When is the right time to trade Yellich?

[RollieTime]

I expect Stearns to do quite similar to this. Trade Yelich for another young stud like Verdugo plus some more. I mean Verdugo is arguably a 4+ WAR player potential himself...that certainly lightens the load of losing Yelich. Trade a year of Yelich for 5/6 of someone else.

 

Yah it hurts you for a single year...but helps you exponentially for 4/5 after that. People can mention the Fielder situation, but they were looking to go all-in on 2011...to a severe extent. I highly doubt Stearns is going to sell the farm next offseason and sign a bunch of guys to make a singular great team. If Yelich is here in 2022 it is the working of Mark Attanasio, that is absolutely the only way in my mind.

 

This is basically where I am. You offer Yelich a big contract like 6/$180 million. If he has no interest in signing an extension, you look to trade him with 1 year left. This was quite the haul for Boston who attached a bad contract with Betts and is also almost twice as expensive as Yelich will be in his final season under contract. If we could get 5 years of Verdugo plus a couple other highly regarded guys in the upper minors for one season of Yelich, I would hop all over that.

 

Holding onto Yelich through the final season is what would set an organization like the Brewers back by not bringing in the type of talent they could get for one year of a player and just riding it out. Verdugo would really help ease the blow as he’s a middle of the order bat himself with probably multiple all-star appearances on the horizon that would still be cheap for 2 more seasons. 2 seasons of an all-star caliber outfielder making the minimum, with 5 years total of control, while also opening up $15 million to be spent on other improvements to the roster? Not too shabby.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Again though, how can you say holding on to him holds the Brewers back, if they are in contention? Should the Brewers have traded Prince Fielder in 2011? You would have traded Yelich if he was entering FA in 2018? It's just not as simple as "small market must trade." With the way they have been playing the last three seasons, there IS a tangible value in hanging on to him for another season. I really don't want to punt on a playoff appearance if he is the difference. I'd rather just ride it out.

[Warning Track Power]

This is basically where I am. You offer Yelich a big contract like 6/$180 million. If he has no interest in signing an extension, you look to trade him with 1 year left.

If I am Attanasio, I go to Yelich and say we want you in Milwaukee but you know we cannot afford 10 years $300 million like Machado or Harper. However, we can at least match their AAV if you're interested. You're under contract for another 3 years $41.5m ($13.8m AAV) now but what if we added another $150m and extended your contract by 3 years? We'll begin paying you on that $150m immediately and essentially turn your existing deal into a 6 years $191.5 million ($31.9) deal?

 

If he turns it down, then Stearns knows what has to be done.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm sure they'll try something like that but it just makes no sense if you're him. He would already probably have a problem if he were going into FA even 2 years older than he will be. If he takes something like that from MKE he is giving away millions of dollars that he'll make somewhere else on the back end of a deal once his production has tanked (most likely).

[MrTPlush]

It makes no sense for the Brewers either. His incredible value is while he is cheap.

[homer]

I bet they make an offer that seems huge but will end up getting dwarfed by what he actually receives.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Well it does make sense for the Brewers, maybe not at that figure, but something where they pay him more now and buy up the cheapness. He can still have incredible value for the Brewers at a significantly higher rate. I just don't see it happening because he already did it once for the Marlins, then sat back and watched other guys sign for $300 million. I don't care how rich he already is, there's no way that doesn't bother him on some level.

[RollieTime]

Again though, how can you say holding on to him holds the Brewers back, if they are in contention? Should the Brewers have traded Prince Fielder in 2011? You would have traded Yelich if he was entering FA in 2018? It's just not as simple as "small market must trade." With the way they have been playing the last three seasons, there IS a tangible value in hanging on to him for another season. I really don't want to punt on a playoff appearance if he is the difference. I'd rather just ride it out.

 

Depends if you want the instant gratification of (possibly) making the postseason one more time with Yelich and only receiving a comp pick or looking long term by bringing in a 4 WAR outfielder for 5 years to replace him with other quality prospects coming along that are in the upper minors. Not saying that Verdugo is on Yelich’s level, but bringing him in sure isn’t waving the white flag for a rebuild. So I guess to answer you, yes I would punt on the postseason for 1 year (IF we even missed the postseason) to get 5 years of Verdugo. But don’t forget that the $15 million saved could be used to bring in another impact bat to pair in the lineup with Verdugo, Hiura, Urias plus whoever else we have on the roster at that point.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm sure they'll try something like that but it just makes no sense if you're him. He would already probably have a problem if he were going into FA even 2 years older than he will be. If he takes something like that from MKE he is giving away millions of dollars that he'll make somewhere else on the back end of a deal once his production has tanked (most likely).

