2020 Packers Draft Thread

[PeaveyFury]

What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.

First round picks have a fifth year option, second round picks don't - they are only controlled for four years. Moving down into the second round means losing the value of that fifth year option.

 

I think many of these draft value charts were established before this was in the collective bargaining agreement, and thus underestimate the difference in value between a late 1st round pick and an early 2nd round pick.

 

I don't think that is as prevalent as you might think. If you're using one from a source that currently covers the draft, it should be factored in.

[BMuch25]

Haven’t been following this thread so I apologize if this is already been posted but if you’re looking to kill some time you can have some fun with the draft simulator.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine

 

I ran about 10 simulations. I was able to select Murray or Queen in 9 of 10 mocks. None of the WR fell to #30.

 

However, in one mock, Herbert fell to the Packers 2nd round pick. I took him, but felt it wasn't a good overall draft since I missed on most of the WR talent.

[brewcrewdue80]

Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?

 

Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick

 

Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps.

 

What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.

 

About the first one I'd seen when googled.

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

 

The value obviously comes out in GB's favor. I just don't believe all trades are of equal value. Houston doesn't have a 1st round pick. They'd lose their 2 twos to have 2 threes and 2 5s. It's something reasonable to maybe believe they'd do. Essentially they moved up while gaining 1 draft pick.

 

Personally I think if GB moves back from the first round we're looking at maybe for a QB that's fallen and wanted(Jordan Love) or say RB with WI Jonathon Taylor.

Looking at early 2nd round choices the Colts have the 2nd pick in 2nd round to move up to select a QB. Wouldn't be much dropped back but you'd have an overnight to get a feel for what's going to be selected ahead of your choice, what is left over atop your board and maybe how far back you could move based on what you think the next 3-10 picks are shaping up as being.

The Chargers make sense on a move up from their 2nd rd pick to draft a QB(ideally they've moved back and not selected Tua) Pair up that 2nd rd pick with one of the picks they maybe got from the 1st round trade down(a late 3rd choice ideally or GB would have to send something back SD's way.

 

As LouisEly mentioned, I think trade value sites are ignoring the 1st round control. Maybe somewhere there could be an agreement on what that value is worth. The fact #32 is valued at 590 and #33(1st) in 2nd is valued at 580 shows just that. Maybe values where the draft pick trade down involves moving out of first and trading up from below 1st round should be like 50pts addition needed. Looking back from 2017 the Browns trade for 29 for 33 a trade value site would give GB a +20 only on the move down. So based on that I'm off but it is something to maybe question Football GMs on the subject.

[brewcrewdue80]

Going over the Packers selections and it would really seem to me that they will trade down out of the 1st round. This draft seems to be deep at WR but also OT I'm reading.(WalterFB has 18WR top 4Rd grade vs 14 and 13OT top 4 grade vs 10last season) I think GB would want 4 shots at this depth in the 1st 3 rounds vs just 3. All of their draft picks except the 1st 6th round pick are extremely late in the rounds. That basically means low trade capitol or blowing a draft pick in the following round to move up less than 12 spots. My guess would be moving down in to 2nd. Taking their 5th and early 6th to move in to bottom of 4th or early 5th round. Just draft the late 6th and 7th round choices. You hope to get a WR/ILB/OT with 3 of the first 4 picks you now have in top 3 rounds. Nab 2 guys late in 4th round that is left high on your draft board that fell. 6/7 rounds just much the same either your draft board BPA or you fill out some ST.

 

6picks during rds 2,3,and 4.

Trying to target what the draft order is currently and draft capitol there's not much in way of matching up or ideal sense. I'd have to assume where the trade comes from will be from the multiple teams who trade down ahead of GB's pick that use the capitol to trade up to GB's selection in the 1st rd. Jacksonville is who I'm going to target in this. Have #9, 20, and 42. Have a Lot of needs, QB included in them. Move down from 9 however they like. Use 42nd pick plus a pick from that trade(mid 3rd) or late 3rd plus #116. Jordan Love or Jacob Eason seem like the extra year control QBs who will be around at 30 with bordeline 1st rd pick grades. Jaguars will have added 3 1st rd choices for the future and WR/QB pairing could be 2 of them.

