What to do with Carlos?

[pogokat]

No one is arguing that the trade shouldn't have been made last year...it was a great trade..

 

what we don't want is for Carlos Lee to be hobbling around in 2009 because the brewers still owe him 18 million...

 

I thought we were past this stage?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

""what we don't want is for Carlos Lee to be hobbling around in 2009 because the brewers still owe him 18 million..."

 

Me neither!

 

By the way, is that $18 mil per year, or for 2 years? Because there's a huge difference, and I think we can be nearly 100% confident that DM wouldn't commit $18,000,000 a year to anyone.

 

Despite that, given his solid health history, why should we expect CLee at age 33 to start hobbling around injured, often enough to make us worry? At age 36, 37...I'm right there with ya.

 

"I thought we were past this stage? "

 

Not when this thread still shows quotes like this:

 

"His stats this year indicate that he is replaceable..Yes, he hit 31 jacks, yes he had 100+ rbi's...but beyond that Carlos was pretty middle of the road...so, if he decline even 5% he will be a burden on the team.."

 

Try this, pogo:

 

HYPOTHETICALLY, take Carlos's 32 HRs, 114 RBIs and 13 steals, and build in a 5% decline. That's still 30 HRs, 108 RBIs and 12 SBs. He'd still lead the team in each category, and by a lot. Drop it by 10%: . Still the leader. 20%? STILL worthy of being paid the going rate for team HR/RBI leader.

 

You also noted that CLee's 2005 #s suggest he's replaceable. By whom? I've asked this twice before, and still haven't received a real counter-response: For $8,000,000 a year, who in the majors is available to us, who can hit 30+ HRs and drive in 110-120 runs, right now? I mentioned Berkman and Vernon Wells, to give everyone a head start, but their teams will wisely keep them.

 

When someone presents an answer to this, or, better yet, when guys here stop marginalizing Lee's accomplishments because he's not 100% perfect, then THAT'S when this stage of the discussion will end, but I wouldn't hold my breath...

[rluzinski]

Carlos always tends to stay healthy

 

This is certainly worth alot. Agreed.

 

he steals more bases than you'd expect

 

A handful o steals, many which are 3B, just isn't worth very much. Apparently you don't think CS are bad at all? He had 4 of them afterall. USing the 2:1 rule, that's 5 net steals. Not even worth mentioning.

 

he hits lots of homers

 

32 is nice, but it's not exceptional either.

 

and is consistently among the top 10-20 in the majors at driving in runs.

 

Geno, this is the HEART of your argument for Lee's being much better than average. He's a "run producer" you say. Did you LOOK at his RBI opportunities? While I don't always agree with your arguments they are almost always reasonable. You are proving to be very stubborn on your insistance that RBIs can be used as a good individual measure of hitting prowess.

 

Looking at all of MLB, Carlos Lee had the 7th most baserunners and the 4th most runners in scoring positon. Let's look at Jenkins and Overbay's RBI opportunities, relative to Lee's:

 Runners RISP Lee woulda had... C. Lee 483 252 --- Jenkins 388 199 98 Overbay 366 194 94 

Assuming Lee had hit the same of % of his base runners in, but only had as many base runners as Jenkins or Overbay, he wouldn't had even had 100 RBIs. Would you still have considered him a proven run producer then?

 

Lee is a nice hitter, no doubt. I was happy when they traded for him and I was happy when they picked up his option. I won't be happy if they sign him to a long term deal, however. He's not talented enough to justify what he'll probably get as a free agent.

[nsimps]

I agree with those that have said we should just wait and see. Hart should be on the roster at the start of '06 and should get at-bats to show what he can do at a major league level. There's no reason to extend his contract now or move his contract now. It would be nice to compete for at least the wildcard next year, and I don't see how we can do that without some certainty in our lineup.

[clancyphile]

GenoSeligPrieb

 

You make a good point. Carlos Lee was valuable for the Brewers in 2005.

 

But here is the problem I see. Lee is going to get $8.5 million. If the Brewers could trade him for some solid pitching prospects and maybe a great super-utility guy to replace Hall (who is the front-runner to start at third base), acquire a top-flight starter like Kevin Millwood, and muddle through in left field with Cruz, Hart, Ginter, Jose Cruz. Jr, or some combination of players.

