Am I nuts for thinking this? Woodruff and Burnes

[The stache]

The Brewers, historically, have suffered tremendously where pitching is concerned. Any time they've won big, they've done it largely with hitting. '82 when we went to the Series? Yount was the AL MVP. Molitor, Yount and Cooper all had over 200 hits. We hit a ton of home runs. Pitching? We had the 1981 AL MVP and Cy Young Award winner in Rollie Fingers coming out of the bullpen until he couldn't pitch. I'll go to my grave contending that if we had 1981 Fingers in the Series, we probably beat the Cardinals. And if 1982 Cy Young winner Pete Vukovich is healthy, too, eating up innings, the Cardinals don't have a chance. But even Vukovich wasn't a great pitcher. As far as Cy Young winners go, I don't know if he'd even qualify as average. He was 18-6. That's why he won the Award. That, and he played on the best team in baseball. His 3.34 ERA wasn't bad, but his 114 ERA+, his 4.02 FIP and 1.502 WHIP weren't especially good. Certainly not what you'd expect from a Cy Young Award winner.

 

The few times we've developed guys that could turn into top of the rotation starters, they've gotten hurt. Ben Sheets was absolutely dominant for a time. Jimmy Nelson was third in the National League in FIP in 2017, and then he tore his labrum diving back into first. There went his season, and the whole of 2018.

 

"The Brewers can't develop pitching". That's been the knock. That's what I've seen in online discussions away from our forum. When we've had great pitchers, they were rentals. Sabathia pitched out of his mind for half a season. Zack Greinke, who will be in Cooperstown-we had him for about a year and a half.

 

Am I crazy thinking that we could very well have one of baseball's top 1-2 rotation punches by the end of the year? Two home grown starters that have ridiculously high ceilings. After waiting so long, could this be the start of something special? Brandon Woodruff was an All Star last year. Of course, he got hurt, so he missed a big chunk of the stretch run. But all indications point to his being healthy to start 2020. Had he qualified, his 3.01 FIP would have been fifth in the Majors, behind Max Scherzer (2.45), Gerrit Cole (2.64), Jacob deGrom (2.67) and Charlie Morton (2.81). He'd have tied with Dodger Walker Buehler. Woodruff's 4.77 SO/BB ratio would have been 10th best in the Majors. At 27, and healthy, Woodruff is in his prime, and ready to go.

 

Then, there's Corbin Burnes. After a strong 2018 out of the pen, he was awful in 2019 in the rotation. They moved him back to the pen, where he had good and bad runs. But let's not kid ourselves. There might not be five starters in the bigs with clearly better stuff. Much has been made about Burnes' ridiculous spin rate. I'm not going into advanced metrics, and heat charts, etc. Suffice to say that a few things tweaked, including improved pitch location, and a better mix of his fastball and slider...this could be the year Burnes becomes a true ace.

 

Someone tell me that this is wishful thinking. That I'm being a homer. I just have a strange feeling, and I don't think I'm wrong.

[adambr2]

I don't think it's impossible, but I think it's really unlikely. You're asking for a whole lot to go right to even come close to that.

 

I'm a big believer in Burnes, but there's a lot of middle ground in performance between how bad he was last year and suddenly being an ace, and he's far more likely to be in that middle ground. I'm not sure Burnes will even be on the MLB roster for a big part of the year. They've got to get him back to a place where he's just confident in himself and his arm again before they can even think of dreaming on that arm.

[markedman5]

Lets see Burnes win a rotation spot before we start dreaming about him being a top of the rotation guy.........

[CheezWizHed]

I expected Burnes and Woodruff to do what Woodruff did last year and how Burnes got derailed is still a huge mystery to me. I expect him to make the rotation this year and stick. TOR level might be a stretch, but certainly a strong 2-3 isn't out the question, IMO.

[tmwiese55]

I guess I wouldn't say you're nuts as it is possible or feasible. But, I'd say you're extremely optimistic that's for sure and make a very bold low chance of hitting prediction. I'll take it, better than the negativity.

 

And in general, I agree with a Burnes bounceback this year.

[MadScientist]

Not nuts, just a big swig of Brewer blue kool-aid. But this is the time of year for that.

Spring hopes attorney.

