Overbay, Carlos Lee just your average Major Leaguers

[DougJones43]

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Without Lee in the lineup, Jenkins would have had more RBI opportunities and more RBI's as a result

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i think geno was pointing more towards a concern with jenkins' plate approach changing significantly if he feels he's the only true slugger in the lineup, rather than lee's low OBP affecting jenkins' rbi opportunities. if jenkins doesn't have other run producers (before or after him in the lineup) he starts trying to pull the ball out of the park all the time, and that can lead to some pretty bad at-bats / cold-streaks. i tend to agree with this philosophy about jenkins, and his below-average numbers from 2004 (his only season without another true slugger) would seem to support this, although there may have been other factors at work as well. however, i don't necessarily know that means we need to keep lee around in 2006 to shoulder the load of right-handed slugger. rickie weeks anyone?

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And repeating the idea in every one of your posts won't change that

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hey, look what happened with corey hart. people constantly scoffed at the idea of hart moving back to third, but look what happened. legitimate talks about him playing some 3B have resumed. let a man dream! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[DHonks]

come on Clancy, Lyle isn't a leftfielder by his own comments. Now, he hasn't said he can't play 3b or catcher, so maybe you could pencil him in there

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"i think geno was pointing more towards a concern with jenkins' plate approach changing significantly if he feels he's the only true slugger in the lineup, rather than lee's low OBP affecting jenkins' rbi opportunities. if jenkins doesn't have other run producers (before or after him in the lineup) he starts trying to pull the ball out of the park all the time, and that can lead to some pretty bad at-bats / cold-streaks."

 

You beat me to my own clarification, DJ43. Thanks!

 

I recall a year (I want to say 1999?) where Jeromy was hurt for 3+ weeks, leaving Geoff to fend for himself as lone RBI threat, and he was kicking that front leg out like an angry mule, and swinging at pitches so far inside, the 1st base coach would flinch!

 

Jenkins, when healthy, can thrive when properly supported by a more dominant, scarier slugging threat, so he can relax and be the Robin to Jeromy's, Richie's and now Carlos's Bat Man. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif Sorry...

 

"...you should be wary that Brewerfan.net appreciates not having a huge amount of repetition from one poster harping on the same idea... "

 

Aw, c'mon, pogo! If it weren't for beating a dead horse into the ground with multiple posts about the same topic, I'd be out of bidniss! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[backup catchers]

If this Statement from my previous Post didn't spellout My Support 4 Carlos I don't know what else I can do 2 help You understand???

 

Just a suggestion snuff. I know it's been suggested before but maybe repeating it will help.

Try SPELLING out your posts. You have some good points but trying to decifer your posts with all the 2's, 4's and various shorthand hurts your credibility. I am not trying to insult you by any means just trying to help.

[RedbirdRay]

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First of all, Ray, welcome. Haven't seen your posts here before.

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Thanks, haven't posted a lot here yet...but, I am impressed by the site and also impressed with the percieved number of knowledgable baseball fans on this site. I love the discussions.

 

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Now, on to your post excerpted above. You write that Kevin Mench and David Dellucci produce basically the same amount of offense as Carlos.Not even close.Over the past 3 years:...

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I agree, when you measure over a 3 year span...it's not close. However, when you measure on last year alone, it's much closer. Also consider the salary gap has a much wider margin than the gaps in the 3 year picture.

 

Lee last year:

.265/.324/.487 with 85 runs, 32 HRs, and 114 rbis. 13/17 stolen bases, an EQA of .275. He also had a -9 FRAA, which translates to fielding in the Pete Incaviglia range (awful).

 

Delucci last year:

.251/.367/.513 with 97 runs, 29 homers, and 65 rbis (often hit leadoff), an EQA of .288 and a FRAA of 3. He was 5/8 stealing (should have a red light).

 

Mench last year:

.264/.328/.469 with 71/25/73 an EQA of .263. FRAA = 3 and he was 4/7 stealing.

 

 

 

If those Rangers hit cleanup in your lineup, they would probably have similar runs and rbi stats to Carlos. Those are a measure of the lineup around a player, not the player.

 

The point I was trying to make was more about the bang you can get for your buck, than a straight up comparision of Carlos to what's available by trade. For example, what if you traded Carlos and his $8,500,000 option straight up for $500,000 David Delucci and used the $8,000,000 left over to make a push for Brian Giles? He should draw $10 per year and is worth it.

[rluzinski]

i think geno was pointing more towards a concern with jenkins' plate approach changing significantly if he feels he's the only true slugger in the lineup

 

I understood what he meant. I just don't really agree with it. Jenkins get's scared if he's expected to be the top run producer?

