2020 Bullpen

[wallus]

We have a Starting Rotation and a Lineup thread, might as well have a dedicated Bullpen one. Here are the guys that I think will make the team out of spring.

 

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Black

Phelps

Feyereisen

Wahl

Williams

 

There doesn't seem to be a lot of guys in the running for some of these spots. I didn't include Yardley but wouldn't have a problem with him making the team. I am planning on Peralta making the rotation and Lauer in AAA for depth. I do enjoy the amount of times we could have a hitter face someone like Claudio or Suter and then someone like Black, Hader and Wahl.

 

Correct me if I am wrong but Black, Williams and Feyereisen are all out of options? I apologize that I struggled to find that information.

[MVP2110]

We have a Starting Rotation and a Lineup thread, might as well have a dedicated Bullpen one. Here are the guys that I think will make the team out of spring.

 

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Black

Phelps

Feyereisen

Wahl

Williams

 

There doesn't seem to be a lot of guys in the running for some of these spots. I didn't include Yardley but wouldn't have a problem with him making the team. I am planning on Peralta making the rotation and Lauer in AAA for depth. I do enjoy the amount of times we could have a hitter face someone like Claudio or Suter and then someone like Black, Hader and Wahl.

 

Correct me if I am wrong but Black, Williams and Feyereisen are all out of options? I apologize that I struggled to find that information.

 

I believe Williams & Feyereisen each have options remaining.

 

My personal guess is

 

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Phelps

Peralta

Black

Wahl*

Williams*

 

Wahl & Williams just being placeholders for our normal shuttle that will include Feyereisen, Perdomo, Yardley, & eventually Rasmussen & Knebal

[ClosetBrewerFan]

My guess:

 

Hader

Claudio

Suter

Black

Phelps

Morin

Peralta (Lauer makes the rotation)

D. Williams

 

Morin's numbers last year are better than the ERA. He had a 1.1 WHIP. His K rate was abysmal but that is why is was available as a minor league free agent. Over his career his K rate has been fine.

 

Every year Stearns has a surprise player make the team. My guess is Morin.

[brewmann04]

Phelps first two outings has not been solid but think he a lock.

[3and2Fastball]

I’m not convinced Black can consistently throw strikes enough to be a MLB player

 

Not to overstate the obvious, but Knebel coming back 100% would be absolutely huge for the 2020 season!

[wallus]

I’m not convinced Black can consistently throw strikes enough to be a MLB player

 

Not to overstate the obvious, but Knebel coming back 100% would be absolutely huge for the 2020 season!

 

We definitely need to him be close to what he was before his injury.

[clancyphile]

My pick:

Hader

Rasmussen

Claudio

Phelps*

Suter

Lindblom

Black*

D. Williams*

 

* - Black replaced by Knebel

* - D. Williams replaced by Clayton Andrews

* - Phelps replaced by Burnes

[TJseven7]

It's hader suter phelps (who looked bad) and garbage until they figure out which of these 12 options won't suck then finally get Knebel back up to speed and call up Rasmussen.

 

It's going to be bad. Hader Suter and pretty darn bad.

[Axman59]

That's an uninspiring bullpen. Unless they get some really great performances out of this group making the playoffs will be a serious problem.

[sveumrules]

We project for a top 5 bullpen in all of MLB at the moment....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

 

During the Stearns era, the bullpen's Win Probability Added & runs allowed based WAR have ranked...

 

2016: 6th (+5.70) 9th (5.9)

2017: 12th (+2.87) 6th (6.8)

2018: 6th (+5.65) 4th (7.7)

2019: 7th (+5.22) 15th (4.0)

Total: 4th (+19.44) 6th (24.5)

 

The bullpen has consistently been a strength during Stearns' tenure & as long as Hader is healthy I don't see it being a hindrance to the Brewers' competitiveness in 2020.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Pen has been fine, and will continue to be fine, because they are good at putting solid pieces in place. They've accumulated enough depth in that area that if one piece doesn't work, there are multiple options to switch them out.

[MVP2110]

Yep, & Counsell seems adept at getting the most out of his bullpen.

