When is the right time to trade Yellich?

[TJseven7]

Ok so you are projecting him zero rest and zero injuries in the next 2 years. I see how you inflated that. That's clever and unrealistic.

 

Betts played 286 games the last 2 years. Yelich played 9 less. He played 136 in his 10.4 WAR year. Now that's a fun projection. Go on, inflate him too. Spoiler, no he didn't hit 13 WAR. Just 12.3.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ok so you are projecting him zero rest and zero injuries in the next 2 years. I see how you inflated that. That's clever and unrealistic.

 

Betts played 286 games the last 2 years. Yelich played 9 less. He played 136 in his 10.4 WAR year. Now that's a fun projection. Go on, inflate him too. Spoiler, no he didn't hit 13 WAR. Just 12.3.

 

The team acquiring him gets him for 162 games not 145 or 150. Why as the team with the best player do you give the other team a 10% discount? When has Wander Franco played 162 games in a year? I am coming from that the value of the prospect isn't being degraded for injuries or rest. What is to stop a team from not just moving Yelich to DH and play him 162 games a year there? Or at 1b? It should be a win in trade on the Brewers side valuing Yelich to 162 games and not 146. Proven vs projection in prospect.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Things we know to be true (facts):

 

- Yelich is a FA after the 2022 season

- The current CBA is set to expire after the 2021 season

 

Likely to be true (opinion):

- Yelich and Brewers won't agree to an extension before the CBA expires

 

What I *think* may happen this next offseason, is that some free agents may opt for 1 year deals for the 2021 season, if the belief is that there teams are budgeting for higher spending after the new CBA deal. If that ends up being the case, 2021 may be another "go for it" year for Stearns & Attanasio where they go after these types of FA's (like they did with Moose & Grandal) which could also explain why they are being more budget-conscious this offseason. After the dust settles with the new CBA and what the core of the team looks like at that point, that's where I see it most likely we would trade Yelich and Hader to retool the roster heading into the 2022 season.

[Jopal78]

Milwaukee's Top 5 for games played are:

 

1. Yount

2. Molitor

3. Gantner

4. Braun

5. Cooper

 

There's a reason that 4 of the top 5 in terms of games played are from nearly 30 years ago. The economic disparity between the clubs has increased, and players almost universally go to where they can make the most money. It's not unique situation and leads fan bases to essentially be rooting for laundry.

[clancyphile]

Milwaukee's Top 5 for games played are:

 

1. Yount

2. Molitor

3. Gantner

4. Braun

5. Cooper

 

There's a reason that 4 of the top 5 in terms of games played are from nearly 30 years ago. The economic disparity between the clubs has increased, and players almost universally go to where they can make the most money. It's not unique situation and leads fan bases to essentially be rooting for laundry.

 

Milwaukee needs to find some way to shift that dynamic.

 

Int he case of Yelich, I think something Bobby Bonilla-esque is probably the best option. Structure it right, and it's no worse than Braun's in that given year, and down the road, the amount involved would not be payroll-crippling.

[brewerfan82]

I would rather focus on getting the next 26-30 year old "Yelich", than sign Yelich to an extension that basically gets you a new 31-37 year old Ryan Braun at twice the amount we're paying 31-37 year old Ryan Braun right now. Unless you think Braun's unmovable contract the past few years has been an advantage to the team, I don't understand the want to unnecessarily extend an amazing Yelich contract into what will basically be what we're getting from Braun but will necessitate a ton more money and likely go even further into the decline of his career. If you can get a boatload of talent back for Yelich with one year remaining on his contract, you have to do it. Let some other team overpay for what Yelich did in the past with the Brewers.

