2020 Packers Draft Thread

[young guns]

Out of curiosity how high would our 2021 pick theoretically move us up?

[PeaveyFury]

Out of curiosity how high would our 2021 pick theoretically move us up?

 

I think the league puts an arbitrary 1000 point value on a future first(or did at one time) Alone, that would get you to the mid-teens. Packaged with our current first? You could probably get up to 10.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Out of curiosity how high would our 2021 pick theoretically move us up?

 

I think the league puts an arbitrary 1000 point value on a future first(or did at one time) Alone, that would get you to the mid-teens. Packaged with our current first? You could probably get up to 10.

 

Just have to go back to 2018, when the Saints sent the Packers the 27th and 147th pick in the 2018 draft as well as their first-rounder in 2019 in exchange for the 14th overall selection that year. If the Packers packaged their 2021 #1 with #30, they could probably get to #12. But who knows if teams are even valuing 2021 picks with the 2020 college season up in the air?

[young guns]

Thanks. I cant remember the last time we traded a future first round like that. Wonder if that's something gute would ever consider if he really loved a player.

[nodakfan17]

What I hope happens:

 

Round 1: Patrick Queen (LB), Kenneth Murray (LB), or Trade Back

Round 2: Tee Higgins (WR) or Chase Claypool (WR)

 

What I think happens:

 

- The Packers trade up 5 spots, but don’t address a position of need.

 

I have no idea what to expect tonight. I loved BG’s first draft (picking up the extra pick from the Saints and then maneuvering to get Alexander), but was disappointed last year with taking Gary and then trading up for Savage. I wish they had traded back from #12 to where they thought Savage fit (it takes two to tango, I know) and then addressed another position of need at #30. I’m not a draft expert or even a big draft guy, but it always seems to me that good value gets pushed down the board every year. Just be patient.

 

Nailed it.

[adambr2]

Is it just me, or does Gute trade up just a few spots a LOT? Seems like he locks in on one particular guy and panics if has any inkling that his pick is at risk.

[bjkrautk]

Honestly, when they moved up...I thought it was to jump in front of Baltimore for Queen. In retrospect, I think they may have been afraid of New England jumping back into the first round.

 

I will stand by my earlier thoughts about taking a QB this high...if you think #12 will be able to play for another 4 seasons (until age 40), this year is too early to get the heir apparent, since you’re hoping not to see him until after you’ve exercised the option year.

 

Conversely, this team is also one blindside hit away from needing a backup QB, and Aaron wasn’t the same player last year as we’ve seen in prior seasons (not nearly as accurate). Part of me thinks making the chip on 12’s shoulder that much bigger is going to be the best motivation imaginable.

 

The model for NFL teams in the last decade plus is GM, then HC, then QB. If this keeps the engine strong for another decade, it will end up a lot better than it feels right now.

[LouisEly]

It sounded like Seattle was actively looking to trade down, so if they stood pat someone could have moved up to Seattle's spot.

[PeaveyFury]

I have the odd feeling that the Packers are going to pick more than twice today. Doesn't make a bit of sense, but I've felt it all morning.

 

I do seriously wonder, considering the depth of the draft this year, would they consider trading a 2021 pick for another today?

[PeaveyFury]

Is it just me, or does Gute trade up just a few spots a LOT? Seems like he locks in on one particular guy and panics if has any inkling that his pick is at risk.

 

I don't have a problem with that. If you have a guy that stands out on your board, that's when you should make a move to get him, or like they did in 2018, sets you up to drop back. It also allows for the use of draft capital like the Patriots historically have done. It's what got the Saints' 1st two years ago, and resulted in getting Alexander and Savage, both of who seem to have worked out very well so far.

 

If anything, I think the current regime has showed a high knowledge of other people's boards and preferences, and they know when the risks are necessary.

[nodakfan17]

I do seriously wonder, considering the depth of the draft this year, would they consider trading a 2021 pick for another today?