See this is where I really struggle if I were Yelich. He will be just completing his age 30 season when he is a free agent. Off the top of my head and without doing the research, it seems like that is no longer a viable age for massive contracts. Was Pujols the last mega-deal for someone that age? If so, that deal was almost a full decade ago in 2012.

 

I have to believe he may consider locking into something that adds new money and extends the contract by a few years with the Brewers.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Again though, how can you say holding on to him holds the Brewers back, if they are in contention? Should the Brewers have traded Prince Fielder in 2011? You would have traded Yelich if he was entering FA in 2018? It's just not as simple as "small market must trade." With the way they have been playing the last three seasons, there IS a tangible value in hanging on to him for another season. I really don't want to punt on a playoff appearance if he is the difference. I'd rather just ride it out.

 

Depends if you want the instant gratification of (possibly) making the postseason one more time with Yelich and only receiving a comp pick or looking long term by bringing in a 4 WAR outfielder for 5 years to replace him with other quality prospects coming along that are in the upper minors. Not saying that Verdugo is on Yelich’s level, but bringing him in sure isn’t waving the white flag for a rebuild. So I guess to answer you, yes I would punt on the postseason for 1 year (IF we even missed the postseason) to get 5 years of Verdugo. But don’t forget that the $15 million saved could be used to bring in another impact bat to pair in the lineup with Verdugo, Hiura, Urias plus whoever else we have on the roster at that point.

 

The reason it's more complicated than "you have to trade an expiring contract" is because it's so difficult to even make the postseason in baseball, and once you do, anybody really can emerge and win the WS. It's hard for me to punt on a season you're in to hope that some guys put it together again and get you back. It's one thing if they're not confident in the roster in December but if the team is playing well I just can't see them giving that away.

[TJseven7]

I immediately thought never. You just keep him and get the QO pick. We've got our value out of him.

 

But then looking at Verdugo, a top 50 prospect and 29 mil of cap savings makes me wonder if 1 year of Yelich nets 2 top 50 prospects and a top 100. That's pretty interesting for 1 year of the 5 when we gave up that much for the other 4 we had. Maybe Yelich Cain (if Cain flames out) for 2 top 50 prospects and a top 150.

 

I want to say keep him all 3 years and then just take the QO pick. This deal made me wonder.

Brinson Harrison Diaz Yamamoto for 4 years of Yelich

Verdugo Gasterol and a top 150 for 1 year of Yelich

 

Makes a lot of sense. Would basically be getting 4 years of Yelich for Harrison straight up.

[benji]

To me if Corey Ray would have worked out I think we could trade at the end of this year. Now I think we should wait until the end of 2021 and see what the new CBA brings.

 

 

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[vetter]

Zero chance the Brewers extend Yelich under Stearns' watch. And it will end up being a win/win for both sides:

 

A). Stearns will not commit to the lucrative multi-year AAV it would take to lock in Yelich-that has never been his MO. He is all about value. He gambles on bounce back prospects for little money. He signs high AAV deals but for short terms (Moose and Grandal). Of course, the one exception is Lorenzo Cain. But for a small market like Milwaukee, it's ludicrous to compare his $16M AAV to the $30M+ AAV that Yelich can expect. If this were DM, there's a fighting chance this could be Ryan Braun all over again. But that's the fundamental difference between DM and DS.

 

B). Stearns understands the law of diminishing return on an aging player. Again, how do the Brewers justify paying the absurd amount of money it will take to lock in Yelich when he's going into age 31 or so just because his last name is Yelich? They realize his WAR will begin dropping accordingly. That's what happens. Once again, there are teams that can pay what it takes but the Brewers don't happen to be one of them.

 

C). When it comes down to money, Yelich knows he can simply make more of it elsewhere. Simple economics of baseball. So unless he truly believes he has the best chance of winning a WS with Milwaukee and can get paid the same as a Dodgers, Nationals, etc., there's no benefit to him in staying.

 

The solution and ultimate outcome: As others have said, Yelich gets traded in the 2021/2022 time frame.

 

Yelich wins because he gets traded while he's still in his prime. There's teams that will pay him crazy amounts of money to capitalize on the 2 or so prime years he has left at that point (i.e. Reds-Moose for 4 years at age 31 and White Sox-Grandal 4 years at age 31).

 

Brewers win because they sell high and stock up rather than ultimately losing him to free agency.