[clancyphile]

I would rather focus on getting the next 26-30 year old "Yelich", than sign Yelich to an extension that basically gets you a new 31-37 year old Ryan Braun at twice the amount we're paying 31-37 year old Ryan Braun right now. Unless you think Braun's unmovable contract the past few years has been an advantage to the team, I don't understand the want to unnecessarily extend an amazing Yelich contract into what will basically be what we're getting from Braun but will necessitate a ton more money and likely go even further into the decline of his career. If you can get a boatload of talent back for Yelich with one year remaining on his contract, you have to do it. Let some other team overpay for what Yelich did in the past with the Brewers.

 

If the Crew is stuck in an either/or, then yes, you are right.

 

I think it could be very possible for the Brewers to avoid that either/or and be able to do both - and the Bobby Bonilla route is the way to do so. This and one other factor (the National League adopting the designated hitter) are going to make a Yelich extension much less worrisome/crippling than the Braun extension.

 

Let's assume that the Crew can get Yelich to agree to the following:

$15 million signing bonus (5$ million immediately, $5 million in 2021, $5 million in 2022)

2021: current deal + $5 million

2022: current deal + $5 million

2023: $25 million ($10 million deferred)

2024: $25 million ($10 million deferred)

2025: $30 million ($10 million deferred)

2026: $30 million ($10 million deferred)

2027: $30 million ($10 million deferred)

2028: $30 million ($12.5 million deferred)

2029: $30 million ($12.5 million deferred)

 

The deferred $75 million is paid out over 25 years starting in 2030.

 

If the DH is adopted, then Yelich can DH over the last three or four years of the deal, as a way to mitigate the decline in the field and maybe avoid/mitigate his back issues.

 

Braun's contract didn't keep the Crew from signing Cain and acquiring Yelich two years ago. I'm pretty sure this type of deal wouldn't prevent the Crew from getting the next 26-30 year-old Yelich.

[vetter]

I would rather focus on getting the next 26-30 year old "Yelich", than sign Yelich to an extension that basically gets you a new 31-37 year old Ryan Braun at twice the amount we're paying 31-37 year old Ryan Braun right now. Unless you think Braun's unmovable contract the past few years has been an advantage to the team, I don't understand the want to unnecessarily extend an amazing Yelich contract into what will basically be what we're getting from Braun but will necessitate a ton more money and likely go even further into the decline of his career. If you can get a boatload of talent back for Yelich with one year remaining on his contract, you have to do it. Let some other team overpay for what Yelich did in the past with the Brewers.

 

I agree with this 100%. And so far, many of Stearns' actions suggest this is how he's going to run the team.

 

For example, Yasmani Grandal. Stearns stated he was a priority to sign in the off season. No matter what Milwaukee offered him, Stearns ultimately went with a 27 year old over a 31 year old they would have presumably had to sign to age 35 to compete.

 

Grandal 2019 WAR-2.5

Narvaez 2019 WAR-2.1

 

Grandal salary 2020-$18,250,000

Narvaez salary 2020-$2,725,000

 

Still, it will be fundamentally difficult for a team like the Brewers to win a WS for this reason: There will always be teams that will extend long term contracts to capitalize on the 2-3 prime years a player has left on their career.

 

Take Yelich for example. An extension of, say, 7 years/$225M will probably give you 2-3 more prime years of Yelich. But can a team like the Brewers survive when they're taking a bath on the remaining four years of his contract and his production is merely average?

 

Now take big market teams like the Astros, Nationals, Dodgers, Yankees, etc. They have the luxury of signing a Yelich type superstar to a major extension so they can enjoy a handful of prime years without the end of his contract sinking the team. I realize that the major FA signings/extensions are only one aspect of building a team, but that aspect does not favor Milwaukee.

[clancyphile]

I would rather focus on getting the next 26-30 year old "Yelich", than sign Yelich to an extension that basically gets you a new 31-37 year old Ryan Braun at twice the amount we're paying 31-37 year old Ryan Braun right now. Unless you think Braun's unmovable contract the past few years has been an advantage to the team, I don't understand the want to unnecessarily extend an amazing Yelich contract into what will basically be what we're getting from Braun but will necessitate a ton more money and likely go even further into the decline of his career. If you can get a boatload of talent back for Yelich with one year remaining on his contract, you have to do it. Let some other team overpay for what Yelich did in the past with the Brewers.

