What to do with Carlos?

[1992casey]

---

We could trade him this off season, but I wouldn't do it just to get rid of him -- only if the club felt a deal made us better. Losing a 30 HR guy is tough for this team - even if he's not the .900 OPS guy we'd like him to be.

---

Well said. The team's good enough now that it can weigh a single season as being at least as important as future seasons. I'm only against the options that cost a ton of money over a bunch of years.

[gregmag]

Is there a way to find the average decline in a players stats after changing leagues? If there is, look at it, then come back with an argument.

 

When you're the one who is arguing that something matters, it's your own responsibility to support what you're saying. The rest of us aren't just going to assume you're right, let alone take orders from you to go off and prove your point.

 

Greg.

[crash davis]

Although some may believe that this conversation is being beaten to death, I think that it is very interesting. It sums up a lot of the differences between the nu school, old school camps, while still being civil. However, a topic that has been glossed over during the last few pages of posts has prompted me to de-lurk.

 

Back on page 2, Casey posted the top 50 obp's of the top sluggers in the league. Lee is near the bottom, which contributes to his low OPS. However, my question is this- who can we get to replace Lee? I don't see any player in the top 30 on this list that the Brewers could reasonably want or get.

 

 

Here is the list, for those who don't want to scroll back five pages...

 

| Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP || 1 Todd Helton .445 | 17 Brian Roberts .387 | 33 Troy Glaus .363 || 2 Jason Giambi .440 | 18 Miguel Cabrera .385 | 34 Matt Holliday .361 || 3 Albert Pujols .430 | 19 Michael Young .385 | 35 Randy Winn .360 || 4 Alex Rodriguez .421 | 20 Jim Edmonds .385 | 36 Chad Tracy .359 || 5 Derrek Lee .418 | 21 Mark Teixeira .379 | 37 Cliff Floyd .358 || 6 Lance Berkman .411 | 22 Gary Sheffield .379 | 38 Aramis Ramirez .358 || 7 Travis Hafner .408 | 23 Jeff Kent .377 | 39 Miguel Tejada .349 || 8 Jason Bay .402 | 24 Chase Utley .376 | 40 Mike Sweeny .347 || 9 Carlos Delgado .399 | 25 Geoff Jenkins .375 | 41 Andruw Jones .347 || 10 David Ortiz .397 | 26 Paul Konerko .375 | 42 Bill Hall .342 || 11 Vlad Guerrero .394 | 27 Ken Griffey .369 | 43 Jermaine Dye .333 || 12 Pat Burrell .389 | 28 Richie Sexson .369 | 44 Carlos Lee .324 || 13 David Wright .388 | 29 Hideki Matsui .367 | 45 Jay Gibbons .317 || 14 Morgan Ensberg .388 | 30 Dave Dellucci .367 | 46 Jason Lane .316 || 15 Manny Ramirez .388 | 31 Jason Varitek .366 | 47 Jorge Cantu .311 || 16 Adam Dunn .387 | 32 Jhonny Peralta .366 | 48 Alfonso Soriano .309 |

 

 

Edit: Does someone know how to make the table appear like it does on page 2?

[backup catchers]

Other Lee faults:

 

BA

OBP

VORP

Defense

RBI/baserunner

 

Endaround maybe you could give me a little clarification on these supposed faults for Lee.

 

Since when is a carreer .284 average for a power hitter bad?

 

OBP is part of OPS so that is kind of like counting it twice if you use it along with OPS. In fact his low OBP is the main problem with his low OPS so you may want to use it instead of OPS as a critisim.

 

VORP I don't really like it (kind of gets overused as well IMO) but it certainly is valid one so I'm fine with you using it. That makes two faults low OBP and VORP.

 

Defense. He isn't Jenkins out there but he isn't Manny Ramirez either. It is a fault but in reality defense is fairly minor for a power hitting left fielder. Kind of like finding fault with Ben Sheets because he can't bunt very well. While true not really a big deal. To be honest in most cases I agree wtih you on defense though so I'll give you the point.

 

RBI/baserunning are very valid things to bring up. I just need a little clarification on how his rbi totals are a problem. Seems to me rbi and power are the two things defenders of him bring up all the time.

Baserunning wise I guess he must have made more baserunnig blunders than I remember because he stole more bases than I thought he could. Not to mention at a better rate than I thought he would given how many steals he had.

 

Lee supporters are the ones who dismiss all stats to focus on RBIs and to a lesser extent HRs. There is nothing out there that projects well for Lee going forward."

 

You can't dismiss all stats if you use rbi and HR after all they are stats. Just not ones you like or believe are viable.

But to be fair here are my reasons why I like him.

 

He produces when given the opportunity. As Rluz demonstrated he has had ample opportunity to drive in runs and he did.

