YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

[MrTPlush]

I think Braun would have been the next Yount, if the HGH thing didn't happen. He was becoming the baseball version of the face of our state. Hanging with Rodgers and bringing the fan bases together. I'm not an expert on this but would Braun be a Hall of Famer if he didn't get caught with HGH? I don't know, but I think he was borderline? Not here to debate that, just to say, I think he was going to be the next great, and now he will always be looked at differently.

 

He would have been short of the HOF...though somewhat close. Usually you have to get about 65 WAR to have a good chance....he sits at 48 WAR. He will still be looked back as one of the franchises prime players and I am sure will hang around for events for years to come. That being said, yah, the steroids made him iffy in the eyes of many fans. Yount was an all time great though, a sure fire HOF talent. Something Braun unfortunately came up short as with his on the field performance.

 

Yelich seems primed for a HOF career and appears to be a great character...that’s worthy of taking the torch from Yount. Something I am sure the organization is thrilled to have the possibility at.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

I have never ripped Braun's production or the fact that he's "overpaid" or anything like that.

 

I realize you cannot magically take that money and put it elsewhere sometimes, but still...do you think the Brewers wish they could've put $20 million to pitching or shortstop the past 2 years? I think they'd have taken that opportunity.

 

This assumes there is a way you can just have a guy like Braun or Yelich for his peak years, then ditch them when they decline. This is how superstar contracts work. If you want a guy like Yelich or Braun, this is the cost. Would you rather have not had Braun at his peak because of the current value of his contract?

 

I for one would rather pay that cost to have Yelich, now and in 9 years, than give him away and hope the money has value elsewhere

[adambr2]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

I have never ripped Braun's production or the fact that he's "overpaid" or anything like that.

 

I realize you cannot magically take that money and put it elsewhere sometimes, but still...do you think the Brewers wish they could've put $20 million to pitching or shortstop the past 2 years? I think they'd have taken that opportunity.

 

This assumes there is a way you can just have a guy like Braun or Yelich for his peak years, then ditch them when they decline. This is how superstar contracts work. If you want a guy like Yelich or Braun, this is the cost. Would you rather have not had Braun at his peak because of the current value of his contract?

 

I for one would rather pay that cost to have Yelich, now and in 9 years, than give him away and hope the money has value elsewhere

 

We would have had Braun for his peak regardless. He was controlled through 2015 (his age 31 season), before the extension. Extensions for Yelich and Braun in this case are actually quite similar, but the big difference is Braun still has 5 years control remaining at the time and Yelich had only 3.

 

I think this is part of the reason you're seeing teams try to buy guys out when they're so young so they can get those peak years cost-controlled. The first contract to Braun was fantastic and definitely something I would do with Hiura now. I didn't like the second deal for him as much because he was so far away from free agency. I do understand it though.

[Pugger]

I think Braun would have been the next Yount, if the HGH thing didn't happen. He was becoming the baseball version of the face of our state. Hanging with Rodgers and bringing the fan bases together. I'm not an expert on this but would Braun be a Hall of Famer if he didn't get caught with HGH? I don't know, but I think he was borderline? Not here to debate that, just to say, I think he was going to be the next great, and now he will always be looked at differently.

 

I think he would be a HOFer if he hadn't messed with HGH. It is all too sad because he lied about it. The cover-up is always worse than the 'crime'.

[bill hAll Star]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

I have never ripped Braun's production or the fact that he's "overpaid" or anything like that.

 

I realize you cannot magically take that money and put it elsewhere sometimes, but still...do you think the Brewers wish they could've put $20 million to pitching or shortstop the past 2 years? I think they'd have taken that opportunity.

 

This assumes there is a way you can just have a guy like Braun or Yelich for his peak years, then ditch them when they decline. This is how superstar contracts work. If you want a guy like Yelich or Braun, this is the cost. Would you rather have not had Braun at his peak because of the current value of his contract?

 

I for one would rather pay that cost to have Yelich, now and in 9 years, than give him away and hope the money has value elsewhere

 

I'm not totally against the deal as they may get a few extra peak years out of Yelich for under market, we'll see.

 

We'll never know if Mark held back some cash this year given the upcoming extension. Even if he didn't, Yelich will begin to decline very likely the season after his previous deal would've ended, in theory (2022).

 

So you could definitely make the argument that you could've gone all-in for these 3 years and traded Yelich at some point in 2022 if it wasn't working. Yelich, Hader, and any other all-in free agent signing should replenish the farm.

 

Then, in 2025, instead of a 33 year-old Yelich giving you a 1.5 WAR for $25 million, you might have a loaded farm system.

 

So in conclusion: They basically DID have Yelich through a good part of his prime. Maybe he is still an MVP from age 31-33, in which case this deal is great. But there's risk that he falls back to what Braun is now (which isn't bad) or worse.

