What to do with Carlos?

[1992casey]

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Lee is 29, and has OBP's his last several years of .344, .315, .362, .330, .363, and .327. While there's one really low OBP, seems to me he can be counted on for .325-.345.

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Using Carlos Lee's Baseball-Reference.com page, I'm getting slightly different numbers than DHonks, but they're not enough to change anything.

 

I don't have a problem with the concept of counting on .325-.345; it's just that .325-.345 isn't very good.

 

What makes Lee stand out (in the wrong direction) is that there aren't many low OBP sluggers. Of the 47 major leaguers with a better 2005 slugging percentage than Carlos, only four had a lower OBP.

 

Here's the breakdown of the top 48 sluggers' OBPs, including Carlos:

[u]| Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP |[/u]
| 1 Todd Helton .445 | 17 Brian Roberts .387 | 33 Troy Glaus .363 |
| 2 Jason Giambi .440 | 18 Miguel Cabrera .385 | 34 Matt Holliday .361 |
| 3 Albert Pujols .430 | 19 Michael Young .385 | 35 Randy Winn .360 |
| 4 Alex Rodriguez .421 | 20 Jim Edmonds .385 | 36 Chad Tracy .359 |
| 5 Derrek Lee .418 | 21 Mark Teixeira .379 | 37 Cliff Floyd .358 |
| 6 Lance Berkman .411 | 22 Gary Sheffield .379 | 38 Aramis Ramirez .358 |
| 7 Travis Hafner .408 | 23 Jeff Kent .377 | 39 Miguel Tejada .349 |
| 8 Jason Bay .402 | 24 Chase Utley .376 | 40 Mike Sweeny .347 |
| 9 Carlos Delgado .399 | 25 Geoff Jenkins .375 | 41 Andruw Jones .347 |
| 10 David Ortiz .397 | 26 Paul Konerko .375 | 42 Bill Hall .342 |
| 11 Vlad Guerrero .394 | 27 Ken Griffey .369 | 43 Jermaine Dye .333 |
| 12 Pat Burrell .389 | 28 Richie Sexson .369 | 44 Carlos Lee .324 |
| 13 David Wright .388 | 29 Hideki Matsui .367 | 45 Jay Gibbons .317 |
| 14 Morgan Ensberg .388 | 30 Dave Dellucci .367 | 46 Jason Lane .316 |
| 15 Manny Ramirez .388 | 31 Jason Varitek .366 | 47 Jorge Cantu .311 |
[u]| 16 Adam Dunn .387 | 32 Jhonny Peralta .366 | 48 Alfonso Soriano .309 |[/u]

Even Lee's career best OBP (.366) barely gets him out of the bottom third of this list.

[Weirdos19]

This is incredible. Carlos Lee is not average. His average was down this year. True. But he changed leagues this year. Look at the guys who changed leagues this year.

 

Superstars that changed leagues this year: Lee, Beltran, Beltre, and Delgado.

 

Almost every player has a dropoff in that first year. Carlos' was less than the three other players above.

 

Carlos in 2006: .295/38/130

 

Remember, Brady wasn't a OBP machine in the second half. Weeks slumped too. Nobody that hit ahead of Carlos got on base. Carlos drives in 140 if he has anybody on base in the second half.

 

People on this site say the RBI doesn't mean anything, that it's a fluke. Well look at the list of guys who have more RBI than Carlos in the last 5 years (before 2005).

 

Manny, AROD, Palmeiro, Bonds, and Frank Thomas.

 

Just guessing that Carlos passed the last three (1999-2005). So Manny and AROD are the only two with more RBI than Carlos.

 

And there is talk of not signing him up?

[1992casey]

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Carlos Lee is not average.

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He was actually a little below average for a left fielder this year, but he was so close to average that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Weirdos19]

You are crazy. There were three other left fielders in the majors that went 30/100:

 

Manny

Cabrera

Bay

 

 

While I'd take any of these three guys over Carlos, he is not average. His defense isn't great, but it's average. His baserunning was suprisingly good.

