What to do with Carlos?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"A middle of the order hitter like Lee has to be replaced with a middle of the order type hitter. You don't replace a threat like Lee by committee. Next year is probably to early for Prince to be that guy. Hart/Cruz just isn't the same for the middle of the order as Lee."

 

First of all, thanks, backup. Great stuff. I'd excerpt your whole mesage, but people can read.

 

Pessimist that I am, I would bet that Geoff Jenkins will get hurt for 20-30 games in '06 (maybe longer). He's just due...what do I know?

 

But say he does get hurt. Or Carlos. Or Clark. I don't expect all 3 to be there for 140-162 games next year. That will open up an opportunity for CruzHart. And perhaps for 20 games or so, we can begin to see if any kind of MLB talent emerges from either of these 2.

 

Or, we can create PT for CruzHart by resting Brady/Geoff/Carlos more often. Thursday getaway games after a Wednesday night games? Definitely. Sunday afternoon games after Saturday night losses started by Obermueller? Oh yeah.

 

I think it may be wise to avoid opening our starting 3 OFs to more injuries (if all are healthy) by playing Clark 130, Lee and Jenkins 140 apiece. That's 70 starts for CruzHart (or KrynzelHart?) to allow them to get their spikes wet. Ya think?

 

"So keep Lee for next year and see what happens. "

 

What if we get CruzHart those 70 starts somehow and they both stink, Clark declines, or Jenkins get hurt again? Then I feel you should keep Carlos for another 3 years beyond 2006, when he'll finish THAT contract at the ripe old age of 33. Hell, we signed Damian Miller, whose knees are subject to catching the last decade-plus, at age 36! So what's the harm in having Lee/Jenkins/Hart or Lee/Clark/Cruz, Lee/Hart/Gwynn (!) or even Lee/Jenkins/Clark or whatever combo you employ, for a few more years, especially if these nuggets fail? At least Lee is always healthy and is as consistent as they come. Let's nail down at least ONE outfield position as Prince, Rickie and Braun emerge.

 

But then again, that's just my 1/2ast opinion...

[DHonks]

rluzinski, so you're saying that Weeks was worse than Spivey? Off the top of my head, there are about 4-5 wins in late June/early July when he almost single-handedly got us wins. Just as Lee, Branyan, and Clark carried us to many wins in April/May, Weeks hit several go ahead/game tying homers in about a 2 week stretch.

 

It's one of those irregularities. His homers often were clutch, even though there is no such thing as clutchness. His homers happened to come at the right time. There's something to be said about when something occurs. For instance, looking at Jenkins' numbers in 2003 and '04, he typically did very little for the team offensively until August. This year, however, he turned it on around the all-star break. For the first time in several years he made a meaningful contribution to the team. However, stats like OPS and the others you cited don't take into account that his seasons those years became successful because of a handful of games after the team had practically given up. This year Geoff was huge for the team in the second half...as much (if not moreso) than Lee, Branyan, and Clark in the first half.

[endaround]

Lets tell a story!

 

There was once a baseball team with two veteran players, Player L and Player O. Now they just finished a season where they hit the following:

 

Player L: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .265 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .327 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .487 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .814

 

Player O: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .276 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .367 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .449 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .816

 

Now both players were due for raises! However Player L was more established and so he will earn more, in fact he'll earn $8.5 million. Now Player O isn't going to do too bad he'll probably get $2-$3 million. But GM M has a dilemma! His boss Mr. A gave him a very strict budget and to make his team better he has to scrimp and save as best as he can. Now it just so happens that there are two minor league players who could replace Player L and Player O! So let's introduce Player H who could replace Player L and Player F who could replace Player O! How did they hit in AAA?

 

Player H: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .308 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .378 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .537 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .916

 

Player F: .289 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .379 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .559 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .937

 

Fairly similar, huh? Especailly when you consider that Player H is very fast and fairly good on defense (best of teh four players in our story).

 

But something is really strange about the fans of our baseball team! They seem more than willing to dump Player O for Player F but blanche at having Player H come in for Player L!

[endaround]

DHonks, Weeks was worse than Spivey if by Spivey you mean the healthy 2004 version. But since Spivey only had 263 PAs in 2004, Weeks ended up contributing about as much.

[7rebmun]

Great story. Can Player O play LF?

