What to do with Carlos?

[sbrylski]

Do we give him an extension for beyond this year? If not, do we trade him this offseason, or trade him before the deadline next year?

 

I think it depends on how much money he would want when negotiating a contract extension. If he will take 6-7 million per year I say sign him. If it's 9 or more then he should be dealt, preferably this offseason, unless a decent offer doesn't come around. If it's about 8 mil that he wants, we could go either way. If he is resigned, I think that Jenkins is now on the trade block, to be dealt anytime before the start of the 2007 season, to make room for Hart or Cruz and reduce an ever-growing payroll.

[clancyphile]

I'm really not inclined to keep him beyond 2006.

 

There are two right-handed power-hitting OF prospects at Nashville (Hart and Cruz).

 

His OBP is not setting me on fire, and he could decline very sharply, and the Brewers would have dead weight on the payroll.

[MNBrew]

I think what we found out this year is that for however good the big run producers look on other teams, very few don't have "warts" that frustrate us when they're in the position of being so closely examined by us. With Richie Sexson it was horrific strikeout totals and low BA, with Jenkins it's terrible chunks of seasons where a remote clue of what to do is a pipe dream, etc. With Carlos Lee it was inconsistency in the form of a 2nd half dropoff. If anyone had suggested a year ago the prospect of the Brewers getting Carlos Lee, most of us would've been stoked at the idea looking at his numbers from afar. What the Brewers got were career highs in homers and RBI along with his career low batting average. Now so many on this board seem willing to discard that SO drastically needed production after one season. I love the potential of Hart & Cruz. But until they are flat-out pushing hard for PT, I'm not sure why we have to think so hard about shipping our biggest bats out of town just 'cause they're paid what those type of bats are normally paid.

[mikerollins]

Forget that!

 

He did everything I wanted him to do. He hit for power and drove in runs. He played a 162 games. People that do that get paid money. I say pay him whatever it takes and sign him to a 3-year extension. The team will never ever get to where it wants to go if it cringes at the thought of paying players and ships them out of town. I think Mark A and Doug Melvin understand this and will keep both Lee and Jenkins even if it means raising payroll. The team is so close (development of Weeks and Hardy after a full season in the majors, Prince being ready to contribute next year, 3 solid pitchers (Sheets, Cappy, Davis), solid closer, power from both corner spots in the OF) to making the playoffs. Why in the world would you blow that up with a blockbuster trade that may make them worse?

 

All this talk of trading Lee is nonsense.

[2006brewers]

If the Brewers are in the race they should not trade him, but if they are out of it by the trade deadline they should trade him. I don't know how much they can get for him.

[brettac1]

Lee just isn't that great, though. He's an average player. If they can get a ton of talent in a deal for him, I think Mark A. and Melvin realize that would be wisest. Players with his body type and skill-set don't age well, and they certainly shouldn't be kept around a low-revenue team until they are 35 for $10 million a year. It doesn't make sense. Chances are that Weeks and Fielder will outperform anything Lee has done, and I think one of Hart or Cruz could match what Lee did for a lot less cash. This is a franchise that should be building toward a 6-8 year window of opportunity by spending wisely, not a team that throws a bunch of money at an aging player in hopes of taking one big shot at it. I'd try and deal him this offseason, and I wouldn't keep him past next year.

[bucky2win]

So funny. Emotional words like "discard" or statments like "I say pay him whatever it takes" or "All this talk of trading Lee is nonsense" really are too much. How can considering bringing in a more needed piece of the puzzle out of bounds? What if the Mets were (I'm not suggesting anything like this will happen but making a point) to trade us one for one for David Wright? Better production from a harder position to fill. Would that be nonsense. What this means is there are trades that would make sense though we may not be offered one. Would ther be any limit on whatever it takes. What if it takes half the projected payroll?

[mikerollins]

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I think one of Hart or Cruz could match what Lee did for a lot less cash.

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Last year we suffered through some of Weeks' and Hardy's growing pains. Luckily we had Lee and Jenks to carry us during those times. Next year Weeks and Hardy will be more experienced and much improved, but you want to suffer through another rookie (Cruz or Hart) getting their feet wet in the outfield? You can't just keep getting younger. At some point you need to have a mix of solid veterans and young and exciting rookies. I don't like the idea of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hall, Cruz, Clark, Hart. That's 6 players that are in their first or 2nd year of big league regular duty.

 

To think Hart and Cruz can match......

