Freddy Peralta - This year's Brandon Woodruff

[pacopete4]

Houser isn’t a starter. He’d be a great bullpen arm though. I really wish they’d realize that and make the move.

 

They don't realize it because it probably isn't true. He has a starters arsenal, his K rate and BB rate looked good deeper into games. He just gave up a couple more HR than you'd like which isn't a huge surprise when you are in the process of being stretched out. Nothing he has done suggests he is a RP at this point. You can make that case with Peralta if you ignore what he has done this offseason since Peralta actually has a RP arsenal, but Houser throws I think its 5 different pitches, no reason he can't be a starter.

 

People have just latched onto he is a RP because of like a 10 IP sample while being stretched out having a bad ERA. His xFIP as a starter last year was 3.71 and it was a 3.31 as a RP.

 

He also has a minor league career to look at. His numbers were no bueno down there and most likely will continue to be at the MLB level. I’d rather start the Anderson’s of the world and let Houser be an elite pen arm.

[Ennder]

His minor league record doesn't suggest elite pen arm either. He maintained the elevated K rates the second time he faced every level. His control has looked good. There is absolutely nothing at all that suggests Houser can't be a starter and would be an elite RP, nothing. The only info at all that suggests this is looking at just ERA and just at the 3rd time through the order last year when he was switching from being a RP to a starter. That just isn't the type of sample you can make this kind of suggestion from.

[LouisEly]

He also has a minor league career to look at. His numbers were no bueno down there.

He was also signed out of high school and was consistently 2-3 years younger than league average. He made the majors at the age of 22.

 

People have just latched onto he is a RP because of like a 10 IP sample while being stretched out having a bad ERA. His xFIP as a starter last year was 3.71 and it was a 3.31 as a RP.

Glad someone else realizes this.

 

1st half: 19 G, 5 GS, 42.2 IP, 1.453 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, .796 OPS-A

2nd half: 16 G, 13 GS, 68.2 IP, 1.107 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.89 K/BB, .656 OPS-A

 

And in his 3 relief appearances in the 2nd half he had a 3.60 ERA and gave up a home run, so it's not like they made his 2nd half numbers better.

[JohnBriggs12]

I personally am still betting more on Burnes, though the slider is the wild card for Peralta.

 

To me, for Burnes, he showed he had the repertoire to be a good pitcher, he just got unlucky and eaten alive allowing the ball to be hit in the air last year. That seems like something that could be fixed.

 

Peralta was destined to be a long/impact reliever unless he developed another pitch. That is a whole different endeavor that could work but is less likely, IMO. At least he is on step 1 of developing it.

 

I have more faith in Peralta myself. Burns has great velocity but when he leaves it it the middle of the plate, which he does too often, he gets blasted. I think Freddy has a little more deception in his delivery.

[DHonks]

I'm going on record to make the bold prediction that Freddy Peralta will be this year's Brandon Woodruff and go from assumed bullpen role to ending the 2020 season as the Brewers best starting pitcher.

 

At about this time last offseason, Brewer fans all assumed that Brandon Woodruff would be pitching out of the bullpen and that Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta would be Starting Rotation members going into 2019 season.

 

Really? I thought it was assumed by everyone that Woodruff was the most ready for the rotation given what he showed in 2018. It really seemed like something clicked and he learned how to attack the zone out of the pen.

 

To be honest, I think many fans thought Woodruff and Burnes were potential 1's or 2's in the making, the biggest difference in opinion was Peralta. Some saw him as a #3, some saw him as a 5, some as a reliever or AAA depth. Given that he's had success with one pitch, but rarely hits his spots, I need to see how good this new-found slider is. Last year's big shock was that Peralta went from 90-91 mph (in 2018) to 94-96 mph (in 2019).

[DHonks]

Houser isn’t a starter. He’d be a great bullpen arm though. I really wish they’d realize that and make the move.

 

They don't realize it because it probably isn't true. He has a starters arsenal, his K rate and BB rate looked good deeper into games. He just gave up a couple more HR than you'd like which isn't a huge surprise when you are in the process of being stretched out. Nothing he has done suggests he is a RP at this point. You can make that case with Peralta if you ignore what he has done this offseason since Peralta actually has a RP arsenal, but Houser throws I think its 5 different pitches, no reason he can't be a starter.