[gregmag]

I respectfully suggest that folks who like the idea of locking up Lee for three or four years after this one read SoCal's post above very attentively. Nobody can know the future, but you can predict the future with a reasonable degree of accuracy if you have salient facts. SoCal laid out some very salient facts.

 

Like others have said, I'm not itching to trade Lee this offseason. I wouldn't say no to an offer that made the team better (I imagine none of us would), but the status quo is fine for the moment. As I think DougJones said, the '06 break is the critical point of decision, in part because by then we should have a better sense of what Hart and Cruz will contribute.

 

Greg.

[augie46]

Carlos is the youngest of our starting outfielders and is only 4 years older than Cruz. Because of Nelson's age I am a little worried that his stats were aided by his maturity. I am sure that is why Beane was willing to let him go. He may end up being an Alex Ochoa type of player in terms of productivity. I don't figure him into the longterm plans as a fulltime player just yet. I don't think we are going to see as many significant changes for 2006 as we have had the last couple of seasons. If we are contending in July I think that Carlos will be extended, if we are floundering he will be traded to free up $ for future moves.

[rluzinski]

... and like I've said, I think Lee is a good player and worth keeping around. Now if a team, based on his HRs and RBIs, thinks he's a GREAT player, I would have no trouble getting a GREAT return for him. Otherwise, just let him walk after 2006.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"But something is really strange about the fans of our baseball team! They seem more than willing to dump Player O for Player F but blanche at having Player H come in for Player L! "

 

Nothing strange about it, end.

 

Fans like me are looking at year after year after year of consistency in Player L, and blanche at the thought of losing that, and replacing that production with a much-less heralded nugget in Player H.

 

On the other hand, one year, Player O is hitting .301, leading the planet in doubles, and genuinely giving Brewer fans reasons to either keep him (or, in one ludicrous case, move him to the outfield! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif ). Then, the next season, Player O drops 25 BA points, hits 19 less doubles, drops 47 OPS points, and drives in 15 less runs.

 

Add to that the fact that Player O is being pushed by arguably the #1 slugging prospect in baseball, a 1st rounder with much more potential than Player H, and our mindset (one you don't have to share, but SHOULD accept) makes that much more sense.

[MNBrew]

Because I'm not overly into deep-level stats, I tend to see some things simplistically. Thus....

 

- I wonder if there would be quite so much discussion if Carlos Lee had put up the same HR & RBI numbers but matched his career BA (.288 coming into '05). But his BA was low, and consquently his OBP & OPS were lower, and he left open lots of room for hard-core fans to question his true worth.

 

- I think the switching leagues thing factored into his lower BA more than we thought (though not his 2nd half dropoff). I'll cut him a little more slack as far as keeping him past next year (vs. trading him sooner for other needed assets) until he shows if in the 2nd NL year he can make the adjustment.

 

- end, you suggest he's a $5-6M player. I don't quite see how. Someone Lee's age, with Lee's track record, on the free agent market, w/30+ HRs & 110+ RBIs in his contract year, will pull down $9-12M on the FA market. The guys with those numbers making $5-6M likely won't be making that little on their next contract unless they're pre-arby. Since Lee has the service time, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

 

- I love Hart & Cruz as potential big leaguers -- more corner OF promise than we've had to get excited about for many years. I hope they can duplicate their minor league success. But unlike Fielder, who hit pretty well in limited ML duty w/ lots of pinch-hitting, they seem to have a little more to grow before the Melvin & Co. are ready to just hand a spot over to one or both. I hope that time comes, but I have a feeling they'd be more likely to be taking the spot of someone more chronically inconsistent (Jenkins) than Lee.

 

- One last question: Russ, I liked your team-by-team LF stats chart. In research, it takes being outside 2 St. Dev.'s to be "statistically significant," which would seem to constitute "very best in baseball" status. In most cases Lee was just over 1 St. Dev. above the mean. In simple terms, I take that to mean he's clearly above average, but not necessarily elite. Is that what you were trying to show?

 

Geez, this is what it's like to have a decent number of respectable ML players AND reasonably good minor league prospects again! It's been since the late '80s and early '90s that we've had that in BrewTown!

[endaround]

That year to year consitency of dropping 35 points in BA? The drop of 80 points of OPS?

[pogokat]

Geno!

 

one little thing, because I'm in a hurry..

