YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

[pacopete4]

#RyanBraunForever

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

 

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

 

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

 

Braun's big market extension began in 2016, not 2011. I'm not comparing Heyward to Braun but again, those MVP/near MVP type prime years for Braun were well within his first early extension and had nothing to do with the later big money extension that he's playing under now. The "lifetime of the deal" for the Braun deal everyone refers to ran from 2016-2020.

 

Fine.

 

Heyward 2016-2019 (ages 26-29) - 7.1 WAR, with a big defensive bump

Braun 2016-2019 (ages 32-35) - 8.5 WAR, with a big defensive deficiency

 

Unless you put a huge value on defensive stats in the OF, Braun has been a much more productive and valuable player during that time period, despite the 6-year age gap. Unless Heyward sees some sort of career resurgence, chances are he won't even be in the league for his ages 32-35 seasons, as the Cubs will just dump him, essentially paying him to go away. That's where things are trending.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Not much to add, but when I saw this thread title while getting ready to leave for work yesterday, my first thought was, "Wait, it's not April 1 yet." Genuinely surprising and pleasantly so.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Fine.

 

Heyward 2016-2019 (ages 26-29) - 7.1 WAR, with a big defensive bump

Braun 2016-2019 (ages 32-35) - 8.5 WAR, with a big defensive deficiency

 

Unless you put a huge value on defensive stats in the OF, Braun has been a much more productive and valuable player during that time period, despite the 6-year age gap. Unless Heyward sees some sort of career resurgence, chances are he won't even be in the league for his ages 32-35 seasons, as the Cubs will just dump him, essentially paying him to go away. That's where things are trending.

 

Heyward is only signed through age 33, FWIW.

 

Agree, he's trending down.

[BuckyBrewer61]

No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.

 

Of course I was not just comparing Braun vs Heyward in 2019. This whole thread is largely discussing long-term contracts and the value/risk of them.

 

I was simply defending Braun because people talk about him now like he’s a huge liability and wasn’t worth his contract. I understand some of the arguments about whether these deals are worth it, Braun’s final extension included. All I’m trying to say is Braun is still producing and at least making his final years’ salary more palatable. I probably should’ve picked a better more precise example of a player providing next to no value in the twilight years of a long-term deal like Pujols or Cabrera.

 

I simply used Heyward as an example of a what a bad long-term deal actually looks like, largely because he’s a Cub, therefore I love how bad this contract has been for them so I like talking about it.

 

But I’ll bite - completely ignoring their respective ages, any other value of extending your franchise player, and the fact the Brewers presumably had no idea the steroid issue was coming (extension was signed the year before he was caught)...comparing just the numbers on Braun’s final extension vs Heyward’s contract (both began in 2016):

 

Braun:

.280/.341/.503/.844

Averaging 22 HR, 70 RBI

$79m earned, 1 year/$21m remaining (including buyout of 2021 club option)

 

Heyward:

.252/.327/.383/.711

Averaging 12 HR, 57 RBI

$98m earned, 4 years/$86m remaining

 

I can understand the argument about the value of Braun’s final extension, but any attempt to try to equate Heyward and Braun’s deals is plainly off base IMO.

[homer]

FYI - when the deal is officially announced Friday we will update the thread title with the terms

[SeaBass]

No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.

 

Of course I was not just comparing Braun vs Heyward in 2019. This whole thread is largely discussing long-term contracts and the value/risk of them.

 

I was simply defending Braun because people talk about him now like he’s a huge liability and wasn’t worth his contract. I understand some of the arguments about whether these deals are worth it, Braun’s final extension included. All I’m trying to say is Braun is still producing and at least making his final years’ salary more palatable. I probably should’ve picked a better more precise example of a player providing next to no value in the twilight years of a long-term deal like Pujols or Cabrera.

 

I simply used Heyward as an example of a what a bad long-term deal actually looks like, largely because he’s a Cub, therefore I love how bad this contract has been for them so I like talking about it.

 

But I’ll bite - completely ignoring their respective ages, any other value of extending your franchise player, and the fact the Brewers presumably had no idea the steroid issue was coming (extension was signed the year before he was caught)...comparing just the numbers on Braun’s final extension vs Heyward’s contract (both began in 2016):

 

Braun:

.280/.341/.503/.844

Averaging 22 HR, 70 RBI

$79m earned, 1 year/$21m remaining (including buyout of 2021 club option)

 

Heyward:

.252/.327/.383/.711

Averaging 12 HR, 57 RBI

$98m earned, 4 years/$86m remaining

 

I can understand the argument about the value of Braun’s final extension, but any attempt to try to equate Heyward and Braun’s deals is plainly off base IMO.

Pujols is still probably not the best comp because he was still productive in his age 35 & 36 seasons. Both 40 & 31 HR seasons w/ OPS+ of 118 & 113. Braun just had an 116 OPS+ in his age 35 season. I didn't look up Cabrera.

 

Still, considering Pujols has only topped an .800 OPS once in his time with the Angels, an .859 OPS in his first season at age 32, I don't think that 10 year $240M deal worked out quite the way the Angels wanted it to.

[bill hAll Star]

There are some questions about Pujols' actual age.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Not making arguments about specific age, just talking about production at the end of a long-term deal

[SeaBass]

It might surprise some that Pujols had 23 HR and 93 RBI last season...

Not that that makes him "good" (he rocked a .734 OPS) but he was productive-ish. Terrible defensively at 1B though.