[OldHeidelberg]

I don't think that 5th year is as big a deal as I thought it would be when they added it. For guys at the end of the 1st round it is hit or miss whether it will be picked up, it is a pretty expensive year, and for a QB if he pans out as a blue chipper you will be looking at a big time extension by then anyway. I think it sometimes puts GM's in a bad position of choosing between giving a mediocre player(Trubisky!) a huge one year deal or conceding that he blew the pick. It helps that you can delay extending guys like Clark and HaHa for a year but that's about the best you get out of it, like I say the really good players are going to get bigger extensions anyway or would be franchised without the 5th year anyway.

[LouisEly]

Some in-depth reviews of the guys I have going to the Packers in the first and third rounds. Both agree with where I have them being picked:

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/27/prospect-for-the-pack-boise-state-ot-ezra-cleveland/

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/07/prospect-for-the-pack-wyoming-lb-logan-wilson/

[brewcrewdue80]

Some in-depth reviews of the guys I have going to the Packers in the first and third rounds. Both agree with where I have them being picked:

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/27/prospect-for-the-pack-boise-state-ot-ezra-cleveland/

 

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/07/prospect-for-the-pack-wyoming-lb-logan-wilson/

 

It amazes me that Wilson can be seen so well yet be considered a 4th round type of pick. WalterFootball has him as the 10ranked ILB but when you read the little blurb on him he should be somewhere in the in the top 5 if not 3rd. He just sounds better. Maybe the age is a problem?

 

GB could move their 4th,5th, and first 6th round pick to move up to roughly the top 5 picks within the 4th round. Don't see how he'd make it to bottom of 4th round and don't see why Gute would leave GB with 4 picks in the 200s. Wilson would need to be drafted in the 3rd round if they really think hes their guy.

 

If I add up the sum of every Packer draft pick value they essentially have enough to move up to the #14 draft pick and be done with the entire draft. That's really bad. Take the top 5 total, that total moves to #15 draft pick. Really poor draft capitol, good draft volume.

Going to need that luck where all our needs and talented players fall in to our lap or a trade of one of next season's draft picks to get who you wont in these first 3 rounds.

[LouisEly]

Walter is one of the worst draft predictors out there. He said Amik Robertson will be lucky to be drafted when he declared early; the consensus is that he'll be a 3rd round pick, and NFL.com has him as #66 overall. The one that has the simulator is almost as bad as Walter.

 

I find NFL.com to be the best predictor/evaluator. They have the most access to NFL team scouts.

[patrickgpe]

There is some chatter about the packers taking Love at 30. I just don't see it. Rodgers has said he wants to play until he is 40, so there shouldn't be that much urgency to get the QB of the future. That being said, once FA resumes there are some decent backup options that the packers could sign on the cheap that you would atleast have a vet with starting experience on the roster.

 

I did do a mock draft this afternoon on fanspeak, if it turns out this way, I'd be happy. Wish I could have got a WR earlier but this is how It turned out.

 

30: R1P30 LB KENNETH MURRAY OKLAHOMA

62: R2P30 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME

94: R3P30 OT BEN BARTCH ST. JOHN'S (MN)

136: R4P30 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN

175: R5P29 G SOLOMON KINDLEY GEORGIA

192: R6P13 C JAKE HANSON OREGON

208: R6P29 LB JOE BACHIE MICHIGAN ST.

209: R6P30 S TANNER MUSE CLEMSON

236: R7P22 WR AARON FULLER WASHINGTON

242: R7P28 DL BRODERICK WASHINGTON JR. TEXAS TECH

[Mr Southpaw]

There is some chatter about the packers taking Love at 30. I just don't see it. Rodgers has said he wants to play until he is 40, so there shouldn't be that much urgency to get the QB of the future. That being said, once FA resumes there are some decent backup options that the packers could sign on the cheap that you would atleast have a vet with starting experience on the roster.

 

I did do a mock draft this afternoon on fanspeak, if it turns out this way, I'd be happy. Wish I could have got a WR earlier but this is how It turned out.

 

30: R1P30 LB KENNETH MURRAY OKLAHOMA

62: R2P30 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME

94: R3P30 OT BEN BARTCH ST. JOHN'S (MN)

136: R4P30 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN

175: R5P29 G SOLOMON KINDLEY GEORGIA

192: R6P13 C JAKE HANSON OREGON

208: R6P29 LB JOE BACHIE MICHIGAN ST.

209: R6P30 S TANNER MUSE CLEMSON

236: R7P22 WR AARON FULLER WASHINGTON

242: R7P28 DL BRODERICK WASHINGTON JR. TEXAS TECH

 

Getting Murray at 30 would be sweet. Bachie is a machine tackler, but not much of a pass defender. Nice draft.