 

Hart is no nugget...he's been a top ten prospect for the brewers for 3 years now...He dominated AAA this year and he's 8 years younger than Carlos...that makes him a very good prospect...in fact he's very similar to Geoff Jenkins...Who has been a very good major league baseball player

 

I never said ditch Carlos right now...I'm simply stating (restating) that he is a bad long term investment...and if the scenario where Clark stinks and jenkins gets hurt occurs, it won't really matter who is in left because the brewers will be in really big problems...

 

Thanks for the discussion though...this place wouldn't be (ab)normal without you!http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/nerd.gif

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"That year to year consitency of dropping 35 points in BA? The drop of 80 points of OPS? "

 

To be fair, why not factor in more categories than just the ones Lee fell short on? What about the HRs, RBIs and SBs, which remained near the same levels as they've been since 2000?

 

Sure, I'll grant you that Carlos's OPS and BA dropped after moving to a more pitching-oriented league for the first time in his career, but what kind of consistency has O shown so far? None, and I'm angry because 2005 did major damage to his trade value. Makes it much harder for DM to get fair value for him now.

 

C'mon Doug, pull another rabbit out of your 'stache!

[DHonks]

thanks for the table rluz. I think Lee's value depends on what the team is looking for. For instance, the Brewers need a slugger, preferably RH, and someone whose sole job is to drive in runs.

 

next year's roster is interesting, as we could go a number of ways. I'll post all of my ideas in the trade forum.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I'll post all of my ideas in the trade forum. "

 

You mean there's a Trade Forum? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

"Thanks for the discussion though...this place wouldn't be (ab)normal without you! "

 

Same here, m'friend. Hell, now that I know there's this thing called a Trade Forum, I just may do a little exploring tonight at home, since a) the wife's not working tonight, and b) our new Dell desktop is up and running.

 

Although, I tried logging in yesterday, and was informned there were cookie-ing issues given my new IP address...Anyone? Anyone?

[Invader3K]

Why does everyone on this board keep acting like a guy who is not even 30 years old is probably never going to have a good year again? It's as if every time a player hits 29, according to quite a few people on this board, the Brewers should trade him immediately. Where does the re-building end??? Last I checked, there have been more than a few MLB players who have had quite successful careers past the age of 30, and they weren't all being paid A-Rod type salaries...

[SoCalBrewfan]

The options, as I see 'em:

 

1. Deal Lee this offseason.

1A. Deal Lee, acquire veteran LF, evaluate Hart and Cruz in AAA/4th OF.

1B. Deal Lee, give Hart or Cruz the job outright.

1C. Deal Lee, put Hart or Cruz in a job share with veteran lefty bat.

 

2. Keep Lee but do not extend contract, evaluate Hart and Cruz.

2A. Keep Lee, use Cruz/Hart as 4th OF, plan to deal Lee in July.

2B. Keep Lee for '06, plan to let him go via free agency.

2C. Keep Lee, decide later on his future status, resign or deal as needed.

 

3. Extend Lee now, trade Jenkins, Hart, and/or Cruz.

 

I think many of those who talk about Lee as a risk are warning of the dangers of option 3...that will likely take 3 years beyond 06, for upwards of $25M? The odds are good that you're holding the bag for a bad year at the end of the contract, if not two....and remember that defense counts, too...often players lose defensive value before they stop hitting. I think you probably deal an OF then, presumably dealing a prospect to get a veteran pitcher, 3b, or catcher.

 

But of course options 1 and 2 carry some risk as well. Dealing Lee now ensures that you get something for him while his value remains high, but leaves you vulnerable to a poor showing by his replacement, especially if it's a rookie learning on the job. Is Lee worth more than Hart / Cruz + whatever you trade Lee for + $7.5M? Depends on the deal of course. If you go that way, it would be smart IMO to get a good lefty power bat as a 4th OF, to cover for possible shortcomings of your rookie.

 

Going into the season with Lee covers you for next year, but only postpones this discussion until next season...you may, at that time, have more information about Hart or Cruz, but opportunities were limited in the Milwaukee OF in '05 and 2006 could be much of the same. My guess is that you almost certainly get less for Lee in July than you do in February, and you may well have to pay more to extend him at that point.

 

So, Geno, which option are you advocating? Sounds like 3 to me, or maybe 2C.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Why does everyone on this board keep acting like a guy who is not even 30 years old is probably never going to have a good year again? It's as if every time a player hits 29, according to quite a few people on this board, the Brewers should trade him immediately.