[mikerollins]

Quote:

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This is incredible. Carlos Lee is not average. His average was down this year. True. But he changed leagues this year. Look at the guys who changed leagues this year.

 

Superstars that changed leagues this year: Lee, Beltran, Beltre, and Delgado.

 

Almost every player has a dropoff in that first year. Carlos' was less than the three other players above.

 

Carlos in 2006: .295/38/130

 

Remember, Brady wasn't a OBP machine in the second half. Weeks slumped too. Nobody that hit ahead of Carlos got on base. Carlos drives in 140 if he has anybody on base in the second half.

 

People on this site say the RBI doesn't mean anything, that it's a fluke. Well look at the list of guys who have more RBI than Carlos in the last 5 years (before 2005).

 

Manny, AROD, Palmeiro, Bonds, and Frank Thomas.

 

Just guessing that Carlos passed the last three (1999-2005). So Manny and AROD are the only two with more RBI than Carlos.

 

And there is talk of not signing him up?

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Finally some common sense!! Carlos Lee is an elite corner OF and the numbers prove it. I do not want to trade our biggest run producer regardless of how much money he makes. I want to build on the success of last year and not hope a couple of rookies can hit 35 HR's and drive in 120 RBI's.

[pogokat]

My favorite type of argument goes something like this:

 

You must be crazy because you don't agree with me and I am always right.

 

so, of course there is no need to rebutte your argument, because, well...I'm crazy

[1992casey]

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Carlos Lee is an elite corner OF

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An elite corner outfielder would have produced a .900-plus OPS at least a few times in a seven year career. Carlos has produced at the rate of .775 (fine for a rookie), .829, .789, .843, .830, .891, and .811. His career OPS is .825 and his career OPS+ is 111 (11% above average when compared to all players in his league, not just corner outfielders).

 

Here's where Carlos ranked among the 21 MLB left fielders who qualifed for the batting title this year:

• 3rd in plate appearances (688)
• 16th in batting average (.265)
• 18th in on base percentage (.324)
• 12th in slugging percentage (.487)
• 13th in OPS (.811)
• 9th in isolated power (.222)
• 10th in runs created (100.1)
• 15th in runs created per 27 outs (5.67)
• 12th in BB/PA (.083)

To me, to be elite, a player should rank in the top five of most of the above categories, (batting average and plate appearances excluded).

 

Still, given all this, I don't think anyone is advocating immediately ridding ourselves of Lee. We knew what we were getting when he was acquired, he didn't fall a massively below those expectations, and he certainly ran circles around Scott Podsednik. Many of us are just leery of committing to an expensive contract keeping him in a Brewer uniform until he's 34.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Most players peak somewhere between 27 and 29 and then post 4-5 pretty steady years of production.

 

Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but it sounds like you're saying that age 34 is about the same as age 30 for most players. And that is not in general true...many players who are productive regulars at 30 are bench players or out of the league at 34. As pogo said, superstars are usually very productive in their 30s because they have a long way to go from their peak to average. While I'm a fan of Lee, he's not in that class.

 

Amongst the most-comparable players at bb-ref.com to Lee you see examples. His best comp is George Bell. Bell hit 47 HR at age 27, with an OPS+ of 146 (Lee's top OPS+ has been 124). Ages 29-32 he had two league-average years and two in the 120 range. At age 33 he hit like a backup catcher...average .216, OPS+ of 66. Kent Hrbek had OPS+ of 147 at age 27, and dropped steadily until he was below average at 34. Raul Mondesi had his best year at 26, OPS+ of 141, and was basically done at 33 with OPS+ of 81. Bobby Thomson declined even more quickly, from 150 OPS+ at 27 (see a trend?), to below average by 30.