 

This is the guy, when marred in a HORRIBLE slump, which prompted people to say he was done (me included) said, "Naaaaaaaa, I'll be fine." I've never seen him put stress on himself at all. He's always sounded as confident as ever.

 

Jenkins scored almost the same percentage of his base runners that Lee did. If Lee hadn't been there he probably would have done the same. Jenkins has been a star his whole life. I'm sure he can handle it.

 

Why is everyone obsessed with finding direct cause-effect relationships for everything? Things aren't that simple in the real world.

[DHonks]

when looking at Carlos' season, remember, his numbers were below his previous years in Chicago, and he also was adjusting to a new league, which favors pitchers much more than hitters

[endaround]

Not really. They were below his 2004 but fairly in line with his previous seasons (lower average, more power). And keep in mind the Cell gives away HRs more than any other park.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"And keep in mind the Cell gives away HRs more than any other park. "

 

More than Colorado? Cincinnati? Philadelphia? Houston?

 

And even so, has this been the case over years and years, or just this season?

[endaround]

Well it almost always goes without saying Coors in on another plane. So of normal parks, The Cell is a big HR park and tops in the AL.

The Cell isn't a great hitters park but it is a very good home run park and has been for a while. 2nd behind Coors this year, 1st last year, 2nd behind Coors in 2003, 6th in 2002, 8th in 2001 and even those years, it has a ranking of above 20% above average.

[obobo55]

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I recall a year (I want to say 1999?) where Jeromy was hurt for 3+ weeks, leaving Geoff to fend for himself as lone RBI threat, and he was kicking that front leg out like an angry mule, and swinging at pitches so far inside, the 1st base coach would flinch!

 

Jenkins, when healthy, can thrive when properly supported by a more dominant, scarier slugging threat, so he can relax and be the Robin to Jeromy's, Richie's and now Carlos's Bat Man.

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Geno, how much of it is simply the opposition delivering more cautious pitches? With the lineup we had over the past 3-5 years, if you take the other big bopper out of the lineup why would the pitcher give Jenkins anything to hit? With guys like Helms and Counsell hitting in the 6-7 spots?

 

One could argue that in that situation Jenkins needs to take the walk, but that goes against your image of the run-producer. You consistently argue that you want your cleanup hitter to swing and drive in runs at the expense of OBP.

 

The thing that is nice about our club as it has added talent is that we actually have decent bats manning the 6 and 7 spots much more often. Opposition managers cannot afford to pitch around the 4-5 spots and assume they can just K (another reason I am happy Branyan might be gone) or induce a weak grounder from those players anymore. Whether it is Hall or Weeks or Fielder hitting in those spots next year, each are a good bet to hit a line drive and all still have the power element necessary to scare the opponent with the threat of a bomb.

 

We still lack the true big bopper. Carlos appeared to be that for about 1 1/2 months this year. That guy where you truly fear throwing the ball over the plate in any way. The hope is that Fielder and Weeks develop into that type of hitter, but they need some time to adjust to MLB pitching.

 

My only fear with Carlos is that by the time we are really contender level (not next year), he will be a very expensive player that cannot bring the thunder to represent that salary. The Brewers will likely be forced to make that decision sooner than later, do they wish to take the risk of inking him to the large deal he is certain to want and deserve based on his current level of production? Can they afford to lose his services with very little compensation? My answers to both of those questions are both NO, so I look to turn him into other assets while his value is highest. If the deals do not formulize, well then I guess I will stick it out with him and hope for the best, but I have to entertain the offers.

[Snuffzilla]

Upon further Review,

 

Thanx everyone 4 Your Feedback. Positive & Negative.

 

1) I've read the Article

 

2) Maybe I've let My Frustrations get the best of Me. Carlos is 1 of the Guys that made our Offense 'Go' in 2005. & it's frustrating 2 feel like others don't recognize this. I'm glad DM did. If his #'s are Average, great. I'll take 'em & expect his BA 2 Improve. My understanding is he's a Career .290ish Hitter. Similar Power #'s can be expected. His Leadership in the Clubhouse is Priceless as well.

 

3) My Posts Use Shorthand & Economizing from Years in the Media Biz. I'm not an English Major, but I'm not Jethro from the Beverly Hillbillies either. If some have trouble w/ Abbreviations & Contractions, sorry, they're everywhere in everyday Life. It's not the NBA & I don't feel We all need 2 Dress/Look a like.

 

I've got my Flava & everyone else can have there's. See Ya @ the Ballpark...

[RedbirdRay]

His career line is .284/.337/.488. Baseball-Reference.com lists those careers most similar by age as: Leon Durham, Jermaine Dye and George Bell.

[bbrauch2000]

wasnt Bell an MVP?

[1992casey]

Carlos Lee age-based similar players, beginning at age 30 through the end of their careers or through last year.