 

The only scenario I see the Brewers retaining Yelich is if he craters so substantially over the next two years and his value plummets to the point that they're willing to take a long term risk on him as a bounce back prospect.

[TJseven7]

A). Stearns will not commit to the lucrative multi-year AAV it would take to lock in Yelich-that has never been his MO. He is all about value. He gambles on bounce back prospects for little money. He signs high AAV deals but for short terms (Moose and Grandal). Of course, the one exception is Lorenzo Cain. But for a small market like Milwaukee, it's ludicrous to compare his $16M AAV to the $30M+ AAV that Yelich can expect. If this were DM, there's a fighting chance this could be Ryan Braun all over again. But that's the fundamental difference between DM and DS.

 

Even Cain only got 80 mil. Yelich is looking at what 320 over 8? Cain's defensive value, being an up the middle player, really appeals to DS. He was worth roughly 40 mil (so would say 46) his 1st year. Even in year 2 where his offense fell off a cliff he was still worth 7.5 mil (some would say 12) and won a GG. If his offense rebounds at all it's not hard to see him blowing past that 80 mil contract. If his offense stays in the tank his defense is worth money and CF is a tough position.

 

Yelich in RF is not a high level defensive concern. He's not adding to his value (much) there.

 

Cain makes a lot more sense to DS than Yelich on a long term deal.

[TURBO]

So we get to look forward to this topic being drug through the mud another 2 years.

 

joy.

[TJseven7]

So we get to look forward to this topic being drug through the mud another 2 years.

 

joy.

 

Maybe if we agree now we can drop it until the 2022 off season.

[clancyphile]

I'm sure they'll try something like that but it just makes no sense if you're him. He would already probably have a problem if he were going into FA even 2 years older than he will be. If he takes something like that from MKE he is giving away millions of dollars that he'll make somewhere else on the back end of a deal once his production has tanked (most likely).

 

What about a Bobby Bonilla-type arrangement?

 

Attanasio goes to Yelich, says, we want you in Milwaukee, you love playing here. We both know that the Milwaukee Brewers can't afford to pay $30 million a year.

 

However, what about a 7-year, $220 million extension? There would be a $5 million bonus, and $75 million would be deferred over the 25 years after the deal. The remaining $130 million comes out to a LoCain-ish (adjusted for inflation) $18.57 million per year.

 

The Brewers win by having Yelich for seven more years and he retires a Brewer. Yelich wins financial security down the road, and gets his mega-deal.

[PeaveyFury]

So we get to look forward to this topic being drug through the mud another 2 years.

 

joy.

 

I mean, it's not like you're required to click on every thread until then.

[vetter]

I'm sure they'll try something like that but it just makes no sense if you're him. He would already probably have a problem if he were going into FA even 2 years older than he will be. If he takes something like that from MKE he is giving away millions of dollars that he'll make somewhere else on the back end of a deal once his production has tanked (most likely).

 

What about a Bobby Bonilla-type arrangement?

 

Attanasio goes to Yelich, says, we want you in Milwaukee, you love playing here. We both know that the Milwaukee Brewers can't afford to pay $30 million a year.

 

However, what about a 7-year, $220 million extension? There would be a $5 million bonus, and $75 million would be deferred over the 25 years after the deal. The remaining $130 million comes out to a LoCain-ish (adjusted for inflation) $18.57 million per year.

 

The Brewers win by having Yelich for seven more years and he retires a Brewer. Yelich wins financial security down the road, and gets his mega-deal.

 

I get that Yelich has been godlike the past two years for Milwaukee and knock on wood he continues that trend while he's here. But seriously, why extend someone to his late thirties with that type of money when he ends up below replacement level well before his contract is over? Deferred or not, to me that's just a profligate way to spend money. Cain is 33 years old and has 3 years left on his contract. GG award aside, many are already starting to view the remaining years of his contract as a liability and he's paid nowhere near what Yelich would be making at the same point in their career.

 

Braun is another example of someone who got the mega extension at his peak. His WAR dropped from 4.4 in 2016 at age 32 to 1.2 in 2017 (33), 1.1 in 2018 (34), and 1.8 in 2019 (35). Not to say Yelich is doomed to repeat those numbers exactly, but I see no reason to pay him absurd money beyond two years of his current contract. Someone probably will but I hope it's not the Brewers.

 

And yes, the back issues are very alarming when you start to consider a long term contract extension to his late thirties.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think Stearns really has a clearly identifiable M.O. He hasn't been in the job long enough for people to make those broad claims. He's paid a lot of money for Cain, Grandal and Moose. He shipped high-ranked prospects for win-now players. They allegedly made an offer for Yu Darvish. They're not going to pay $400 million for Yelich but I don't think you can say he has a "way" of doing things just because they seek out value a lot.