[Mr Southpaw]

What about Luke Barker?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What about Luke Barker?

 

Barker has looked pretty solid in his limited opportunities so far in Spring Training, and certainly had a terrific year last year. But the fact that he wasn't even a non-roster invitee to ML Spring Training this year is probably a pretty good barometer on how the organization views his potential, I would imagine.

[TJseven7]

We project for a top 5 bullpen in all of MLB at the moment....

 

Kinda hard to project stuff when you only know what half the pen will be. I believe that if this team wants to put its best foot forward it should be like this.

 

Woodruff, Anderson, Lindblom, Peralta, Lauer (in AAA until 5th starter)

 

Hader Houser

Suter Burnes (piggy backing Peralta Lauer) Rasmussen

Phelps Claudio

Black (show up or shuttle out when Knebel is right)

Pick 1 random (in MLB until 5th starter is needed)

 

However, that is very youth aggressive and I truly do not (ideally) want to see Burnes as a pen piece. The issues is that I do not believe in the other pieces we've collected and feel they should all be stuffed into AAA in the hopes to sort them out

Perdomo Barker Wahl Feyereisen Williams Bickford Yardley et al.

 

I've said for awhile. I do not want to limp into this year. I do not think this staff is ready for the start of 2020. I see the pen getting stronger in the middle of the year, trade or no trade. If they don't get aggressive and push Burnes Rasmussen and Lauer into the opening day 13 there's going to be a problems.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We project for a top 5 bullpen in all of MLB at the moment....

 

Kinda hard to project stuff when you only know what half the pen will be. I believe that if this team wants to put its best foot forward it should be like this.

 

Woodruff, Anderson, Lindblom, Peralta, Lauer (in AAA until 5th starter)

 

Hader Houser

Suter Burnes (piggy backing Peralta Lauer) Rasmussen

Phelps Claudio

Black (show up or shuttle out when Knebel is right)

Pick 1 random (in MLB until 5th starter is needed)

 

Counsell said in an interview again today that the known four (Woodruff, Houser, Anderson, Lindblom) have rotation spots pretty much sewn up. The competition is for #5 between Lauer and Peralta, with Burnes and Shelby Miller on the periphery. I know you don't agree, but I think it's pretty obvious by now that they see Houser as a starter going forward.

[TJseven7]

Counsell said in an interview again today that the known four (Woodruff, Houser, Anderson, Lindblom) have rotation spots pretty much sewn up. The competition is for #5 between Lauer and Peralta, with Burnes and Shelby Miller on the periphery. I know you don't agree, but I think it's pretty obvious by now that they see Houser as a starter going forward.

 

And its a terrible decision both now and long term.

 

Woodruff Houser Lindblom and Lauer or Peralta are all locked in for 3 years.

Burnes has better potential.

Lauer is a starter or a bad fit for the pen

OR

Peralta just got paid and you leave him in the pen despite better potential than Houser?

 

In the next 3 years we are also looking at Small Ashby Supak File Francis Bettinger coming of age. Small and Ashby have much higher potential than Houser.

 

You wedge Houser into a starter role you only have 1 spot open in the next 3 years and a bunch of options who are as good, if not superior potential to Houser. If you put Peralta into the rotation over Lauer you basically bury Lauer for good. "Guys will get hurt," yeah and then its Lauer keeping Burnes as a pen piece.

 

It's backwards and our quest to develop 10 starters is going to kill our pen.

[wntrtxn21]

Counsell said in an interview again today that the known four (Woodruff, Houser, Anderson, Lindblom) have rotation spots pretty much sewn up. The competition is for #5 between Lauer and Peralta, with Burnes and Shelby Miller on the periphery. I know you don't agree, but I think it's pretty obvious by now that they see Houser as a starter going forward.

 

And its a terrible decision both now and long term.

 

Woodruff Houser Lindblom and Lauer or Peralta are all locked in for 3 years.

Burnes has better potential.

Lauer is a starter or a bad fit for the pen

OR

Peralta just got paid and you leave him in the pen despite better potential than Houser?