 

I agree with this 100%. And so far, many of Stearns' actions suggest this is how he's going to run the team.

 

For example, Yasmani Grandal. Stearns stated he was a priority to sign in the off season. No matter what Milwaukee offered him, Stearns ultimately went with a 27 year old over a 31 year old they would have presumably had to sign to age 35 to compete.

 

Grandal 2019 WAR-2.5

Narvaez 2019 WAR-2.1

 

Grandal salary 2020-$18,250,000

Narvaez salary 2020-$2,725,000

 

Still, it will be fundamentally difficult for a team like the Brewers to win a WS for this reason: There will always be teams that will extend long term contracts to capitalize on the 2-3 prime years a player has left on their career.

 

Take Yelich for example. An extension of, say, 7 years/$225M will probably give you 2-3 more prime years of Yelich. But can a team like the Brewers survive when they're taking a bath on the remaining four years of his contract and his production is merely average?

 

I think the big question is, "Would Yelich agree to defer money?"

 

7/$225 million could be survivable for the Brewers.

 

$10 million bonus divided equally between 2021 and 2022.

$75 million deferred to be paid out over 25 years starting at the end of the contract. ($3 million/year starting in 2030)

That makes the 2023-2029 annual payout an average of $20 million.

 

When you account for inflation, roughly akin to the Braun deal. And in January 2018 the Braun deal did not stop the Crew from acquiring Yelich and signing LoCain. The next year, it didn't prevent bringing back Moustakas and signing Grandal.

 

The only question is if Yelich would accept that much deferred money.

[MrTPlush]

Just because the Braun contract didn't cause the Brewers to go bankrupt and dissolve doesn't mean it was a good idea or that we should do it once again.

[vetter]

I would rather focus on getting the next 26-30 year old "Yelich", than sign Yelich to an extension that basically gets you a new 31-37 year old Ryan Braun at twice the amount we're paying 31-37 year old Ryan Braun right now. Unless you think Braun's unmovable contract the past few years has been an advantage to the team, I don't understand the want to unnecessarily extend an amazing Yelich contract into what will basically be what we're getting from Braun but will necessitate a ton more money and likely go even further into the decline of his career. If you can get a boatload of talent back for Yelich with one year remaining on his contract, you have to do it. Let some other team overpay for what Yelich did in the past with the Brewers.

 

I agree with this 100%. And so far, many of Stearns' actions suggest this is how he's going to run the team.

 

For example, Yasmani Grandal. Stearns stated he was a priority to sign in the off season. No matter what Milwaukee offered him, Stearns ultimately went with a 27 year old over a 31 year old they would have presumably had to sign to age 35 to compete.

 

Grandal 2019 WAR-2.5

Narvaez 2019 WAR-2.1

 

Grandal salary 2020-$18,250,000

Narvaez salary 2020-$2,725,000

 

Still, it will be fundamentally difficult for a team like the Brewers to win a WS for this reason: There will always be teams that will extend long term contracts to capitalize on the 2-3 prime years a player has left on their career.

 

Take Yelich for example. An extension of, say, 7 years/$225M will probably give you 2-3 more prime years of Yelich. But can a team like the Brewers survive when they're taking a bath on the remaining four years of his contract and his production is merely average?

 

I think the big question is, "Would Yelich agree to defer money?"

 

7/$225 million could be survivable for the Brewers.

 

$10 million bonus divided equally between 2021 and 2022.

$75 million deferred to be paid out over 25 years starting at the end of the contract. ($3 million/year starting in 2030)

That makes the 2023-2029 annual payout an average of $20 million.

