When is the right time to trade Yellich?

[benji]

Given the Betts trade last night would keeping Yellich through 2021 be worth it. Is the equivalent of Verdugo/Graterol enough to keep the Brewers competitive in 2022?

 

Or is it better to get more prospects after this season?

 

 

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[MrTPlush]

I think the Red Sox just answered that question. I get the vibe Stearns will probably trade him a year out regardless of our competitiveness.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Red Sox are not really a great model for the Brewers when it comes to trading away generational talent because they can buy the top FA available every year if they really want to. They are a Hollywood movie star swapping out swimsuit models. The Brewers are working with Fairest of the State Fair and when they trade the swimsuit model it's hard to get another.

 

If they trade him, probably the ASB of 2021, middle of season when teams are less optimistic about what they have and more likely to seize the moment. But it's hard to do that if you're in contention. It's actually not that hard to justify just letting him play out the contract and losing him if you're contending. If you're sitting in first place that's as good a year as any to try to get a championship and if that's the case I'd have no issue with just keeping him. There would be a lot of 20/20 people saying they made a mistake not trading him if they don't win the World Series, but I don't agree. You play for the chances, and it's hard to justify punting on a chance because your MVP is an impending FA. There's never much of a guarantee that the chips you get back help you get anywhere close to that point again.

[Ennder]

We have him through the 2022 season so if they decide to trade him it will be sometime between midseason 2021 and midseason 2022. Just depends on how the rest of the team looks and how the team is doing.

[tmwiese55]

I've generally been thinking if they're out of contention in 2021 at the deadline you do it then for maximum return since the team would for sure have 1.5 years (two playoff runs). If you are in contention that year then you play it out and trade in the offseason.

 

Also, they should get a much better return than Boston since they won't be attaching a bad contract to him. But, he'll also be older than Mookie so some tradeoff.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's just kinda impossible to answer. Midseason may have fewer suitors, it's totally dependent on the market, weaknesses of the teams that could/would go for him at the deadline, and there's always a chance he regresses to the point he's not an elite hitter by the time they think of trading him.

[MrTPlush]

I doubt they let him play out the contract. I just don't think Stearns is willing to get a measly comp pick for him. If Stearns wanted to bank on the Yelich era that bad and go all in they would already be doing that. Not screwing around with washed up and/or average players at the corners etc. He would have signed a Moustakas and/or Grandal because how much they suck in 4 years is woefully meaningless. He would not have a rotation that is old/injury prone/Korean league wonders making up most of it.

 

Nothing Stearns does really points to a willingness to essentially let Yelich walk for nothing.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's not letting him walk for nothing if he's a huge piece of a team that's contending. You are sacrificing the trade value for a team that can win today. If he were headed to FA in the winter of 2018, would Stearns have traded him then? I'm thinking not. I don't think DS "goes for it" either, he is not that shortsighted. If it's obvious they can't win, or maybe they can but don't appear good "enough," then he will be traded. But if the team is sitting in first place, it's going to be harder explaining the white flag Yelich trade.

 

I think a big part of this whole discussion is how Brewers fans have been conditioned for 30 years. This is a player under contract for 3 seasons and nobody can stop talking about trading him. I just don't see it as a guaranteed thing at all. It's entirely situational.

[3and2Fastball]

It’s depressing to even think about. However, yes, if they are out of it at the trade deadline in July 2021 and get blown away by an offer, then yes.

 

I don’t think they’ll be out of it in either 2021 or 2022. I could see, and would actually prefer, that they keep him through the 2022 season and really go for it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I cannot see him being dealt during the season at the deadline. I think he's probably dealt in the offseason before the 2022 season. He's by far the Brewers' best, and most marketable player. I don't see any way they let him go with anything more than 1 season left on his deal. I am fully under the assumption that, unless something absolutely crazy happens, we'll have an MVP talent for the next two seasons.

[Warning Track Power]

Call me crazy but I think the Brewers and Yelich will stay married beyond 2022. I think Attanasio opens the checkbook for him.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it's a decent shot he plays out the deal. I'd go maybe 30/70 that he plays it out/is traded. Entirely situational but that's my feeling.