[monty57]

All contracts are different, but I think it's fair to compare this extension with Braun's second extension. In both cases we had an MVP-caliber player locked up for a team-friendly rate for a few seasons through their prime years who was extended to a "closer to market value" rate for their post-prime years going into their mid-30's. Both were "face of the franchise," potential Hall of Famers when signed. This deal will likely buy us a couple of extra good years beyond what we already had, and some years where we're overpaying for a guy who is still a decent player, but not worth what he's getting.

 

The Brewers may not get the "WAR value" back from the dollars they're spending, but this is a franchise that has only had two really good players (Yount & Molitor) spend most of their career in a Brewer uniform. Braun is the third player who really deserves to have his number retired, as the rest of the numbers (of course excluding Jackie Robinson & Uke) only played a short time in Milwaukee. Like Braun, even though we will have years at the end of the deal where we may wish we could get rid of the contract, if we're going to overpay for an aging player, I'd rather it be one who spent most (or all) of his career with the Brewers.

 

Here's to being able to watch what I hope is a Hall of Fame career spent mostly in Milwaukee.

[JackNicholson1974]

Unfortunately I had the pleasure to listen to national sports talk radio today lambaste this deal from the Brewers side. Their angle was that Yelich could be just average by the time the extension kicks in and basically that the Brewers had no reason to do this. I am sure that if the Yankees had signed Yelich to the same deal (9 years, 215 million) that they would be talking about how many World Series titles they would be winning in that time frame.

[tmwiese55]

Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back.

 

Really the Braun to Yelich comparison is about as close you'll be able to find. It's near perfect actually.

 

To Jack's post there about media ripping it. Sure, they're not wrong in that we all see that's possible too. No one is stupid. But there has to be a middle ground. He's not going to take 20 mil a year and we won't pay 35 mil for the market cost. They met in the middle, seems reasonable. But yea it's funny that the NYY could sign a straight up FA who's 30/31 to a 7-8 year 250 mil deal and they'd gush over it and how they'll win the title. Heck, they traded for a worse deal in Stantons and just gave $325 mil to a player turning 30 (1 less than Yeli would be at FA) this year and it's lauded as a great move.

[rickh150]

I see 9 years and think that somewhere in there there is going to be a tear down for two or three years and a rebuild back up. That is just the norm for most organizations. If and more likely when that happens, the Trade Yelich thinking will start. By signing him long term, the team can get significant prospects back in four to six years rather than lose him to FA in three.

The big question will be the no trade clause, if there is one and when it kicks in or ends.

[homer]

I see 9 years and think that somewhere in there there is going to be a tear down for two or three years and a rebuild back up. That is just the norm for most organizations. If and more likely when that happens, the Trade Yelich thinking will start. By signing him long term, the team can get significant prospects back in four to six years rather than lose him to FA in three.

The big question will be the no trade clause, if there is one and when it kicks in or ends.

 

Good point. I don't see this contract as being too onerous for a big market team.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I see 9 years and think that somewhere in there there is going to be a tear down for two or three years and a rebuild back up. That is just the norm for most organizations. If and more likely when that happens, the Trade Yelich thinking will start. By signing him long term, the team can get significant prospects back in four to six years rather than lose him to FA in three.

The big question will be the no trade clause, if there is one and when it kicks in or ends.

 

I wonder if part of this years philosophy of signings free agents for 1 year and a club option is a strategy to try and avoid a small rebuild. Gives 1-2 years to draft and develop some. Trade away for prospects. Some prospects come out of no where too. Just an interesting philosophy this year that May pay off for us instead of rebuilding.

[adambr2]

A full no trade clause will kick in late in the summer on 2023. Before that, who knows.

[RockCoCougars]

So there is still time to flip him for Gavin Lux?

A full no trade clause will kick in late in the summer on 2023. Before that, who knows.

[AKCheesehead]

Given the current roster, prospects, and organization philosophy, I’m not convinced there will be a rebuild during Yelich’s tenure with the Brewers. Time will tell.

[SeaBass]

Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back.

So THAT'S what the Brewers have been doing wrong, they should have been batting Arcia behind Yelich this whole time!

[patrickgpe]

Not making arguments about specific age, just talking about production at the end of a long-term deal

 

Braun is way overpaid at the end of his deal and it isn't crippling the franchise. I don't think its an issue. You can have one or maybe even 2 in Milwaukee and stay competitive. This is what you needed to do to keep him. You can expect to field a good team with arbitration eligible players and 1 year contract guys.

[3and2Fastball]

6-9 years from now, if MLB continues its financial success, $25 million will likely get you a utility player and an average set up man. The top free agents will be signing for $40-$50 million a year. In other words, there is every reason to believe that, based on inflation, the contract that Yelich signed will be team friendly throughout the length of the deal.

[tmwiese55]

Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back.

So THAT'S what the Brewers have been doing wrong, they should have been batting Arcia behind Yelich this whole time!

 

Haha. It's shockingly not that far off, that's how bad Pujols is. Pujols had a 672 OPS a couple years ago and a 700 another. In 2017 Arcia was higher than him. Have arcia swing purely for the fences and he could probably get into the low 20s in HRs like Pujols instead of teens.

[SeaBass]

Right, I'm not claiming Pujols is good. He's far and away not worth the $30M a season he'll get this year and next year, and his entire contract pretty much backfired on the Angels almost immediately. But he's not completely useless even at age 39 last season, he's not great, he's not Braun even, but it could be so much worse too, like Chris Davis worse.

[bill hAll Star]

Pujols is very likely 42 right now.

 

As a DH-only, one could argue he's worth cutting. With the 26th roster spot I guess you kinda have to just keep the "legend" on the roster, but I could see a prolonged IL stint sometime this year or next year just to kinda protect the image as he rides off into the sunset.