[homer]

Even if they both pitch to their ceilings, I question how many innings they'll be allowed to throw. Woody threw 121 or so last year and about 115 the year before..will they let him get to 180? Burnes threw roughly 125 in 2018 but didn't hit 100 last year. Could he throw 150?

[owbc]

Spring hopes attorney.

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[JimH5]

I'll take the under.

 

Occasionally guys will emerge from poor performance or injury to show signs of potential greatness. But I don't remember seeing anyone rise from the depths of where Corbin Burnes was to the heights you're describing.

 

Jumps in performance are usually incremental, and there are so many increments between 2019 Burnes and top-of-the-league guy that it seems like a very remote possibility.

 

Still, it could happen, but there are players on every team for whom that's the case.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Woodruff: Opponents in 2019 produced a barrel -- a batted ball with optimal exit velocity and launch angle -- in just 2.6% of their plate appearances, lowest among regular starters.

 

He definitely has the stuff. Burnes does too. But to homers point, would they even be allowed to throw that many innings?

[Smichaelis9]

I think Houser taking the step Woody took last year, to being a legit high level 2 or low level 1, is more likely than Burnes taking that big of a jump. But I think there's a small chance, like others have noted.

[Zad Fnark]

What about Freddy?

[TJseven7]

As much as I'd love to see this I don't think Burnes is going to be in that level of talk before 2021. I don't think he starts the year in MKE. I don't want him in the pen.

 

Guy is coming off a nightmare season and they've changed approaches and there was a sports psychologist etc etc. I don't see that being a light switch moment for him. I believe it'll get him back on the right path and he'll grow back into the lofty expectations he had prior to 2019. I think he could build towards a pretty impressive 2021.

 

To be completely honest, I don't care if he's ACE level. Right now the Brewers have 5 years of control on Woodruff Lauer and Burnes. They aren't incredibly far away from Small Ashby File Supak and maybe Brown (with people warming up on Bettinger) having a shot at being MLB starters. Some feel Houser can start, there's talk of Peralta as well. They also have 5 years of control.

 

1-2 punch would be great, but the narrative that MKE can't develop starters could take a serious hit in the next 2-3 years when MKE has 5 starters that they didn't have to sign in FA.

 

5 controlled guys from our system (via trades or draft picks) starting in MKE and throwing 4.0 or below ERA ball would be a huge feat for MKE and I think it's highly possible in the next few years. In the coming years (as soon as 2021 or 2022) MKE should have 8 legitimate threats to be in the rotation via trades or draft picks.

 

and 3 could be lefty O.O (our farm is garbage )

Sure would be nice to see Lindblom do well and be able to flip him before the end of his deal.

[BrewCrewForever]

I really like Corbin Burnes and I do expect him to bounce back from how awful he was last year. But I am not sure he can take THAT big of a jump.

[BrewBalls]

I for one was convinced last Spring that Burnes was the best pitcher of our young trio and just as confident Woodruff was the one we should use as trade bait. Man was I wrong.

 

That being said, Burnes has down right filthy stuff and my hope is he can get his head straightened out with our new pitching lab and find his groove again. But like others have said, I’m not optimistic he will go from dud to stud in one season. If he can find his way back into the rotation before the All Star break is be optimistic by the time he reaches arbitration he will be considered our #2-3 starter for the foreseeable future.

 

On a side note, I’m extremely high on Drew Rasmussen and feel he will wind up in the rotation sometime in 2021.

[Tbadder]

I’m optimistic about Brewer pitching especially with the starters. The only player that doesn’t apply to is Burnes though. His fastball is straight as Taylor Jungmann and just as hittable if not more so. The double trouble for him is that he has to have the fastball to set up his formidable slider and he’s got to put it in the same plane as the slider, which is low, which means he’s gonna get pounded before he gets to the slider. He’s got to pitch up in the zone with the fastball which takes away from the effectiveness of the slider. Unfortunately for him he’s caught between a rock and a hard place. I’m counting on him like I counted on Jimmy Nelson last year. Hope I’m dead wrong because I can’t get that image of him striking out everyone in existence out of my head. Woodruff is a stud and I think he’ll be even more studdy this year.

