2020 Packers Draft Thread

[superfly]

Watching every minute lol...haven’t tuned in much the past few other than the whole first round.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Watching every minute lol...haven’t tuned in much the past few other than the whole first round.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire draft is broadcast on ABC. It's going to get enormous ratings. We are still just under 3 weeks away, and people are already begging for anything resembling normalcy. The only live or new source of any legit information is local and national news, and as we all know, most of that is anything but positive. Watching a bunch of NFL talking heads on a glorified Zoom meeting isn't ideal, but 99.9% of sports fans will gladly drink that down like the smoothest IPA you can find.

[adambr2]

Watching every minute lol...haven’t tuned in much the past few other than the whole first round.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire draft is broadcast on ABC. It's going to get enormous ratings. We are still just under 3 weeks away, and people are already begging for anything resembling normalcy. The only live or new source of any legit information is local and national news, and as we all know, most of that is anything but positive. Watching a bunch of NFL talking heads on a glorified Zoom meeting isn't ideal, but 99.9% of sports fans will gladly drink that down like the smoothest IPA you can find.

 

Yep. I signed up for a free month of WWE Network just to watch Wrestlemania. I haven't given a crap about wrestling since the 90s.

[nodakfan17]

Not draft related, but wanted to alert all Packer fans:

 

Fox is re-airing Super Bowl XLV in its entirety this afternoon from 2-5 pm. I’m not sure if this is nationwide or just in select markets.

[CheezWizHed]

Minneapolis had it on. I caught it from the end of the 3rd quarter through the 4th. Brought a tear to my eye.

[paul253]

Haven’t been following this thread so I apologize if this is already been posted but if you’re looking to kill some time you can have some fun with the draft simulator.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine

[adambr2]

Minneapolis had it on. I caught it from the end of the 3rd quarter through the 4th. Brought a tear to my eye.

 

My wife (girlfriend at the time) claims to this day that when the 4th down pass from Big Ben fell incomplete, she went to hug me and I gently nudged her out of the way, to jump into the arms of my best (guy) friend, and sobbed.

 

I don't totally remember it like that, but I respect her recollections.

[CheezWizHed]

And since she still married you, you are wise to "remember" it that way too.

[patrickgpe]

Haven’t been following this thread so I apologize if this is already been posted but if you’re looking to kill some time you can have some fun with the draft simulator.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine

very similar to fanspeak. ran through it a few times for the packers, not loving what I am seeing available at 30, knowing that these things don't let you move up or down and are based on rankings on one "expert". fun to do, helps you learn about who could be around when the packers pick, but that's about it.

[CheezWizHed]

Actually, I didn't think it was too bad.

- First round, all of my preferred WRs were gone, but I had my choice of ILBs Queen or Murray and my preferred OTs Jones and Cleveland. I picked Queen.

- Second round, I just missed out on TE/WR Claypool, but had my selection of WRs DPJ, Aiyuk, and Pittman. I picked DPJ.

- Third round, I saw Ben Bartch; I took Ben Bartch.

 

Second attempt:

- First: Got Mims this time. Both Queen and Murray were gone. Jones and Cleveland still available.

- Second: Grabbed Cole Kmet. Pittman and DPJ still there.

- Third: Grabbed Troy Dye. Bartch wasn't drafted in the three rounds at all.

 

 

Given the first scenario, i would've traded down in the first round, if possible. But i'd be happy with a draft of Queen/DPJ/Bartch. Sure its "need based", but I can't claim to really evaluate DPA either.

 

In the second (upon retrospect), I would've gone down again with Cleveland lasting to 49. Lots of 2nd round WRs available still. MLBs are pretty weak beyond Queen/Murray.

[wallus]

I did the draft simulator and came up with the following:

 

1. J. Jones- OT

2. C. Claypool- WR

3. T. Biadasz-OL

4. L. Bowden- WR

5. T. Muse- S/LB

6. L. Jackson- CB

7. J. Kelley- RB

8. R. Williams- DL

9. J. Runyan- OT

10. R. Windsor-DL

 

I went a little Big Ten heavy probably. I also think they will consolidate a pick or two to trade up.