[brewcrewdue80]

I will say this. Ive seen the QB mocks to GB Froom, Eason and Love. I dont think its good use on a pick unless you were really believing they were the next Rodgers/Favre. So few picks of value, I want the team surrounding Rodgers or the Defense with help for the next 3+yrs. Let the QB of the future fall in to our hands, vs forcing the QB backup and future. Let the next bad season with a top 12 pick be the opportunity to replace Rodgers. We've been spoiled since 1992, I can handle 2years or even a decade of 3-6win seasons if it meant Rodgers&co went on to win a SB. Hate to see them spend a 1st or 2nd rd pick on somebody who wont take the field unless your #1 player is injured. Draft one in last 4 picks and be done with it.

[LouisEly]

I made a few updates to my draft prediction post on p.2 of this thread based on some new scouting reports I've read.

 

Gil Brandt of NFL.com thinks even higher of my picks than I do. He has Ezra Cleveland at #23, Lynn Bowden Jr. at #44, Logan Wilson at #63, Jake Luton at #102, and Reggie Robinson at #118.

[superfly]

I wouldn’t be opposed if the value was right at 30 spending it on Love. Fromm I don’t see it at all, but Love has that “look” of there being possible greatness if it can be tapped properly.

 

More likely I think we’re shopping the pick to trade down

[GAME05]

No way Love makes it all the way to GB. Every time there's a down year for QBs they get predicted to drop, but every year they get picked early. Safe bet the Lions will trade down so somebody else can grab Tua (Miami), but I wouldn't be surprised if somebody got Washington's pick at #2 just to be sure nobody else jumps in and grabs him. Then I'm sure the Lions would be overjoyed to get that Ohio State DE.

[Mr Southpaw]

No way Love makes it all the way to GB. Every time there's a down year for QBs they get predicted to drop, but every year they get picked early. Safe bet the Lions will trade down so somebody else can grab Tua (Miami), but I wouldn't be surprised if somebody got Washington's pick at #2 just to be sure nobody else jumps in and grabs him. Then I'm sure the Lions would be overjoyed to get that Ohio State DE.

 

The Lions are in a sweet position. Trade down and get extra picks or get Chase Young. The only way they can mess it up is to trade down and then pick garbage.

[CheezWizHed]

They are the Lions, so there is a way they can mess it up...

 

I think it might be a year early to draft a QB (based on Rodger's contract and the impact of cutting him), but you can't pass up the BPA if they fall into your lap. Much the same was said when we drafted Rodgers.

[brewcrewdue80]

Seen a mock I could go with. NFLspinzone has one where the Colts trade up to GB for their 34pick and 75th pick. Perfect. Now with the added pick they get WR Jalen Reager, TE Cole Kmet, #75 for IDL Davon Hamilton and 94 for LB Troy Dye. Perfect lineup filling needs while not reaching.

 

I might have gone with Chase Claypool if you were planning to draft a TE potentially with your 2nd pick. Be a complete field of matchup nightmares with Sterberger, Claypool, Kmet, Lazard lining up for Lafleur's running schemes to block with. Probably pick your best OL left on your board with the 5th pick. That would be a HR draft for me.

[nodakfan17]

There was a very interesting question posed in today’s Ask Vic column. Basically, someone asked if teams would be more likely to trade 2020 draft picks for 2021 draft picks because there’s a small chance the NFL season could be cancelled. Vic pointed out that if there’s no college season this Fall, next year’s draft class would be the weakest ever since players could be granted extra eligibility or may need to stay in school to prove their worth. That would also make the Packers’ comp picks less valuable.

 

https://www.askvic.us

[MadThinker88]

They are the Lions, so there is a way they can mess it up...

 

I think it might be a year early to draft a QB (based on Rodger's contract and the impact of cutting him), but you can't pass up the BPA if they fall into your lap. Much the same was said when we drafted Rodgers.

 

Let me ask this: IF the Lions ended up with Chase Young (very unlikely but possible), would the Packers alter their draft strategy at all??

 

IMHO keeping Rodgers upright & healthy is paramount to the Packers making a playoff run. No Rodgers = no post-season.

[CheezWizHed]

They are the Lions, so there is a way they can mess it up...

 

I think it might be a year early to draft a QB (based on Rodger's contract and the impact of cutting him), but you can't pass up the BPA if they fall into your lap. Much the same was said when we drafted Rodgers.

 

Let me ask this: IF the Lions ended up with Chase Young (very unlikely but possible), would the Packers alter their draft strategy at all??

