YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

[anglotiger]

Make no mistake, this is a team friendly deal. However, people are still missing what the value difference is between a player entering free agency and a player 3 years out from free agency. The team assumes a far greater risk extending a player far out from free agency. There is uncertainty. A player can regress, become injured, test positive for PEDs, a multitude of things can go wrong. If they do, the team is still on the hook for that massive future extension.

 

Yelich and his agent understand that. There is downside in this for him. The downside is that if he has 3 more MVP caliber years he would have hit free agency and likely been in line for $400M+. But the tremendous upside for him is that he is guaranteed $215M right now in life changing money no matter what happens the next 3 years. He chose to take the bird in hand and that's a very understandable decision to avoid the risks.

 

Yelich doesn't do this deal if it doesn't make sense from his side too.

 

I think that most of us are not missing anything - there's always risk, but that's the price of getting to keep your superstar player, as a small market team. As an owner and/or GM, you have to decide whether or not keeping that player for the long-term is worth that risk to you. Thankfully it's not our money or decision...

 

I do agree entirely with the rest of what you say.

[Eye Black]

Some random thoughts on the Yelich extension...

 

1) I agree that being smart about trading players when their value is near its peak for long-term sustainability is an important necessity for an organization like the Brewers... EXCEPT...

 

2) Yelich is very much on a Hall of Fame trajectory, an arc that looks fairly steady at this point. His value to the organization supersedes just the on-field success. Winning is very important, but at some point you do need to have an identity beyond the laundry your team is wearing. Yelich’s long term presence within the organization has benefits that go far beyond WAR accumulation. One of the things that got me hooked on Brewers baseball was my 10 year old self rooting for a mid-30s Robin Yount all summer long. The stories my father told about seeing a teenaged Robin Yount play SS the first time he attended a Brewers game at County Stadium bonded us, and he had an impact on our relationship with the sport and our team. Yount was a player that transcended across generations of fans, and their relationship with the Brewers. Yelich can absolutely become the most meaningful player this organization has had since Robin Yount.

 

3) The Brewers could have absolutely signed Anthony Rendon if they had wanted to. I am very happy with the Yelich extension instead, but I will still daydream about the potential offense they could have fielded the next few season with both Yelich and Rendon in the middle of the lineup.

 

4) Yelich has seemingly chosen financial certainty over the potential to maximize future earnings twice now in his career. Risk assessment decisions like that aren’t made with the benefit of hindsight, and I actually think he made the best decision at the time in both instances.

[JohnBriggs12]

So were is the Mark A haters calling him cheap.

 

My issue was not so much that he was cheap but that he seemed to be crying poor through his mouthpieces like Haudricourt when there was plenty of evidence to the contrary. This extension actually proves the point that there was money available to keep last years team essentially together. Nobody knew Yelich would take a deal without testing the market. When they refused to pay a guy like Thames a couple million more than his worth or hold on to a very useful bullpen arm like Guerra neither of whom would break the bank, it certainly seemed they were being cheap. They must have been pretty confident that extending Yelich was doable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So were is the Mark A haters calling him cheap.

 

My issue was not so much that he was cheap but that he seemed to be crying poor through his mouthpieces like Haudricourt when there was plenty of evidence to the contrary. This extension actually proves the point that there was money available to keep last years team essentially together. Nobody knew Yelich would take a deal without testing the market. When they refused to pay a guy like Thames a couple million more than his worth or hold on to a very useful bullpen arm like Guerra neither of whom would break the bank, it certainly seemed they were being cheap. They must have been pretty confident that extending Yelich was doable.

 

Or maybe this was a team that underperformed and hovered around .500 most of the season before getting scorching hot in September, and the changes were needed and warranted. I think when it's all said and done, no one is going to lose any sleep over not retaining Thames and Guerra.

[Warning Track Power]

Some random thoughts on the Yelich extension...

 

1) I agree that being smart about trading players when their value is near its peak for long-term sustainability is an important necessity for an organization like the Brewers... EXCEPT...

 

2) Yelich is very much on a Hall of Fame trajectory, an arc that looks fairly steady at this point. His value to the organization supersedes just the on-field success. Winning is very important, but at some point you do need to have an identity beyond the laundry your team is wearing. Yelich’s long term presence within the organization has benefits that go far beyond WAR accumulation. One of the things that got me hooked on Brewers baseball was my 10 year old self rooting for a mid-30s Robin Yount all summer long. The stories my father told about seeing a teenaged Robin Yount play SS the first time he attended a Brewers game at County Stadium bonded us, and he had an impact on our relationship with the sport and our team. Yount was a player that transcended across generations of fans, and their relationship with the Brewers. Yelich can absolutely become the most meaningful player this organization has had since Robin Yount.

