2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)

[owbc]

Essentially we're predicting the first half of the season, as well as any in-season moves based on that prediction, with some assumptions about how much spending money is available to make those moves. The statistical model is going to be better at predicting the first few months than the rest of the season because it doesn't know anything else.

 

With that in mind, the Reds are clearly all-in. The Cardinals and Cubs both appear to be conscious of their budget and haven't done much to warrant different projections from 2019. If you take the Brewers at face value they are a sub-.500 roster, but if you believe in their approach then there is a ton of upside. The Pirates are free wins for everyone else.

 

I think the Reds' approach is terrible in the long run but it's hard to deny that 2020 will probably be a good year for them. I am projecting them to make some mid-season moves to boost their win total into the 90s. I also buy the Brewers' upside and expect additional mid-season moves. I expect the Cubs to be sellers at the deadline.

 

CIN 94

MKE 88

STL 85

CHC 77

PIT 59

[Ennder]

Reds - 85

Brewers - 85

Cubs - 85

Cardinals - 85

Pirates - 61

 

Reds have done the most to improve but had the most need as well. Oddly enough I think the Brewers have had the 2nd best offseason of these teams though it was mostly just treading water. Cubs and Cardinals offseasons have just been losing some guys.

[KeithStone53151]

The most hilarious thing about these "projections" is that Pecota came up with scenarios where the Pirates win what looks like 90 games. How much can I bet on the under for 90 wins?

 

It isn't hilarious if you understand anything about statistics.

 

That scenario involves every single player have the best possible year and being nearly 100% healthy. If you bet on under 90 wins your potential winnings would probably have to be paid out in half pennies.

 

Add to that scenario, the perfect combination of no less than 20 major injuries among the other NL central teams...and maybe then they have a chance.

[Ennder]

In 2008 the Mariners went 61-101. In 2009 without really adding much to the team they went 85-77. From a very short sighted point of view management decided they were ready to compete and they signed a bunch of free agents going into 2010. The two following seasons they went 61-101 and 67-95.

 

You guys can laugh about projections including very rare high win totals for bad teams but it just happens sometimes. That 2009 Mariners team was just awful but everything just sort of went right for them and they pulled out 85 wins with a 61 win roster.

[stalton]

If there ever was a year for a 4 team tie, this would be the best chance. That being said, barring something drastic I see the top 4 in the 80 to 88 range with Pitt around 70.

[pitchleague]

Why not play along?

 

Brewers 88

Reds 87

Cubs 85

Cardinals 78

Pirates 69

[vetter]

Sorry gents but the Reds off season moves pay off in 2020.

 

The Reds allowed the 3rd fewest runs in the entire NL last year. Couple that with an even stronger rotation this year and some key offensive pickups (Moose/Castellanos) and this becomes a formidable ball club.

 

Not to put too much stock in run differential, but 13 runs separated the Brewers +3 (89 wins) from the Reds -10 (75 wins) in '19. The Brewers happened to be 9 games above .500 in the one run column (27-18) and the Reds were exactly 9 games below .500 (24-33).

 

Without the expanded rosters in September the Brewers are even further disadvantaged in 2020.

 

Reds: 91

Cards: 88

Cubs: 83

Brewers: 79

Pirates: 72

[Ennder]

Sorry gents but the Reds off season moves pay off in 2020.

 

The Reds allowed the 3rd fewest runs in the entire NL last year. Couple that with an even stronger rotation this year and some key offensive pickups (Moose/Castellanos) and this becomes a formidable ball club.

 

Not to put too much stock in run differential, but 13 runs separated the Brewers +3 (89 wins) from the Reds -10 (75 wins) in '19. The Brewers happened to be 9 games above .500 in the one run column (27-18) and the Reds were exactly 9 games below .500 (24-33).

 

 

 

These two statements are at odds with each other. The Reds rotation is seeing a heavy downgrade in defense at SS, 2B and LF this year. They way overperformed their FIPs in general last year and there is absolutely no depth past the front 5. I will easily take the under on the Reds matching last year for run prevention. Also the run differential stat is a really weak one, all it takes is removing Corbin Burnes from the mix last year and the run differential for the Brewers goes from mediocre to elite. It just isn't a very valid stat. To be fair though the 3rd order win percentage of the two teams was very close, that is a bit less error prone than run differential.

 

To each their own, but the Reds are likely being a bit overrated going into the season. That rotation has a lot of doubt in it but everyone seems to be sure it will be great. They are in the mix but they hardly ahead of the class.

[JohnBriggs12]

Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.

 

Their 6th starter is Tyler Mahle, who fanned a hitter and inning, and got very little run support in most of his starts. He got 2 or less runs scored for him in 10 of his 25 starts. I don't think that would happen with this season's lineup.

 

I think Reds win division going away with 92-94 wins. Brewers, Cubs and Cards will all win between 78-85. Pirates bring up the rear with 66-70 wins.