I would - and ordinarily, I’m the last guy to advocate for that type of move. However, 2021 could be the weakest draft in history if there’s no college football next season. Plus, they’ll still likely have 3 compensatory picks to help backfill depth.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I do seriously wonder, considering the depth of the draft this year, would they consider trading a 2021 pick for another today?

I would - and ordinarily, I’m the last guy to advocate for that type of move. However, 2021 could be the weakest draft in history if there’s no college football next season. Plus, they’ll still likely have 3 compensatory picks to help backfill depth.

 

I think every other team knows this as well. In fact, there might not even be a 2021 draft. I doubt any 2021 picks get moved.

[RollieTime]

Extremely disappointed with this draft. Not saying that Love won’t be good in the future, but Rodgers has said that he wants to play into his 40’s he is under contract for 4 more years. This type of pick was 2 years too early in my opinion.

 

Dillon is a fine player if we needed a running back, but we already have a pretty dynamic backfield with Jones and Williams. Unless one of those two is on the move, this pick as well as the Love pick truly does not make us better. Jones and Dillon won’t be on the field at the same time. Love will be on the bench. Our first two picks literally did not improve the team RIGHT NOW.

 

Deguara I suppose is a fine pick at best. Our third round pick last year in Sternberger must not be progressing as they hoped. Is he going to be THE guy to lead the TE position for us in 2020? If not, then this is a head scratcher as well.

 

My big gripe is the first two picks. Instead of improving the team now by bringing in basically anything else (OL, DL, LB, WR, CB), we brought in guys that are blocked. If you wanted a quality backup QB, should of signed someone like Brian Hoyer and used the first on something else.

 

Very unimpressed with Gute’s first 3 drafts. I have yet to read and catch up with others’ opinion on the draft and will do so. But I will gladly say that Gute can go and I would be perfectly fine with it. His three drafts are more than enough in my opinion to see that his talent evaluation and decision making through the draft is not where it needs to be. On top of that, pissing off your franchise QB who plans on playing another half decade for you certainly isn’t ideal.

[PeaveyFury]

Extremely disappointed with this draft. Not saying that Love won’t be good in the future, but Rodgers has said that he wants to play into his 40’s he is under contract for 4 more years. This type of pick was 2 years too early in my opinion.

 

I do think people are taking the 'Rodgers wants to play 4 more years stuff' a bit too literally. Who's to say that if he has another season where he regresses, or has another chunk of time lost due to an injury, that he doesn't hang it up much sooner?

 

Dillon is a fine player if we needed a running back, but we already have a pretty dynamic backfield with Jones and Williams. Unless one of those two is on the move, this pick as well as the Love pick truly does not make us better. Jones and Dillon won’t be on the field at the same time.

 

I'd bet that Jones and Dillon are on the field together a lot. I'd say their lack of drafting a WR implies that they mean to use Jones in a receiving role heavily.

 

Deguara I suppose is a fine pick at best. Our third round pick last year in Sternberger must not be progressing as they hoped. Is he going to be THE guy to lead the TE position for us in 2020? If not, then this is a head scratcher as well.

 

LaFleur's offense is known to rely heavility on two-TE sets. Deguara's pick says little to nothing about Sternberger, except for the idea that they wanted a TE that blocks well, and that's secondary to Sternberger's skills as a receiver. Logical to take a 2nd TE that does well there, as otherwise you're playing Mercedes Lewis a lot more than you should.

 

Very unimpressed with Gute’s first 3 drafts. I have yet to read and catch up with others’ opinion on the draft and will do so. But I will gladly say that Gute can go and I would be perfectly fine with it. His three drafts are more than enough in my opinion to see that his talent evaluation and decision making through the draft is not where it needs to be.

 

I think it's a big reach to judge anything about the first three drafts when the third is literally still in progress. The success of this draft will largely rely on Love, and that means the jury will be out for 3-5 years. Last year's draft actually looks really good, so I'm not sure where the criticism lies there, especially with Sternberger and Gary still with largely incomplete grades thus far. And I'm still out on 2018, though we're at the point where it's tilting to poor. Alexander has been fantastic, and it WAS his first ever draft, FWIW.