3) The Brewers could have absolutely signed Anthony Rendon if they had wanted to. I am very happy with the Yelich extension instead, but I will still daydream about the potential offense they could have fielded the next few season with both Yelich and Rendon in the middle of the lineup.

 

4) Yelich has seemingly chosen financial certainty over the potential to maximize future earnings twice now in his career. Risk assessment decisions like that aren’t made with the benefit of hindsight, and I actually think he made the best decision at the time in both instances.

I still think that option is still available to you if you want to take on the entirety of Nolan Arenado’s contract. If you do that, I don’t think the prospect return to Colorado will be that substantial.

[adambr2]

Some random thoughts on the Yelich extension...

 

1) I agree that being smart about trading players when their value is near its peak for long-term sustainability is an important necessity for an organization like the Brewers... EXCEPT...

 

2) Yelich is very much on a Hall of Fame trajectory, an arc that looks fairly steady at this point. His value to the organization supersedes just the on-field success. Winning is very important, but at some point you do need to have an identity beyond the laundry your team is wearing. Yelich’s long term presence within the organization has benefits that go far beyond WAR accumulation. One of the things that got me hooked on Brewers baseball was my 10 year old self rooting for a mid-30s Robin Yount all summer long. The stories my father told about seeing a teenaged Robin Yount play SS the first time he attended a Brewers game at County Stadium bonded us, and he had an impact on our relationship with the sport and our team. Yount was a player that transcended across generations of fans, and their relationship with the Brewers. Yelich can absolutely become the most meaningful player this organization has had since Robin Yount.

3) The Brewers could have absolutely signed Anthony Rendon if they had wanted to. I am very happy with the Yelich extension instead, but I will still daydream about the potential offense they could have fielded the next few season with both Yelich and Rendon in the middle of the lineup.

 

4) Yelich has seemingly chosen financial certainty over the potential to maximize future earnings twice now in his career. Risk assessment decisions like that aren’t made with the benefit of hindsight, and I actually think he made the best decision at the time in both instances.

I still think that option is still available to you if you want to take on the entirety of Nolan Arenado’s contract. If you do that, I don’t think the prospect return to Colorado will be that substantial.

 

I have a really hard time believing the Brewers would even consider committing massive deals to both Yelich and Arenado from '22 to '26.

 

Even if they were I just can't see the Rockies dumping Arenado as a pure salary dump even if it would be *fair*. It just seems like a nightmare PR move for them. Something that makes sense on paper but would never work in reality.

[Warning Track Power]

I have a really hard time believing the Brewers would even consider committing massive deals to both Yelich and Arenado from '22 to '26.

 

Even if they were I just can't see the Rockies dumping Arenado as a pure salary dump even if it would be *fair*. It just seems like a nightmare PR move for them. Something that makes sense on paper but would never work in reality.

 

Agreed. I’m simply saying the option of Rendon is there by trading for Arenado.

[clancyphile]

Make no mistake, this is a team friendly deal. However, people are still missing what the value difference is between a player entering free agency and a player 3 years out from free agency. The team assumes a far greater risk extending a player far out from free agency. There is uncertainty. A player can regress, become injured, test positive for PEDs, a multitude of things can go wrong. If they do, the team is still on the hook for that massive future extension.

 

Yelich and his agent understand that. There is downside in this for him. The downside is that if he has 3 more MVP caliber years he would have hit free agency and likely been in line for $400M+. But the tremendous upside for him is that he is guaranteed $215M right now in life changing money no matter what happens the next 3 years. He chose to take the bird in hand and that's a very understandable decision to avoid the risks.

 

Yelich doesn't do this deal if it doesn't make sense from his side too.

 

It made a lot of sense. I wonder how much that kneecap injury played into his thought process. He got lucky in that he could make a full recovery, that he wasn't losing a year to recover from the more serious injuries that could easily have affected his baserunning and defensive performance.

[MenchHead]

Super excited... Will be interesting to watch what the future holds for the Brewers and Red Sox regarding their decisions with MVP players.