[tmwiese55]

If I had to I'd go below. Reds roughly 90 and the next 3 lumped between 78-86, really in any order but I'll say this way for now.

 

Reds

Cards

Brewers

Cubs

Pirates

[brewcrewdue80]

Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.

 

Their 6th starter is Tyler Mahle, who fanned a hitter and inning, and got very little run support in most of his starts. He got 2 or less runs scored for him in 10 of his 25 starts. I don't think that would happen with this season's lineup.

 

I think Reds win division going away with 92-94 wins. Brewers, Cubs and Cards will all win between 78-85. Pirates bring up the rear with 66-70 wins.

 

Just ignore Woodruff's 10.7k/9 of last season. I think math dictates that is more than Descalafini. I dont know where it compares with their best three starting have to look it up. But healthy Woodruff is eclipsing at last one of the 4. All posters arguing for the Reds rotation stay rosey on them while taking a crap on the Brewers rotation. Anderson wont make the full season. Lindblom wont matter. Lauer I dont even know what is bad on him? Then you have a group for #5s that imo will produce better than #5s typically do. But go on every thing that is bad about about them is only going to be wprse. Everything that has ever been positive for the Reds staff isnt anywhere near their ceiling. It's only better for the Reds. Staff will carry below a 2ERA. Brewers staff above 5ERA.

[KeithStone53151]

Just ignore Woodruff's 10.7k/9 of last season. I think math dictates that is more than Descalafini. I dont know where it compares with their best three starting have to look it up. But healthy Woodruff is eclipsing at last one of the 4. All posters arguing for the Reds rotation stay rosey on them while taking a crap on the Brewers rotation. Anderson wont make the full season. Lindblom wont matter. Lauer I dont even know what is bad on him? Then you have a group for #5s that imo will produce better than #5s typically do. But go on every thing that is bad about about them is only going to be wprse. Everything that has ever been positive for the Reds staff isnt anywhere near their ceiling. It's only better for the Reds. Staff will carry below a 2ERA. Brewers staff above 5ERA.

 

The biggest folly I've seen thusfar is how much people are minimizing potential contributions from Burnes/Peralta. Most people see them as upside depth, whereas I expect at least one to force his way into the opening day rotation. Those guys both ranked ahead of Woodruff heading into 2019, primarily for stuff reasons. For whatever reason, Burnes was way too hittable. Peralta was bad in the rotation and much better in relief, likely due to his 1.5-2 pitch arsenal. I can't really explain Burnes, but I would be shocked if the Brewers and him didn't heavily invest in figuring out the problem and identifying a solution heading into 2020. Maybe he added or adjusted a pitch, maybe he was simply tipping pitches...whatever it is, I would find it weird if he was bad again. The stuff is just too good. Peralta went from his 1.5-2 pitch arsenal and from what I read...was throwing 4 distinct pitches in winter league(I'm sure everyone saw the results). Imagine if even one of them is as good or better than 2019 Woodruff. And then imagine we have 2 guys like that the whole season.

[RollieTime]

Just ignore Woodruff's 10.7k/9 of last season. I think math dictates that is more than Descalafini. I dont know where it compares with their best three starting have to look it up. But healthy Woodruff is eclipsing at last one of the 4. All posters arguing for the Reds rotation stay rosey on them while taking a crap on the Brewers rotation. Anderson wont make the full season. Lindblom wont matter. Lauer I dont even know what is bad on him? Then you have a group for #5s that imo will produce better than #5s typically do. But go on every thing that is bad about about them is only going to be wprse. Everything that has ever been positive for the Reds staff isnt anywhere near their ceiling. It's only better for the Reds. Staff will carry below a 2ERA. Brewers staff above 5ERA.

 

The biggest folly I've seen thusfar is how much people are minimizing potential contributions from Burnes/Peralta. Most people see them as upside depth, whereas I expect at least one to force his way into the opening day rotation. Those guys both ranked ahead of Woodruff heading into 2019, primarily for stuff reasons. For whatever reason, Burnes was way too hittable. Peralta was bad in the rotation and much better in relief, likely due to his 1.5-2 pitch arsenal. I can't really explain Burnes, but I would be shocked if the Brewers and him didn't heavily invest in figuring out the problem and identifying a solution heading into 2020. Maybe he added or adjusted a pitch, maybe he was simply tipping pitches...whatever it is, I would find it weird if he was bad again. The stuff is just too good. Peralta went from his 1.5-2 pitch arsenal and from what I read...was throwing 4 distinct pitches in winter league(I'm sure everyone saw the results). Imagine if even one of them is as good or better than 2019 Woodruff. And then imagine we have 2 guys like that the whole season.

 

And then pair those 2 with Lauer and never let him see the mound in Colorado again. Lauer is a good number 2 pitcher if you remove his handful of truly awful starts pitching in Colorado. It wouldn’t shock me if Lauer takes a step forward and gets his K/9 above 9 and drops his ERA to the 3.6 range or so.