 

It might sound like a step back in LF, but overall, the team would be better off overall having a rotation of Sheets, Davis, Millwood, Capuano, and Ohka. It doesn't strike me as a rotation that's going to be lit up very often (I don't think any of these guys had an ERA over 4.00 in 2005).

[pogokat]

You also noted that CLee's 2005 #s suggest he's replaceable. By whom? I've asked this twice before, and still haven't received a real counter-response: For $8,000,000 a year, who in the majors is available to us, who can hit 30+ HRs and drive in 110-120 runs, right now? I mentioned Berkman and Vernon Wells, to give everyone a head start, but their teams will wisely keep them.

 

I said:

"As for Hart or Cruz matching Carlos' numbers...it's definitely possible... Hart would likely get on base at a much higher clip and steal alot of bases...sort of like Overbay this year but fast....Nelson cruz could easily hit 20-30 hr's with a low obp just like carlos.."

 

as for the 5% decline...i was referring to his OPS, not his HR's or RBI's...If he dropped 42 points off his OPS, he would be below average...10% and we are talking J Hamms bad...

 

To reiterate again...I think one of the two rookies could be within that 5% range in OPS next year (.760) and then be better the year after...that's not a reach at all, and their minor league EQA's show that it's very possible..

 

As for Hr's and Rbi's, well Nelson Cruz hit 27 bombs this year in 456 ab's...so, he could easily hit 30...He was also on pace for over 100 rbi's in a 600 ab season...not to mention he had 99 the year before..

 

Corey Hart had 19 hr's in 485 ab's...which would have set him up for 25 or so over 600 ab's...he has also had two seasons where he drove in 90+ runs...and he did it with rummies like krynzel in front of him...

 

I think either or both of these guys could put up better Ops's than Lee did this year in a year or two...and I think they both have the power to hit 30+ bombs...on top of that, i think they have both demonstrated that given opportunity, they can drive runners in too..

 

And if the brewers commit to one of them full time in the middle of 2006 or the beginning of 2007, then they can use the 9 million a year (not 18, i was implying he had two years remaining) that CLEE would make and put it to a better use...

[1992casey]

---

RBI's are a counting stat, and while not worthless, is like using wins to decide who was a better pitcher.

---

I know how you feel about RBIs in determining a player's worth (I agree), so I'm figuring your comment is more applicable to the 'counting stat' part.

 

Some people actually prefer counting stats on the basis of playing time being worth something. I prefer rate stats. Still, with either one, we end up qualifying them with plate appearances or at bats.

 

I guess the bottom line is that there are good and bad counting stats (runs created being good and RBI being bad), just like there are good and bad rate stats (OPS being good and BA being bad).

[1992casey]

---

"People just get excited because of his HRs and RBIs."

---

And we're wrong about that, how, Russ? ...

 

If you look long enough for arcane statistics to marginalize a player's accomplishments, especially in such a stat-heavy sport as baseball, you'll find them. But they won't mean much at all, if the man delivers what he's paid to do. ...

 

Marginalizing what Carlos Lee brought to our offense is like saying Jennifer Garner is ugly because her smile is a little crooked.

---

I don't think Russ' stats are too arcane at all for a message board audience.

 

I think any fan likes to see homers and RBIs. And while I think RBIs are worthless for evaluating an individual, I'm not such a scrooge that I don't get enjoyment out of seeing a player rack them up.

 

Honestly, I have no problem at all with Carlos was paid this year or with what he'll be paid next year. I agree with you that he made some very important contributions to this year's team. I also feel that he'll be a significant contributor next year. And I'm not going to quibble about a couple million in overpayment (if that's actually the case).

 

Where I want to draw the line is in risking gross overpayment. Offering him a contract in 2006 that pays him $10 million in 2009 stands an excellent chance of doing that.

 

---

If we keep him for all next year and we can stay in the post season race then lose him for no compensation I don't see that as a waste.

---

If Carlos is a reason the Brewers are contending next year, I would think most trade deadline possibilities would effectively be eliminated. He'd be, in effect, a rental player at that point, but that's just what happens in a pennant race.

 

He wouldn't have to be let go for nothing, though. Offering arby would ensure draft choice compensation. That's not all that bad. Teams that are active in the free agent market also let free agents go. That's how they re-tool their farm systems. It's just something that we, as Brewer fans, aren't used to.

