Freddy Peralta signs long-term extension with Brewers

[MrTPlush]

Now, if they can just get something similar (albeit richer) done with Woodruff...

Agreed on Woodruff. Depending on how risk-averse you are, do it with Burnes as well. In fact, give Burnes the same deal as Peralta. I have a tremendous amount of faith that these three will be leading the rotation for the next five seasons.

 

They already control Woodruff past the age of 30, not much reason to add a ton of risk on him.

[igor67]

From a player perspective I agree for a pitcher this should be a no-brainer, unless you you have a gambling problem. If I had some time to think I'm sure just with young Brewer pitchers I could come up with a big list of players who in retrospect would have loved a super early career deal. Nuegebauer and Saenz come to mind right away. The position player risks are somewhat lower, so I would not expect the same level of 'discount' but it is really more career insurance than a discount. The conventional contract valuations for young players rarely seem to properly account for the flame-out risk accurately on the player side. Players only get 1 career to play the odds with whereas the team has many chances so they can actually make-up the losses.

[adambr2]

Agreed with TPlush. Woodruff is already controlled until he's 32. Really zero reason to do anything long-term with him unless you think you can buy out his arbitration years at a discount. He's actually a better fit to go year to year with.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Agreed with TPlush. Woodruff is already controlled until he's 32. Really zero reason to do anything long-term with him unless you think you can buy out his arbitration years at a discount. He's actually a better fit to go year to year with.

 

You're right. These sort of contracts only really make sense on guys who reach the majors at a very young age. Hiura and Urias would be fits. Of course, Arcia would have been a good fit for this sort of deal coming off his 2017 season, so there are inherent risks too.

[Warning Track Power]

Agreed with TPlush. Woodruff is already controlled until he's 32. Really zero reason to do anything long-term with him unless you think you can buy out his arbitration years at a discount. He's actually a better fit to go year to year with.

I am coming at this more from a cost-control perspective. If Woodruff continues his ascendancy into an elite arm, he could be looking at significant salary increases when he becomes arbitration-eligible. If the Brewers could extend him past the 2024 season (when he becomes a FA at 31) for an additional year or two, it may be worthwhile.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Peralta seems like he should at minimum be a solid bullpen piece. If the expanded repertoire helps him turn into a quality starter, this could really help the Brewers

[monty57]

From a player perspective I agree for a pitcher this should be a no-brainer, unless you you have a gambling problem. If I had some time to think I'm sure just with young Brewer pitchers I could come up with a big list of players who in retrospect would have loved a super early career deal. Nuegebauer and Saenz come to mind right away. The position player risks are somewhat lower, so I would not expect the same level of 'discount' but it is really more career insurance than a discount. The conventional contract valuations for young players rarely seem to properly account for the flame-out risk accurately on the player side. Players only get 1 career to play the odds with whereas the team has many chances so they can actually make-up the losses.

 

Yes, this is very much like insurance. The risk is being transferred from the player to the team, so the amount the team saves (relative to what they may have paid if he hits full potential) is kind of a premium paid by the player for the chance that he flames out or gets injured.

[MrTPlush]

Agreed with TPlush. Woodruff is already controlled until he's 32. Really zero reason to do anything long-term with him unless you think you can buy out his arbitration years at a discount. He's actually a better fit to go year to year with.

I am coming at this more from a cost-control perspective. If Woodruff continues his ascendancy into an elite arm, he could be looking at significant salary increases when he becomes arbitration-eligible. If the Brewers could extend him past the 2024 season (when he becomes a FA at 31) for an additional year or two, it may be worthwhile.

 

I would agree if we were talking a positional player, but not a starter. Woodruff has already shown to much to really get a big discount from arby prices. Considering the enormous risk of him simply not continuing to be TOR level and the injury risk not sure we would have an easy time locking him up. Due to his age those FA years aren't crazy exciting either. Early/Mid-30s pitchers are always a big wild card. He may not be effective before those potential years even kick in...or we may pick them up and he simply isn't good anymore.

