2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)

[Eye Black]

The PECOTA 2020 standings projections are out and they project the NL Central to look like this:

 

 

 

The FanGraphs 2020 standings projections currently only show projected winning percentages which lines up as follows when converted into wins (subject to change once ZiPS is factored in):

 

Cubs - 84 wins

Reds - 81 wins

Brewers - 81 wins

Cardinals - 79 wins

Pirates - 72 wins

 

 

Clay Davenport’s 2020 standings projection model currently predicts the following 2020 NL Central standings (win totals only):

 

Reds - 86 wins

Brewers - 85 wins

Cubs - 82 wins

Cardinals - 79 wins

Pirates - 72 wins

[Eye Black]

In addition to commenting on what the actual projections systems seem to think please feel free to offer up your own NL Central 2020 standings predictions. No need to list full records, just win totals for each team.

 

I’ll start...

 

NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction

 

Cubs - 87

Brewers - 85

Reds - 84

Cardinals - 82

Pirates - 68

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Haven't the Brewers not been highly thought-of by these projection systems the last few years? It kinda seems like tradition at this point.

 

Predicted Standings:

 

Brewers - 90

Cardinals - 87

Cubs - 83

Reds - 80

Pirates - 64

[TURBO]

My NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction:

 

Reds - 85

Cardinals - 84

Cubs - 83

Brewers - 80

Pirates - 67

 

*these are my predictions based on how the teams sit today, 2/11/20. If teams make changes to rosters due to trades, etc, this might look different on opening day.

[brooks_quichenick]

PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...

[JimH5]

Reds 91-71

Cardinals 89-73

Cubs 83-79

Brewers 78-84

Pirates 66-96

 

I am often wildly wrong in my predictions. Hope that this is one of those years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...

 

They nailed it last year, but if I remember correctly ZIPs and Steamer were substantially off. As was PECOTA in 2018.

 

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS, and not PREDICTIONS.

[Ennder]

PECOTA is absolutely terrible at projecting playing time for guys who aren't established set in stone every day contributors. Probably why they liked the Brewers last year since that was most of the lineup and are less impressed this year since there is going to be a lot of mix and match. As I understand it they changed a number of things this season so maybe that changed. I know I used to buy PECOTA years ago but probably about 7 years ago or so all of the other systems passed them and I felt I was paying for probably the weakest of the systems out there.

[Eye Black]

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS, and not PREDICTIONS.

This is a good point, PECOTA's goal isn't to nail an exact win total, but rather offer the range of possible outcomes and the probabilities of each of those outcomes (a much better Baseball Prospectus explanation here).

 

They have bell curves for each team's number of various outcomes taken from their 1,000 simulations. In the Brewers case the curve spikes sharply at the 78-80 win marks...

 

[clancyphile]

Brewers 88-75

Cardinals 87-76

Reds 82-80

Cubs 78-84

Pirates 69-93

 

Brewers beat Cardinals in Game 163 in Miller Park.

[KeithStone53151]

NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction

 

Brewers - 89

Cardinals - 87

Reds - 86

Cubs - 78

Pirates - 61

[sveumrules]

MIL 88

CHI 87

STL 86

CIN 83

PIT 61

[KeithStone53151]

PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...

 

They nailed it last year, but if I remember correctly ZIPs and Steamer were substantially off. As was PECOTA in 2018.

 

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS, and not PREDICTIONS.

 

Fixed

[ewitkows]

Brewers 90

Cards 87

Reds 82

Cubs 80

Pirates 65

[KeithStone53151]

The most hilarious thing about these "projections" is that Pecota came up with scenarios where the Pirates win what looks like 90 games. How much can I bet on the under for 90 wins?

[Lathund]

PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...

 

They nailed it last year, but if I remember correctly ZIPs and Steamer were substantially off. As was PECOTA in 2018.

 

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS, and not PREDICTIONS.

 

Fixed

 

 

The most hilarious thing about these "projections" is that Pecota came up with scenarios where the Pirates win what looks like 90 games. How much can I bet on the under for 90 wins?

 

Honestly I don't know what's so hilarious about there being what looks like a 1/1000 (or 0.1%) chance of them winning 90 games. If the Pirates have a lot of guys play to their 90th percentile projections, unexpected contributions from NRIs and prospects, the rest of the division has players underperform, the Pirates get lucky with sequencing etc. then yeah they could get that kind of record. It's so extremely unlikely, hence the 1/1000 likelyhood. But it's not impossible. Most people just struggle with probabilistic reasoning, hence a lot of the misunderstandings about projections.

 

Projections are also far from random number generators. They will always struggle to accurately project team records, because even if they are completely spot on about every players level of performance (And individual performance is what they do; team performance is essentially just adding them up), team projections could still be way off due to injuries, playing time, trades (Trades alone are a big reason why the best teams always win more than projected and the worst teams win fewer games. That's in addition to the inherent conservatism) and sequencing.

[Lathund]

It's almost impossible to predict the division for me tbh. I expect a bloodbath with 4 teams between like 88 and 82 wins. They could be in any order and it wouldn't be at all surprising.