 

As I said before, paying an arby-inflated salary in 2007 would likely be fine with me, too. That would simply be the cost of doing business. Wins 87-92 tend to cost more than the first 86; sometimes that cost carries over into the next season.

[bsglorydays]

As for Hr's and Rbi's, well Nelson Cruz hit 27 bombs this year in 456 ab's...so, he could easily hit 30...He was also on pace for over 100 rbi's in a 600 ab season...not to mention he had 99 the year before..

 

Corey Hart had 19 hr's in 485 ab's...which would have set him up for 25 or so over 600 ab's...he has also had two seasons where he drove in 90+ runs...and he did it with rummies like krynzel in front of him...

 

 

AAA... Before I deal a Carlos Lee type player, I want to know that these guys (Hart and Cruz) will perform the way you portray them. Don't tell me that they COULD do this or that. I could win the lottery, but I'm not going to quit coming to work until I actually do.

 

If the Brewers trade Carlos and neither Hart nor Cruz pan out right away, which is a very realistic possibility, 2006 is down the drain more than likely.

[molitor fan]

Carlos' game by game productivity was a huge factor in whether the Brewers would win or not:

 

In games in which Carlos had an RBI the Brewers were 49-18

 

In games Carlos was shut out in RBI column, they were 32-63

 

Obviously the inherant nature and importance of the # 4 spot in the lineup has a piece of this, but after doing a little research on Derrick Lee, Andruw Jones, and David Ortiz, Carlos Lee's relationship of rbi's to victory percentage is much, much higher than the few other RBI leaders I have looked at. For Brewer opponents in 2005, if you could take away, you could trult take away a significant chance of winning the ball game.

 

 

Edit for rluz: I have to get a lesson plan completed, so I cannot do the full research, but the Braves, with a much higher winning % were 53-29 with a Jones RBI, the Red sox were 54-25 with an Ortiz RBI, and the Cubs were 39-21 with a Derrick Lee RBI.

[rluzinski]

Obviously the inherant nature and importance of the # 4 spot in the lineup has a piece of this, but after doing a little research on Derrick Lee, Andruw Jones, and David Ortiz, Carlos Lee's inverse relationship of rbi's to victory percentage is much, much higher than the few other RBI leaders I have looked at.

 

As a #4 hitter and looking at the way he plays, it's not suprising that Lee can make or break the Brewer's offense. With a very low OBP but a very high SLG, Lee might rack up RBI's but may do so at the detriment of future runs scored. 10% of his RBI's came as a result of making an out, for instance (SF). The relationship between Lee's RBI's and winning isn't necessarily a positive one for Lee.

 

Could you present your research here, please?

[BillScottCanRake]

AAA... Before I deal a Carlos Lee type player, I want to know that these guys (Hart and Cruz) will perform the way you portray them. Don't tell me that they COULD do this or that. I could win the lottery, but I'm not going to quit coming to work until I actually do.

 

The problem is, however, that you don't know what Lee will do next year, either.

 

Is replacing Lee with Hart or Cruz a risk? Yep, it is, because neither has an MLB track record, and prospects fail all the time. But keeping Lee isn't risk-free, either. And while a huge dip in production might be unlikely, it's not impossible.

[pogokat]

AAA... Before I deal a Carlos Lee type player, I want to know that these guys (Hart and Cruz) will perform the way you portray them. Don't tell me that they COULD do this or that. I could win the lottery, but I'm not going to quit coming to work until I actually do.

 

Well, Prince Fielder could be good...but we'll never know if we don't try him

 

BTW...the only teams that can afford to NEVER try rookies in place of Veterans are the Yankees and the BoSox..and even they sometimes let prospects play (Robinson Cano)

 

It is asinine to expect to "know" that these guys can play in the majors before you trade Lee...how can you, Lee is blocking them!

 

The Brewers need to continue building with youth...if they seel the house to keep carlos lee, then something is wrong (like maybe Dean Taylor or Sal bando have taken over again)

 

Where were you guys two years ago when we traded Richie Sexson??? he was a million times better than Carlos Lee is...or JBurn...he was better too..

 

why is everyone so hung up on carlos lee?