[adambr2]

I think my prejudice against Dillon is that he reminds me so much of Alex Green. I can't think of a single running back that we've drafted in the last 30 years before day 3 that has panned out even remotely well save for Eddie Lacy.

[brewcrewdue80]

Like it above Rollie.

 

Here it is obvious now that Gute has no willingness to having players fall to him. I like what hed drafted for 2019, but he took Gary at a position where there were at least 3 if not 4 equal options for a DE/OLB. Trade down pick who falls to your lap. Darnell Savage wasnt expected in the 1st round. Gute moved up 9 spots to take his guy. Jenkins was a great pick but again higher than rated. Could he have moved down and taken him. Sternberger was a perfect pick close enough to say he actually had him drop in to his lap. But say by 10picks.

Now we look at the Love draft. Did he really have to move up 4 spots to pick him? Why not Queen who fell to 26? LB starter year 1 and could be your LB for 10years? Certainly Queen wasnt going to fall to him but why wasnt Love going to? 4th round pick cost because of his once again itchy trigger finger. Dillon? 2nd round? Reach. Trade down vs draft far early. Last the TE. Nobody anywhere had him above the 5th round. But Gute like a bad QB locked his eyes on his target and never scanned the field for the wide open receiver standing alone in the endzone. Takes a 5th round guy at best with his 3rd. This is my disgust with his drafting skills. Its not that I hate the players, its the value of the draft pick capitol being poorly spent. Not to mention the tunnel vision this is my guy Im pulling the trigger. We started this draft with around 1850 draft capitol. While Love was technically a draft pt gain, Dillon and certainly the TE were draft value losses. Taking a 20 pick value from 64 to 84 and a 1st pick 5th rd value from 96 is 184points. We won technically 33pts on Love but total thats 151pts or about the 88th pick in the draft. Wouldnt it be nice to be sitting here discussing another top 100 draft pick? And Id easily say the same for last year. Gute is losing a top 100 pick now in B2B drafts.

[PeaveyFury]

Did he really have to move up 4 spots to pick him?

 

The issue is, just because you don't know doesn't mean the Packers didn't know something. You/we have a fraction of the information that the teams have, and we have almost nothing regarding what teams like what player and who is looking to move around, when teams have ways of knowing. For all the crap the Packers took from fans for taking Gary at 12, it came out later that the Giants really liked him and may have taken him at 17. In YOUR mind, there were 3-4 equal options, but in the PACKERS' mind, Gary was likely enough ahead that they weren't content to slide back and take a lesser player on their board that fell to them. Other than basing our views off some random guy's mock draft online, we have no clue where a guy like Jenkins goes last year if the Packers don't take him. MOCKS ARE WRONG EVERY YEAR. That's how '1st round guys' like Baun and Jones slide to the 3rd every single year. They're best guesses, not gospel.

 

I find it funny that Gute is now being criticized for doing the opposite of what Thompson was criticized for- Ted took a very passive approach in the draft, and would often drop back 5-7 slots if they had 3-4 guys on the board they were comfortable with. Gute is identifying players that he feels stand out on his board, and he's going to get them. Packer fans literally only want the draft conducted the way they personally would do it, which is funny when the Packers have a solid history of being smarter than the fans are.

 

As I've said, I wouldn't have done it this way. And it's the type of draft that will get Gute fired in 2-3 years or cement himself as a genius GM. But trying to determine which of those is true during the fourth round of the draft itself is basically impossible.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Like it above Rollie.

 

Here it is obvious now that Gute has no willingness to having players fall to him. I like what hed drafted for 2019, but he took Gary at a position where there were at least 3 if not 4 equal options for a DE/OLB. Trade down pick who falls to your lap. Darnell Savage wasnt expected in the 1st round. Gute moved up 9 spots to take his guy. Jenkins was a great pick but again higher than rated. Could he have moved down and taken him. Sternberger was a perfect pick close enough to say he actually had him drop in to his lap. But say by 10picks.