 

People have just latched onto he is a RP because of like a 10 IP sample while being stretched out having a bad ERA. His xFIP as a starter last year was 3.71 and it was a 3.31 as a RP.

 

He also has a minor league career to look at. His numbers were no bueno down there and most likely will continue to be at the MLB level. I’d rather start the Anderson’s of the world and let Houser be an elite pen arm.

 

Houser reached the majors at a young age and looked promising after we got him for Gomez. It's hard to evaluate anything in the injured-elbow years. I'm looking forward to him being a solid member of the rotation.

[TJseven7]

He also has a minor league career to look at. His numbers were no bueno down there.

He was also signed out of high school and was consistently 2-3 years younger than league average. He made the majors at the age of 22.

 

People have just latched onto he is a RP because of like a 10 IP sample while being stretched out having a bad ERA. His xFIP as a starter last year was 3.71 and it was a 3.31 as a RP.

Glad someone else realizes this.

 

1st half: 19 G, 5 GS, 42.2 IP, 1.453 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, .796 OPS-A

2nd half: 16 G, 13 GS, 68.2 IP, 1.107 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.89 K/BB, .656 OPS-A

 

And in his 3 relief appearances in the 2nd half he had a 3.60 ERA and gave up a home run, so it's not like they made his 2nd half numbers better.

 

So 1st 2nd 3rd time through samples are too small. His minors starting numbers, he was too young, so that's thrown out.

 

But 1h 2h samples in 2019 are fine? There's a lot more evidence on the RP side than the starter side. Part of that is that he has good stuff (FB dominant) but he wasn't a very good starter in the minors. Those guys are relievers in the majors. I mean the great pitch mix people are talking about is 67% FB (2 and 4) and that's the ONLY pitch that grades out positively.

 

PS making the majors for 2 innings is not what I'd call making the majors. Devin Williams made the majors more than that last year he wasn't basically avoided.

[sveumrules]

Houser MLB career: 8.9 K9 | 3.3 BB9 | 2.72 K/BB

Houser MiLB career: 8.1 K9 | 3.0 BB9 | 2.69 K/BB

 

For the two things he has the most control over, Adrian's results are remarkably similarly in the majors & minors.

 

Houser also has better K9/BB9 numbers as a starter (9.4/2.9) than as a reliever (8.3/3.7) in his limited MLB sample thus far.

[brooks_quichenick]

Adrian Houser has a starter’s arsenal, he deserves the opportunity. He really flashed some potential last year as well, I’m excited to see what he can do. Feel like he’ll end up being our 2nd best starter behind Woody.

[TJseven7]

Adrian Houser has a starter’s arsenal, he deserves the opportunity. He really flashed some potential last year as well, I’m excited to see what he can do. Feel like he’ll end up being our 2nd best starter behind Woody.

 

Again, 67% FB and nothing other than the FB graded positive. How is that a starters arsenal? You could ask Freddie to throw a bad cutter slider knuckle ball and he'd still be a 1.5 pitch guy that throws 3 other junk pitches.

[Lathund]

Houser MLB career: 8.9 K9 | 3.3 BB9 | 2.72 K/BB

Houser MiLB career: 8.1 K9 | 3.0 BB9 | 2.69 K/BB

 

For the two things he has the most control over, Adrian's results are remarkably similarly in the majors & minors.

 

Houser also has better K9/BB9 numbers as a starter (9.4/2.9) than as a reliever (8.3/3.7) in his limited MLB sample thus far.

 

Indeed. When dealing with small sample sizes, it's better to put ones trust in the stats that need the smallest samples to be reliable. Treating the 100 point difference in BABIP, or a 10% difference in HR/FB%, as meaningful in these tiny SP/RP splits doesn't make for a particularly solid analysis. Maybe we should also only ever use him at home, since his ERA was a full run better there in 2019 than on the road? No, to me everything suggests that Houser should be given opportunities to start until he proves that he can (or can't). The same small-sample splits were being used last year by posters on here as conclusive evidence that Woodruff wasn't a starter. Which is not to say Houser will do as well as Woodruff necessarily, just that nothing in the tiny sample sizes suggests he can't be a starter. Just like they didn't for Woodruff.

