Overbay, Carlos Lee just your average Major Leaguers

[RyDogg66]

...according to this website they are the most average 1b and LF in the NL last year.

 

www.rotoauthority.com/200...avera.html

 

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When evaluating players for fantasy baseball or in real life, it helps to have a baseline. We all kind of know that 20 or more homers is decent, and a guy should hit at least .270. But it's even better to take a look at the average NL first baseman and determine that in 2005 he hit .280/.361/.483. (Batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage).

 

We can all agree that we don't want anyone below average on our fantasy team, and a large number of average guys, no matter what their reputations, won't help either.

 

Without further ado, here is a completely average National League batting lineup for 2005, around the diamond.

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Quote:

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1B - Lyle Overbay. Funny how this year's .276 looks so much worse than last year's .301. In the case of Overbay, getting fifteen less base hits this year helps us realize he's always been average.

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LF - Carlos Lee. Surprisingly, Lee is the garden-variety NL left-fielder this year. On the surface, 32 HR and 114 RBI sounds a lot better than average. But we're using OPS here, and Lee's on-base skills don't impress.

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[RightFieldCoder]

That's why some of us won't be upset if/when they are dealt for better players. They are average. Considering the past 13 years, average was great for us. Now lets get above average players, especially at 1B and LF where your power mashers are supposed to be.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"That's why some of us won't be upset if/when they are dealt for better players. They are average. Considering the past 13 years, average was great for us. Now lets get above average players, especially at 1B and LF where your power mashers are supposed to be. "

 

Ahh, Robin19, you crack me up!

 

Some roto service takes one season, doesn't factor in SBs (for a roto service?! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif ), durability, age nor consistency, and therefore labels Carlos Lee as "average." Fine.

 

Unfortunately, this short-sighted assessment which only factors in 2005 OPS, had led an otherwise solid Brewer fan like yourself to want to deal for a better left fielder.

 

*ahem*

 

Like who?

 

Give me a trade scenario, where we would not be adding much, if any, salary (because we can't boost our payroll to the $60,000,000 mark yet...or ever), and be getting in return a "power masher" as consistent as Carlos has been.

 

Could we trade for, say, Vernon Wells or Lance Berkman? 'Cause if we can, then yeah, let's do that. But that won't happen, because teams who have consistent young-ish slugging outfielders tend to keep them...as we should.

[LS Brewer]

The Carlos Lee assessment was extremely short sighted. Carlos had one of, if not the, lowest OBP season of the past four years in 2005. He still had great power numbers. The lesson is that only looking at this one years' OBP fails to account for the three good years previously.

[dadofandrew]

Carlos should be on his way down, as he's well past 27. Expecting him to match or better career highs is asking too much.

[nsimps]

3 years is "well past"? Who was that guy that was 30 this past season and was one of our best hitters?

[danzig6767]

I'd keep Lee for next season unless given an offer so good we can't refuse.I dont see a better option ready to play LF next year and the team has been making a nice profit two years in a row.They can afford his option.

[nsimps]

I think Lee might be traded at the deadline this season. If the Brewers are serious about contending this year it would be nice to have Hart and/or Cruz prove themselves at a Major League level before giving them a starting job.

[RotoAuthority]

Hi. I wrote the article in question. It was just a fun exercise to see which players played closest to the league positional averages in 2005. Lee actually kind of got a break in that left fielders this year were the worst they've been this decade.

 

With a career .825 OPS, Lee is definitely an average LF. Maybe a below average one in the long term. OPS isn't perfect but I think it works well enough here. He hasn't done anything to make us think that his .324 OBP this year was some sort of fluke - it was .331 in 2003 and .337 for his career. Lee's not old, but he's definitely on the decline. He matches up very closely to the 1988 version of Kevin McReynolds:

 

www.baseballprospectus.co...ke01.shtml

 

But that doesn't mean he's a bad player or a useless one. As was said earlier, he still has some value and should be traded for something good and cheap to clear the way for the young guys.

[RotoAuthority]

"Some roto service takes one season, doesn't factor in SBs (for a roto service?! ), durability, age nor consistency, and therefore labels Carlos Lee as "average." Fine."

 

 

He definitely has more value in the roto world, but when I use OPS I'm not really referring to that. 32 HR, 114 RBI, and 13 SB look nice from a LF on paper. At a 72% success rate, it's debatable whether Lee's steals have added any value at all over the course of his career.

 

Age is probably a point against Lee...there's no reason to think his peak is ahead of him. Consistency, well, I guess there's something to be said for staying healthy and not sucking.

[dadofandrew]

Roto is 100% correct in his analysis. There's plenty of value in a mediocre LF, especially if he makes $400K. Carlos, at $8M, better produce, or he's a wasteland.

[RedbirdRay]

Among National League LFs, Carlos finished...

 

9th in VORP

17th in EqA

7th in Win Shares (THT's version).

 

I would consider that slightly above average considering many of the guys lower didn't hold the position for the whole season. He's paid much better than he factors.

 

However, I think Carlos served more of a purpose to the team than his value as a player. At the start of '04, not many people knew about the readiness of the youth down on the farm. At face value, the Brewers had few names to draw fans to the park. Attempts to court big-name free agents didn't draw interest. A trade for a name that would help put fans into seats was a good move. Now people know about what kind of team is around the corner. Trade him.