 

I don't want to settle for mediocrity...I want the best team the brewers can give me...and Frankly, I think that one of the minor league guys+ whatever the brewers get for leee, or do with the money save by not paying him is better than Carlos alone...

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I said: "As for Hart or Cruz matching Carlos' numbers...it's definitely possible... Nelson cruz could easily hit 20-30 hr's with a low obp just like carlos..that's not a reach at all, and their minor league EQA's show that it's very possible...I think either or both of these guys could put up better Ops's than Lee did this year in a year or two...and I think they both have the power to hit 30+ bombs...on top of that, i think they have both demonstrated that given opportunity, they can drive runners in too."[/"

 

That's an incredible reach, pogo!

 

Brettac noted, "Cruz did nothing in the minors until he was was 24. Heck, he was in A ball last year as a 24 year old in a hitter's league" And from that, you can't honestly assert that Nelson Cruz can therefore step right in and "easily hit 20-30 HRs"? C'mon!

 

Cruz and Hart have done nothing at all at the major league level to "demonstrate that given opportunity, they can drive runners in too." You can't look past that. The distance between the minors and majors is incredibly vast, and no MLE formula will ever properly account for that. If the gap from the minors to the bigs was so easy to bridge, then there wouldn't be so many thousands of flameouts like Mike Coolbaugh, Kevin Orie and Joey Meyer.

 

"as for the 5% decline...i was referring to his OPS, not his HR's or RBI's...If he dropped 42 points off his OPS, he would be below average...10% and we are talking J Hamms bad..."

 

Here's one thing I've always felt should be built into OPS arguments: The notion that a starting major leaguer (at any position), with even 400 plate appearances, can physically turn in a .000 OPS for the "lowest" comparative measure. If you're trying to compare OPS's and hypothetically lop off 5% or 10%, then your low data range point would have to be around .600 up to 1.100 max. Cut 5% off of Carlos's .600 - 1.100 OPS range, and from .811 (211 points from the "minimum"), he's now at .800 or so, which isn't great, but ceratinly not Hammonds-esque. But as you know, lopping 5% off any numbers means operatig in the hypothetical world, anyway.

 

"While I don't always agree with your arguments they are almost always reasonable. You are proving to be very stubborn on your insistance that RBIs can be used as a good individual measure of hitting prowess."

 

First of all, thanks Russ. I try to be reasonable, although sometimes, ya never know with me...

 

Anyway, I DO see what you're throwing out there, with regard to RBI opportunities. I'm just taking a simpler approach, I guess.

 

I see 2004's middle of the order: O/Jenks/Clark and we failed to cash in runners and finished in last.

 

In 2005, use Clark as the table-setter he was destined to be, and swap Jenkins to 5th with CLee 4th. Now that's a scarier 3/4/5, right?

 

I know, I know, I'm oversimplifying, because the career years of Capuano, Clark, Hall and Turnbow accounted for probably 7-10 games of improvement in the standings alone, maybe more. But honestly, 2 healthy boppers in the middle of the lineup cashing in runs makes for a healthier, more productive offense, and we win more games.

 

I'm just sayin'...

 

Here comes the edit!:

 

"Well, Prince Fielder could be good...but we'll never know if we don't try him"

 

Pogo:

 

We can afford to break in a budding slugger like Prince in '06 because we already have 2 established ones. Take one away (and make it the #1 guy, to boot), and you're placing too much of a burden of the rookies coming through.

 

Besides, we're debating giving the #2 man in the draft, with a spectacular baseball pedigree and rapid, spectcular development through the minors, and adding him to Jenkins and Lee.

 

Nelson Cruz and Corey Hart are aging nuggets who don't have similar "can't miss" labels attached to them as Prince and Rickie do, and rightly so. They're maybe's. Rickie and Prince are probablies.

 

"It is asinine to expect to "know" that these guys can play in the majors before you trade Lee"

 

But isn't that what you've been saying about Cruz and Hart, writing that it's definitely possibel they can replace Carlos Lee's production in 2006, and that they can "easily hit 20-30 bombs" ?

 

No one knows how these 2 outfield nuggets can perform in the majors, but Prince and Rickie already have begun to. Big difference.

[clancyphile]

rluzinski

 

Agreed. Lee's still pretty solid, and a deal involving him would be able to land a legit #2 starter or some young arms to replenish the farm system (which has question marks due to injuries).