[TJseven7]

The double trouble for him is that he has to have the fastball to set up his formidable slider and he’s got to put it in the same plane as the slider, which is low, which means he’s gonna get pounded before he gets to the slider. He’s got to pitch up in the zone with the fastball which takes away from the effectiveness of the slider.

 

I don't agree with this. He can lead with his slider, he can throw his slider for strikes. Keeping his FB down is what got him clobbered. He can work the majority of his FBs up and his sliders down and it'll still work. That's also exactly what it sounds like the brewers pitch lab is doing with him. If Chacin can throw the slider 60% of the time, so can Burnes.

[brewcrewdue80]

I’m optimistic about Brewer pitching especially with the starters. The only player that doesn’t apply to is Burnes though. His fastball is straight as Taylor Jungmann and just as hittable if not more so. The double trouble for him is that he has to have the fastball to set up his formidable slider and he’s got to put it in the same plane as the slider, which is low, which means he’s gonna get pounded before he gets to the slider. He’s got to pitch up in the zone with the fastball which takes away from the effectiveness of the slider. Unfortunately for him he’s caught between a rock and a hard place. I’m counting on him like I counted on Jimmy Nelson last year. Hope I’m dead wrong because I can’t get that image of him striking out everyone in existence out of my head. Woodruff is a stud and I think he’ll be even more studdy this year.

 

I see via statcast, what you say is very true about his Fastball. Far below ML avg in movement. Meanwhile, some his other pitches appear to be top 10 or higher in relation to movement. Statcast shows him has having a 4seam Fastball. So considering how elite his spin rate is and the advantages of movement with a 2seam fastball, I wonder if he just simply dumped the harder throwing, but straight 4seam and moved to a 2seam slower but movement inducing? How would that work out with the rest of his variety of pitchers?

 

Also, his career thus far has been 62games with only 4 of them as Starter. So Percentage wise on his FB thrown vs other pitch types thrown may need to be considered a bit different when he'd throw more pitches 2nd and 3rd time through an order, vs less than 10 batters faced. His career 3rd time seeing a batting order is just 18PAs. His career seeing Batters a 2nd time is just 38PAs.

 

He'll be interesting to hope on, but seeing where he stood vs statcast makes me believe he may need more time to iron out his pitching approach. Pretty much the 4-seam fastball needs to be a 3rd offering pitch and not the primary offering. Thrown up in the zone.

[clancyphile]

I’m optimistic about Brewer pitching especially with the starters. The only player that doesn’t apply to is Burnes though. His fastball is straight as Taylor Jungmann and just as hittable if not more so. The double trouble for him is that he has to have the fastball to set up his formidable slider and he’s got to put it in the same plane as the slider, which is low, which means he’s gonna get pounded before he gets to the slider. He’s got to pitch up in the zone with the fastball which takes away from the effectiveness of the slider. Unfortunately for him he’s caught between a rock and a hard place. I’m counting on him like I counted on Jimmy Nelson last year. Hope I’m dead wrong because I can’t get that image of him striking out everyone in existence out of my head. Woodruff is a stud and I think he’ll be even more studdy this year.

 

I see via statcast, what you say is very true about his Fastball. Far below ML avg in movement. Meanwhile, some his other pitches appear to be top 10 or higher in relation to movement. Statcast shows him has having a 4seam Fastball. So considering how elite his spin rate is and the advantages of movement with a 2seam fastball, I wonder if he just simply dumped the harder throwing, but straight 4seam and moved to a 2seam slower but movement inducing? How would that work out with the rest of his variety of pitchers?

 

Also, his career thus far has been 62games with only 4 of them as Starter. So Percentage wise on his FB thrown vs other pitch types thrown may need to be considered a bit different when he'd throw more pitches 2nd and 3rd time through an order, vs less than 10 batters faced. His career 3rd time seeing a batting order is just 18PAs. His career seeing Batters a 2nd time is just 38PAs.

 

He'll be interesting to hope on, but seeing where he stood vs statcast makes me believe he may need more time to iron out his pitching approach. Pretty much the 4-seam fastball needs to be a 3rd offering pitch and not the primary offering. Thrown up in the zone.

 

I assume that the pitching lab is addressing the fastball issues, and how he should mix his pitches.

