2005 Major League Equivalencies for Brewers prospects.

[dadofandrew]

Allow me to chime in, what a fine post, Joe. I would prefer some sort of age factor to let guys like Escobar look better, but that's not what this does.

 

Note that Hart is about an average corner OF, which is what many of us have guessed, and also seen, as he's hit the ball well, albeit in bad luck.

[emunney]

H0FFY, I thought I was on top of this thread before you posted. I have to assume a chook is an x-factor you inserted/invented/learned down under. Good on you, mate.

 

Also want to point out that while Pujols, every year, has by any standard definition crushed, raked, been a great hitter, or what-have-you, he has not performed identically every year. His statistics fluctuate like anyone elses. Thus, while it's easy to say that he'll be good, it's only so easy because his margin of error is so huge: he would have to drop off substantially and "unpredictably" just to be not-great. And a crazy insane drop off would be required before anyone started calling him, say, Albert Poo Holes, whereas normal fluctuations might be more noticeable in a player who barely has his head above water, so to speak. There are many more players (many) who tread this line than there are Albert Pujolses (one).

[reillymcshane]

Fun article, whether you like the stuff or not. Thanks for posting.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Saw this on Primer today...thanks for posting it here Joe.

 

Sadly, I don't think the Davenport translations are available...they adjusted for age as well as league, park, etc.

 

Braun is the number that really stands out IMO...though his K/BB numbers are atrocious.

 

As for a point brought up earlier:

 

antone williamson: had a full 100+ game season at AA in which he posted an ops of .855.

 

Williamson put up that OPS in El Paso, which was an incredible hitters' paradise. Brewers fans might mistrust minor league stats because we have had so many hitters' parks in the past...El Paso, Denver, briefly Tucson, and more recently High Desert. (Now the pendulum is far in the other direction with all of our affiliates but Helena in pitchers' paradises.) I don't remember where Hughes played, but I'd guess it's the same matter of a park effect...you also see older 'prospects' put up good numbers in AAA that don't really reflect future potential.

[DougJones43]

points well taken, everyone. i concede that MLE is a much better tool than i had originally believed or gave it credit for.

[JoeHova]

no problem posting the MLEs guys, I thought they were quite interesting. I was waiting all year for them to come out. (I did my own too, but only for AAA players because that is the only level I had any translation info for. I wasn't sure I had done them right though, so I wanted to wait until someone more experienced put them out.)

 

Also, I was surprised too that Baseball Prospectus didn't put out the Davenport translations this year. That was the main reason I used to go to that site. I recall that they had Prince having one of the 5-10 best seasons in the minors last year when his age vs. level was taken into account, he'd have to be even higher this year.

 

I also agree that Braun was the real eye opener for me. He could be in the majors by the end of next year if he keep this up in AA (which is really where he should start, judging from the MLEs. No need to mess with A+ for him, imo.).

 

One more thing- Ryan Braun's MLE is higher than Stephen Drew's.

[H0FFY]

chook = chicken

[reillymcshane]

If I remember correct, prior to the start of the year, didn't someone post Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections for 2005?

 

It gave their projections for the Brewer players for 2005, including the minor league players if they played in the bigs this year.

 

Does anyone have those? I was curious how they came out. I remember people were upset up Overbay's projections - I think it was like .270 or something. And they had Branyon doing really well. That's all I recall.

 

I realize they're different from the MLEs - these were future projections, while MLEs are conversions based upon actual performance.

 

Thanks.

[1992casey]

I figured PECOTA was better suited for a new thread, so here it is:

 

Compare 2005 Brewers to PECOTA projections

 

EDIT: link fixed to reflect the fact that the topic was moved.

[1992casey]

Given the discussion in the current What to do with Carlos? thread, I figured I'd go link hunting, using a couple of JoeHova's quotes as a basis for a Google search.

 

Minor League Equivalencies (conversation between David Grabiner and Gary Huckabay

 

Sabermetric Manifesto - The Baseball Archive (Section V near the end: Other sabermetric arguments)

 

Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT: Abstracts Trom The Abstracts (2004-11-14) (Discusses the "myth 'that minor league batting statistics are not valid as an indicator of major league hitting ability'")

 

Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT: Abstracts Trom The Abstracts (2005-01-04) (Mainly miscellaneous comments)

[SoCalBrewfan]

Nice bump...I don't remember this thread...must have come up when I was out of town. A few people wished for age-related projections...

 

Davenport at baseball prospectus has done projections of peak major league performance based on minor league stats, park / league information (MLE type stuff) as well as age and some other factors (things like K rate, I believe, and mumbo jumbo like BABIP). As I understand it, for a 27-year old player, his projection would basically be equivalent to his MLE...for younger players more projection is involved, so the uncertainty is greater.

 

The link is down, but you can get there through the back door:

 

baseballprospectus.com/st...turedt.php

 

Some selected projections:

 

Prince Fielder: .296 / .395 / .575

Corey Hart: .293 / .359 / .530

Rickie Weeks: .295 / .379 / .597

 

Those three are eye-popping...Hart's most of all perhaps since he is not typically held in the same regard as Fielder or Weeks.

 

Brad Nelson: .257/ .351 / .432 (AAA stats only)

.290 / .365 / .478 (AA stats only)

David Krynzel: .243 / .302 / .388

Nelson Cruz: .244 / .328 / .421 (AAA only)

.256 / .328 / .483 (AA only)

Junior Gwynn: .246 / .335 / .308

Steve Moss: .282 / .339 / .446

 

More ammo for those who claim Moss is a better CF prospect than Gwynn or Krnyzel...which Nelson Cruz and which Brad Nelson do you believe?

 

Enrique Cruz: .282 / .328 / .479

Adam Heether: .284 / .341 / .462

 

I don't necessarily believe these, but if those were true that's two more 800 OPS infielders.

 

Lou Palmisano: .248 / .301 / .362

Alcedis Escobar: .301 / .332 / .419

Grant Richardson: .262 / .331 / .445

Hernan Irabarren: .286 / .346 / .362

Ryan Braun: .284 / .311 / .479 (WV only, but has him as 24?)

Charlie Fermaint: .256 / .312 / .472 (WV)