 

In the next 3 years we are also looking at Small Ashby Supak File Francis Bettinger coming of age. Small and Ashby have much higher potential than Houser.

 

You wedge Houser into a starter role you only have 1 spot open in the next 3 years and a bunch of options who are as good, if not superior potential to Houser. If you put Peralta into the rotation over Lauer you basically bury Lauer for good. "Guys will get hurt," yeah and then its Lauer keeping Burnes as a pen piece.

 

It's backwards and our quest to develop 10 starters is going to kill our pen.

 

I think you're right about all the talent coming up, especially Small and Ashby. Francis and Bettinger also looked mighty good at AA last year and can't be counted out in the future. I don't understand CC basically handing Lindblom a starting spot. Imo Lindblom is the most iffy of the team's starters and should be considered the odd man out if needed. He had success the last two years but pitched in what is equated to an AA level league. I think both Houser and Lauer have more potential than Lindblom as a starter or reliever. I believe until CC figures out the roles for Peralta and Burnes, it's going to be a crap shoot after Wodruff and Anderson.

[brewcrewdue80]

Can we consider that the Brewers SPs last season averaged under 5IP for the season? And now may have numerous guys that get through in to the 6th IP range?

Anderson 5.2IP avg per start last season in the AL

Woodruff almost 5.2IP

Houser's role will result in more promise than a 4.2IP SP because he won't be starting games after being in the bullpen.

Peralta's career is just below 5IP a start, with the knowledge adding a new pitch to help him.

Lauer is at a 5IP career avg away from Coors and enduring inning limitations that won't be in place this year.

 

All told, I'm thinking as a team the SPs can go a full IP longer avg per start. 3 outs less a game for the bullpen to have to cover.

 

The future depth is coming. Seems asinine to worry about currently. I'd worry about it after the trade deadline or when Hader went down with a significant injury. But right now, whole lotta upside. STL won the division last season having a bullpen ERA of 3.88.

The Washington Nationals won the WS with a bullpen ERA of 5.68. Houston Astros came in at 3.75ERA from bullpen. Just amazes me how some posters nitpick worry after worry because they aren't playing a 25man squad of All Stars. Oh no no Grandal. Oh no, no Shaw or Aguilar/Thames at 1b....wait that's a good thing. The loss to me is just 3b to worry on. Oh no who is gone from 2019 in RPs? Pomeranz and Guerra? Meet Suter and Kneble. Somebody that loses the SP battle will go in to the bullpen. Down the road it's Rasmussen. Down the road it's trade deadline additions, or other minor league additions with upside. Further down the playoff road it will SP #4 or 5 pitching from the bullpen vs Starting. Relax.

[DHonks]

Counsell said in an interview again today that the known four (Woodruff, Houser, Anderson, Lindblom) have rotation spots pretty much sewn up. The competition is for #5 between Lauer and Peralta, with Burnes and Shelby Miller on the periphery. I know you don't agree, but I think it's pretty obvious by now that they see Houser as a starter going forward.

 

And its a terrible decision both now and long term.

 

Woodruff Houser Lindblom and Lauer or Peralta are all locked in for 3 years.

 

Locked in for 3 years? Not sure I like that. At some point I hope we move to a Rays-like model where we are producing some talented starters, getting 2-3 productive years, then dealing them for multiple prospects, only younger

[TJseven7]

Can we consider that the Brewers SPs last season averaged under 5IP for the season? And now may have numerous guys that get through in to the 6th IP range?

Anderson 5.2IP avg per start last season in the AL

Woodruff almost 5.2IP

Houser's role will result in more promise than a 4.2IP SP because he won't be starting games after being in the bullpen.

Peralta's career is just below 5IP a start, with the knowledge adding a new pitch to help him.

Lauer is at a 5IP career avg away from Coors and enduring inning limitations that won't be in place this year.

 

All told, I'm thinking as a team the SPs can go a full IP longer avg per start. 3 outs less a game for the bullpen to have to cover.

 

The future depth is coming. Seems asinine to worry about currently. I'd worry about it after the trade deadline or when Hader went down with a significant injury. But right now, whole lotta upside. STL won the division last season having a bullpen ERA of 3.88.