[Ennder]

Look nobody is saying Houser is a lock as a starter, but nothing in the sample we have right now suggests he should be moved to relief. It is like having Lindblom come out and pitch poorly in his first outing and asking for him to be released. That is seriously the sample you guys are going off of. His 3rd time through the order is a sample of 9 innings and that is what people are using here.

 

So far Houser was successful in the minors as a starter, has been successful in the majors as a starter and has an arsenal of pitches that suggests he should be able to turn over a lineup 3 times when it is all working. There just is no reason to not keep him as a starter until he does something to prove he shouldn't be. 9 innings spread out randomly over a full season while moving between the rotation and bullpen just isn't that sample.

[clancyphile]

 

Even if the slider doesn't propel him into the rotation, it arguably makes him a superb reliever.

 

Hader, Knebel, Suter, Peralta... that has the potential to be Nasty Boys 2020, and that doesn't count Phelps or the minor-leaguers like Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo.

 

Ahem...Frosty Boys, thankyouverymuch

 

Assuming Hader/Knebel/Suter/Peralta/Phelps/Claudio are joined by Rasmussen/Andrews/QTC/Barker/Perdomo...

 

Counsell's Eleven.

 

I still like Nasty Boys 2020, given the heat that Hader, Peralta, and Knebel can bring, especially if Perdomo joins the mix...

[clancyphile]

 

Even if the slider doesn't propel him into the rotation, it arguably makes him a superb reliever.

 

Hader, Knebel, Suter, Peralta... that has the potential to be Nasty Boys 2020, and that doesn't count Phelps or the minor-leaguers like Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo.

 

Ahem...Frosty Boys, thankyouverymuch

 

Assuming Hader/Knebel/Suter/Peralta/Phelps/Claudio are joined by Rasmussen/Andrews/QTC/Barker/Perdomo...

 

Counsell's Eleven.

 

I still like Nasty Boys 2020, given the heat that Hader, Peralta, and Knebel can bring, especially if Perdomo joins the mix...

[brewmann04]

I think Houser will be given every shot as a Starter and I agree Freddy will be the guy to watch for also a spot in the rotation.

[brewmann04]

I think Houser will be given every shot as a Starter and I agree Freddy will be the guy to watch for also a spot in the rotation.

[TJseven7]

Look nobody is saying Houser is a lock as a starter, but nothing in the sample we have right now suggests he should be moved to relief. It is like having Lindblom come out and pitch poorly in his first outing and asking for him to be released. That is seriously the sample you guys are going off of. His 3rd time through the order is a sample of 9 innings and that is what people are using here.

 

So far Houser was successful in the minors as a starter, has been successful in the majors as a starter and has an arsenal of pitches that suggests he should be able to turn over a lineup 3 times when it is all working. There just is no reason to not keep him as a starter until he does something to prove he shouldn't be. 9 innings spread out randomly over a full season while moving between the rotation and bullpen just isn't that sample.

 

He was over a 4 ERA at every minors level above A.

He was a 3.5 in fall ball. His 11 starts averaged 3.3 IP.

His numbers last year were dramatically better 1st time through 2nd time through and dramatically worse 3rd time through.

His number out of the pen were fantastic and lucky.

His numbers out of the pen or in short starts in the minors were stronger than his ERA as a Starter. Further throwing evidence on 1/2/3 time through.

In August he started 6 games and averaged a shade over 4 IP per start. He still allowed 4.5 ERA.

He throws his FB 67% of the time and its his only positive grading pitch.

 

How much evidence do you need? It's not 2019 sample size. It's a pattern. At every level.

 

He's good. But he's not a starter. Which makes him a reliever. It's not his 10 ip from 2019 making him a reliever. It's his talent.