 

I don't see 'everyone' saying that...I'm not sure anyone at all has said anything close to 'never going to have a good year again.' The discussion I see describes Lee as productive this year, and as a good bet to be next year...but some (including myself) question how much and how fast he will decline. That's an important factor as you decide whether it makes sense to commit to a multi-year contract extension, particularly given the tight budgetary constraints Milwaukee faces.

 

I think Ron Wolf said that it's better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late. (Someone else may have said it first.) Given that Milwaukee has young corner OF options, who will be paid much less than Lee, they have to at least consider trading Lee if they get a good offer. That doesn't mean dump him no matter what...it means he's not untouchable.

 

Does anyone really think Carlos Lee is one of the Brewers' untouchable players at this point?

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

---

For instance, looking at Jenkins' numbers in 2003 and '04, he typically did very little for the team offensively until August.

---

 

Jenkins was hurt in August of 2003. He hit pretty well all year that season, hitting .275 and 20 HRs before the break. He hit .360 and 7 HR in August to surge his OBP and BA stats.

[lithium75]

I have read through the posts, well, I pretty much got the points of the posts on this thread. Here's my opinion. I have been trying to make the point since a month left in the season that Lee could use to lose some weight, and finally one other poster took note. Way back when on this thread, bat04 also mentioned it, but like me, no one even took it into consideration. Heres my stance on Lee.

 

I feel that taking his stats as a whole for the season is a problematic way to judge his season. He started off cool, heated up, then went cold, eventually turning into a slap hitter.

 

This can be explained by the fact that players often have trouble when switching leagues. It is tougherr to face a pitcher for the foirst time than facing a pitcher which you have 10-20 at bats against. Even in Lee's cool start, he struggled against career National Leaguers, and had success against pitchers he had faced in the American league. Once he got adjusted to the National league he got hot.

 

After the all star break, he started to fade. Remember how tired he looked at the end of the Home Run Derby? After that, he started to slow down. By the last month, he was jogging to first base on grounders and pop ups. He was unable to drive the ball. For the last three weeks of the year, all he could to is hit soft liners to right. He just looked flat tired.

 

What can we do about this? He is on the payroll for next year. Tell him that if he doesn't cut weight, he will be dealt. If he shows up in camp at 240 lbs, we trade him at the all star break. If he cuts the weight, we look to sign him to an extension.

 

What are the benefits of doing this? Presumably, he has made the adjustment to the National League. He should come in next year and hit right away. Hopefully he will start out hot. If he is still at 240, we can expect him to get tired after the break. With his hot start (I hope) he will increase his trade value. When we trade him at the break, we can expect to get more value. By then, we should know more if Cruz or Hart are ready. If he is still as heavy as he is, we won't be losing much in the second half anyway, so we will maximize Lee's time with us.

 

If he does cut down to 215-220 lbs next year, we sign him to a 3 year $24-$27 million contract. Hopefully by dropping some weight and getting in better shape, he will keep hitting into the second half. Also having Cruz and Hart to give him a day or two off will help keep him fresh throughout the next year.

 

If, as I expect, he comes out slugging right away next year, it is good either way, whether we keep him or trade him. If we can get him into good enough shape to make it through a whole year without burning out, he will be worth extending. I would leave it totally up to Carlos to lose the weight and stay if he wants to. If he doesn't, he will be shipped out.

[1992casey]

---

I think Ron Wolf said that it's better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.

---

Branch Rickey said it (in the 1940s, I believe).

[rluzinski]

I think Lee's value depends on what the team is looking for. For instance, the Brewers need a slugger, preferably RH, and someone whose sole job is to drive in runs.

 

I've said if before and I'll say it again. The job of EVERY offense player is to maximize runs scored for the whole TEAM, not just individual RBIs. People here talk like the inning is over after Lee bats. 173 of the 726 total runs were scored by the #5 and #6 Brewer hitters; that's almost 25% of all the runs! Yet I'm supposed to ignore Lee's or any "run producer's" OBP because that's not his job? Please.

 

end, you suggest he's a $5-6M player. I don't quite see how. Someone Lee's age, with Lee's track record, on the free agent market, w/30+ HRs & 110+ RBIs in his contract year, will pull down $9-12M on the FA market.