 

Power. 30+ homeruns would seem to show he projects well for a couple more years.

 

Durability. While some have mentioned his size as a future problem there has been nothing to prove other than he can play everyday. I do wish he was in better shape but 30 isn't so old as to believe he will start to fall apart any day now. IF he was 35 or so I would be more worried.

He hits for average. Down year this year but his over all body of work shows he can hit 300 some years and certainly is a good bet to hit over .275.

 

He puts the ball in play. If someone wants to count low OBP we also have to look at how he helped add power without Jose Hernandez type of k's. For this particular team finding a right handed power bat was important. With a team history of strikouts another K prone slugger could have looked a lot like the Sexon, Jenkins, Burnitz, Hernandez bunch. We all know how that worked out.

 

Steals bases at a good clip. If I grant his below average defense as a negative I should be allowed to count this as well. Not a major factor one way or the other but as important as defense is for a leftfielder.

[rluzinski]

Seems to me rbi and power are the two things defenders of him bring up all the time.

 

His RBI's are a function of opportunity, his power and ability to make contact. They are a simply a result of his abilities, not an ability in itself.

 

His steals has to be the single most irrelevant thing anyone brings up about him. He had 13 steals and 4 caught stealing in 2005. For his career it's 77/30. The value of that is just about ZERO.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Vladimir Guerrero changed leagues, his OPS+ went up, and he won the MVP. Brian Giles went from Cleveland to Pittsburgh, and his OPS went from .856 to 1.032. Jim Edmonds put up the 5 best OPS of his life after switching leagues. Carlos Delgado bested his career OPS in his first year in Florida, at age 33 no less. Jose Guillen this year went from the AL to the NL, and his OPS+ went from 119 to 118.

 

If there is an effect in switching leagues, it's tiny, and far from universal.

[backup catchers]

His RBI's are a function of opportunity, his power and ability to make contact. They are a simply a result of his abilities, not an ability in itself.

 

I think you took "Seems to me rbi and power are the two things defenders of him bring up all the time." Out of context. It was in regard to endaround using rbi as a stat against Lee.

 

His RBI's are a function of opportunity, his power and ability to make contact. They are a simply a result of his abilities, not an ability in itself.

 

You have a point but are missing one important factor. He produced in those opportunities. I know you don't like rbi's and have put forth very good arguements for your distaste for them. Just like a leadoff guy, a middle of the order guy has a role. Driving in runs is that role so rbi are probably as useful as OPS in assessing if he was productive. Probably more useful than OBP. If you believe I counted that twice because it is covered by the other two I can see that though. Much like I believe OPS and OBP cover the same fault. So if that is what you mean I concede that point.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tired.gif

 

His steals has to be the single most irrelevant thing anyone brings up about him. He had 13 steals and 4 caught stealing in 2005. For his career it's 77/30. The value of that is just about ZERO.

 

I admitted as much. But, again it was as a counter arguement directed at using his defense as a negative. So to use it in context of the arguement I believe it to be valid.

[1992casey]

endaround was actually talking about RBI per baserunner as a possible knock against Lee.

 

I think I'm going to have to get a Baseball Prospectus subscription so I can sort their stats. It'd make it a lot simpler to see for myself! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[1992casey]

---

Edit: Does someone know how to make the table appear like it does on page 2?

---

Since you requested it, I'll repost it. I think there are actually some flaws in my approach, but I can't put my finger on them. The point was to illustrate that high SLG guys tend to be dangerous enough to carry high OBPs. (Carlos was 48th in SLG; only 4 of those 48 players had lower OBPs.) Another tack might be to look at high OBPs and note how many of them belong to power hitters; most of them seem to. Either way, Carlos would be excluded from the elite.

[u]| Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP |[/u]
| 1 Todd Helton .445 | 17 Brian Roberts .387 | 33 Troy Glaus .363 |
| 2 Jason Giambi .440 | 18 Miguel Cabrera .385 | 34 Matt Holliday .361 |
| 3 Albert Pujols .430 | 19 Michael Young .385 | 35 Randy Winn .360 |
| 4 Alex Rodriguez .421 | 20 Jim Edmonds .385 | 36 Chad Tracy .359 |
| 5 Derrek Lee .418 | 21 Mark Teixeira .379 | 37 Cliff Floyd .358 |
| 6 Lance Berkman .411 | 22 Gary Sheffield .379 | 38 Aramis Ramirez .358 |
| 7 Travis Hafner .408 | 23 Jeff Kent .377 | 39 Miguel Tejada .349 |
| 8 Jason Bay .402 | 24 Chase Utley .376 | 40 Mike Sweeny .347 |
| 9 Carlos Delgado .399 | 25 Geoff Jenkins .375 | 41 Andruw Jones .347 |
| 10 David Ortiz .397 | 26 Paul Konerko .375 | 42 Bill Hall .342 |
| 11 Vlad Guerrero .394 | 27 Ken Griffey .369 | 43 Jermaine Dye .333 |
| 12 Pat Burrell .389 | 28 Richie Sexson .369 | 44 Carlos Lee .324 |
| 13 David Wright .388 | 29 Hideki Matsui .367 | 45 Jay Gibbons .317 |
| 14 Morgan Ensberg .388 | 30 Dave Dellucci .367 | 46 Jason Lane .316 |
| 15 Manny Ramirez .388 | 31 Jason Varitek .366 | 47 Jorge Cantu .311 |
[u]| 16 Adam Dunn .387 | 32 Jhonny Peralta .366 | 48 Alfonso Soriano .309 |[/u]