[TJseven7]

Look nobody is saying Houser is a lock as a starter, but nothing in the sample we have right now suggests he should be moved to relief. It is like having Lindblom come out and pitch poorly in his first outing and asking for him to be released. That is seriously the sample you guys are going off of. His 3rd time through the order is a sample of 9 innings and that is what people are using here.

 

So far Houser was successful in the minors as a starter, has been successful in the majors as a starter and has an arsenal of pitches that suggests he should be able to turn over a lineup 3 times when it is all working. There just is no reason to not keep him as a starter until he does something to prove he shouldn't be. 9 innings spread out randomly over a full season while moving between the rotation and bullpen just isn't that sample.

 

He was over a 4 ERA at every minors level above A.

He was a 3.5 in fall ball. His 11 starts averaged 3.3 IP.

His numbers last year were dramatically better 1st time through 2nd time through and dramatically worse 3rd time through.

His number out of the pen were fantastic and lucky.

His numbers out of the pen or in short starts in the minors were stronger than his ERA as a Starter. Further throwing evidence on 1/2/3 time through.

In August he started 6 games and averaged a shade over 4 IP per start. He still allowed 4.5 ERA.

He throws his FB 67% of the time and its his only positive grading pitch.

 

How much evidence do you need? It's not 2019 sample size. It's a pattern. At every level.

 

He's good. But he's not a starter. Which makes him a reliever. It's not his 10 ip from 2019 making him a reliever. It's his talent.

[Ennder]

Again you are talking about a pitcher who was being moved from the bullpen to the rotation and back, pretty much nothing you said has any meaning to it. Of course his innings per start were low. ANyway not going to bother reading your posts anymore so we will just agree to disagree. You can't just look at the bad and always ignore anything good and that seems to be your habit.

[Ennder]

Again you are talking about a pitcher who was being moved from the bullpen to the rotation and back, pretty much nothing you said has any meaning to it. Of course his innings per start were low. ANyway not going to bother reading your posts anymore so we will just agree to disagree. You can't just look at the bad and always ignore anything good and that seems to be your habit.

[TJseven7]

Again you are talking about a pitcher who was being moved from the bullpen to the rotation and back, pretty much nothing you said has any meaning to it. Of course his innings per start were low. ANyway not going to bother reading your posts anymore so we will just agree to disagree. You can't just look at the bad and always ignore anything good and that seems to be your habit.

 

I look at reality. There's a big picture over time showing up from him in A+ to MLB and none of it points to starter. His pitch mix being a good FB 67% and 3 mediocre offerings doesn't point to starter.

 

It's like smoke is billowing out of the guy and your response is, that doesn't have any meaning. I don't have PROOF, but I got a ton of evidence that you don't have.

 

I look at reality. I don't ignore anything. It's a piece of the puzzle and its all weighted accordingly. There's nothing that says he's a starter in the MLB at this point other than MKE forcing him into the rotation when they had no other option. Let me tell you, its incredibly annoying to sit on a mountain of evidence and see someone spit on it, because "they're saying there's a chance."

 

Sit on small odds. Chase the river. Be my guest.

[TJseven7]

Again you are talking about a pitcher who was being moved from the bullpen to the rotation and back, pretty much nothing you said has any meaning to it. Of course his innings per start were low. ANyway not going to bother reading your posts anymore so we will just agree to disagree. You can't just look at the bad and always ignore anything good and that seems to be your habit.

 

I look at reality. There's a big picture over time showing up from him in A+ to MLB and none of it points to starter. His pitch mix being a good FB 67% and 3 mediocre offerings doesn't point to starter.

 

It's like smoke is billowing out of the guy and your response is, that doesn't have any meaning. I don't have PROOF, but I got a ton of evidence that you don't have.

 

I look at reality. I don't ignore anything. It's a piece of the puzzle and its all weighted accordingly. There's nothing that says he's a starter in the MLB at this point other than MKE forcing him into the rotation when they had no other option. Let me tell you, its incredibly annoying to sit on a mountain of evidence and see someone spit on it, because "they're saying there's a chance."

 

Sit on small odds. Chase the river. Be my guest.

[sveumrules]

He was over a 4 ERA at every minors level above A.

