When is the right time to trade Yellich?

[Jenkins5]

Simply as others have said, when this team isn’t competitive anymore. I love Yeli & hope he gets a monster deal but that won’t be here sadly. He still had time at a good price. Enjoy the the time we have. We will see how this season goes. I’m not confident in the way this team is constructed so maybe it is sooner than later but that’s just me. Window is closing and a rebuild is coming in the next 2-3 years. Yeli deal ending, Cain is aging, Braun is at end, and infield lacks any true future outside of Hiura. Starting pitching.... we shall see. By 2022 we need to reload. Hopefully by then the international may help, maybe some draft guys but yeah. Enjoy Yeli why we have him because he will finish his career somewhere else. DS isn’t paying that bill.

[rickh150]

Either after this season or next.... My guess is that they try to extend him to a 30 mil a year contract for another 4 years, though.

[MrTPlush]

I think the Braun contract would have been a fine overpay/bad deal had he not destroyed his image. The Brewers hadn't had a true franchise player in a long time. Braun was a HOF potential talent that they could be a modern day Yount figure. Having such a player can help put you on the map and excite an entire generation of fans that don't really connect with Yount. Once they had a chance to do that with a deal that was possible for a small market, they took it.

 

Of course he ruined his image in less than a year, then eventually got suspended, and then had his production start to become shaky with all the injuries. He really doesn't hold the post-career and off the field appeal they were banking on. The contract looked like a mistake before it even started.

 

I am sure they will pitch a similar extension to Yelich eventually, but him saying yes is likely reserved to your dreams.

[vetter]

Either after this season or next.... My guess is that they try to extend him to a 30 mil a year contract for another 4 years, though.

 

I mostly agree and I think this is pretty close to what Stearns is probably thinking. I could see it being closer to $32.5-$34 per year on 4 year contract. He did pay Grandal a very high AAV on a short one year deal. Wouldn't surprise me if he's very aggressive on a 4 year deal. I would be all for a 4 year extension at that AAV.

 

But if we get into 5 or more years on his contract and it averages $30M+, I think it's better we walk. My guess is he'll take a 6 or 7 year deal somewhere else.

 

But beyond Yelich's WAR, stats, analytics, future projections etc., one has to think that Attanasio is going to view the Yelich decision from more of a macro financial perspective. Yelich is really our only superstar, especially when Braun's name recognition is gone after he leaves. If he thinks retaining Yelich and perhaps overpaying him or extending him long term creates an ROI that makes business sense for the organization, then all bets are off.

[clancyphile]

Either after this season or next.... My guess is that they try to extend him to a 30 mil a year contract for another 4 years, though.

 

I mostly agree and I think this is pretty close to what Stearns is probably thinking. I could see it being closer to $32.5-$34 per year on 4 year contract. He did pay Grandal a very high AAV on a short one year deal. Wouldn't surprise me if he's very aggressive on a 4 year deal. I would be all for a 4 year extension at that AAV.

 

But if we get into 5 or more years on his contract and it averages $30M+, I think it's better we walk. My guess is he'll take a 6 or 7 year deal somewhere else.

 

But beyond Yelich's WAR, stats, analytics, future projections etc., one has to think that Attanasio is going to view the Yelich decision from more of a macro financial perspective. Yelich is really our only superstar, especially when Braun's name recognition is gone after he leaves. If he thinks retaining Yelich and perhaps overpaying him or extending him long term creates an ROI that makes business sense for the organization, then all bets are off.

 

Baseball is more than just analytics, projections, and stats. If it was just that, then the Oakland A's would have won it all in 2002, Ronnie Gideon and Cam Roegner would be on the cusp of the majors, and we could just turn over in-game decisions to a computer. It isn't.

 

That aside, even at a shorter term with a higher AAV, there would still be the need to address arby years for Urias and Hiura. We also have no idea what the 2021 CBA will do.

 

I think that we are also not accounting for the fact that the designated hitter will likely be adopted by the NL as well, possibly as soon as the 2021 CBA. That also is going to change the equation as well, and may make five, six, or seven years work.

 

I think keeping Yelich is possible, but I think the Brewers will have to use deferred money, probably on a Bonilla scale to make it work. To me, the big question is if Yelich will be okay with the Bonilla option.

[TJseven7]

Why would Yelich sign a 30 mil 4 year deal when he's 3 years from 40 mil per and 8 years? You can dream but to lock into 2 horrible deals for him back to back would take a special kind of dim on his agents part.