 

When you account for inflation, roughly akin to the Braun deal. And in January 2018 the Braun deal did not stop the Crew from acquiring Yelich and signing LoCain. The next year, it didn't prevent bringing back Moustakas and signing Grandal.

 

The only question is if Yelich would accept that much deferred money.

 

Still, 7/$225M was merely speculative on my part. Rendon received 7/$245M and who's to say someone doesn't throw out 7/$275M for Yelich or an even longer contract?

 

Even if we're splitting hairs, to your point, I really don't think Yelich would need need to settle for deferred money if he signs with another suitor. There should be enough teams that can pay him as competitively as Milwaukee without deferring.

 

Having said that, the only reason I could possibly see him wanting to stay with the Brewers is if he's so in love with the team or Milwaukee. Or if he feels he stands the best chance of winning here. We're not Yelich so it's impossible to tell.

 

But beyond that, Stearns seems to always have a number in his head that he's willing to offer. And he's very disciplined to walk away if that doesn't align. I think in this case there will be too much of a discrepancy between what Yelich feels he can receive on the open market vs. what Stearns would be willing to offer. Melvin I could see. But I think Stearns has shown, in general, he's fundamentally more risk adverse to long term contracts with aging players, i.e. Grandal and Moose. Cain so far has been the exception. But that's only 5/$80M. Not chump change but nowhere near the level that the elite players have been demanding (Cole, Trout, Rendon, Harper, etc.).

[Austin Tatious]

This time next year, you tear up the last two years and offer him 7 for $210. He's a great fit here and both sides love the relationship. Braun is coming off the books and a top 3 position player in the game is a different beast than a one year catcher. He's a face of the franchise. You realize the importance of that type of guy to your fan base.

 

All the black hat thinkers out there can mock me all they want, but that is my take on what we are planning.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's so odd to me that people are clamoring to pay 35 y/o Yelich $30 million a year like it's nothing. Even if Yelich wanted to sign in MKE long term, the back end of that deal is probably not a good deal for the Brewers in even the best of circumstances.

 

If this team is truly going to be run as well as it needs to be to compete, and as well as it has been for a few years, there's no reason they need Yelich five years from now. They're going to have to hit on way more than that.

 

The whole conversation is just a bit strange, mostly because this is a player essentially signing his last deal. I would understand it way more if he were going into FA at 25, but he's not.

[reillymcshane]

The right time to trade Yelich is if you when the club feels it cannot contend for a playoff spot. This is especially true if the team thinks they are more than one season away from contending. A great player is wasted when he makes a 70-win team a 75-win team.

 

The Brewers have Yelich under control through 2022. Three more years. Thus, the Brewers have to make honest assessments of their situation each year at the deadline, and each off season. If, for instance, the Brewers go in the tank this year, and at the deadline (or after the season) the club's braintrust determine we are 2-3 years from being a decent club, well that is the time to make a move. Otherwise, as long as we are fighting for the playoffs, keep the guy as long as possible. He's a huge difference maker.

 

All this changes if the Brewers sign Yelich to an extension - but we won't go there in this post. Just keeping it to the original thread question.

[brewerfan82]

This time next year, you tear up the last two years and offer him 7 for $210. He's a great fit here and both sides love the relationship. Braun is coming off the books and a top 3 position player in the game is a different beast than a one year catcher. He's a face of the franchise. You realize the importance of that type of guy to your fan base.

 

All the black hat thinkers out there can mock me all they want, but that is my take on what we are planning.

So that basically means it's a 5 year / $181M extension for his age 31-35 years. $36.2M per year is a lot for Milwaukee especially for a player on the wrong side of 30, but it's still on the verge of tempting at that price and years. Conversely, no way Yelich takes that and then becomes a free agent again at age 36. He's going to break bank on a deal that takes him through the majority of his 30s.