[MVP2110]

It is pretty crazy we're in a time where the Brewers have locked in their MVP talent while the Red Sox traded theirs away and the Cubs are signaling they might need to trade theirs

[pacopete4]

And yet, fans will still cry that Mark doesn't do enough for them.

[superfly]

And yet, fans will still cry that Mark doesn't do enough for them.

 

How did ya think Mark A was going to sell the new stadium plan without a cornerstone player?

[RobDeer 45]

Make no mistake, this is a team friendly deal. However, people are still missing what the value difference is between a player entering free agency and a player 3 years out from free agency. The team assumes a far greater risk extending a player far out from free agency. There is uncertainty. A player can regress, become injured, test positive for PEDs, a multitude of things can go wrong. If they do, the team is still on the hook for that massive future extension.

 

Yelich and his agent understand that. There is downside in this for him. The downside is that if he has 3 more MVP caliber years he would have hit free agency and likely been in line for $400M+. But the tremendous upside for him is that he is guaranteed $215M right now in life changing money no matter what happens the next 3 years. He chose to take the bird in hand and that's a very understandable decision to avoid the risks.

 

Yelich doesn't do this deal if it doesn't make sense from his side too.

 

It made a lot of sense. I wonder how much that kneecap injury played into his thought process. He got lucky in that he could make a full recovery, that he wasn't losing a year to recover from the more serious injuries that could easily have affected his baserunning and defensive performance.

 

I brought this up at some point last year, that maybe this is a good time to look in to a contract extension. Maybe Yelich would take a discount to lock up a long term, life changing contract. Young talented players probably feel invincible when everything is going good. You have an injury and then you start to realize that you aren't, and these things can happen. I think it's a win for both sides. I hope he stays healthy and this contract ends up being great for the franchise.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Or maybe this was a team that underperformed and hovered around .500 most of the season before getting scorching hot in September, and the changes were needed and warranted. I think when it's all said and done, no one is going to lose any sleep over not retaining Thames and Guerra.

 

This.

 

In regards to the extension, I don’t understand how anyone can be any amount of upset about this. Yelich just put up back-to-back MVP worthy seasons, is on track to be a future hall of famer, and is the type of player/body type that can produce into his mid-30s. 22 will likely end up in the rafters in Milwaukee forever. There is legitimately no one in baseball not named Trout that is more worthy of a long-term deal, and every other team in baseball is jealous of the Brewers for inking this deal right now.

 

When you factor dollars in as well, as a Brewers fan which deal would you take for our small-market team from this list?

 

Rendon 7 years/$245m ($35m AAV)

Harper 13 years/$330m ($25mAAV)

Machado 10 years/$300m ($30m AAV)

Arenado 8 years/$260m ($32.5m AAV)

Trout 12 years/$426m ($35.5 AAV)

Yelich 9 years/$215 m ($23.8 AAV)

 

Even with our obvious bias aside, when factoring in length of deal, dollars (factoring in team resources), and production - the answer is Yelich, every time. Yes every long term deal has risk, and sure this could end up being an albatross by the end of the deal. But this is a no-brainer and a great day for Brewers fans. Enjoy it.

 

(Also I’ll enjoy it even more when I hear that it is official...)

[Ennder]

So were is the Mark A haters calling him cheap.

 

My issue was not so much that he was cheap but that he seemed to be crying poor through his mouthpieces like Haudricourt when there was plenty of evidence to the contrary. This extension actually proves the point that there was money available to keep last years team essentially together. Nobody knew Yelich would take a deal without testing the market. When they refused to pay a guy like Thames a couple million more than his worth or hold on to a very useful bullpen arm like Guerra neither of whom would break the bank, it certainly seemed they were being cheap. They must have been pretty confident that extending Yelich was doable.

 

He never said anything like this, you and many others projected this onto him. There was NOTHING in what he said that suggest this is true, nothing at all. The same people that listed to the Stearns interview yesterday and said it meant Yelich was never going to be signed to an extension. The same people that are convinced that the team is going to ask for a new publicly funded stadium soon for some odd reason. Fans have a nasty habit of doing this. They hear something, decide it means something with no real proof behind it and just go with it.