It was very easy for me to grab the table because since I wrote the post, all I had to do is hit edit and snatch the code. Another user can do the same thing by viewing the page's source code, finding the table (between the

tags), and copying and pasting from there.

[Weirdos19]

Vlad Guerrero DH'd quite a bit that year because of back problems. And there will always be an exception to the rule.

 

My point is that guys need to adjust to a different league. It isn't as much of a difference as it used to be, but it does make a difference.

 

Greg,

 

I asked because I thought maybe somebody already knew if there was a stat site that has numbers like that. Don't jump down my throat because you disagree with me. No disrespect intended.

[Weirdos19]

The first year is almost always a down year.

[rluzinski]

I know you don't like rbi's and have put forth very good arguements for your distaste for them. Just like a leadoff guy, a middle of the order guy has a role. Driving in runs is that role so rbi are probably as useful as OPS in assessing if he was productive. Probably more useful than OBP. If you believe I counted that twice because it is covered by the other two I can see that though.

 

The thing is, I don't think players HAVE specfic roles. As I've said in this thread, the job of all players is to maximize runs scored for a team. Your #4 hitter doesn't HAVE to score all the runs and it certainly doesn't make sense to sacrifice OBP to have him do it. If about 25% of the Brewer's runs were scored by the #5 and #6 hitters in 2005, doesn't that illustrate the importance of maximizing RBI opportunities for them too?

 

To oversimply what I'm trying to say, Lee either scored the runners or he ended the inning. His low OBP indicates that he made ALOT of outs. The best sluggers hit alot of RBIs AND extend innings by not making outs. Lee isn't one of them.

[MoneyballMan]

I'm sorry if this was posted already (I didn't read the whole thread), but I think trading Lee FOR THE RIGHT DEAL needs to be considered. Projected VORP's:

 

Lee:

 

Year VORP

2005 25.7

2006 21.8

2007 19.7

2008 18.0

2009 11.1

 

Jenkins (just for comparison's sake):

 

 

Year VORP

2005 16.2

2006 16.8

2007 6.9

2008 3.6

2009 4.3

 

Corey Hart:

 

Year VORP

2005 6.5

2006 15.1

2007 17.2

2008 22.2

2009 24.6

 

Cruz:

 

Year VORP

2005 2.6

2006 4.5

2007 9.3

2008 11.1

2009 8.3

 

Eric Chavez (just for grins):

 

Year VORP

2005 47.9

2006 39.6

2007 34.2

2008 35.8

2009 30.8

 

Mr. Beane is going to ask for A LOT in addition to Lee for Chavez...... But that doesn't mean there's not an offer that Melvin shouldn't consider from someone.

[endaround]

Doing straight VORP comparisions of those players, especially Cruz and Hart, will be difficult unless you also give projected PAs. My guess Cruz is projected to have less than 200 PAs in each season and Jenkins is projected to miss half seasons all over the place.

[DougJones43]

due to the amount of RBI opportunities for the #5 hitter, and subsequent relatively low amount of runs driven in after (due to the lower order hitters not being as productive), wouldn't it make much more sense to bat a low OBP guy like carlos lee #5 rather than #4? it seems like his low OBP would hurt the possible creation of runs more at #4 than at #5. right now, it hurts the team that he doesn't get on base very much because it leaves jenkins with less runners to drive in.

 

i know in 2005 season we had to split up the lefties, but next year wouldn't this top 5 in the lineup make sense?

1. clark

2. hardy

3. weeks

4. jenkins

5. lee

 

wouldn't lee's low OBP be less harmful in the #5 spot, where he can still drive in runners, but not cost us as many potential future runs?

[SoCalBrewfan]

moneyballman, what's your source for those projections?

[Weirdos19]

Much rather see this:

 

Brady

JJ

Jenks

Lee

Fielder

Weeks

Hall

Miller

[backup catchers]

The thing is, I don't think players HAVE specfic roles.