 

IMHO keeping Rodgers upright & healthy is paramount to the Packers making a playoff run. No Rodgers = no post-season.

 

Those two comments were independent and unrelated to each other. One post above mine was speaking about how the Lions couldn't mess it up. One post prior to that was talking about the Pack drafting a QB.

 

Rodgers is a very good QB but isn't elite anymore. If we had another very good QB backing him up, the tune would be a little different. My preferred (all things being equal) selection at #30 is an OT. But if our next franchise QB fell to us, I would be jumping all over it. It is just hard to know at the time of the draft if they will be a franchise QB or not. I think our tackle situation is manageable for this year if we pass on one high in the draft.

[bjkrautk]

CBS Sports is reporting on Bob McGinn's draft research (which I miss now that it's behind the paywall at The Athletic), and pointed out Iowa's Nate Stanley scored a 40 (out of 50) on the Wonderlick test. Wouldn't mind spending a Day 3 pick on the guy, if GB doesn't take someone earlier.

[brewcrewdue80]

Seen a mock I could go with. NFLspinzone has one where the Colts trade up to GB for their 34pick and 75th pick. Perfect. Now with the added pick they get WR Jalen Reager, TE Cole Kmet, #75 for IDL Davon Hamilton and 94 for LB Troy Dye. Perfect lineup filling needs while not reaching.

 

I might have gone with Chase Claypool if you were planning to draft a TE potentially with your 2nd pick. Be a complete field of matchup nightmares with Sterberger, Claypool, Kmet, Lazard lining up for Lafleur's running schemes to block with. Probably pick your best OL left on your board with the 5th pick. That would be a HR draft for me.

 

Welp, that idea via draft values would be a huge loss by the Colts. More appropriate value would be their 44th and 75th. Which likely feels like to far a drop. They could do the 34 and 75 but at the cost of GB's 94th. That would mean no Dye in this idea. It really would be great to have 4 picks in top 3 rounds and if it meant lowering to 44 I'd stick with it. Getting 4 picks in the first 3 rounds has to guarantee getting your future LB, #2WR to pair with Adams. the other two picks you can go whatever way you want. OL or DL. TE or a 2nd OL/DL.

[PeaveyFury]

An increasing number of mocks have Denzel Mims going to Green Bay at 30.... can anyone sell me on the pick? Seems like a guy that you could trade back and get in the early/mid 2nd, and I'm always freaked out by guys that rocket up draft boards because of combine performances.

[JosephC]

Gutekunst had no problem taking Savage with the #21 pick and he was probably considered no better than 4th/5th round prior to the combine. Kevin King was considered a late third/early fourth rounder prior to the combine and had a late first/early second round grade after the combine. GM-speak says they "take the best player" but it's been pretty obvious over the last few years that the current NFL puts about 80% of a prospects grade in the workout numbers and about 20% of their grade on the actual film. I suspect that has more and more to do with coaches seemingly having a larger say in most organizations, and coaches always want athletes because they think that they have that magic touch and can "coach them up."

 

I think with the WR's it's probably Lamb, Jeudy and Ruggs as the first three and then a pack of about 7 guys that will all go in the #20-#60 range and those guys could go in just about any order. Mims is in that group and it's not crazy to see him as the 4th best WR in the draft or the 10th best wide receiver in the draft. I can see where Packer fans would be scared of Mims as his pluses and minuses look somewhat similar to Valdes-Scantling....tall fast guy that can make some plays down the field but that might be all he can do. Of course if he ends up like Randy Moss and seemingly makes 3 or 4 big plays down the field just about every game then you really don't care if he has other deficiencies. But if the big play only happens once every four games then you have a bust on your hands.

 

I kind of like Justin Jefferson the best out of that group, but I'm probably biased because I watched him make a mockery of that Oklahoma defense and that might not be the best gauge to use. I just like him because he seemed pretty quick and efficient with his movements...the one big knock was his speed and then he ran a 4.43 at Indy....so his speed is actually pretty good. Jefferson probably does have a lower ceiling than most of the guys in that group after the first three, but he probably also has the highest floor.

 

That said, the other thing GM's always say is that they always take the best player and don't draft on need...but when I look at the Packer's roster to me it looks more and more like ILB is the biggest need and that is probably where they go with pick #1.

[PeaveyFury]

Jefferson does seem to be sliding down into the 20s more and more. I'd strongly prefer to take him if they go WR 1st, otherwise, take your pick of whomever from the second tier is there at 62.