[Pugger]

But back to Yeli. When I first found out you could have knocked me over with a feather. Now we know why we let both Yaz and Moose walk. Let's hope Mark A and company can surround our MVP with a good team around him going forward.

[wallus]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

 

2019 War

 

Braun- 1.8

Heyward- 2.0

[Patrick425]

Has there been anything yet to confirm that this is definitely going to happen or are they still "closing in" on a deal?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

 

2019 War

 

Braun- 1.8

Heyward- 2.0

 

Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)

Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

 

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

 

2019 War

 

Braun- 1.8

Heyward- 2.0

 

Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)

Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

 

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.

 

Heyward also still has 4 more years left on his deal at $21.5m per.

[bill hAll Star]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

 

2019 War

 

Braun- 1.8

Heyward- 2.0

 

Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)

Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

 

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.

 

But Braun is only being paid like Heyward in his 30s vs. Heyward's 20s.

 

The comparison is fair. We had Braun in his 20s on a cheaper deal and chose to add 5-6 years into his 30s. Braun's 20s vs. Heyward's 20s were a slam dunk for Braun. But we chose to pay Braun in his 30s like Heyward in his 20s/early 30s. Comparison is fair.

 

You've brought up this age thing inadvertently.

 

Braun, 2008-2015 (age 24-31): 35.5 WAR in 8 years. About 4.5 WAR/year

Braun, next extension 2016-2019 (age 32-35) 8.1 WAR. About 2 WAR/year likely to go down this year again.

 

Yelich, 2013-2019 (age 21-27): 33.6 WAR in 6.5 years. About 5 WAR/year

Yelich would've been under the deal until age 31, just like Braun, right before he tapered off.

 

So now we have Yelich, 2nd extension, 2023-2029 (I am going to count 2022 in his previous one).

 

Could Yelich's 32-36 look like Braun's? It'll be 31-38 for Yelich.

[SeaBass]

Has there been anything yet to confirm that this is definitely going to happen or are they still "closing in" on a deal?

FWIW I heard this morning on 620 WTMJ radio that the team expects to officially announce it on Friday.

[clancyphile]

But back to Yeli. When I first found out you could have knocked me over with a feather. Now we know why we let both Yaz and Moose walk. Let's hope Mark A and company can surround our MVP with a good team around him going forward.

 

I think that is a very good bet.

 

Two of Feliciano/Henry/Fry could hold down catcher.

 

I would not be surprised if there was a deal to lock down Hiura for roughly the same timeframe as Yelich.

[KeithStone53151]

I was an original naysayer, but after further review, this is fine. It's so "cheap" that even if he does suck from age 34-37, ~$25 million is like $15 million in today's money. Hopefully we get payoff from age 31-33 because otherwise this was pointless.

 

At first I thought they were giving him more this year in said extension which would've been not great management of the window.

 

But my question is:

 

Did we "save $20m-30 this year" to sprinkle on his contract further down the road? If so, I'd rather have just gone all-in from 2020-2022 and gotten something for him in a trade if all else failed.

 

I'll personally echo this sentiment. At first I thought this was 7/200+ of NEW MONEY...taking him through age 37. Reality is it's 6/173 of new money only taking him through age 36. That extra 30+ million for his age 37 season was just a little too long in my opinion and a little too expensive. I didn't hate it, but at the same time it felt like this would be a mediocre-bad deal those last 2-3 years. This only going through age 36 is a real game changer for me. One less potential bad year.

 

Looking ahead, we have a fringe contender this year. Very strong chance of playoffs and could be really good if the young pitching breaks out. We have a bunch of salary coming off the books next year and cheap options if any of the Sogard/Gyorko/Smoak group breaks out in a big way. Come 2022, we have a ton of dead money coming off the books and a good core to build around. It will be very important that we revamp the farm a bit and develop better over the next couple years to build around a very solid core. Overall, outlook of the team is excellent going forward. The 2-3 year window we had while Yelich was around is now blown wide open. We could very well be consistently good for a long time.

[clancyphile]

I was an original naysayer, but after further review, this is fine. It's so "cheap" that even if he does suck from age 34-37, ~$25 million is like $15 million in today's money. Hopefully we get payoff from age 31-33 because otherwise this was pointless.

 

At first I thought they were giving him more this year in said extension which would've been not great management of the window.

 

But my question is:

 

Did we "save $20m-30 this year" to sprinkle on his contract further down the road? If so, I'd rather have just gone all-in from 2020-2022 and gotten something for him in a trade if all else failed.