 

Options in LF could include Hart, Branyan, Cruz, Ginter, or some player who is currently a FA, and if the Crew can get theat starting pitcher (either as part of a trade or as a free agent), why not go for it?

[RedbirdRay]

In regards to replacing Carlos. I don't see the "no real replacement" options arguement. A lot can be done through trade. And, a lot can be done with $8.5 million dollars. It doesn't necessarily have to be just one player replacing Carlos, nor does it necessarily mean your cleanup hitter be a left fielder. You just have to replace what he meant to the lineup/team in terms of helping the team win. If Carlos' contributions are spread over an upgrade at third base, an average left fielder priced accordingly, and an upgrade to the pitching staff...why wouldn't that be sufficient? You have outfielders in the farm system ready for the call. You have an extra first baseman also primed for trade. The look of the team could be a lot different with some aggressive moves. Why does all the offense have to come from left field?

[7rebmun]

Branyan and Ginter . . . did I miss something? Am I in a 2004 timewarp?

 

I realize I shouldn't even bother commenting on this, but I can only read about stuff like 5 times a week before my brain starts to hurt.

 

Why would these guys even be options to play LF IN MILWAUKEE in 2006? Sweet jebus. One player isn't even on the team, and the other probably won't be.

[nsimps]

Quote:

---

It is asinine to expect to "know" that these guys can play in the majors before you trade Lee...how can you, Lee is blocking them!

---

 

If we have a good fourth outfielder, is it unreasonable to expect him to get 3 starts and between 12-15 ABs a week?

[HOF4canrake]

If you asked me, in general, if we should trade Carlos Lee, I would say no in a heartbeat.

 

You can argue he's an "average" left fielder based on the average statistics for that position, but I'd be thrilled any time somebody put up the numbers he does each year.

 

However, if you give me a potential trade involving real players, I'd obviously have to consider it, depending on who we'd be getting.

 

I do not trust Hart and/or Cruz right now, but it is possible down the road they could produce. Expecting them to do that in their true rookie year, however, could be a stretch.

 

Plus, I agree about pressure on Fielder and Weeks. With Lee and Jenkins in the lineup, the responsibility to drive in runs is more spread out and the youngsters can play more relaxed.

 

But again, give me a specfic trade scenario and Lee may better help the Brewers with the players we'd get in return.

[rluzinski]

Why would these guys even be options to play LF IN MILWAUKEE in 2006?

 

Exactly! I'd rather have Matt Stairs than EITHER of those two!

[plowjockey]

Quote:

---

why is everyone so hung up on carlos lee?

---

Because without him in 2004 we were all desperately crying for much needed bopper in the middle of the order. We knew that without one, the Brewers would continue to stink. That 2004 team barely won 60 games. After aquiring that much needed big bopper in the middle of the line-up they win 81 games (with their ace pitcher out for half the year). Now, there are many people want to turn right around and trade him away? To many of us who can remember past more than a year at a time, we find this incredible.

To all of the stat guys with your intricate formulas, (many of which I do appreciate) I have a stat for you. Almost 20 more wins in one season. It's the only stat that counts or means anything.

Carlos Lee was a (if not the) major factor in this turn around. He carried this team for half the year! Some guys when they get hot can do it for a week or 10 days. No one in their right mind looks to trade one of these guys unless you have an abundance of them(like Kenny Williams did last year).

Trade him if you must, but it better be a blockbuster.

[DougJones43]

why is it necessary for lee's hitting value to be replaced in the exact position of LF? all that's important is that his hitting value is replaced in the batting order. he is a right-handed power threat in the middle of the order. as i stated before, rickie weeks seems like the most likely candidate to take on this role in the immidiate future, not hart or cruz. hart could then play LF and do his thing (get on base) at a different spot in the order, while not necessarily needing to match carlos lee's HR and RBI output. he would also be far cheaper, as has been pointed out, which may allow for upgrades in other areas.

 

that said, i would like to keep lee until at least the all-star break to get a better idea of what each prospect is capable of producing at the major league level. don't trade him until we are certain it won't leave us with holes in the batting order.

[7rebmun]

Since I almost took things off course, my actual opinion on the topic is that I like Carlos Lee. Do I want to lock him up long term? Heck no. Do I want him to play LF for most/all of this year? Heck yes.