He was a 3.5 in fall ball. His 11 starts averaged 3.3 IP.

His numbers last year were dramatically better 1st time through 2nd time through and dramatically worse 3rd time through.

 

Minor league K/BB rates correlate much better to future MLB performance than minor league ERA. I'd give preference to K9, BB9, K/BB, age relative to league, batted ball profile & scouting reports before considering a guy's ERA.

 

I don't think anyone really pitches a ton of innings in fall ball. The highest average on Houser's team in 2015 averaged 4 1/3 IP per start.

 

Last year Adrian had 46 PAs third time through the order. His 127 career IP is far too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, much less 46 PAs.

 

I believe the team has him ahead of Burnes/Peralta in the 2020 rotation pecking order & deservedly so after last year.

[sveumrules]

He was over a 4 ERA at every minors level above A.

He was a 3.5 in fall ball. His 11 starts averaged 3.3 IP.

His numbers last year were dramatically better 1st time through 2nd time through and dramatically worse 3rd time through.

 

Minor league K/BB rates correlate much better to future MLB performance than minor league ERA. I'd give preference to K9, BB9, K/BB, age relative to league, batted ball profile & scouting reports before considering a guy's ERA.

 

I don't think anyone really pitches a ton of innings in fall ball. The highest average on Houser's team in 2015 averaged 4 1/3 IP per start.

 

Last year Adrian had 46 PAs third time through the order. His 127 career IP is far too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, much less 46 PAs.

 

I believe the team has him ahead of Burnes/Peralta in the 2020 rotation pecking order & deservedly so after last year.

[Lathund]

Again you are talking about a pitcher who was being moved from the bullpen to the rotation and back, pretty much nothing you said has any meaning to it. Of course his innings per start were low. ANyway not going to bother reading your posts anymore so we will just agree to disagree. You can't just look at the bad and always ignore anything good and that seems to be your habit.

 

I look at reality. There's a big picture over time showing up from him in A+ to MLB and none of it points to starter. His pitch mix being a good FB 67% and 3 mediocre offerings doesn't point to starter.

 

It's like smoke is billowing out of the guy and your response is, that doesn't have any meaning. I don't have PROOF, but I got a ton of evidence that you don't have.

 

I look at reality. I don't ignore anything. It's a piece of the puzzle and its all weighted accordingly. There's nothing that says he's a starter in the MLB at this point other than MKE forcing him into the rotation when they had no other option. Let me tell you, its incredibly annoying to sit on a mountain of evidence and see someone spit on it, because "they're saying there's a chance."

 

Sit on small odds. Chase the river. Be my guest.

 

He throws two drastically different fastballs (In terms of launch angle, exit velocity, whiff %, location), saying "a good FB 67%" doesn't really convey the picture. So I disagree with the premise, but even then I would say that if you throw "a" pitch 67% of the time that's not just good, but elite (Fangraphs pitch value has it as the 10th best fastball among pitchers with 100+ IP), the rest can be mediocre and you can still have starter stuff.

 

Your "mountain of evidence" includes looking at ERA from Colorado Springs, IP/start in the 2017 Arizona Fall League (Which, in addition to the short starts in general in the AFL pointed out above, was also 16 months after having Tommy John Surgery), using 46 PAs to categorically state he's much worse 3rd time through the order (And with how the Brewers use starters, the fact that he's equally good 2nd time through as 1st should be an argument for, not against, starting). You also point out August 2019 as an example of why he's not a starter, a month where he averaged 5 2/3 IP/start with a 2.54 ERA. Now clearly I know you actually meant September/October, but if you're cherry picking months then I'll take that same liberty. But let's look at September, where batters hit .220/.283/.352 against him. Something that wasn't BABIP-driven (.305), and where he put up the best SO/W ratio of any month. I'll take a .634 OPS against, with an 11.1 K/9 and 2.60 BB/9 any day from my starters. That it, in those 24 innings, happened to result in a (still better than league average) ERA of 4.44 shouldn't be the takeaway. Raw ERA with no regard for context or sample size isn't a good way to evaluate pitchers.