 

We got an upgrade over Thames and Guerra's peripherals never matched his results so he is a tricky guy. I think he is probably a 4.00-4.50 ERA reliever. Mouse and Grandal both got overpaid, maybe they could have signed one of them but Grandal signed so early I'm not shocked they didn't match him. Mouse is not very attractive at that contract imo. What Stearns did this offseason was not take on contracts that probably weren't good deals.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So were is the Mark A haters calling him cheap.

 

My issue was not so much that he was cheap but that he seemed to be crying poor through his mouthpieces like Haudricourt when there was plenty of evidence to the contrary. This extension actually proves the point that there was money available to keep last years team essentially together. Nobody knew Yelich would take a deal without testing the market. When they refused to pay a guy like Thames a couple million more than his worth or hold on to a very useful bullpen arm like Guerra neither of whom would break the bank, it certainly seemed they were being cheap. They must have been pretty confident that extending Yelich was doable.

 

He never said anything like this, you and many others projected this onto him. There was NOTHING in what he said that suggest this is true, nothing at all. The same people that listed to the Stearns interview yesterday and said it meant Yelich was never going to be signed to an extension. The same people that are convinced that the team is going to ask for a new publicly funded stadium soon for some odd reason. Fans have a nasty habit of doing this. They hear something, decide it means something with no real proof behind it and just go with it.

 

We got an upgrade over Thames and Guerra's peripherals never matched his results so he is a tricky guy. I think he is probably a 4.00-4.50 ERA reliever. Mouse and Grandal both got overpaid, maybe they could have signed one of them but Grandal signed so early I'm not shocked they didn't match him. Mouse is not very attractive at that contract imo. What Stearns did this offseason was not take on contracts that probably weren't good deals.

 

All of this is 100% correct, but it unfortunately isn't going to stop the complaints that the Brewers didn't spend money just to spend it. Both Stearns and Attanasio have been asked if they have any regrets on how things played out this offseason, and both said they only free agent there were really upset about losing was Grandal. They did, however, manage to acquire perhaps the closest offensive clone to Grandal that exists in the majors in Narvaez. The fact that Narvaez makes pocket change compared to Grandal because of his lack of ML experience is simply how things work in the league. I keep seeing fans upset because the Brewers' payroll has decreased on paper. Did it ever occur to any of those people, though, that the Brewers just didn't see enough on the market worthy of giving big bucks to to maintain the 2019 payroll? Throwing money around for the sake of it is never the answer.

[RobDeer 45]

Or maybe this was a team that underperformed and hovered around .500 most of the season before getting scorching hot in September, and the changes were needed and warranted. I think when it's all said and done, no one is going to lose any sleep over not retaining Thames and Guerra.

 

This.

 

In regards to the extension, I don’t understand how anyone can be any amount of upset about this. Yelich just put up back-to-back MVP worthy seasons, is on track to be a future hall of famer, and is the type of player/body type that can produce into his mid-30s. 22 will likely end up in the rafters in Milwaukee forever. There is legitimately no one in baseball not named Trout that is more worthy of a long-term deal, and every other team in baseball is jealous of the Brewers for inking this deal right now.

 

When you factor dollars in as well, as a Brewers fan which deal would you take for our small-market team from this list?

 

Rendon 7 years/$245m ($35m AAV)

Harper 13 years/$330m ($25mAAV)

Machado 10 years/$300m ($30m AAV)

Arenado 8 years/$260m ($32.5m AAV)

Trout 12 years/$426m ($35.5 AAV)

Yelich 9 years/$215 m ($23.8 AAV)

 

Even with our obvious bias aside, when factoring in length of deal, dollars (factoring in team resources), and production - the answer is Yelich, every time. Yes every long term deal has risk, and sure this could end up being an albatross by the end of the deal. But this is a no-brainer and a great day for Brewers fans. Enjoy it.

 

(Also I’ll enjoy it even more when I hear that it is official...)

 

I think both of you guys nailed it! Stearns doesn't just sign guys because they are good, or have been good, it has to make sense and fit what he thinks is their value. If he thinks he could get the same or better production for less money, he's going to do it. And what I love is he thinks outside the box.

 

Thanks for breaking down the numbers like that, it really does show the value in the contract.

 

I think we also have to look at this signing as more than just what he is bringing to the field. His presence for the organization is worth a ton. He's going to be the face of the team for years to come. He's on track to be a future hall of famer, and he's going to be doing that as a Brewer. By all accounts he's a great guy and is very down to earth. The whole state of WI will have pride in him being on our team. I know it's hard to compute, but he's going to make the Brewers a lot of money, if he continues to play to his ability.