[TJseven7]

I get that Yelich has been godlike the past two years for Milwaukee and knock on wood he continues that trend while he's here. But seriously, why extend someone to his late thirties with that type of money when he ends up below replacement level well before his contract is over? Deferred or not, to me that's just a profligate way to spend money. Cain is 33 years old and has 3 years left on his contract. GG award aside, many are already starting to view the remaining years of his contract as a liability and he's paid nowhere near what Yelich would be making at the same point in their career.

 

Braun is another example of someone who got the mega extension at his peak. His WAR dropped from 4.4 in 2016 at age 32 to 1.2 in 2017 (33), 1.1 in 2018 (34), and 1.8 in 2019 (35). Not to say Yelich is doomed to repeat those numbers exactly, but I see no reason to pay him absurd money beyond two years of his current contract. Someone probably will but I hope it's not the Brewers.

 

I think people need to, well, come to grips with the fact that this team isn't going to be run like most teams are in this league. Not as long as they are mid market. Not as long as DS is here.

 

It's amazing to have Yelich on this team. I mean the MVP level he exploded to after that deal is amazing.

 

But imagine if MKE could deal Brinson Harrison Diaz Yamamoto.

Use Yelich for 4 years. 43.25 million dollars and an estimated +220 mil in surplus value.

And trade Yelich for Brinson and Harrison level guys while dumping the 18mil 5th year of Cain on a team.

 

You'd be 4 years of Yelich for Diaz in the end. That would be one of the best trades in history.

 

Or we can pay him 1/3rd of our payroll. That's not possible and after the 1st 4 years the next 4 could plunge this team into darkness for multiple years.

 

I think the Betts deal just showed us the future of Yelich.

[vetter]

I get that Yelich has been godlike the past two years for Milwaukee and knock on wood he continues that trend while he's here. But seriously, why extend someone to his late thirties with that type of money when he ends up below replacement level well before his contract is over? Deferred or not, to me that's just a profligate way to spend money. Cain is 33 years old and has 3 years left on his contract. GG award aside, many are already starting to view the remaining years of his contract as a liability and he's paid nowhere near what Yelich would be making at the same point in their career.

 

Braun is another example of someone who got the mega extension at his peak. His WAR dropped from 4.4 in 2016 at age 32 to 1.2 in 2017 (33), 1.1 in 2018 (34), and 1.8 in 2019 (35). Not to say Yelich is doomed to repeat those numbers exactly, but I see no reason to pay him absurd money beyond two years of his current contract. Someone probably will but I hope it's not the Brewers.

 

I think people need to, well, come to grips with the fact that this team isn't going to be run like most teams are in this league. Not as long as they are mid market. Not as long as DS is here.

 

It's amazing to have Yelich on this team. I mean the MVP level he exploded to after that deal is amazing.

 

But imagine if MKE could deal Brinson Harrison Diaz Yamamoto.

Use Yelich for 4 years. 43.25 million dollars and an estimated +220 mil in surplus value.

And trade Yelich for Brinson and Harrison level guys while dumping the 18mil 5th year of Cain on a team.

 

You'd be 4 years of Yelich for Diaz in the end. That would be one of the best trades in history.

 

Or we can pay him 1/3rd of our payroll. That's not possible and after the 1st 4 years the next 4 could plunge this team into darkness for multiple years.

 

I think the Betts deal just showed us the future of Yelich.

 

Your analysis is spot on.

 

People really need to differentiate in their minds the 2018 and 2019 Yelich from 2026 and 2027 Yelich. Sure, no one knows how good or bad that will be, but time is never on a player's side.

 

Or for contrast, consider that Ryan Braun was paid $39M in 2018-2019 for a combined 2.9 WAR (1.1 and 1.8 respectively).

 

Meanwhile, Eric Sogard had a 2.6 WAR for 2019 alone and is signed for 1 year at $4.5M. 2018 notwithstanding, you can see where DS sees the upside to someone like Sogard.

 

The point is that there will always be lower risk options with comparable production available. Compare that to signing the long term extensions for players who turn into alter cockers by the time their contracts are over and become way overpaid in relation to their production.

[brewcrewdue80]

2 top 50 for a season of Yelich? That's really funny. It wouldn't be funny if it was 2022 and July's trade deadline with Yelich staring at 60 games left as a Brewer. But any moment before it's really funny. Fangraphs has him at being a 123.1million value the last 2 seasons. And it was on the rise last season before the kneecap. If he played 162 games the pace he was on is one of 77.5 million value.