 

He'll hit FA with 1 shot to hit all the money. Betts and Yelich aren't going to give that up. You'd basically have to tear up 2 years 29 mil and offer him 40/7 in its place to have a shot. You'd have to roughly hit 50 mil per on the extension to shorten the deal by 2 years.

 

50 x 5 = 250 (paid as 40/7 which pays him to 36 years old)

40 x 6 = 240

40 x 7 = 280 (Rendon 1 year younger 35/7)

 

This is the type of deal he'd be gunning for and with reports that the Brewers aren't looking to sign long term deals beyond the CBA that idea is all but moot.

[vetter]

Why would Yelich sign a 30 mil 4 year deal when he's 3 years from 40 mil per and 8 years? You can dream but to lock into 2 horrible deals for him back to back would take a special kind of dim on his agents part.

 

He'll hit FA with 1 shot to hit all the money. Betts and Yelich aren't going to give that up. You'd basically have to tear up 2 years 29 mil and offer him 40/7 in its place to have a shot. You'd have to roughly hit 50 mil per on the extension to shorten the deal by 2 years.

 

50 x 5 = 250 (paid as 40/7 which pays him to 36 years old)

40 x 6 = 240

40 x 7 = 280 (Rendon 1 year younger 35/7)

 

This is the type of deal he'd be gunning for and with reports that the Brewers aren't looking to sign long term deals beyond the CBA that idea is all but moot.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that he would actually accept a four year offer. But that's probably the only offer that makes theoretical sense for the Brewers. Anything beyond age 35 at $30M-$35M (or more) for an aging player is most likely not going to bring a good enough return on the investment. Especially if he's extended out to late thirties. There's always going to be cheaper alternatives by that point of a player's career.

 

Granted, the NL could adopt the DH rule. And Yelich could certainly put up numbers akin to David Ortiz who in his late thirties was absolutely killing it all the way to age 40. But he is a major exception to the rule. Again, some ball clubs can take that gamble. If the contract pays off, great. And if not, it won't decimate the future of the team. The Brewers don't happen to fall into that category.

 

DS stated he wants to be competitive every year. And for a club like the Brewers, that can only really happen if they avoid the 7 year/$250M extensions to a 31 year old.

[TJseven7]

Why would Yelich sign a 30 mil 4 year deal when he's 3 years from 40 mil per and 8 years? You can dream but to lock into 2 horrible deals for him back to back would take a special kind of dim on his agents part.

 

He'll hit FA with 1 shot to hit all the money. Betts and Yelich aren't going to give that up. You'd basically have to tear up 2 years 29 mil and offer him 40/7 in its place to have a shot. You'd have to roughly hit 50 mil per on the extension to shorten the deal by 2 years.

 

50 x 5 = 250 (paid as 40/7 which pays him to 36 years old)

40 x 6 = 240

40 x 7 = 280 (Rendon 1 year younger 35/7)

 

This is the type of deal he'd be gunning for and with reports that the Brewers aren't looking to sign long term deals beyond the CBA that idea is all but moot.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that he would actually accept a four year offer. But that's probably the only offer that makes theoretical sense for the Brewers. Anything beyond age 35 at $30M-$35M (or more) for an aging player is most likely not going to bring a good enough return on the investment. Especially if he's extended out to late thirties. There's always going to be cheaper alternatives by that point of a player's career.

 

Granted, the NL could adopt the DH rule. And Yelich could certainly put up numbers akin to David Ortiz who in his late thirties was absolutely killing it all the way to age 40. But he is a major exception to the rule. Again, some ball clubs can take that gamble. If the contract pays off, great. And if not, it won't decimate the future of the team. The Brewers don't happen to fall into that category.

 

DS stated he wants to be competitive every year. And for a club like the Brewers, that can only really happen if they avoid the 7 year/$250M extensions to a 31 year old.

 

The false security of "well we can always play him at DH" is an awful way to approach the DH position. You want to home grow Santana types into that. You always want DH to be a prospect who fell off the Defensive scale at LF or 1b.

[BradWI]

So with the new deal, maybe in 4-5 years before he really starts to decline? They now get an extended window to “go for it”, a decent return when they trade him and you can always find a big market team who can afford the big $ years at the end of the deal when he isn’t quite as productive.

[KeithStone53151]

Might as well lock this thread and throw away the key...

[Warning Track Power]

Call me crazy but I think the Brewers and Yelich will stay married beyond 2022. I think Attanasio opens the checkbook for him.

 

You're crazy

Thank you

[mtrebs]

Imagine the prospects you could get for Yelich now that he’s signed to this favorable contract for nine seasons...

 

Ok, we can lock this now.

[Team Canada]

Best. Lock reason. Ever.