 

Woodruff is simply one of those guys you should probably just wisely go year to year with. If he is great until FA tip your cap in a display of gratitude for his work. Peralta is essentially no risk even if he flames out...Woodruff would require some serious cash to be tossed around that is a bit more risky.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, Woodruff coming up late-ish is the exact type of guy the current system really harms as he can't hit FA until a late age. As a small market team, the Brewers have to take advantage of that as much as they can. Sucks for him but it's not the Brewers fault, it was negotiated in the CBA. As an example, Jimmy Nelson would've been another one in this same situation and we see what happened there.

[TJseven7]

Everything MKE does in the off season is done to avoid long term risk. They just absorbed the risk on this one.

 

They see a pay-off. They don't take on risk without a ton of upside. I'm pretty confident they have Peralta in the rotation day 1 and they feel his off season work is going to dramatically improve him. You don't just do this stuff. You do this stuff when it becomes clear that if you don't act now, you are going to miss your shot.

 

Good move. They could win this deal before the option years and walk away laughing once they get to the option years. Even as a normal (not Hader) fireman pen arm the price is roughly FAIR for the first 5.

[Ennder]

Pretty good money for a guy coming off a 5.29 ERA season.

 

I would hope that even the worst run teams in MLB wouldn't actually care about ERA when evaluating a pitcher with this small track record. I mean maybe the Orioles would use it but all of the rest of the teams are smarter than that. It would be like saying Hiura wasn't very good last year because he didn't get enough RBI, it just isn't a stat that means anything useful.

[brewcrewdue80]

Good contract. The guaranteed is low. The upside on pucking up the options is great. Peralta becomes say the next Johnny Cueto huge win with the FA years being drastically low. If He is just an avg RP I'd say the guaranteed money essentially buys one of those yearly. I think the loss in this situation would only be if he starts 3seasons and is a poor #5 before tossing him in the bullpen to at least give you avg RP value.

They did this with Chase a few years back but I dont think the upside was ever there. Just the #3-4 value in it.

[Eye Black]

To me this is a great sign that the club thinks Freddy is primed to step up his game. If they weren't pretty sure of the guy, this would not happen.

This was my first thought as well. The timing of this extension following a September run where Peralta was lights out in the bullpen, and on the eve of a season where Peralta is going to be unveiling a new pitch (slider) may not be a coincidence. If the Brewers believe he is on the verge of a possible breakout this is a great time to “gamble” on a deal like this which includes team options for additional years of control. I really hope this ultimately proves to have foreshadowed big steps forward for Peralta in the 2020 season.

[MrTPlush]

Pretty good money for a guy coming off a 5.29 ERA season.

 

I would hope that even the worst run teams in MLB wouldn't actually care about ERA when evaluating a pitcher with this small track record. I mean maybe the Orioles would use it but all of the rest of the teams are smarter than that. It would be like saying Hiura wasn't very good last year because he didn't get enough RBI, it just isn't a stat that means anything useful.

 

The point is Peralta just banked $16mil with zero sustained MLB success and a whole lot of struggle. Not a bad day. The deal made a lot of sense for both sides.

 

I think Joseph comprehends things outside of ERA and what upside is...maybe not, but I think he does.

[nate82]

Peralta on why he signed the extension.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/2/28/21158082/i-made-the-decision-for-myself-and-my-family-freddy-peralta-reacts-after-signing-extension

 

We saw this with Acuna and Albies last year when they signed with the Braves. I wonder if there will be more early signings with the international players and locking in a guaranteed contract earlier in their career rather than waiting for free agency or going through arbitration.

[clancyphile]

Agreed with TPlush. Woodruff is already controlled until he's 32. Really zero reason to do anything long-term with him unless you think you can buy out his arbitration years at a discount. He's actually a better fit to go year to year with.

I am coming at this more from a cost-control perspective. If Woodruff continues his ascendancy into an elite arm, he could be looking at significant salary increases when he becomes arbitration-eligible. If the Brewers could extend him past the 2024 season (when he becomes a FA at 31) for an additional year or two, it may be worthwhile.

 

This is my reasoning for Woodruff as well.

