Freddy Peralta - This year's Brandon Woodruff

[A Swing and A Drive]

I'm going on record to make the bold prediction that Freddy Peralta will be this year's Brandon Woodruff and go from assumed bullpen role to ending the 2020 season as the Brewers best starting pitcher.

 

At about this time last offseason, Brewer fans all assumed that Brandon Woodruff would be pitching out of the bullpen and that Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta would be Starting Rotation members going into 2019 season.

 

Then this news was released...

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2019/02/28/counsell-says-freddy-peralta-corbin-burnes-brandon-woodruff-equal-footing-brewers/3009104002/

 

As you see, Woodruff was given a shot to make the rotation, which he did and ended 2019 as the Brewers best starter.

 

Fast forward a year and the Brewers have collected a handful of mediocre talent to fill in behind Woodruff in the rotation with the likes of Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer.

 

Then this news was released...

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2020/02/15/brewers-freddy-peralta-expects-big-things-after-adding-slider-mix/4760302002/

 

"Peralta started using his slider again to great success in the Dominican Winter League, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. "I knew that I could make the slider great, but not that fast," Peralta said. "I took two or three weeks during [Dominican Winter League] games, and when I saw those moments, down in the count or in 3-2 [counts] a lot of the time, 0-2 when you're behind in the count, I was like, 'Oh my God.' I can feel it like I feel the fastball. I can throw it whenever I want."

 

The Brewers encouraged Peralta to work on that pitch in the offseason. He pitched 20 innings in the Dominican regular season and playoffs and posted a 1.35 ERA with 34 strikeouts, allowing six hits and three walks. He's got an outside shot to win the fifth starter's job, but it's a good bet he'll pitch out of the bullpen as the long man if that doesn't work out."

 

As you see, Freddy P has his wicked slider back and if he can improve his command this season, I think he can beat these other rotation candidates out for a starting spot and I predict that he has a major breakout season that few saw coming.

[TURBO]

I hope you are right, but I am pegging Burnes as our new Woodruff this season.

 

Imagine if Burnes AND Peralta both take that next step during the same season?

[A Swing and A Drive]

I hope you are right, but I am pegging Burnes as our new Woodruff this season.

 

Imagine if Burnes AND Peralta both take that next step during the same season?

 

I agree that it's possible, but I think Burnes spends the bulk of 2020 starting at the AAA level getting himself back on track and that he will be the 2021 season's Freddy Peralta! lol

[KeithStone53151]

I've been on this for a bit too. I saw those reports during winter ball that he was throwing 4 distinct pitches, changeup and slider included. I would consider if weird if one of Burnes/Peralta didn't force their way into the opening day rotation. It's certainly possible both do. I would think Anderson and Houser are probably most likely to get bumped back to a bullpen role if one of those two young guys forces his way into the rotation.

 

A classic trademark of the Stearns era has been creating competition at positions. The only guys I would say that aren't competing for PT are Yelich, Hader, Woodruff. Literally everyone else is competing to some degree for playing time. Guys like Hiura, Cain, Smoak, Garcia, and Braun are probably very likely to get a ton of playing time and all but Hiura are locked into major league contracts(all significant except Smoak), but each one of those guys has a very obvious replacement and will lose PT very quickly if they don't produce. Bullpen is wide open except one slot. Left side of the infield is wide open. Only 1 rotation spot is truly locked in.

[tmwiese55]

I hope it's legit. I've said a number of times I hoped he added a change up due to his crazy delivery. But I'm happy with any 3rd pitch being added and hope for the best. If at least one of he and Burnes can live up to their potential in the rotation and the other as a good long reliever (think Burnes 2018, even if a level below that) that would be huge for the pitching staff.

 

Now, let's see if he and others throw more pitches this year. One of my complaints last year was a number of pitchers really only throwing 1-2 pitches when you knew they had more. Burnes included. Hader's resurgence started after he started throwing his slider again instead of FB only, things like that.

[KeithStone53151]

I hope it's legit. I've said a number of times I hoped he added a change up due to his crazy delivery. But I'm happy with any 3rd pitch being added and hope for the best. If at least one of he and Burnes can live up to their potential in the rotation and the other as a good long reliever (think Burnes 2018, even if a level below that) that would be huge for the pitching staff.

 

I don't mean to overly nitpick, but the changeup isn't a truly new pitch for him as the slider is. He threw the changeup around 2% of the time. So I would say technically it's moreso that the pitch isn't good versus the pitch is new like his slider. I completely agree with your general point that it would be awesome if his changeup was a point of emphasis and he could develop a QUALITY changeup.

[Thurston Fluff]

After "in the best shape of my life" "I added a new pitch" might be the most clique line in spring training.

[jjfanec]

This seasons ceiling seems to rest a lot on Peralta and Burnes. If even one of them takes a Woodruff like step forward we are in good shape, if both did then the season gets really exciting. We have the depth in the rotation in my mind, we just dont have the really high upside guys. Add that to Knebel, Hader, Suter and others in the bullpen things get fun. Now I thought the same thing last year and that did not happen and somehow the team still made the playoffs

[pacopete4]

After "in the best shape of my life" "I added a new pitch" might be the most clique line in spring training.