 

I'll personally echo this sentiment. At first I thought this was 7/200+ of NEW MONEY...taking him through age 37. Reality is it's 6/173 of new money only taking him through age 36. That extra 30+ million for his age 37 season was just a little too long in my opinion and a little too expensive. I didn't hate it, but at the same time it felt like this would be a mediocre-bad deal those last 2-3 years. This only going through age 36 is a real game changer for me. One less potential bad year.

 

Looking ahead, we have a fringe contender this year. Very strong chance of playoffs and could be really good if the young pitching breaks out. We have a bunch of salary coming off the books next year and cheap options if any of the Sogard/Gyorko/Smoak group breaks out in a big way. Come 2022, we have a ton of dead money coming off the books and a good core to build around. It will be very important that we revamp the farm a bit and develop better over the next couple years to build around a very solid core. Overall, outlook of the team is excellent going forward. The 2-3 year window we had while Yelich was around is now blown wide open. We could very well be consistently good for a long time.

 

This would be something new.

 

In the 1980s, the Crew went to the World Series in 1982, but was in the cellar in 1984, and second-to-last in `85 and `86 before Trebelhorn turned it around from 1987-1991, but that tenure saw a sub-.500 season.

[KeithStone53151]

Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)

Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

 

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.

 

Heyward also still has 4 more years left on his deal at $21.5m per.

 

You guys are fighting a losing battle here trying to say Braun's deal is equal or worse than Heyward. As noted, Braun had those MVP/borderline MVP years in his prime as part of the deal...while Heyward in his prime part of the deal is posting 1-2 WAR seasons that are extremely heavily aided by defense...which is notorious for overvaluing defense. Those defensive skills will diminish as he ages and he might not even be rosterable by the end of his tenure if he can't hit better than a low 700s OPS. Basically, Braun in the twilight years of his big contract has been as productive as peak Heyward.

[bill hAll Star]

Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)

Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

 

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.

 

Heyward also still has 4 more years left on his deal at $21.5m per.

 

You guys are fighting a losing battle here trying to say Braun's deal is equal or worse than Heyward. As noted, Braun had those MVP/borderline MVP years in his prime as part of the deal...while Heyward in his prime part of the deal is posting 1-2 WAR seasons that are extremely heavily aided by defense...which is notorious for overvaluing defense. Those defensive skills will diminish as he ages and he might not even be rosterable by the end of his tenure if he can't hit better than a low 700s OPS. Basically, Braun in the twilight years of his big contract has been as productive as peak Heyward.

 

Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

 

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

 

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

 

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

 

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

[brewcrewdue80]

Re: Braun. I wonder how his value gets perceived with 1b defense. I imagine over a longer sample. And he seems historically to hold a positive RF. Maybe he tosses a 2÷WAR season. He's also gotta think he's playing a contract year. So maybe he posts a 3WAR type year. I do wonder with him batting leadoff ahead of Yelich/Hiura. He still can steal his share of bases and OB is legit enough to fit the role. Isnt this season essentially motivating to be a little more than he's been? Writing this gives me high feelings on a great season for Braun.

[wallus]

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

 

No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.

[bill hAll Star]

Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

 

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

 

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

 

The extra two years and cash are worth noting on Heyward and he was more of a bust than Braun faded.

 

Braun's contract was not "as bad" as Heyward's but that does not make it a great contract. Braun probably ended up providing on the mid-to-better end of expectations on it and it still didn't deliver a ton of value even if it has not crippled them.

[tmwiese55]

Possibly the biggest flaw in that was using just Heywards 2019 while ignoring how awful of a hitter he'd been previously. Sure, if Heyward continues to hit respectably like last year he's not too bad. I strongly doubt last year was legit though. Without checking, I want to say it was massively inflated by a hot start and then he went back to his poor hitting, don't hold me to that though.

 

Someone also just said Braun batting leadoff. Is that something that's been said that I missed or just speculation? I've thought that for a bit now as well to as a descent spot for him. Mostly as a way to emphasize pitch selection and OBP to him instead of power/HRs. If that makes sense.

[jjfanec]

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

 

No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.

 

They had similar but switched years. Heyward started out hot and faded badly in the second half. Braun started out slow and raked the second half of the season. Heyward just adds defensive value. No doubt who the better hitter is though

[adambr2]

Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

 

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

 

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

 

Braun's big market extension began in 2016, not 2011. I'm not comparing Heyward to Braun but again, those MVP/near MVP type prime years for Braun were well within his first early extension and had nothing to do with the later big money extension that he's playing under now. The "lifetime of the deal" for the Braun deal everyone refers to ran from 2016-2020.

[wallus]

 

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

 

No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.

 

They had similar but switched years. Heyward started out hot and faded badly in the second half. Braun started out slow and raked the second half of the season. Heyward just adds defensive value. No doubt who the better hitter is though

 

True but the first game counts just as much as number 162 and defense matters.