The Washington Nationals won the WS with a bullpen ERA of 5.68. Houston Astros came in at 3.75ERA from bullpen. Just amazes me how some posters nitpick worry after worry because they aren't playing a 25man squad of All Stars. Oh no no Grandal. Oh no, no Shaw or Aguilar/Thames at 1b....wait that's a good thing. The loss to me is just 3b to worry on. Oh no who is gone from 2019 in RPs? Pomeranz and Guerra? Meet Suter and Kneble. Somebody that loses the SP battle will go in to the bullpen. Down the road it's Rasmussen. Down the road it's trade deadline additions, or other minor league additions with upside. Further down the playoff road it will SP #4 or 5 pitching from the bullpen vs Starting. Relax.

 

The 1st part is the main reason I want Lindblom in the rotation. I'm not sure of him being extremely good, but I believe he can carry north of 5.5IP per start. MKE doesn't have many of those.

 

The Cards, Nats and Astros pens? They don't care about their pen. They have (or have had) Mount Olympus style rotations. We have Woodruff. The rest needs a significant jump to be considered anything but average. MKE has to shoot for a 4.0 ERA from the staff. The pen needs to drop that ERA considerably if they want to be a division winner. That's their build.

 

However, Houser is a starter, Lauer is a starter, Peralta is a starter and I read today MKE sees Rasmussen as a starter. I'm fine with them being bullish on Kelly as a starter because he's young and has been healthy but this is getting downright insane. MKE needs a pen and that isn't just Hader and Suter.

[TJseven7]

Locked in for 3 years? Not sure I like that. At some point I hope we move to a Rays-like model where we are producing some talented starters, getting 2-3 productive years, then dealing them for multiple prospects, only younger

 

Teams aren't overly excited about guys who pitch 4.0 ball. TB has front of the rotation guys falling from the sky. MKE has 3-5 upside guys by most accounts.

 

The Davies deal didn't net us multiple prospects. It net us Lauer, who we apparently don't want to start despite him having 2 years of service in the MLB already.

Anderson netted very little.

Didn't sell Chacin.

 

Even if you do that with Lindblom after a good 1st year stateside.

Woodruff Peralta Lauer Burnes

Houser or File Supak Francis Bettinger Small in 2020.

 

Houser isn't the best option now, and even if MKE flips Lindblom and only uses in house guys he's not even a top 5 option in 2021.

[brewcrewdue80]

Locked in for 3 years? Not sure I like that. At some point I hope we move to a Rays-like model where we are producing some talented starters, getting 2-3 productive years, then dealing them for multiple prospects, only younger

 

Teams aren't overly excited about guys who pitch 4.0 ball. TB has front of the rotation guys falling from the sky. MKE has 3-5 upside guys by most accounts.

 

The Davies deal didn't net us multiple prospects. It net us Lauer, who we apparently don't want to start despite him having 2 years of service in the MLB already.

Anderson netted very little.

Didn't sell Chacin.

 

Even if you do that with Lindblom after a good 1st year stateside.

Woodruff Peralta Lauer Burnes

Houser or File Supak Francis Bettinger Small in 2020.

 

Houser isn't the best option now, and even if MKE flips Lindblom and only uses in house guys he's not even a top 5 option in 2021.

 

in this. Locked in for 3years. you want the Rays model. Down went Nelson, pretty much the first Farm grown pitcher Stearns could have worked the Rays model after. That model essentially starts now with Woodruff who has 5years of service time remaining. Typical Rays model is to sell their guy during the last year of team control, or had they extended one of their pitchers to a cheap team friendly deal, a little earlier. How does Tampa continually reload the franchise with SPs that net them valuable prospects?

Look at their transaction log regarding trades.

2019: Traded a CF prospect, Mallex Smith for a2018 4th rd SP prospect, 4th type of OF, and failed ML C.

Traded cash, 22yr 1b Jake Bauers for a 1b/3b prospect, and a 29yr old 1st year RP

Traded at the time, 3RPS atop the minors, for 2yr veteran RP Emilio Pagan, a comp pick, and 11th rd 2017 SP prospect lottery ticket.