 

The guys from Lee's comp list who played into their late 30s were much, much better hitters...Jack Clark, Reggie Smith, Andre Dawson, with peak OPS+ values for those three: 176, 167, 167. You can decline a lot from there and still be a productive player. (Each guy also had seasons in their early 30s that were in the same range as their peak.) These comps also bring up another issue...Smith and Dawson were Gold Glove CF in their 20s, so as they aged, they could handle a corner slot. The guys who were out of the league quickly had much less defensive value to start with, and became pretty limited in their 30s. Even Jack Clark, whom I remember in his 30s as an immobile slugger at 1b or DH, was a pretty good RF and even played some CF and 3B early in his career. Which category would you put Carlos Lee into?

 

The moral of the story for me is that it's a good bet that Lee is a productive hitter next year, but that the odds decline with each passing year. Lee's offensive and defensive profiles look like a lot of guys who were out of the league before they hit 35. Sure, he could keep going longer...but that's an expensive gamble for a team with limited resources like Milwaukee. His salary is likely to go up, his production to go down...those trends spell trouble if you go long-term with an extension.

 

The nice thing is that if they decide to deal him, the guy has value...especially so if you can find a GM who focuses on Triple Crown numbers like some of the posters above. And the MLEs suggest that there's reason to believe that somewhere in the next year or two, Corey Hart and/or Nelson Cruz will outproduce Lee for a small fraction of the price.

[Weirdos19]

That is in the top half of almost every category. That means better than average in almost every category (or good). Sure, he's in the teens in a few. But overall, he's better than average.

 

That's the facts.

 

And you didn't count HR or RBI. Those stats mean something too.

[DougJones43]

my vote is to keep carlos around, at least until the all-star break in 2006. at that time, cruz and/or hart will have had a little more time to show whether or not they are ready to pick up the slack. while the argument that his production in LF might be replacable is valid, trading lee would still leave somewhat of a hole in the middle of the order. if we trade overbay, that would leave jenkins as the only veteran in the middle of the order.

 

while hart/cruz might be able to post a fairly solid OPS, i don't know if you can count on them yet to hit in the middle of the order. my hope is that rickie weeks proves next season that he is ready to bat in the 3-hole everyday, but until then, trading lee is going to be a huge risk which could potentially open up a gaping hole in the middle of the order. while playing the young talent is a key to winning, there is something to be said for having veteran run producers on the team as well.

[1992casey]

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That is in the top half of almost every category. ...

 

And you didn't count HR or RBI. Those stats mean something too.

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Slugging percentage and isolated power cover home runs and other extra base hits quite nicely.

 

The two runs created stats take care of runs scored and RBI, offering the added benefit of isolating a player's production from that of his teammates.

 

When ranked in a group of 21 ... 16th, 18th, 12th, 13th, 15th, and 12th aren't in the top half. But it's certainly possible to come back and suggest that if more left fielders were included (9 teams weren't represented), Carlos would probably look better. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[PietroSanGiacomo]

Melvin will take care of us.

 

I've been wavering on this one since about August because there are obvious advantages to each side. I think a trade helps us most for 2007 and beyond, but it could potentially be the best for 2006 too assuming we don't trade him for Christian Guzman or something. I look forward to seeing how Melvin handles this, but I have the feeling I'll be at peace whether or not he's on the opening day roster in 2006.

 

However, I'd be willing to bet parts of my male anatomy that he's not around in 2007.

[bat04]

I am surprised Carlos's physical weight hasn't come up in this argument. I believe Carlos could drop about 15 pounds and increase his fitness level a little bit. Yes, I know about his stolen bases, but those are just from being crafty. Imagine what he could due with 15 pounds less on the horse? I think the brewers should sit Carlos down snf talk to him about fitness this off-season. Then if he performs well next year off him a 3 year contract extension, with a team option for a 4th with a reasonable buyout. They could add a performance guarantee in the 4th year based on hits or rbi's or something. What is the real risk in signing him for 3 more years? If he performs well, both he and the team benefit. If he sucks, you still have Cruz and Hart coming along, trade him for nothing and agree to cover some salary. If he does well but Hart and Cruz are pushing hard for pt, you can still trade Carlos to the American league, I am sure if he is still producing the Yankees or the Red Sox's would take him off our hands. I really don't see a lot of down side in giving him a 3-year deal. I too believe that he will do better next year as he will be adjusted to pitching and the players around him will be better so you can?t pitch around him and there will be more RBI chances. Also at the end of 3 years he will only be 32 going on 33, so he shouldn't have fallen off the deep end talent wise. I say 3 years for $25 million, 4th year for $10 million (teams option, with a $1 million buyout) sounds fair.