 

29 years old. 162 games. 42 doubles. 31 HR's. 114 RBI's. 13 SB's. .265 Batting average. (a career .284 hitter so one would assume he'd be better than .265 next year).

 

His HR's have increased for 6 consecutive seasons. He's driven in at least 99 runs 3 years in a row. He has a career OPS of .825. And he is only 29 years old. Hardly an aging liability. He has at least 4 or 5 years of pretty much "you know what he's going to give you" left in him.

 

To just assume that Cruz or Hart can match those numbers is being overly optimistic. Especially when neither has put up those numbers in the minor leagues.

 

I stand by my stance that the team needs Carlos Lee in the middle of the lineup to compete for a playoff spot. Cruz and Hart can get plenty of plate appearances in reserve roles and strengthen our bench.

 

Go Crew

[brettac1]

How can you say you know what you are going to get out of him for the next 4-5 years? He'll be 30 in June. That's no sure thing. Hart and or Cruz have to get a chance to play some time.

[pitchleague]

I just like the fact that some of us can't make up our minds-- we complain when we don't spend money and raise payroll, but on another post elsewhere on the site, I'll read people complaining that we have an "ever-increasing salary total" and it needs to be reduced by trading Lee, Jenkins, whoever else.

 

Which is it? Spend money and be the Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, et al.? Or start slashing salary ala Oakland, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh? I'm all for prospects getting some playing time but we need veterans, too, and they cost money.

 

Some of these topics become so wishy-washy sometimes (and I'm a culprit, too, before anyone goes ballistic on me)

[Ennder]

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How can you say you know what you are going to get out of him for the next 4-5 years? He'll be 30 in June. That's no sure thing. Hart and or Cruz have to get a chance to play some time.

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Most players peak somewhere between 27 and 29 and then post 4-5 pretty steady years of production. I would expect Lee to put up pretty much the same numbers as this year for a few years. Hart and Cruz could come up and fail miserably. I just don't really see the need to go with a rookie. If we get a good offer for Jenkins or Lee I can see trading them, but it really does have to be a solid offer that plugs a hole elsewhere.

[bucky2win]

I don't think anyone has suggested trading Carlos for a bag of balls.

 

Payroll, it would seem is something the Brewers still and most likely will always need to manage to be able to compete. We will never have a buy a Champoinship type of organization.

[pogokat]

When great players decline they become good...

 

When Good players decline...they become average...

 

Carlos Lee is a good player who played like an average player this year...what does this mean for the future??

 

It is likely that Carlos will be good-average for the next few years and then slip away...

 

His stats this year indicate that he is replaceable..Yes, he hit 31 jacks, yes he had 100+ rbi's...but beyond that Carlos was pretty middle of the road...so, if he decline even 5% he will be a burden on the team..

 

As for Hart or Cruz matching Carlos' numbers...it's definitely possible... Hart would likely get on base at a much higher clip and steal alot of bases...sort of like Overbay this year but fast....Nelson cruz could easily hit 20-30 hr's with a low obp just like carlos..

 

I'm not saying one or both wouldn't have supremem growing pains...but you can't tell me with certainty that Carlos Lee won't be worse next year either..

 

If Carlos Lee was a great player..I'd be in favor of extending him...but since he's just good...i think it's a bad idea...actually, a very bad idea...

[1992casey]

I think a pricey Carlos Lee extension would stand an excellent chance of giving us another Marquis Grissom situation: a nice player signed for too long and too much money at too advanced an age.

 

One option I'd consider, though, is offering arby for 2007. Carlos would be overpaid for one year, not several. If he were to choose to go elsewhere, the draft choices would come in handy, especially if the team is in the market for Type A and B free agents.

[DHonks]

I'd happily give him around 2 years, $18 million. That's not really long term, but it would give us security through 2008.

[Diskono]

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To just assume that Cruz or Hart can match those numbers is being overly optimistic. Especially when neither has put up those numbers in the minor leagues.

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Aside from the HR totals, both of them have put up those numbers pretty much their entire careers.

[sbrylski]

Maybe we just sit on him until nearer to the deadline next year. By then we can see how he preforms, how Cruz/Hart preform, and what kind of players we could get in a trade. It would take a whole lot to get us to trade him this offseason.

[gregmag]

I was trying to figure out how to say well what I was thinking -- then Pogo said it much better than I could.