 

I bet Yost and Melvin don't agree. The 8 hole guy's role is to get on base when nobodys on base so the pitcher gets up that inning but changes when there is a guy in scoring position. Then he is supposed to drive him in, not walk. That will maximize runs scored not letting the hitter bat him in after he walked.

Brady Clark's role was not the same as Lee's. Clarks role was to get on base so the middle of the order could bat them in. Jenkins and Lee are supposed to drive in runs. Those roles came about because each hitter has differant strengths.

 

I've said in this thread, the job of all players is to maximize runs scored for a team.

 

Agreed the way to do that is put each player in a role he is best at. Otherwise why does it matter if Lee hits fourth and Clark hits ahead of him? Why not have Lee leadoff and Clark bat 4th? According to you it shouldn't matter.

 

Your #4 hitter doesn't HAVE to score all the runs and it certainly doesn't make sense to sacrifice OBP to have him do it.

 

If your 4th batter has a better chance to get a base hit to drive in a run than your fifth does it make sense for him to take a walk? The better hitters have to work for a hit, not just get on base and let the next guy, who has a greater chance of failure, try. That is how you maximize run production. It's just not as easy as higher obp for a particular player=more runs scored. That may be true for a team not necessarily individuals.

 

 

If about 25% of the Brewer's runs were scored by the #5 and #6 hitters in 2005, doesn't that illustrate the importance of maximizing RBI opportunities for them too?

 

Only if they are as good a hitter as #4. When Lee drove in most of his runs (first half) they had a relatively poor hitter behind him. Jenkins as you recall was really bad. Some of the other guys they tried with the exception of Overbay just were not as good a hitter as Lee. In the first half last season I would rather have seen Lee try to score runners himself than take a walk and let Miller or 3TO do it.

 

Just a hypothetical here but what if the manager felt the same way? Thus he had Lee working for a hit not just a walk. His OBP suffered but the overall team production was better.

[endaround]

Given that they were better hitters than Lee, yes it does matter. And given Lee scuffled when the better hitter was behind him that makes little sense that the manager would ask Lee to do more. Lee's OBP was bad because he has never walked that much throughout his career and he hit for a terrible average this season.

[rluzinski]

My point is simply that the #4 hitter typically HAS 1 or 2 good players after him, therefore the notion that his OBP isn't as important is hogwash to me. Check any team's RBIs in the #5 and #6 slot. You'll see that those guys score a large percentage of a team's runs. The #4 spot is hardly the last chance to score these guys.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Maybe I'm just in a nasty mood because of all the "We're #1...how's YOUR team?" rhetoric around here this morning, but I'm really bored with this thread. Russ, end and Casey aren't wrong, and neither am I, or backup, or anyone else, OK? We just don't agree.

 

Isn't today the day all free agents can begin to declare themselves? What are the dates for the Brewers Winter Caravan? Is Mark, Doug or Ned, Drew or Tom, hell, even Bill Michaels (!) doing another Q&A on the web somewhere? Isn't there anything else fresh to discuss besides this subject? Anyone? Please! Help!

[1992casey]

I knew we were reaching that point when I re-posted the chart I had used on page two, but I did it because the request came in the context of a very good message.

 

I'm not sure what's the lesser of two evils:

• The current thread persists and people keep adding to it.
• A similar eight page thread pops up in a few days.

It's possible, Geno, that people just like to see your responses! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif They're always well worth reading.

 

In all seriousness, though, this thread hasn't sunk to the level of discourse that we saw in some of the Hardy, Hall, Branyan, and Magruder threads a few weeks ago.

 

Since we're playing nice, my suggestion would be to keep this thread open. When it drops off the first page, move it to Statistical Analysis. And if a new similar thread pops up in the near future, a moderator can lock it and direct people to this thread over there.

[brettac1]

moneyballman, what's your source for those projections?

 

I'm just guessing, but I think they're from their PECOTA cards at Baseball Prospectus.

 

another Q&A on the web somewhere?

 

Joe Sheehan's doing a chat on Baseball Prospectus in roughly a half hour. Link: baseballprospectus.com/ch...chatId=149

I know he's not your cup of tea (nor mine), but at least it's something.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Joe Sheehan's doing a chat on Baseball Prospectus in roughly a half hour. Link:

 

baseballprospectus.com/ch...chatId=149

 

I know he's not your cup of tea (nor mine), but at least it's something. "

 

brett:

 

I'm among those afflicted with the disease called "Aggressive Internet Cop Syndrome" (AICS), and can't access too many baseball websites here at work. Similar to the situation with prescription drugs, I do get decent stuff from Canada, as the Toronto Globe and Mail is pretty good, but other than that, nada.

 

Can someone excerpt for those of us suffering from AICS? Won't you give from the heart? Thanks...