Now we look at the Love draft. Did he really have to move up 4 spots to pick him? Why not Queen who fell to 26? LB starter year 1 and could be your LB for 10years? Certainly Queen wasnt going to fall to him but why wasnt Love going to? 4th round pick cost because of his once again itchy trigger finger. Dillon? 2nd round? Reach. Trade down vs draft far early. Last the TE. Nobody anywhere had him above the 5th round. But Gute like a bad QB locked his eyes on his target and never scanned the field for the wide open receiver standing alone in the endzone. Takes a 5th round guy at best with his 3rd. This is my disgust with his drafting skills. Its not that I hate the players, its the value of the draft pick capitol being poorly spent. Not to mention the tunnel vision this is my guy Im pulling the trigger. We started this draft with around 1850 draft capitol. While Love was technically a draft pt gain, Dillon and certainly the TE were draft value losses. Taking a 20 pick value from 64 to 84 and a 1st pick 5th rd value from 96 is 184points. We won technically 33pts on Love but total thats 151pts or about the 88th pick in the draft. Wouldnt it be nice to be sitting here discussing another top 100 draft pick? And Id easily say the same for last year. Gute is losing a top 100 pick now in B2B drafts.

 

This whole paragraph makes the assumption that teams value players exactly the same, according to whatever value board you are looking at. The fact is each team attaches different values to players, and the draftniks that put those value boards together are doing so based on their own personal values of those players, not any team's board. While it is easy to spot reaches at times, player value is often clear as mud. Teams select players based on fit and on their own research that indicates how they value them, and how other teams value those players. Your point system is fun to look at, but it is likely extremely inaccurate when it comes to how a team actually values the players they pick.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think my prejudice against Dillon is that he reminds me so much of Alex Green. I can't think of a single running back that we've drafted in the last 30 years before day 3 that has panned out even remotely well save for Eddie Lacy.

 

Just because you haven't had luck in the past doesn't mean you remove the position from your upper-round draft board. All it takes is one hit to change perceptions.

[LouisEly]

Here we are getting close to the Packers 5th round pick, and Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyler Johnson, Quez Watkins, Quintez Cephus, and Isaiah Hodgins all still available and all WRs that I think can be good enough to be WR 2/3.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here we are getting close to the Packers 5th round pick, and Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyler Johnson, Quez Watkins, Quintez Cephus, and Isaiah Hodgins all still available and all WRs that I think can be good enough to be WR 2/3.

 

Peoples-Jones has "Packers pick" written all over him. High-end athlete with a great RAS score who underachieved in college.

[reillymcshane]

Packers get 'worst draft' award from the Sporting News.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-grades-2020-best-worst-classes/2bs9w101joku1lruu8r1xwt9f

 

Yeah, I get it, drafts aren't won on reviews the day the drafts completes. Just thought I'd share.

[adambr2]

Minor rant -- can we please stop saying "Look what the 49ers did to us!" as rationalizing that building a run first team is the way to go? This is still a passing era and passing league.

 

It's not like the 49ers have just been neglecting their passing attack like we have the last couple drafts.

 

(2017!!) was the last year that the 49ers did NOT take a receiver in the 2nd round or earlier. The last time we DID? 2014.

 

They traded for Jimmy G, they traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They have been making huge investments in trying to build a passing attack.

 

They ran the ball down our throats in the NFC championship game because they knew we couldn't stop them, and they were right. Not because of some sort of longstanding strategy they've had to just focus on running the ball.

[adambr2]

Packers get 'worst draft' award from the Sporting News.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-grades-2020-best-worst-classes/2bs9w101joku1lruu8r1xwt9f

 

Yeah, I get it, drafts aren't won on reviews the day the drafts completes. Just thought I'd share.

 

NFL.com only gave one team below a B for draft grades: Packers. By far the lowest at C+.

[adambr2]

Gute: "We really like the group of receivers we have. We feel like we have some guys who are coming into our own. ... There's been some question of whether we're trying to transition into more of a running offense, I don't think that's it at all."

 

Also Gute: "Matt really wants to tie everything to the run game and off the run game, and these guys will help us do that.”

 

Wot