 

I think his best bet is adding a two-seam to go with the four-seam and slider. I don't know if Burnes also has a change-up, splitter, or curve to add to the mix, but if he has three pitches, he can work all of them.

 

A credible two-seam would make the four-seam better, even lower in the zone. If he also adds a change-up, that will mess up hitters' timing.

[TJseven7]

I think his best bet is adding a two-seam to go with the four-seam and slider. I don't know if Burnes also has a change-up, splitter, or curve to add to the mix, but if he has three pitches, he can work all of them.

 

A credible two-seam would make the four-seam better, even lower in the zone. If he also adds a change-up, that will mess up hitters' timing.

 

Has a splitter and a curve. They didn't do very well last year but he has them. He had an incredibly high 4 seam vs 2 seam ratio last year. The 2 seam was less than his curve and splitter.

[KeithStone53151]

Lets see Burnes win a rotation spot before we start dreaming about him being a top of the rotation guy.........

 

He won't get that chance. Anytime you can lock a guy into your rotation that throws 88 mph and has all below average MLB offerings at best...you have to do. So instead of an elite arm talent, say hello to Brett Anderson.

[wntrtxn21]

Lets see Burnes win a rotation spot before we start dreaming about him being a top of the rotation guy.........

 

He won't get that chance. Anytime you can lock a guy into your rotation that throws 88 mph and has all below average MLB offerings at best...you have to do. So instead of an elite arm talent, say hello to Brett Anderson.

 

Burnes has good speed and good stuff, but last year he got lit up fiercely. Having it and being able to use it are two different things. Pitching isn't all about speed. Greinke is still considered to be preeminent and he doesn't throw hard anymore. There are plenty of pitchers who don't throw hard and get the job done. Anderson is not in the upper half of starters, but I would take him 100 times over last year's version of Burnes. I'm positive IF Burnes shows he can pitch this year, CC has enough knowledge to put him in the rotation ahead of anybody but Woodruff.

[sveumrules]

Lets see Burnes win a rotation spot before we start dreaming about him being a top of the rotation guy.........

 

He won't get that chance. Anytime you can lock a guy into your rotation that throws 88 mph and has all below average MLB offerings at best...you have to do. So instead of an elite arm talent, say hello to Brett Anderson.

 

Anderson's average FB velocity in 2019 was 91.4 MPH on the 4-seam & 90.9 on the sinker.

 

His 4 seam fastball, cutter & change up all had positive pitch values in 2019.

 

He has almost 1,000 career innings with a 98 ERA-/95 FIP-.

 

Almost no team has the same 5 guys take every start all year, just because Brett Anderson is in the rotation to start the year does not mean that Corbin Burnes will never get an opportunity to start for the 2020 Brewers.

[Warning Track Power]

Lets see Burnes win a rotation spot before we start dreaming about him being a top of the rotation guy.........

 

He won't get that chance. Anytime you can lock a guy into your rotation that throws 88 mph and has all below average MLB offerings at best...you have to do. So instead of an elite arm talent, say hello to Brett Anderson.

I understand your point but I would like to see Burnes succeed in-season before giving him another shot at the rotation. When you see the term "sport psychologist" next to any player, I think on-field success is of the utmost importance. Give him the opportunity to succeed before putting him back into the rotation.

[Jenkins5]

I love Burnes and think it will be hard to find a bigger Burnes homer. Last year absolutely did not change my mind. He still was K’ing nearly 13 per 9 and had 3.37 xFIP. Homeruns literally killed him. In career never gave up over .9 HR per 9 but last year had an insane 3.12 per 9 last year.

 

To me I think he can still be the best homegrown arm since Sheets. Think overall stuff is better than Gallardo. Woodruff & Nelson in mix but I really believe in Burnes whole arsenal. He attacks hitters, usually commands all pitches well, and has the stuff factor. Guy whipped a 94 mph slider for strike three to end today. If he truly fixed what was wrong with his fastball, he could really be something for us. Still young and only 80 innings of mlb experience. Growing pains can happen.

 

I know many don’t share my hope and enthusiasm but just way I feel. One of the pitchers I really enjoy watching on this team every time he on mound. Sadly, I don’t think he makes rotation with them adding the three arms for staff and way Houser pitched. Not to mention how Peralta threw ball in winter. He will need dominant spring to force their hand.