 

That's the point; end doesn't think he's worth that much and I agree.

[1992casey]

---

Why does everyone on this board keep acting like a guy who is not even 30 years old is probably never going to have a good year again? It's as if every time a player hits 29, according to quite a few people on this board, the Brewers should trade him immediately. Where does the re-building end??? Last I checked, there have been more than a few MLB players who have had quite successful careers past the age of 30, and they weren't all being paid A-Rod type salaries...

---

That's quite a broad generalization, but people are concerned because of information including, but not limited to:

• Peak ages for hitters
• The Science of Forecasting
• The Effects of Age on Hitting
• What is a Normal Career Trajectory?
• Age and Batting Performance in MLB (Part 1 of 3)
• Age and Batting Performance Continued (Part 2 of 3)
• More on Age and Batting Performance (Part 3 of 3)
• Age and Established Win Shares
• Is Sosa Finished?
• Cleveland's contracts could backfire

Additionally, here's the Bill James axiom, summarizing the conclusions drawn or mentioned in the most or all of the articles above:

Both hitters and pitchers peak at age 27 and decline more quickly than is commonly thought. This should impact how players are scouted, developed, and paid. For example, many players by the time they reach free agency are already past their peak performance and so can be expected to decline.

And here's a cool graph:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/2659_02.gif

 

And a comparison of Carlos to similar players:

 

Carlos Lee age-based similar players, beginning at age 30 through the end of their careers or through last year.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding the turning 30 and becoming an old fart thing. Just for fun, I grabbed the names of players from 3 years ago (2002 season), who had 100 RBI or more (why RBI - just used it since it's been discussed a lot lately - no other reason. You could do this with any metric).

 

Since we're talking about offering Carlos a contract starting in 2007, when he'll end the season at 31, I figured I'd include only players near his age as a comparison (players who were 29-33 in 2002). Here it is:

 

29 Nomar Garciaparra

29 Shawn Green

29 Todd Helton

30 Garret Anderson

30 Carlos Delgado

30 Manny Ramirez

30 Raul Ibanez

30 Chipper Jones

31 Jason Giambi

31 Brian Giles

32 Jim Thome

33 Sammy Sosa

33 Bret Boone

 

It's only 13 guys, so it's not really scientific, but I think the thing that this sample shows is that very few of these guys are better now (in 2005), than they were in 2002. Injuries are all too common of a theme - even for younger folks on the list. Probably 1/2 of the guys have missed significant time due to injuries. Perhaps that's not very different than guys age 25-28 - don't know.

 

The most scary thing about this group is that only a handful of these guys have never gotten through their contracts without that 'overpaid and looking to dump' talk associated with older, fading guys.

 

Also, most of these guys are suffering from diminished fielding skills. Even gold glovers, like Chipper, are far less capable defenders than they used to be.

 

Important note: most of the players - with the exception of the oldest guys - are still serviceable players. Some are great - like Manny and Delgado. But most aren't better or as good.

 

I'm not sold on moving Carlos or whatever. This isn't a ploy to try and convince others it's a good idea to rid ourselves of him. But, adding three years - 2007-2009 - seems a bit risky. I guess it's all in the money and years.

 

The key is probably what the club feels about Hart and Cruz. Like with Hardy, they just felt he could do the job. Do they feel that way about Hart or Cruz? Sometimes that pays off to take that risk. If they feel Hart can replace him with a .800 OPS or whatever, and they get a good trade for Carlos, they'll probably move him. If they're not sold on Hart or Cruz, it's probably best to keep Carlos, let the season go, have the young guys get some PT, and see how they develop. Injuries to Jenks or Clark or Carlos might make the point moot.

[1992casey]

What the heck, Jeff Cirillo fits right into reillymcshane's list.

 Year Ag Tm Lg PA OPS+
+-----+-----+-----+-----+
1994 24 MIL AL 139 74
1995 25 MIL AL 384 105
1996 26 MIL AL 643 120
1997 27 MIL AL 661 106
1998 28 MIL NL 694 122
1999 29 MIL NL 697 118
2000 30 COL NL 684 96
2001 31 COL NL 586 98
2002 32 SEA AL 547 74
2003 33 SEA AL 293 50
2004 34 SDP NL 81 48
2005 35 MIL NL 219 110

It's worthy to note his age when he signed his big four year (2002-05) extension: July 12, 2000.