[paul253]

I like the Runyan pick. He can line up at either guard or tackle.

[CheezWizHed]

I did one simulation with the premise that someone would trade up for a QB at the end of the 1st round.... then I realized that there are no QBs really slated to be drafted there. Sure, someone else could move up, but QB is a big incentive given the 5th year contract.

 

The more I see the draft, the more I expect the Packers to pick an OT in the first round (or their first pick). That might change if Mims or Queen drop to them, but otherwise it seems like OT is the value pick there.

[wallus]

 

The more I see the draft, the more I expect the Packers to pick an OT in the first round (or their first pick). That might change if Mims or Queen drop to them, but otherwise it seems like OT is the value pick there.

 

I am really high on Jones and would be thrilled if he made it that far.

[Jenkins5]

One really underrated aspect in gaging prospects for Packers. Gute is very high on players with high Relevant Athletic Scores (RAS). He has actually only drafted three players who had sub par scores (Jamaal Williams, Cole Madison, & Jace Sternberger). It scales 0-10.

 

Out of 28 picks

16 scored 9.0 or higher

5 scored 8.0 to 8.99

3 scored 7.2 to 7.99

3 scored 4.55- 5.24

1. Couldn’t find JK Scott

 

2017

King 9.95, J. Jones 9.29, M. Adams 7.89, Biegel 8.83, J. Williams 4.55, D Yancy 9.07, A Jones 9.22, K Amichia 9.8, D Mays 7.69, M Dupree 7.2

 

2018

Alexander 9.54, J. Jackson 9.27, O Burns 9.73, J Moore 8.84, C Madison 4.59, Scott NA, MVS 9.27, EQ St. Brown 9.84, J Looney 9.75, K. Donnerson 9.89

 

2019

R Gary 9.95, D Savage 8.35, E Jenkins 9.34, Sternberger 5.24, K. Keke 8.02, K Hollman 9.27, D. Williams 8.17, T Summers 9.71

 

I never knew or thought about it until I was debating about Higgins & my buddy informed me, he simply isn’t a Gute guy. He isn’t the kind of athlete he targets. Higgins is a 4.2 RAS I believe. So went back & researched a lot on it & it is clearly a strong trend for Gute. So now when I go through & do my rankings & projections I mostly only look at guys over 7.5 RAS. Helps narrow down the field of who I think they will be high on. With 90% of his picks being over 7.2 ( two lowest 7.0’s were 7th round picks, M Adams was a 7.9) Id expect that to continue.

[PeaveyFury]

Wasn't 2017 the last Ted draft, not Gute?

[Jenkins5]

When talking Tackles we are pretty safe to assume Thomas, Wirfs, Wills, and Becton will be off board by then. All are high RAS guys as well. People are all over the board after the top 4 tackles but it is a deep class. Ezra Cleveland is a guy I could see Packers loving. He has the 9.93 RAS which is incredible. Great size at 6’6 310. Great fit for outside zone. He’s been flying up boards lately which makes me think 30 is not a stretch. Or a trade back into early 2nd.

 

However, he does give off Spraggs vibes to me which cools my interest. Like Spraggs he is a fantastic athlete (Spraggs was 9.73 RAS) but like Spraggs a big knock is he struggles verse power. He really needs to improve in that area.

 

This OT class is very fun to study & follow with lot of options.

In Day 2 a lot of options.

 

Niang is a 1st round talent but injury & not testing hurt stock. Strong & athletic kid.

 

Prince Tega Wanogha another really good athletic tackle who injuries knee that cost him senior bowl & Combine. Then Covid cost him a pro day. All that could drop him down to Packers. Believe he would have tested very well. Basketball background & very smooth.

 

Saahdiq Charles Has had off field issue & did not fully participate in combine & no pro day. Missing 6 games due to suspension hurt but has high ceiling & is consider strong in mobility & working in space.