 

Think there is a -100% chance he signs another contract here.

[djoctagone]

i'd happily trade the extra l in his name right now.

[pacopete4]

Trading him would be the right move in the 2021-22 offseason. Giving him an extension may be foolish. Yes, the knee cap thing is a freak injury but he seems to have other things going on quite often even as a younger player. Use his prime and move on and reload towards another run.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

His back is a fair point. That's not usually something that goes away at 30.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I think the Red Sox just answered that question. I get the vibe Stearns will probably trade him a year out regardless of our competitiveness.

 

$15 million and $27 million is a big difference. I think more teams would be in on it and can get a larger return. Plus the brewers wouldn’t “need” to trade him for financial reasons. Thus think the return would be greater. But agree on your point of a year out. Enjoy the next two years.

[pacopete4]

It could be a Prince Fielder situation where we are looking to compete and trading Yelich just doesn't make sense so we hold onto him and bite the bullet on getting a return.

[Roderick]

I would trade him after this season if you get a fair deal. Trading him then will get you quite a bit more than waiting another year. Plus you aren't rolling the dice on his health or having multiple teams bidding the next summer. And if there are no takers, then you wait. The problem is you have the Arenado issue of him being publicly shopped - but I don't see how you keep it quiet if you put him on the block.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not so confident you get that much more by trading them earlier. Diminishing returns become a factor at a point. I think that's even more true the better the player is. You're giving up a ton by giving away 2 seasons of MVP performance and it's hard to get something close to that back in return.

 

Plus, none of us really know what the Brewers are doing behind the scenes, but 2021 is an intriguing season for them anyway, there is not much money committed beyond this season to anybody and if DS is ever doing a "go for it" thing it's probably then.

[JosephC]

I'd make him the best offer the Brewers could make him at the end of this upcoming season (probably something like 5 years, 160 million...which would put him under control for 7 years total since there would still be 2 years left on his current deal). And when he rejects it, I would look to trade him. I just think a small market team like Milwaukee needs to get back "2 years of value" for a player of this quality.

 

There was one point during this off-season where I would have floated his name out there, but I would have put such a high price-tag on him that my chances of dealing him would have been <1%.

[mattyo]

Call me crazy but I think the Brewers and Yelich will stay married beyond 2022. I think Attanasio opens the checkbook for him.

 

You're crazy

[Fear The Chorizo]

Either he gets traded at the 2022 july deadline or he doesnt get traded at all. It's pretty simple.

[MrTPlush]

I expect Stearns to do quite similar to this. Trade Yelich for another young stud like Verdugo plus some more. I mean Verdugo is arguably a 4+ WAR player potential himself...that certainly lightens the load of losing Yelich. Trade a year of Yelich for 5/6 of someone else.

 

Yah it hurts you for a single year...but helps you exponentially for 4/5 after that. People can mention the Fielder situation, but they were looking to go all-in on 2011...to a severe extent. I highly doubt Stearns is going to sell the farm next offseason and sign a bunch of guys to make a singular great team. If Yelich is here in 2022 it is the working of Mark Attanasio, that is absolutely the only way in my mind.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

They were going all in because Melvin believed in that. He was OK with sucking for a couple years to gear up for one big one, Stearns doesn't do that, or at least hasn't really to this point. If you look at 2011 and 2018 on paper there is no way you'd guess the 2018 team is as good with that rag tag rotation.

 

Stearns doesn't seem to be OK with white flagging entire seasons, and has said things pretty close to that. The cynical people will say he's doing that right now, I don't agree but don't want to send this way off the rails. Stearns wants to be sustainably competitive and maximize the chances for winning vs. putting all the chips in for a year. I believe he'll trade Yelich if it helps sustainable competition, but I don't think he'll do it if it forces him to punt on a winning season.

 

So that's a long-winded way of saying that I think 2021 offseason is the deadline unless the team is bad in 2022. I think he WILL let him walk if they are contending midway through 2022.

[3and2Fastball]

Extending Yelich helps guarantee the Brewers will not be title contenders unless the Brewers suddenly become zen wizards at drafting a developing multiple Cy Young & MVP candidates.