Traded 1yr ML RP for 20th Rd 2018 pick SP lottery ticket.

Traded journeyman Wilmer Font for an 18yr old Pitching Prospect.

Traded Released FA RP Casey Sadler for 17th round 2017 RP prospect

Traded a Utility Inf prospect for a 9th rd 2015 RP with ML experience. Utility Inf actually has top 100 pre 2020 rank.

Traded top 100 OF prospect, Ryne Stanek, for 28yr RP, and SP Trevor Richards.

 

2018:

Traded RP Brad Boxberger for 4th rd 2016 RP.

Traded Evan Longoria for 4th rd 2016 SP/RP, 8th rd 2016 SP plus ML fillers.

Traded Odorizzi for a 20yr Inf Utility lottery ticket

Traded Steven Souza for ML RP, 8th Rd 2014 SP, 14th rd 2016 RP, utility inf traded in 2019 above

Traded Alex Colome (3yrs remaining control) Denard Span, for 15th rd 2017 SP lotto ticket, and a SP that wound up released. Oof lost a trade.

Traded minors RP for Wilmer Font who was traded in 2019.

Traded Matt Andriese with 5yrs control, for 6th rd 2017 SP lotto ticket, and ML Catcher

Traded 1/2 season Nathan Eovaldi for Jalen Beeks a longman RP

The Biggest one

Chris Archer with 3 more seasons cheap control, for Stud Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and 1st rd 2017 SP lotto ticket.

Traded Adeiny Hechavarria for RP Prospect

 

And that's a heckuva laundry list for just 2 years. But it's not just the SPs garnering minors relevancy, they have hyper actively traded and acquired so many forms of pitching to reload with. But also, in regards to trading Pitching to reload, Milw hasn't fully been able to do that until Davies/Grisham netted us Lauer/Urias. They both just happened to be graduated ML experienced. Urias just happens to be about 70days graduated from being a #25-35 prospect likely top 15 today if hadn't graduated.

 

Kneble/Hader on likely you're next ML pitchers that are traded for valuable prospects. Maybe Anderson or Lindblom seeing as they might not fit the roster this season or come next offseason in Lindblom's case. Lauer too could be that before this time next season.

[TJseven7]

I'm perfectly fine with hyper activity. I wish they had more 2 year deals to allow that to be the case frankly. The only trade chip you can point to on offense is a hope of Arcia and maybe Garcia or a guy who you pick up the option and then sell them.

 

The thing is:

They didn't do this with Chacin when they could have.

They got a 1b mid majors for Anderson

I like what they did with Davies and Grisham.

They didn't break off Knebel or Jeffress.

We are years away from having to make a move on Hader

They've cashed in a lot of prospect for playoff filler and Yelich instead of recycling them for younger lottery tickets.

They didn't move on from Moose or Grandal.

 

To properly do this you have to stuff the majors with home grown control or value signings and control them long enough for the next wave to push their way to a point where they displace someone. You can always do the Lind for lottery ticket type deals but when everyone's a 1 year deal and you are pushing for the playoffs this becomes a ton harder.

 

A big reason I want Lindblom and Lauer in this rotation is to build that group of long term control. Once you have that you can go into a holding pattern and let your farm develop to a point where the next man up is READY. Right now this system has 5 J2 kids who aren't 20 who seem fascinating. We have 6 arms who look MLB capable in some role but they are 1-2 years away.

 

MKE could pull this off, but you either need to hit a point where you have set a group in place that has control... or you need to lose to really kick this off.

 

Woodruff Anderson Lindblom Peralta Lauer

Hader Suter Houser Rasmussen is the way you do such a thing.

 

Offensively, we aren't graduating anyone for awhile it seems. Even if we did, who isn't a FA next year?

[Mr Southpaw]

I'm perfectly fine with hyper activity. I wish they had more 2 year deals to allow that to be the case frankly.

Woodruff Anderson Lindblom Peralta Lauer

Hader Suter Houser Rasmussen is the way you do such a thing.

 

Insert Knebel after Hader and it looks pretty good.