[DHonks]

I would be interested in seeing some graphs that show the performance of the leftfielders in MLB. Not just the top 21 or so, but nearly all players who started in LF at least a few times this year. Perhaps listing LF as a team, so there are 30 different "LF" to compare. It would be interesting to see the spread/variance/deviation, so we could see how some good/bad players skew the rankings and league averages, especially in HR, RBI, OBP, slg, avg, OPS, 2b, etc. (Hint Hint)

[1992casey]

Calling Russ! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I'd have to think that Scott Podsednik would have a lot to do with skewing AL numbers down this year, while in past years, Barry Bonds had a lot to do with skewing NL numbers up.

[1992casey]

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They could add a performance guarantee in the 4th year based on hits or rbi's or something.

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Those types of incentives are prohibited. Contracts have to stick to things like games played, starts, plate appearances, innings pitched, etc.

[bat04]

Well then plate appearances, then, which would be directly related to how Carlos and for that matter Hart and Cruz are doing.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the plan is to give Hart at least enough major league AB's in a utility role to determine his readiness to be a full time major league player while at the same time seeing if Cruz continues to progress at AAA. If Hart shows he's capable of handling major league pitching and Cruz develops his plate discipline, I think they will conclude they won't need to sign Carlos.

 

I don't anticipate his being traded though if the team is in contention.

[backup catchers]

If the reason for trading Lee would be to improve the team I'm fine with that. I'm for anything that improves the team. If trading him is because of the money I'm ok with that as well. Provided they can get the same production via the trade for a cheaper price. If the only reason for the trade is the fear that we will get nothing in return for him if he leaves via free agency I just can't see the arguement. If we keep him for all next year and we can stay in the post season race then lose him for no compensation I don't see that as a waste. We have moved past that era when everyone that leaves via free agency instead of a trade is a critical error that is bound to have an impact for years to come. We have a farm system that can absorb the loss of players like Lee. So my vote is keep him next year if he is the best option for 06 and let him walk after the season and let the farm system work the way it's supposed to for Milwaukee to be successful.

[bsglorydays]

I'm not opposed to trading Carlos if there is a suitable replacement ready to step in. To date, I have not seen any evidence to suggest that there is.

 

Corey Hart showed very little in his short time with the Brewers. Nelson Cruz only had a handful of at bats. Tearing up AAA is one thing... doing it at the Major League level is an entirely different thing. That's why there are "AAAA" players - guys that are "too good" for AAA but can't cut it in the Big Leagues.

 

I expect Hart and Cruz to both have good, long Major League careers. But, there is just no way to know if they are ready right now without giving them a chance to play. The problem is, trading Carlos now (in order to give one or both a chance to play) would be dismantling the hopes that they have worked so hard to build.

 

If the crew is out of the race at the deadline, trade Lee at that time. Do not trade Lee this off-season. If the Brewers are still in contention at the deadline in 2006, keep Carlos, and we can have a "Should we re-sign Carlos Lee" thread at this time next year.

[rluzinski]

The below table shows the aggregates at LF for each team in the MLB:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/LF2005.gif

 

If you are worried about averages being distorted by extremes at either end, just look at the mode (SLG is a good example).

 

As you can see, the only area that Lee really disinguishes himself from the average LFer is RBIs. He certainly has above average power, but it's barely outside 1 standard deviation. Considering he's being compared to ANYONE who's played LF in 2005, that's not particularily impressive.