[ntretts]

Still think the Cubs are the most talented team in the division...

 

Cubs 88

Brewers 85

Cardinals 84

Reds 81

Pirates 66

[vetter]

Sorry gents but the Reds off season moves pay off in 2020.

 

The Reds allowed the 3rd fewest runs in the entire NL last year. Couple that with an even stronger rotation this year and some key offensive pickups (Moose/Castellanos) and this becomes a formidable ball club.

 

Not to put too much stock in run differential, but 13 runs separated the Brewers +3 (89 wins) from the Reds -10 (75 wins) in '19. The Brewers happened to be 9 games above .500 in the one run column (27-18) and the Reds were exactly 9 games below .500 (24-33).

 

 

 

These two statements are at odds with each other. The Reds rotation is seeing a heavy downgrade in defense at SS, 2B and LF this year. They way overperformed their FIPs in general last year and there is absolutely no depth past the front 5. I will easily take the under on the Reds matching last year for run prevention. Also the run differential stat is a really weak one, all it takes is removing Corbin Burnes from the mix last year and the run differential for the Brewers goes from mediocre to elite. It just isn't a very valid stat. To be fair though the 3rd order win percentage of the two teams was very close, that is a bit less error prone than run differential.

 

To each their own, but the Reds are likely being a bit overrated going into the season. That rotation has a lot of doubt in it but everyone seems to be sure it will be great. They are in the mix but they hardly ahead of the class.

 

It's incredibly inaccurate to say the Brewers would have had an elite run differential if not for Corbin Burnes. In 2019 he pitched a grand total of 49 innings and gave up 48 earned runs. While that's a horrible stat, the run differential in his four starts is only -5 (24-29). Now let's be extremely generous and say the Brewers gave up zero earned runs in the remaining 31 innings he pitched, in which he gave up 27 earned runs. Subtract his 27 runs from the RA column and the Brewers differential would be +30 instead of +3. For comparison, the Cubs won 84 games and their differential was +97. The Cards won just two more games than the Brewers and their RD was +102. No way the Brewers RD would be elite if Burnes hadn't pitched.

 

As I said in my original post, and I'll say again: I don't put too much stock in the run differential either. However, the facts are that every winning team in the MLB last year had positive run differential and every losing team had negative RD.

 

The reason this is relevant is I believe it shows that the the Reds were particularly unlucky in 2019 with just a -10 RD and only 75 wins. Likewise, with only a +3 RD, the Brewers were very fortunate to have 89 wins. I'm not attributing everything to luck, because good strategy can be extremely effective in winning one run games. However, I believe the Reds should have actually been more of an 81-83 win team last year. That's why I feel, unfortunately, that the changes the Reds have made so far could easily take them into 90+ wins in 2020.

[Ennder]

Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.

 

 

I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.

[vetter]

Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.

 

 

I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.

 

Derek Johnson effect

 

On an even sadder note, we can add Wade Miley to the mix once again.

[Ennder]

 

Derek Johnson effect

 

On an even sadder note, we can add Wade Miley to the mix once again.

 

That would show up in the actual peripherals, not just in ERA and nowhere else.

[DHonks]

I'll say:

Brewers 90-72

Cardinals 87-75

Reds 86-76

Cubs 77-85

Pirates 71-91

[ougiqbxy]

Brewers 82-80

Reds 82-80

Cardinals 82-80

Cubs 82-80

Pirates 67-95

[Eye Black]

ZiPS projected NL Central standings taken from this article, The Obscenely Early ZiPS Projected Standings:

 

[pre]Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF%

Cubs 85 77 — .525 39.7% 8.3% 48.0%

Brewers 82 80 3 .506 23.0% 7.4% 30.4%

Cards 82 80 3 .506 18.8% 6.7% 25.6%

Reds 81 81 4 .500 17.8% 6.5% 24.3%

Pirates 71 91 14 .438 0.6% 0.2% 0.8%[/pre]

[adambr2]

Brewers 82-80

Reds 82-80

Cardinals 82-80

Cubs 82-80

Pirates 67-95

 

Though a mediocre division, this would make for one heck of an exciting race and tiebreaker games at the end of the season.

[Soupbone]

They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

 

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.

[stoutdude04]

They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

 

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.

 

Hard to take anything these guys say seriously.

 

Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+

Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+

 

The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete.

[sveumrules]

They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

 

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.

 

Hard to take anything these guys say seriously.

 

Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+

Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+

 

The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete.

 

Right? Both last year & over the last three years, Omar & Yasmani have been essentially the same hitter.

 

Maybe Justice mentions it in the article (no click from me), but the real difference is in their receiving/framing numbers.

 

Something else to consider is plenty of posters doubted the validity of those framing numbers, both overall in general & specifically Grandal's dazzling marks in that category, so it might not even matter that much.