 

Nothing's going to beat the 3 year / $41.5M deal we have him on right now through his prime years. And if you make that 2 years / $26.5M plus whatever another team is willing to unload for that final year, I don't think you're going to have a better outcome. Stearns hit the lottery when he got Yelich for the cost/contract/years/age he got him and that all goes away once he hits 31 and starts making $35M+ per year.

[Jopal78]

This could derail this whole topic but it always kind of bothers me when people dog Ryan Braun's contract. Pound for Pound he the best player the Brewers have ever had.

 

2007-2012 he hit .313/.374/.568 with 202 homeruns, 223 2Bs, 29 3Bs and 126 stolen bases.

...admittedly had two lost seasons with the combination hand injury and PED suspension (yet his numbers were still above average) but since then....

2015-2019 he's hit .281/.345/.502 with 114 homeruns, 134 2Bs, 11 3Bs and 79 stolen bases and this despite being ages 31-35.

On top of that he's never been amongst the top 25 highest paid players in the game. Sure there might be players someone would have rather had in 2017 for 20 million dollars instead of Ryan Braun, or you can argue there are tons of players who could put up a 0.9 WAR in 2018 for less than 20 million dollars. But I don't think you can say he has not earned or deserved every penny of the contract he signed; and I'll always be grateful that such a great player hung around in Milwaukee for the virtually the entire career.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Braun's deal hasn't been terrible. There have been much worse, and he's probably going to play it out without ever veering far from being an .800ish OPS player. He's also just an extremely popular player that was the only guy any casual fan knew for a couple seasons. He's got his stamp on a lot of big moments.

 

That said, it doesn't make life for MKE easier when you have 1.5 WAR OF making $20 million. Once that option is burned out I'd have no issues with him wanting to hang around a couple years for little money, if he wants to. He's a weird player. If he plays in 2020 like he did in 2019, he's not going to have trouble finding a team.

 

It's reasonable to say the contract was OK, not disastrous, but not want to do it again with Yelich.

[3and2Fastball]

The Braun deal really wasn’t bad at all, in a vacuum. The only reason it could be thought of as a “bad deal” is in the context of not allowing the Brewers the flexibility to spend that money on a player or players who might’ve ended up being more valuable than Braun

[MrTPlush]

Jopal, your data is kind of inflated because you decided to start with 2015...which had nothing to do with the current contract. Not sure why you did that. If you want to make an argument of why it wasn’t that bad using 2016-Present would make sense. He has barely average 2 WAR in 4 years. Half of his WAR in those 4 years was in the first year. The last three simply have not been that great.

 

Look, there isn’t any need to sugar coat it. It wasn’t a good idea and ended up predictably bad. People should not want to repeat the same exact mistake again with Yelich. Let some other team take that reckless risk of giving him a big contract in his 30s.

[Jopal78]

Jopal, your data is kind of inflated because you decided to start with 2015...which had nothing to do with the current contract. Not sure why you did that. If you want to make an argument of why it wasn’t that bad using 2016-Present would make sense. He has barely average 2 WAR in 4 years. Half of his WAR in those 4 years was in the first year. The last three simply have not been that great.

 

Look, there isn’t any need to sugar coat it. It wasn’t a good idea and ended up predictably bad. People should not want to repeat the same exact mistake again with Yelich. Let some other team take that reckless risk of giving him a big contract in his 30s.

 

I think I explained that Braun had two lost seasons due to injury and suspension. They happened to be 2013 and 2014 so I left them out. To your point, Braun wasn’t paid during his suspension so whatever he did get paid in 2013 was a bargain for 2.0 across 60+ games.

 

2014 it’s fairly well documented he had a nerve injury in his hand and was playing through it, like Cain in ‘19 at far less than 100%.