 

I'd love to count on rookies, but you can't really. If you plug Hart/Cruz in there from the getgo you might be lucky to get a guy who bats .240 with 15 HRs a whole pile of Ks and a .300 OBP. Hardy is a pretty good hitter and look how long it took him to put it together.

 

The Brewers are at a point where they can afford a guy like Carlos Lee, average or not, and don't need to go with rookies. Yeah, if you can get a ton of value for him in a trade, and you have someone else at the major league level to put in LF, go ahead.

 

Carlos Lee and his contract just seem like a trade deadline deal waiting to happen. He's not locked up long term, he's a proven power bat, he's smart on the bases and won't kill you in the field. He's also played in a big market (Chicago), so that won't make teams shy away, and he produces.

 

Up until that point, he should serve the Brewers well as we develop some of our other OFers behind him this season.

[backup catchers]

I think we are all looking Carlos from differant persectives. Some look at him in terms of how he rates vs other left fielders, some look at him for his offensive qualities regardless of position, and still others look at him as a specific type of hitter. A well rounded offense has differant types of hitters. Russ and co. are right about rbi being a poor indicator of most players. I do believe Geno has a point as well, rbi's are meaningful when it comes to middle of the order guys like Lee. They are judged by a differant standard. Kind of like a closer is a differant job than the rest of the pen. Rbi are what count.

A middle of the order hitter like Lee has to be replaced with a middle of the order type hitter. You don't replace a threat like Lee by committee. Next year is probably to early for Prince to be that guy. Hart/Cruz just isn't the same for the middle of the order as Lee. So keep Lee for next year and see what happens.

[rluzinski]

Almost 20 more wins in one season. It's the only stat that counts or means anything. Carlos Lee was a (if not the) major factor in this turn around.

 

That's really bad analysis to attribute Carlos Lee as the major factor of the Brewer's success in 2005, relative to 2004. There were MANY factors to the improvement and Carlos Lee is only a small part of it:

 -------------------- 2004 ------------------- -------------------- 2005 ------------------- Pos Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ Pos Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ DIFF C Chad Moeller .208 .265 .303 50 C Damian Miller .273 .340 .413 97 +47 1B Lyle Overbay .301 .385 .478 127 1B Lyle Overbay .276 .367 .449 113 -14 2B Junior Spivey .272 .359 .421 106 2B Rickie Weeks .239 .333 .394 90 -16 3B Wes Helms .263 .331 .361 84 3B Russ Branyan .257 .378 .490 126 +42 SS Craig Counsell .241 .330 .315 72 SS J.J. Hardy .247 .327 .384 86 +14 LF Geoff Jenkins .264 .325 .473 108 RF Geoff Jenkins .292 .375 .513 131 +22 CF Scott Podsednik .244 .313 .364 79 LF Carlos Lee .265 .324 .487 110 +31 RF Brady Clark .280 .385 .397 108 CF Brady Clark .306 .372 .426 109 + 1 BE Bill Hall .238 .276 .374 70 BE Bill Hall .291 .342 .495 117 BE Keith Ginter .262 .333 .479 112 BE Chad Moeller .206 .257 .367 62 BE Ben Grieve .261 .364 .415 106 BE Jeff Cirillo .281 .373 .427 110 BE Gary Bennett .224 .297 .329 66 BE Junior Spivey .236 .308 .374 78 BE Russ Branyan .234 .324 .525 120 BE Wes Helms .298 .356 .458 112 TOTAL RUNS SCORED: 634 TOTAL RUNS SCORED: 726 TOTAL RUNS AGAINST: 757 TOTAL RUNS AGAINST: 697 

The 2005 Brewers scored 92 more runs and gave up 60 less runs. Right off the bat, 40% of the improvement was on the pitching side. I don't recall Lee pitching much in 2005.

 

As for the offense, there was alot of areas of improvement. Lee essentially replaced Pods (with Clark moving over), which certainly was a huge improvement. The thing is, just about ANY corner OF would have been an improvement over the Black hole Pods was in 2004. The improvments at C and 3B were actually bigger than that, however. The difference between 04 and 05 Jenkins was a big difference as well.

 

The addition to Lee was a huge boost in 2005, but it was only a small part of the team's improvement.