[endaround]

The only reason Lee was so high in VORP was the fact he got near 700 PAs. Counting on that again (even if thats a good thing) isn't smart.

[colbyjack]

The only reason Lee was so high in VORP was the fact he got near 700 PAs. Counting on that again (even if thats a good thing) isn't smart.

 

The one very good thing Lee has done in his career has been to stay healthy. It's amazing to look at his seasons and see how much he has played over his career. For a guy that has used VORP extensively in many arguments to find a reason that is quite possibly his strongest attribute to discredit his VORP is hard to swallow.

 

I agree that Lee is a league average LF, but a league average LF is still a pretty darn good hitter. I also agree that $8.5 million may be a little steep, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin deal him if the right deal came along, but I'm not going to go out of my way to cut down his accomplishments from this past season.

[endaround]

All I'm saying is that a non-lead off hitter usaully doesn't come to the plate that much. I'm not saying Lee will get injured but he seemed to nose dive in September after missing what, one PA the entire season? I really doubt he can be expected to make every single appearance going forward and I'm not sure is smart for him to do so. Its not so much reducing what he did but offering comment on projecting that forward.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Is there a link showing who the other 7-8 NL LF that were better than Lee, and the other LF who were worse. Just curious. I searched the site but I didn't see anything like that, just the NL average lineup. Just curious.

[whizkid]

Edit: This post intentionally left blank.

[Snuffzilla]

Yeah, Carlos was a TERIBLE Run Producer 4 Us. What a frickin' Joke of an Article. & I didn't even need 2 Read It.

 

27 ain't Old. & how quickly People 4get his 1st Half. He'll be better next Year & more Consistant. 4 him 2 go anywhere the Deal would need 2 include STUD SP.

 

Some People are foolish enough 2 think the Grass is Greener on the other Side...How quickly they 4get the Offensive Struggles of 2004...

 

& Lyle is Quality. Nothing Spectacular but at the very least Average. You certainly can Win w/ the Guy...

[RotoAuthority]

RedBirdRay - I'm with you on Lee's added value for the club - ultimately if he puts butts in the seats he's worth it. Statistically average or not.

[RotoAuthority]

Advantage - Baseball Prospectus has the average NL left fielder with stats of .272/.348/.457, for an OPS of .805. I picked Lee because his .811 was closest to that mark among qualified LFs. Kind of back of the napkin but I think it works. The only qualified NL LFs who had a worse OPS than Lee:

 

Ryan Klesko

Pedro Feliz

 

Those better:

 

Best to just check out this link at ESPN.

 

sports.espn.go.com/mlb/st...d=a&pos=lf

 

He's not a horrible player or anything, just my pick for the most average NL LF.

[RotoAuthority]

As for the VORP debate, if you want to normalize for Lee's durability and not give him credit for 700 PAs, use VORPr. If you rank NL LFs by that stat with min 300 PAs, Lee is 12th out of 18. Behind Jeff Conine, Ryan Church, Reggie Sanders...

[ja002h]

What a frickin' Joke of an Article. & I didn't even need 2 Read It.

 

Riight, and that's where your ability to comment on it ends. At least RotoAuthority is actually backing up his reasoning with stats. That's just a stupid statement.

[AdvantageSchneider]

So if you go by just OPS and LF who qualify, Lee would look to be less than the average NL LF.

 

Miller Park is probably a neutral hitters park. Lee is within 80 points of Burrell, and Burrell plays in a great hitters park. Holliday and Gonzalez are also higher than Lee, but they both play in severe hitters parks.

 

Maybe it's my eyes deceiving me but I just have a hard time thinking Lee is an average NL LF. Or maybe it's just the comparisons I draw in my head between him and Matt Meiske that make Carlos look so good.

[RedbirdRay]

Here are a couple links in regards to the rankings of LF's.

 

First of all, BaseballProspectus is a pay site, but some of the stats are free. This link will get you VORP for players. If you pay for the site, you can sort by "left fielders", but I'll give the link to the free overall list. It's all offensive players, so one will just have to sort out the outfielders.

 

www.baseballprospectus.co....php?cid=1

 

Here's a link for the same thing only EqA...

 

www.baseballprospectus.co...?cid=31187

 

 

The Hardball Times is a free site that lists Win Shares. I prefer the version of win shares they use. The downfall of this link is it only sorts by outfielders. I just factored out the LF's by hand when I considered the topic. Here's that link.

 

www.hardballtimes.com/main

 

 

In regards to no upgrade to Carlos for a trade, I'm not so sure of that. Trades are not just about face value, but also the money. For example, the trade that brought Carlos to Milwaukee was very much advantage Milwaukee until you consider the money. Was the 12 points of VORP Carlos had over Podsednik and the RP worth the $6.25 million difference in salaray? I think you could find just as/almost as good of an outfielder as Lee in trade for much less money. Consider teams like the DevilRays and the Rangers have a stockpile of outfielders. They don't need another outfielder, but you could trade Carlos for pitching and then trade some pitching for an outfielder. Guys like Kevin Mench, David Dellucci, etc. make a lot less money for basically the same amount of offense.

[backup catchers]

I guess this shows the dangers of one stat analysis. I doubt if any GM would consider him truly average. However he may have more value to the Brewers than another "average" lf because he is a right handed power hitter. Much of a players value has to be considered in the context of how he fits with the rest of the lineup. Lee was perfect for what the Brewers needed.