[superfly]

I don’t think Yelich is going anywhere absent an ungodly FA contract. Especially with how cheap Stearns is, it would be easy to maneuver a Yelich deal long term. Name value alone, he is the one guy that the nation thinks of when they think of milwaukee. That is very marketable especially for things like tv deals, national tv baseball games, etc. He’s just too talented to willingly allow him to leave...retire him a Brewer.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t think Yelich is going anywhere absent an ungodly FA contract. Especially with how cheap Stearns is, it would be easy to maneuver a Yelich deal long term. Name value alone, he is the one guy that the nation thinks of when they think of milwaukee. That is very marketable especially for things like tv deals, national tv baseball games, etc. He’s just too talented to willingly allow him to leave...retire him a Brewer.

 

That was the same logic used for Braun. Didn’t work out.

 

Yelich is pretty irrelevant to TV deals I would think. He alone does not put us on national TV by himself either...you have to be a good baseball team. A good part of his national attention is because we are good right now.

 

I’m not sure how Stearns can be regarded as cheap and hand out a mega deal at the same time.

[mtrebs]

I would have rather the Brewers spent $30 million per season on an ace or a stud position player during the time we have Yelich to better our chances or winning a World Series. I don't feel that the Brewers are doing enough to take advantage of the time we have him here. Instead they are counting on a bunch of buy-low deals and hope for career years. The likelihood of that happening isn't that great, so we'll stay competitive but never be good enough to win it all.

 

This is similar to the Packers approach ever since the Super Bowl XLV. Rodgers makes up for a lot of shortcomings, but that only can get them so far. When they play truly great opponents they are just outmatched.

[adambr2]

Jopal, your data is kind of inflated because you decided to start with 2015...which had nothing to do with the current contract. Not sure why you did that. If you want to make an argument of why it wasn’t that bad using 2016-Present would make sense. He has barely average 2 WAR in 4 years. Half of his WAR in those 4 years was in the first year. The last three simply have not been that great.

 

Look, there isn’t any need to sugar coat it. It wasn’t a good idea and ended up predictably bad. People should not want to repeat the same exact mistake again with Yelich. Let some other team take that reckless risk of giving him a big contract in his 30s.

 

I think I explained that Braun had two lost seasons due to injury and suspension. They happened to be 2013 and 2014 so I left them out. To your point, Braun wasn’t paid during his suspension so whatever he did get paid in 2013 was a bargain for 2.0 across 60+ games.

 

2014 it’s fairly well documented he had a nerve injury in his hand and was playing through it, like Cain in ‘19 at far less than 100%.

 

He still had 580 plate appearances in 2014. The production still counts for what it is. It can be noted that he played through an injury, but just like Cain last year, that production still affected our overall team performance and can't just be disregard.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This could derail this whole topic but it always kind of bothers me when people dog Ryan Braun's contract. Pound for Pound he the best player the Brewers have ever had.

 

2007-2012 he hit .313/.374/.568 with 202 homeruns, 223 2Bs, 29 3Bs and 126 stolen bases.

...admittedly had two lost seasons with the combination hand injury and PED suspension (yet his numbers were still above average) but since then....

2015-2019 he's hit .281/.345/.502 with 114 homeruns, 134 2Bs, 11 3Bs and 79 stolen bases and this despite being ages 31-35.

On top of that he's never been amongst the top 25 highest paid players in the game. Sure there might be players someone would have rather had in 2017 for 20 million dollars instead of Ryan Braun, or you can argue there are tons of players who could put up a 0.9 WAR in 2018 for less than 20 million dollars. But I don't think you can say he has not earned or deserved every penny of the contract he signed; and I'll always be grateful that such a great player hung around in Milwaukee for the virtually the entire career.

 

Generally agreed, but they also paid him in recent years largely for past performance when he was making peanuts and putting up rookie of the year and mvp level numbers. To me th downside of the deal was losing 2 full years of his prime at below market value prices when he dealt with the hand/thumb issue and his suspension in 2013. Knowing that if they didnt extend him when they did, he wouldn't have been around the past 3-4 seasons makes the deal worth it, imo. He's still a good player and the deal hasn't crippled the organization from making other moves.