 

Swing change can be added as well.

[adambr2]

I still remember when Bill Hall's lasik eye surgery was supposed to be an absolute game changer.

[RobDeer 45]

After "in the best shape of my life" "I added a new pitch" might be the most clique line in spring training.

 

As soon as I saw the article, I thought to myself, wouldn't be spring training without a couple of these stories. I really do hope it sticks and is a good pitch for him, but I try not to get too hyped up.

[bill hAll Star]

I personally am still betting more on Burnes, though the slider is the wild card for Peralta.

 

To me, for Burnes, he showed he had the repertoire to be a good pitcher, he just got unlucky and eaten alive allowing the ball to be hit in the air last year. That seems like something that could be fixed.

 

Peralta was destined to be a long/impact reliever unless he developed another pitch. That is a whole different endeavor that could work but is less likely, IMO. At least he is on step 1 of developing it.

[RollieTime]

I personally am still betting more on Burnes, though the slider is the wild card for Peralta.

 

To me, for Burnes, he showed he had the repertoire to be a good pitcher, he just got unlucky and eaten alive allowing the ball to be hit in the air last year. That seems like something that could be fixed.

 

Peralta was destined to be a long/impact reliever unless he developed another pitch. That is a whole different endeavor that could work but is less likely, IMO. At least he is on step 1 of developing it.

 

Burnes has the repertoire to be a top of the rotation arm. I think last year was a mix of getting unlucky, but also getting shaky on the mental side of things when every mistake was hit 400 feet. He still had elite strikeout numbers and threw some pretty nasty pitches. Didn’t he strike out the first 8 or 9 batters of a game last season even though he only had 4 starts? He has the stuff. I too believe that our success this season on the pitching front will come down to Hader (obviously), Burnes, and Peralta.

[KeithStone53151]

I personally am still betting more on Burnes, though the slider is the wild card for Peralta.

 

To me, for Burnes, he showed he had the repertoire to be a good pitcher, he just got unlucky and eaten alive allowing the ball to be hit in the air last year. That seems like something that could be fixed.

 

Peralta was destined to be a long/impact reliever unless he developed another pitch. That is a whole different endeavor that could work but is less likely, IMO. At least he is on step 1 of developing it.

 

Burnes has the repertoire to be a top of the rotation arm. I think last year was a mix of getting unlucky, but also getting shaky on the mental side of things when every mistake was hit 400 feet. He still had elite strikeout numbers and threw some pretty nasty pitches. Didn’t he strike out the first 8 or 9 batters of a game last season even though he only had 4 starts? He has the stuff. I too believe that our success this season on the pitching front will come down to Hader (obviously), Burnes, and Peralta.

 

One thing Burnes specifically pointed to in an interview is his FB/slider sorta blended together too much. His FB has natural cutting action on it. And then he throws his slider so darn hard, it easy to see where the pitches blended together too much. Also I believe location was a big problem. Usually you can get away with poor location when your stuff is that nasty, but with the pitches blending clearly that didn't work out. Also a reminder his first 4 starts before being removed from the rotation were against Cards twice, Dodgers, Cubs. All 3 teams were hitting ridiculous the first month of the season. In relief, he had some good some bad results before getting sent down.

 

It sounded from his interview that they made a measurable change to his arsenal, though I didn't see exactly what. I would think a fairly easy change might be working in a 2 seam or sinker to go with the FB/slider. Better would be a vastly improved changeup, but regardless I would be shocked if he didn't do something measurable to keep his 2 best pitches from blending together so much.

[tmwiese55]

Burnes threw curves and changes in the minors so he was one I was referencing not being allowed to throw their whole arsenal. Granted, I'm sure those two pitches are weak so I got it when out of the pen. But as a starter you just have to throw them to keep guys off balance. I actually thought his curve looked fine, I mean not something to be 30% of his repertoire but toss up a get me over curve on the first pitch and they're probably just not swinging and you're up 0-1. Kind of like using it as a change up where the hitter doesn't see it coming so they just don't swing. Long story short, you're not gonna survive as a starter with two pitches unless you're absolutely elite like Sheets. You just have to throw them so they can't tee off on your fastballs

[clancyphile]

I personally am still betting more on Burnes, though the slider is the wild card for Peralta.

 

To me, for Burnes, he showed he had the repertoire to be a good pitcher, he just got unlucky and eaten alive allowing the ball to be hit in the air last year. That seems like something that could be fixed.

 

Peralta was destined to be a long/impact reliever unless he developed another pitch. That is a whole different endeavor that could work but is less likely, IMO. At least he is on step 1 of developing it.

 

Even if the slider doesn't propel him into the rotation, it arguably makes him a superb reliever.

 

Hader, Knebel, Suter, Peralta... that has the potential to be Nasty Boys 2020, and that doesn't count Phelps or the minor-leaguers like Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo.

[clancyphile]

I personally am still betting more on Burnes, though the slider is the wild card for Peralta.

