseason about how the more widely shared belief of about $8M per WAR should be closer to $4M per WAR?

[liveforoctober]

$11M seems really high to me as well. So if we got Sogard at 1 yr/$4.5 mil ... and he produces 1 WAR this year he is outperforming his contract by $6.5 million? That doesn't seem right?