 

The only thing I'll add/emphasize is that nobody who is suggesting we might benefit from trading Carlos is making that suggestion because we want to give up on contending. We're making that case because we think trading Carlos might make this team better over the next several years. There's a risk we might lose something next year, siwtching from Lee to the better of Hart or Cruz (or a combination of the two) -- but remember that, when you trade somebody, you get something back. Doug Melvin is very good at getting useful somebodys back.

 

Okay, just one other thing, elaborating on something I just said about Hart / Cruz. You know what's great about those two, from a gambling standpoint? There are two of them. As the Lee defenders correctly point out, rookies -- even rookies with strong credentials -- carry some risk (although the Lee fans tend to forget that 30 year-old, low-OBP sluggers also carry some risk). But when you have two rookies with good credentials, the odds that one of them, or a combination of the two, will work out start looking a lot better. I don't have MLE numbers, but my quick analysis tells me that a Hart-Cruz timeshare, with PT weighted based on how each does, would at least match Lee's OBP and produce at least 25 jacks. Does that prediction sound unreasonable? If not, then aren't you willing to see what (a) Lee and (b) the salary difference between Lee and Hart-Cruz can get you in exchange for those 7 home runs?

 

Greg.

[pg44]

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Mark A and Doug Melvin understand this and will keep both Lee and Jenkins even if it means raising payroll.

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Not a chance. There is no reason to have two 30-something outfielders making $8-10 mil. when you can replace one and potentially both with the likes of Hart and Cruz over the next two years and get similar results. I'm not saying trade Lee now (unless you get good value in return), but I wouldn't extend him. Let him go FA take the draft pick, and move either Hart or Cruz into the lineup.

[pg44]

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I just like the fact that some of us can't make up our minds-- we complain when we don't spend money and raise payroll, but on another post elsewhere on the site, I'll read people complaining that we have an "ever-increasing salary total" and it needs to be reduced by trading Lee, Jenkins, whoever else.

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Different people have different opinions. And there's pros and cons to both. I trust that Doug Melvin will make an informed decision and based on his track record I'd say it has better chance than not of working in our favor

[1992casey]

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I don't have MLE numbers, but my quick analysis tells me that a Hart-Cruz timeshare, with PT weighted based on how each does, would at least match Lee's OBP and produce at least 25 jacks.

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2005 MLEs:

 

Corey Hart- .277/.338/.466 (.804 OPS)

Nelson Cruz- .250/.331/.445 (.776 OPS)

 

2005 Major League Equivalencies for Brewers prospects

[DHonks]

(although the Lee fans tend to forget that 30 year-old, low-OBP sluggers also carry some risk).

 

gregmag, Lee is 29, and has OBP's his last several years of .344, .315, .362, .330, .363, and .327. While there's one really low OBP, seems to me he can be counted on for .325-.345.

[RightFieldCoder]

I think Lee's average will go up next year, but his power numbers will drop a little. A lot of people in this post believe his production will go down. I believe it will, but only slightly in the power numbers. I think HR and Slg will take a small drop next year (RBI will simply be a function of how the people hitting in front of him do). However, I believe that since this was his first time in the NL (new stadiums and pitchers), he will do better in his second year in pure number of hits. He also publicly said that participating in the HR contest at the break messed up his swing. If he keeps his swing going all year in his second time around the league, I can't see how his Avg doesn't go up to .290 again.

 

I think he'll get the same treatment as most of our players: plan on keeping them for 1-3 years, but willing to trade for a good offer. The only untouchables should be Sheets, Cap, DD, Bow, Hardy, Weeks, and Fielder.

[mothershipconnection]

With his RBI numbers and "name recognition", Lee is almost certain to be overpaid next winter if he plays well this year. If we're in the hunt, keep him around until the end of the year and get a comp pick in the draft for him. If we're out of contention, I'd trade him at the deadline for the right offer and use the money to target a big free agent that winter.

I do not think he should be traded this winter, as the team has come too far to let a productive player go before we know if we'll be in the playoff hunt or not. Trading him for anything less than major league talent while putting one of two young rookies in his place, IMO, is tantamount to mailing it in for 2006. It'd take an awesome prospect package that we just aren't gonna get to compel Melvin to trade him any sooner than July.

[Iron Chef Napalm]

If I had to guess, I think they will deal Carlos at the break next season. If he equals last season?s first half performance (or goes contract year gangbusters), he could net some upper tier prospects and then we can plug in Hart, Cruz, or move Clark over if DK finds his stroke.