 

So Joseph or who ever else does that trade values. Yelich is on a surplus of 191 million with 3 years control. 126 million with 2 years remaining. And 63mil with 1 season remaining. Go to it right?

 

I feel in the opinion that he will remain a Brewer all 3 seasons, unless, the team comes say within 10days of any trade deadline and look out of playoff contention. Because I would think a team would have to pay for half a season of Yelich then even though it's around 60 games left at that stage. So you would go 38.75 less each season of surplus. 152.25mil at this year's deadline. 87.25 next year's deadline. 24.25 million at deadline the final season(is that worth more than the QO pick?)

 

Trying to go off a value of a prospect article done less than 2 years ago. Wander Franco and Brendon McKay would have to headline a deal today. 2 top 15 prospects. Franco and Vidal Bruhan if at this season's deadline #1/#45 currently.

 

Next offseason that translates to 1 of the current top 8 prospects plus a top 100 prospect. Or a combination being between 9-25 currently and 26-99 currently. but probably extra as you get lower in the top 100 vs top 50. Mid-season that still is a one of the top 8 prospects and around 100 or two top 25-99.

 

Last season, you can still ask for a top 10 not graded a 70 and a bottom 100 plus. By mid-season you'd be looking at the top 26+ of current 60 grade values plus.

 

Raise your standards and be happy that a HOF player is on This team.

[TJseven7]

Got it right?

First off you can quit it with this tagline garbage. You need to stop talking down at me when your numbers are off.

 

Second off surplus value is value above contract cost. He makes 15 mil his last year. 12.5, 14 and 15.

Even if you call him an 8 war (which he hasn't done) player and place 9 mil per WAR due to him being an elite talent.

That's 3 years of 216 mil, 2 years 144, 1 of 72.

Surplus of 175, 115 and 57. And no ones talking about him before that surplus value gets to 57 (which is 49 by the law of fgraph)

 

Those values all drop if you don't go beyond the 8 Fgraph assigns per WAR. Joseph (and I) prescribe to 9 per WAR on elite players. We disagree on lower level WAR but agree on the top.

They drop to 151, 99 and 49

 

So I'm not sure where your values come from.

 

Add to that Price by Fgraph standards is a 2 WAR pitcher over the last 3 years. The last 2 he's been 2.35 WAR. They say that 2 WAR is worth 16 mil. Oddly enough that's exactly what he's paid by LAD over the next 3. I see a big negative value on him. I see the Dodgers still eating at least 20 mil in bad cap on that deal. They might not. Fgraph does not see it being that large.

 

So Verdugo and Gasterol for Yelich's 2022 season isn't far off. That at the deadline is.

[brewcrewdue80]

Got it right?

First off you can quit it with this tagline garbage.

 

Second off surplus value is value above contract cost. He makes 15 mil his last year. 12.5, 14 and 15.

Even if you call him an 8 war (which he hasn't done) player and place 9 mil per WAR due to him being an elite talent.

That's 3 years of 216 mil, 2 years 144, 1 of 72.

Surplus of 175, 115 and 57. And no ones talking about him before that surplus value gets to 57 (which is 49 by the law of fgraph)

 

Those values all drop if you don't go beyond the 8 Fgraph assigns per WAR. Joseph (and I) prescribe to 9 per WAR on elite players. We disagree on lower level WAR but agree on the top.

 

Fangraphs War has him at 7.6 and 7.8 last season. Those are at 147 games and 130 games played. So the trajectory of being 8WAR over a 162 game season is easily there. If I add the avg value Fangraphs put on his 2018 season and '19 season vs just taking the value he had for 2019 he comes to a per game average of 451k or 73.05million a season. At that value it's 4 mil less a season than what I rated him as a value to his 2019 season. Okay. Less 15mil is 58mil the final season vs the 63mil value I gave him. Rounded up because I think a 1 year rental is worth more in trade. You've dinged Yelich in terms of games total played a season. Is the value on prospects dinged that way? They will never play 162 games in a single season in the minors. Yelich had he played 162 games would have to come in at 9WAR possibly even approaching 10. Where does Fangraphs rank that as value? Well Mike Trout in 2015 & 2016 played in 159 games both seasons with War values of 9.3 and 9.7 and assessed a 74.4mil value and 77.5mil value. That amount comes to 477k per game value. I think that validates my value at 77mil or 73mil a season to Yelich.