 

Right now, the Brewers could get a cost-contained/cost-certainty extension at $10-$12 million per year. If you can buy out two or three free agent years at that price, you get an elite arm for a Matt Garza price.

 

Then you can either have him anchor the rotation, or you have someone with a ton of surplus value to deal for reloading the farm system.

[TJseven7]

5IP

5K

.4 Whip

[Ennder]

I think woodruff did enough last year that he probably isn't giving a discount this year no matter what. He is betting on himself at this point. Burnes or Houser are better targets for extensions for pitching. Kind of like Hiura is a bad target because he was just too good last year, but if the team believed in Ray which I don't think they do, he would be the guy to extend at this point.

[TJseven7]

I think woodruff did enough last year that he probably isn't giving a discount this year no matter what. He is betting on himself at this point. Burnes or Houser are better targets for extensions for pitching. Kind of like Hiura is a bad target because he was just too good last year, but if the team believed in Ray which I don't think they do, he would be the guy to extend at this point.

 

You think Houser would (or would you want to) want to be bought out until he's 32?

Burnes is owned through 29 so it makes sense to add 1 more.

Peralta doesn't hit 31 on this deal.

 

I think 30's a pretty serious number for most pitchers. We already control Houser through 30. Burnes through 29 and he's done less than Peralta to this point. Woodruff is already owned though 31, so you'd only be trying to avoid arby.

 

I don't think the MKE risk management collective would have pulled the trigger on this if Peralta wasn't so young.

[Ennder]

Fair enough, I thought Houser was like 25 not 27. There is just no way that Woodruff signs this type of deal coming off such a good season imo.

[adambr2]

In August of 2017, Jimmy Nelson was a pitcher in his late 20s having a huge breakout season and was the unquestioned ace of the Brewers staff.

 

Now, it's legitimately questionable if he will ever pitch in the big leagues again. Stuff happens, probably moreso to pitchers than anyone else.

 

Every guy is different. Maybe Woodruff is hoping to break the bank in arbitration, or maybe if he had $20M in guaranteed money on the table today he'd sign it in a second and never worry about money again. Couldn't fault him for it either way.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think where you read Peralta's agents mildly upset he took this deal, is where youve gotta see Woodruff's agents at. Pitch this season, set a true value, not a projected one. For all the troubles Nelson had he made. 7.4mil the last 2 years. Nelson did that behind 1 terrific season. Woodruff has that now under his belt. Another season like last year and Woodruff will hit Arb over the 3.7mil Nelson got. Falls back somewhere above 4ERA and under 160IP, that's still in the Nelson territory, which is good money. The difference in an extension though would be pretty great. Woodruff could be looking at himself as a final Arb season over 20mil vs say 11-13. Just enjoy the ride with no thoughts on a contract extension til next year.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Have we heard the terms of this contract yet?

[bork]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/freddy-peralta-24582/

 

2021 - $1 Million

2022 - $2.25 Million

2023 - $3.5 Million

2024 - $5.5 Million

2025 - $8 Million option

2026 - $8 Million option

 

Contract Notes:

Cy Young Bonus:

1st: $500,000

2nd: $250,000

3rd: $150,000

4th: $100,000

5th: $50,000

All Star: $100,000

Gold Glove: $25,000

$50,000 each for WS MVP, LCS MVP, Comeback POY, Silver Slugger, Reliever of the Year

[brewcrewdue80]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/freddy-peralta-24582/

 

2021 - $1 Million

2022 - $2.25 Million

2023 - $3.5 Million

2024 - $5.5 Million

2025 - $8 Million option

2026 - $8 Million option

 

Contract Notes:

Cy Young Bonus:

1st: $500,000

2nd: $250,000

3rd: $150,000

4th: $100,000

5th: $50,000

All Star: $100,000

Gold Glove: $25,000

$50,000 each for WS MVP, LCS MVP, Comeback POY, Silver Slugger, Reliever of the Year

 

Looks like this year is 1.725.

Buyout 1.5mil if not picking up the first option. Maybe that applies to both option years if Crew picked up first but then didnt want to the 2nd?