 

To me, for Burnes, he showed he had the repertoire to be a good pitcher, he just got unlucky and eaten alive allowing the ball to be hit in the air last year. That seems like something that could be fixed.

 

Peralta was destined to be a long/impact reliever unless he developed another pitch. That is a whole different endeavor that could work but is less likely, IMO. At least he is on step 1 of developing it.

 

Burnes has the repertoire to be a top of the rotation arm. I think last year was a mix of getting unlucky, but also getting shaky on the mental side of things when every mistake was hit 400 feet. He still had elite strikeout numbers and threw some pretty nasty pitches. Didn’t he strike out the first 8 or 9 batters of a game last season even though he only had 4 starts? He has the stuff. I too believe that our success this season on the pitching front will come down to Hader (obviously), Burnes, and Peralta.

 

One thing Burnes specifically pointed to in an interview is his FB/slider sorta blended together too much. His FB has natural cutting action on it. And then he throws his slider so darn hard, it easy to see where the pitches blended together too much. Also I believe location was a big problem. Usually you can get away with poor location when your stuff is that nasty, but with the pitches blending clearly that didn't work out. Also a reminder his first 4 starts before being removed from the rotation were against Cards twice, Dodgers, Cubs. All 3 teams were hitting ridiculous the first month of the season. In relief, he had some good some bad results before getting sent down.

 

It sounded from his interview that they made a measurable change to his arsenal, though I didn't see exactly what. I would think a fairly easy change might be working in a 2 seam or sinker to go with the FB/slider. Better would be a vastly improved changeup, but regardless I would be shocked if he didn't do something measurable to keep his 2 best pitches from blending together so much.

 

I'm surprised they don't have pitchers throw both the 4-seam and the 2-seam.

 

Then again, I think the best mix for a starter would be 4-seam, 2-seam, splitter, slider, circle change.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm surprised they don't have pitchers throw both the 4-seam and the 2-seam.

 

Then again, I think the best mix for a starter would be 4-seam, 2-seam, splitter, slider, circle change.

 

For starters, the pitcher is the pitcher and he can more or less choose his arsenal. Obviously it's a collaborative decision as said pitcher wants to be successful, but he has the final say. I don't think any pitcher in baseball throws both a splitter and circle change. That seems weird. In reality I think you usually pick one and then throw a good curve...that would be an excellent arsenal of pitches.

[Lathund]

I'm surprised they don't have pitchers throw both the 4-seam and the 2-seam.

 

They do. Woodruff and Houser both throw both a lot of 4-seamers and 2-seamers. While there are probably multiple reasons that Woodruff had his breakout, him adding that elite 2-seamer and throwing it 23% of the time probably helped. Houser had perhaps the best sinker in the game, and perhaps should've seen even better results from it. A sinker was one of the pitches they tried with Burnes, but it was abandoned very early on it seems. So they're no strangers to using it. And I think they're smart enough to know when they should and shouldn't encourage it. For example it makes sense that someone like Woodruff who is a low spin rate pitcher focuses less on high 4-seamers, and swap some of them for sinkers. Using the high heat less as a pure swing-and-miss pitch, and more change eye level and keep the batter very uncomfortable and defensive.

[AKCheesehead]

 

Even if the slider doesn't propel him into the rotation, it arguably makes him a superb reliever.

 

Hader, Knebel, Suter, Peralta... that has the potential to be Nasty Boys 2020, and that doesn't count Phelps or the minor-leaguers like Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo.

 

Ahem...Frosty Boys, thankyouverymuch

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's always just been a matter of time with Freddy. Hopefully that time is now.

[Hammer]

Frosty or Frothyboys? #BeerMe

[OldHeidelberg]

I feel like Houser is probably where Peralta and Burnes were in spring training last year, he will have to really blow up in ST to not earn a rotation spot. He was a good prospect in his own right and obviously had a nice season last year. Actually to borrow from the OP he is probably more like Woodruff last year in that a lot people seem to think he would be better in the bullpen but the team has continued to develop him as a starter. Burnes probably has the most talent of the bunch but it's hard to forget last year. Still really excited about these young pitchers, hopefully just a bump in the road last season.

 

Frosty Boys LMAO

[pacopete4]

Houser isn’t a starter. He’d be a great bullpen arm though. I really wish they’d realize that and make the move.

[Ennder]

Houser isn’t a starter. He’d be a great bullpen arm though. I really wish they’d realize that and make the move.

 

They don't realize it because it probably isn't true. He has a starters arsenal, his K rate and BB rate looked good deeper into games. He just gave up a couple more HR than you'd like which isn't a huge surprise when you are in the process of being stretched out. Nothing he has done suggests he is a RP at this point. You can make that case with Peralta if you ignore what he has done this offseason since Peralta actually has a RP arsenal, but Houser throws I think its 5 different pitches, no reason he can't be a starter.

 

People have just latched onto he is a RP because of like a 10 IP sample while being stretched out having a bad ERA. His xFIP as a starter last year was 3.71 and it was a 3.31 as a RP.