[bill hAll Star]

I was an original naysayer, but after further review, this is fine. It's so "cheap" that even if he does suck from age 34-37, ~$25 million is like $15 million in today's money. Hopefully we get payoff from age 31-33 because otherwise this was pointless.

 

At first I thought they were giving him more this year in said extension which would've been not great management of the window.

 

But my question is:

 

Did we "save $20m-30 this year" to sprinkle on his contract further down the road? If so, I'd rather have just gone all-in from 2020-2022 and gotten something for him in a trade if all else failed.

[MrTPlush]

First off the Brewers are not being cheap and saving money for this deal...that isn’t why the off-season was the way it was. We aren’t being cheap to make sure we can lock a guy in for his 30s at huge prices...that would be dumb. This contract is probably not far off the Braun contract in today’s dollars in MLB.

 

Any time a team can lock up a star before FA, especially a small market like the Brewers, is a great day for baseball. This is a deal that every fan around baseball just loves. It is a great story.

 

That being said Yelich isn’t much different from Braun when he signed his deal. Ryan Braun looked just as promising at the same age and was a healthy guy at the time. Even ignoring the moral/PR tanking his actual play became incredibly lackluster for the big extension. It wasn’t a disaster, but Braun certainly didn’t not become the next Yount in Brewers lore.

 

I really hope Christian Yelich can stay healthy and keep up the incredible play. Having a HOF player to etch into the franchises history would be huge for the young fans. Yount is getting old, Yount faithful are getting old...this could be huge in keeping the next generation of fans interested in the Brewers for a long time. That’s the core of why this deal was done.

[RobDeer 45]

I think Braun would have been the next Yount, if the HGH thing didn't happen. He was becoming the baseball version of the face of our state. Hanging with Rodgers and bringing the fan bases together. I'm not an expert on this but would Braun be a Hall of Famer if he didn't get caught with HGH? I don't know, but I think he was borderline? Not here to debate that, just to say, I think he was going to be the next great, and now he will always be looked at differently.

[MVP2110]

Anyone think this was a MA special? I wouldn't be surprised if MA was the driving force behind this.

[SeaBass]

But my question is:

 

Did we "save $20m-30 this year" to sprinkle on his contract further down the road? If so, I'd rather have just gone all-in from 2020-2022 and gotten something for him in a trade if all else failed.

I posted in the Payroll thread but I see it as likely that Yelich gets some kind of signing bonus as part of the deal that will ultimately add to this year's payroll. I think they'd be crazy not to add a little bit this year since they're "under budget" compared to last season. Add some now, save some down the line.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

[tmwiese55]

I think Braun would have been the next Yount, if the HGH thing didn't happen. He was becoming the baseball version of the face of our state. Hanging with Rodgers and bringing the fan bases together. I'm not an expert on this but would Braun be a Hall of Famer if he didn't get caught with HGH? I don't know, but I think he was borderline? Not here to debate that, just to say, I think he was going to be the next great, and now he will always be looked at differently.

 

Yea that's pretty much it. Now, they're banking on that again here. As some said, there is a value to keeping the team relevant to fans. Attendance is big here and while they were able to maintain ok during that couple year dip another prolonged bad stretch and next thing you know you could be back to the early 00s. Basically just saying there is a value in kind of just keeping things on the right track. Then add in that Braun's deal will be gone and I think only 1 year left for Cain when this kicks in and teamwise they're OK as well as long as they don't lock in any flopped deals between now and then (hmmm, they weren't so cheap and dumb after all).

 

Braun's HOF I'd probably say he's still slightly out as a HOFer without the PED scandal alone, assuming all the same games missed and all that. But, add in the missed games and take out the thumb injury and I'd probably say he'd have made it. He basically had two years ruined by those things in his prime (and who knows how many HRs the thumb cost him in later years), tack on another 40-50 HRs to his totals and he's probably just over and gets in.

[bill hAll Star]

I find it interesting people point to Braun’s contract as terrible in these discussions as well. Is he a bit overpaid here at the end of his contract? Sure. But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward.

 

I have never ripped Braun's production or the fact that he's "overpaid" or anything like that.

 

I realize you cannot magically take that money and put it elsewhere sometimes, but still...do you think the Brewers wish they could've put $20 million to pitching or shortstop the past 2 years? I think they'd have taken that opportunity.