 

While many point to Lee's RBIs as proof of his elite status , a little digging shows that they aren't much of a reflection of his actual abilities. Let's look at the top 10 LF, ranked by RBIs:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/RBILF.gif

 

1st: Total number of runners at first during player's PAs

2nd: Total number of runners at second during player's PAs

3rd: Total number of runners at third during player's PAs

NHRBI: RBIs - HRs (number of base runners scored by player)

Run: Total base runners during player's PAs

RISP: Total base runners in scoring position

run/RBI: runners needed for each NHRBI

 

Lee is 5th in RBIs but look at how many RBI opportunities he had. He was 5th in total runners and had the 2ND most number of runners in scoring position. Comparing him with any position, he was 7th in total runners and 4th in runners in scoring position. The Brewers gave Carlos a TON of RBI opportunities.

 

Comparing Lee to any MLB LF with more than 450 PA (He should be compared to fellow starters IMO), he certainly doesn't look like anything special at all:

 

MLB LF w/450+ PA

 

People just get excited because of his HRs and RBIs. The HRs are nice but that alone doesn't make him elite by any stretch.

 

RBI Opportunites

 

Team Aggregates, LF

[dadofandrew]

Russ, that chart shows Carlos ended up with the amount of RBI's you would "expect" him to, based on runners?

 

How ironic, I thought it was all clutch.

 

 

RBI's are a counting stat, and while not worthless, is like using wins to decide who was a better pitcher.

 

And yes, John Kruk does both. Sad, isn't it?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"People just get excited because of his HRs and RBIs. "

 

And we're wrong about that, how, Russ?

 

I'm sure my stance on this issue is already clear to those who bother to read me (and for that, my condolences!).

 

But sometimes a player's value is simpler to quantify than everyone thinks. Carlos always tends to stay healthy, he steals more bases than you'd expect, he hits lots of homers, and is consistently among the top 10-20 in the majors at driving in runs.

 

That was enough to convince Doug Melvin, a man who's forgotten more about evaluating talent than all of us here will know, to acquir ehim, and judging by what Carlos delivered for us, it should be enough for any of us here, too. Trust Doug!

 

Who cares if you can dig for flaws in his OBP, VORP and park-adjusted standard deviation? He's paid to homer and drive in runs, and he did just that. Besides, if he doesn't, who will? Nelson Cruz?

 

I have already grudgingly admitted Brady Clark turned in a terrific season. Would it be fair of me to say Clark didn't hit enough home runs or didn't drive in enough runs and therefore should be traded, because I still don't like his style? Of course not. I accept the fact that he did what his role suggested he do. Same with Carlos.

 

If you look long enough for arcane statistics to marginalize a player's accomplishments, especially in such a stat-heavy sport as baseball, you'll find them. But they won't mean much at all, if the man delivers what he's paid to do.

[endaround]

Well that's the point. Lee delivered like a $5-6 million player. He's going to be paid $8.5 million. And likely $9 million the following year.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Well that's the point. Lee delivered like a $5-6 million player. He's going to be paid $8.5 million. And likely $9 million the following year. "

 

So?

 

We absorbed Carlos's salary because the White Sox wanted to shed it. They felt they had enough boppers, committed to less production from Jermaine Dye for less money, and they didn't have enough in the speed/leadoff department, so Kenny Williams took a deep threat and made the deal. There wasn't ever a question of whether Carlos can still do his job or not. Free agent sluggers would have cost us more than $8 million, and even then, they probably would've been told by their agents and some peers that the Brewers have cooties, and you shouldn't go there.

 

Therefore, Mark allowed Doug to pay (even perhaps *shudder* OVERpay by 2 whole million dollars or so!) to bring in an established masher who can convert these baserunners into points on the board. It's not as if DM blew up Mark's budget, and spent even $10,000,000 a year on a to backfill the CRUCIAL cleanup hole. Besides, by process of elimination, someone's got to be the top-paid hitter on the team. If not the primary HR/RBI threat, then who?

 

Marginalizing what Carlos Lee brought to our offense is like saying Jennifer Garner is ugly because her smile is a little crooked.