 

High RAS options

Austin Jackson (9.47), Matt Peart (9.03), Jack Driscoll (8.89), H. Adeniji (7.82), and I. Wilson (7.23)

 

I really like Austin Jackson and think in 2nd round that would be a solid pick. Wilson is a big boy at 350lbs but moves very well for size. Tough to see him fitting in an outside zone offense though.

[Jenkins5]

Wasn't 2017 the last Ted draft, not Gute?

 

You are correct. Got that mixed up. If you go back further To 2012 when Gute took over as director of College Scouting & then 2016 as Director of Player Personal. Packers have continued to put high value on RAS. He was one of TT’s top guys. I got some free time so I’ll get the trend down on paper & type it up. I’m fascinated by this revelation

[PeaveyFury]

Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?

[Jenkins5]

Went back trend is more from 2015-2019 drafts.

 

2019: 7 of 8 were 7.0 or higher

4-9.0, 3-8.0, 1-5.0

 

2018: 8 of 9 were 7.0 or higher

7-9.0, 1-8.0, 1-4.0

 

2017: 9 of 10 were 7.0 or higher

5-9.0, 1-8.0, 3-7.0, 1-4.0

 

2016: 5 of 7 were 7.0 or higher

2-9.0, 1-8.0, 2-7.0, 1-6.0 1-NA

 

2015: 6 of 8 were 7.0 or higher

1-9.0, 3-8.0, 2-7.0, 1-6.0, 1-5.0

 

Before that much more all over the board. Just think it is an interesting scouting trend that can be used to assess fit with Packers and part of what they are looking for. Of course it doesn’t include what they do on field. We know Packers also care a lot about versatility especially on the line. They also value length on perimeter.

 

As for the trade down, depending on how the board falls. There are some guys I’d jump on if there at 30 but most may be off board by then. Mims & Jefferson at WR & Queen & Murray at MLB are 4 that could still be there. If any are, hard to pass on. Other than that Houston trade would be great to do!

[brewcrewdue80]

Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?

 

Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick

 

Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't care for moving down if we end up with fewer picks (i.e. both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175.). I did a draft simulation with the Houstanr #40/#90 for our #30 and there were a lot of nice players still at #90, while still having OTs Jones/Cleveland available at #40. That would be an ideal situation in my opinion.

 

Of course, that all depends on who is available at #30 at the time. If Mims, Queens or someone else drops down, I wouldn't trade down. If QB Love falls to us, we should demand a high cost trade down scenario from someone (like Indianapolis).

 

This year, having more lower picks is going to be important due to the lack of Pro Days for most players. I think we will see a lot of sleepers come late in the draft.

[PeaveyFury]

Interesting trade back idea- Houston is at 40, and their 1st of 2 2nds and their 3rd = 640 on the value chart, while #30 is 620. Move back 10 spots to grab an extra 3rd in a deep draft?

 

Move back 10 spots, and get the 3rd pick #90 of the 3rd round. Nope, they should pay more for the 1st round control GB is giving up. I might have to ask for both 2nd round picks 40 and 57 for #30, GB's 3rd round #94, and the 5th round pick #175. There just has to be more gotten in return to move out of the 1st round than just a low 3rd pick

 

Pairing 90 and 94 has a #65value. Otherwise you're staring at a "deep draft" with only 2 picks at 40&62 followed by 90/94. That's a lot of hope and a prayer to wait til 90 for that depth to fall on to your laps.

 

What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.

[homer]

I'm all about extra assets.

[LouisEly]

What value chart are you using for your values? I think you're over-estimating the value of the '1st Round' label a bit. 10 spots isn't a huge drop at all, especially in a draft with more talent than usual in the 2nd-3rd rounds. The difference between the player taken at 30 vs. 40 is likely lesser this year than typical.

First round picks have a fifth year option, second round picks don't - they are only controlled for four years. Moving down into the second round means losing the value of that fifth year option.

 

I think many of these draft value charts were established before this was in the collective bargaining agreement, and thus underestimate the difference in value between a late 1st round pick and an early 2nd round pick.