 

Brewers 86

Cubs 86

Reds 84

Cardinals 82

Pirates 68

[Roderick]

Reds 86

Cards 86

Cubs 86

Brew 80

Pirates 72

[tmwiese55]

Vegas Win totals below. Keep in mind there would be slight variation site to site or casino to casino. I saw this in Iowa a week or two back and I want to say STL/CHC/CIN were all essentially the same(lumped even closer than the 3 game difference here). They did not have division odds up at the time, only AL NL WS.

 

STL 88

Cubs 86

Reds 85

MKE 83

[jjgott]

STL 91

CHI 90

CIN 84

MKE 73

PIT 66

[Fear The Chorizo]

With the perceived parity amongst the top 4 NL central clubs, there just won't be enough wins to go around between them to all wind up over 0.500. Particularly because I feel the combination of the Dodgers and a pretty strong NL east aren't going to provide easy wins outside the division to inflate the NL Central clubs in the standings.

 

Between the Brewers, Cards, Cubs, and Reds, the 2 healthiest clubs across the season probably wind up winning 86-94 games and the two unhealthiest clubs likely finish at or below 0.500. The Reds get the biggest bump in the standings due to their offseason and recent trades, however I feel like their record has the most uncertainty even without factoring injuries. Basically these projections reflect the fact that the perceived best rosters in the division (Cubs and Cards) have gone backwards this offseason, while the Reds have improved and the Brewers overall have treaded water to what their 2019 outlook resembled last February.

 

I'm going to be optimistic and say the Brewers stay healthy at key spots on their roster and finish as a 90 win ballclub, and they are one of the two NL Central clubs to outperform their early February wins projections, much like they've done over the past 3 seasons.

 

Brewers 90 wins Lots of moves that essentially reshuffle the deck and look to outproduce poor 2019 production from 3rd/1st. Full year of Hiura's bat paired with Yelich...very questionable rotation now anchored by Woodruff with intriguing bullpen depth. On paper, I think they're better than last season with less reliance on young starters at the MLB level who hadn't yet proved they belong.

 

Reds 87 wins All the moves look pretty good on paper, but their pen is still suspect and relying on Bauer to anchor a pitching staff is a gamble. Their defense could be keystone cops-esque at times.

 

Cards 80 wins I don't love their lineup, and at some point guys like Molina are falling off a cliff. Pitching is solid but thinner than usual if there are any injuries to the youngsters they leaned on heavily last year (Flaherty in particular)

 

Cubs 76 wins I'm guessing more moves are made by them before the season starts, potentially involving Bryant or Contreras. Still a talented roster, but really lacking quality depth and many of its most expensive players are on the wrong side of their primes. If they get off to a slow start I can see a firesale coming at this year's deadline

 

Pirates 64 wins really the only division team in full rebuild mode - they'll be interesting to track to see if players like Josh Bell become available via trade at the deadline.

 

It sure would be nice to have neither the Cubs or Cards be a postseason factor as the calendar rolls into September this year!

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Cubs 94

Reds 85

Brewers 80

Cardinals 78

Pirates 66

 

I think the top 4 teams can finish in any order and roughly that’s how the win totals get split between them. One hits 90+ two hit low-mid 80s and one sub 80 by a tick. I like the Cubs the most, they have the deepest and most talented offense, the top 4 SP are probably the most stable, we’ll see on the bullpen. I think the Cardinals significantly dropped off. The OF is bad, the rotation is older and questionable, the bullpen is also a question, the defense way outperformed last year. I think they fall hard. I really don’t know what to think of us other than we are a high variance team with significant downside. The Reds made solid moves but still don’t really have a star, lots of 1.5-3 win players on offense, if Suarez shoulder is messed up that’s a huge loss. Castellanos and Moustakas are both overrated, imo, to what they are thought of to where they end up WAR wise most years. Should be a fun year regardless.

[Soupbone]

Sorry but not feeling good about this at all. Too many questionable roster spots. Urias hurt.

STL 89

CHI 83

CIN 79

MKE 77

PIT 65

[MrTPlush]

The most hilarious thing about these "projections" is that Pecota came up with scenarios where the Pirates win what looks like 90 games. How much can I bet on the under for 90 wins?

 

It isn't hilarious if you understand anything about statistics.

 

That scenario involves every single player have the best possible year and being nearly 100% healthy. If you bet on under 90 wins your potential winnings would probably have to be paid out in half pennies.

 

The graph is cool and shows the perceived floor and ceiling. Also the likelihood off said ceiling. You can see the Cubs have much more scenarios that see them overperforming as their "ceiling tail" stays fatter a lot longer. I think those graphs are probably fairly accurate if you just ignore the numbers they represent. Kind of shows the volatility of each roster.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's too early I think to predict the Brewers since Lindblom is being inserted in to the staff from overseas. so I won't go there until some Spring Training appearances. The Cubs may change with a Bryant trade, another team to sit on til ST.

 

Reds 89 wins- They've obviously added to the team. Pitching you have to assume will be consistently less inconsistent.

Cardinals 82 wins- A team filled with below 800OPS bats and that wasn't improved on. One bigger pitching injury and it will crumble them, probably below 500.

 

Pirates(easiest to project) 58 wins They're a bad team this season who will only try to sell off to get worse in 2020 but better in 2022 or later.