Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo, Downs, Wong to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins

[bill hAll Star]

I am not a blame management type and am almost always on the MKE side on the screaming here, but I am on the side that simply a team of Boston's level should not let a 27 year old MVP leave. Sure if they have behind the scenes info that he just wants out and doesn't wanna be there, of course. And I don't blame them if right now they have a legit mega offer on the table and gave him the choice to take that or we have to trade if you are determined to hit FA and we have no leg up in the race (risk to lose for nothing type thing). From what I can tell though, none of that has happened.

 

Other than that, the mega market should just pay prime age MVPs and figure the rest out around it. If they're 33 like Pujols, yea they should be smart about it. They about clear the cost of Betts off just next year in the Cuban, Pedroia, the remainder of Hanley/Panda. They won't be that far off from getting under the cap. That Evaldi one is the real kicker, take that out and it could've really helped get closer.

 

They won the WS two years ago with this team, won mid 80s last year with a lot going wrong (Sale especially), it is not at all outside the possibility for them to make the playoffs again this year, especially if Sale rebounds. MEanwhile, keep being frugal on other contracts, don't go nuts at the deadlines blowing whatever young players you do have, within 2-3 years you'd be under the tax as these guys fall off and/or getting close to the end so it's much easier to trade. That's my take and it has nothing to do with them spending 500 mil. But, the points that have been made certainly opened my eyes that what they're doing here isn't crazy and there is a logic to all of it. I still lean the other way though.

 

In 2012, granted, this was a longer burden, they literally gave away prime Adrian Gonzalez and a bad Carl Crawford contract. Those contracts lasted through 2018 and 2017, respectively. They also gave up Beckett.

 

They won the World Series in 2013 with probably some extra cash to sign short-term deals.

 

They won the World Series in 2018 because they signed David Price in 2016 to a huge deal, JD Martinez in 2018, and got under the luxury tax threshold in 2017. Would any of that have happened with Carl Crawford rotting for $21 million and a washed up A-Gon collecting $21 million? Probably not.

 

How does this relate to Betts? If they really DID find a way to sign Betts next year (by the way, they technically have the same opportunity to sign him still), it would proably be $40 million/year. They'd probably keep Price or give him away having to pay 70% of his deal.

 

So imagine a roster with Betts, Price, and everyone else (because you want to compete, right?). In 2021, that roster is ALREADY well over the luxury tax. Now add in that they won 84 games last year, have a disappearing farm system, and guys like Sale, Price, etc. are getting older. That means they'd probably have to add more expensive players to be really good. Those expensive players would cost 1.5-2x the cost because they'd be way, way over the luxury tax. Sign another ace pitcher for $20 million/year? It'll cost ownership $30-35m/year at least until they can find their way back under.

 

So I just don't see it happening. The fact that Betts probably is gone anyways and the unlikelihood of winning it this year or building around him with all of the other bad contracts in 2021 mean you just have to go and get the best you can and retool. It worked for them after 2012.

[tmwiese55]

I said I get it all. And the kicker or final straw might just be that they've determined he's not resigning with them, or at least is unlikely to, so don't think it's worth the risk of getting nothing. As I said, can't blame them for that if that's the case. It's just surprising if it is and this isn't just about them saving money. My take is that taking all that into consideration I still keep the guy (again, unless they just think he's gone, then do what you gotta do).

 

They would've basically only been about 30 mil over the tax. They weren't that far off from getting there and that amount clears next year just with the guys I listed. Again, that Evaldi one is a killer, 15 mil there gone and then pay a chunk of Price's deal to someone and you're there. Then start figuring things out for the future. Even not knowing this was in the works for them I remember thinking how dumb of a contract that was for basically a reward for a couple good playoff games. My boss who's a Sox fan said the same thing at the time.

 

ETA: to fix typo. And say that I generally agree to the following post. Things are tough for them regardless. I'd just rather have the prime age MVP while figuring it out, and several other stars like you said. So it's not like they're going to be awful. Just tough to fix pitching (assuming Sale is never the same) when cash strapped for a few years. But do Brewers style signings and maybe you can cobble something together that clicks.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, they definitely are paying for other deals.

 

The issue (and we're mostly in agreement, here) is that even if you chop your way down to the lux tax # by giving away Price, maybe finding a way to dump Eovaldi, etc...is that your team still doesn't have a GREAT outlook at that point. They have a lot of star power but are very thin behind them so they'd have to go and fill their roster with other expensive pieces.

[homer]

If anyone wants a case study on the potential pratfalls of signing big time free agents to long term deals, look no further than the Red Sox. Signing Sale, Eovaldi, and Price forced their hand on this one. That Sale contract is going to look really bad in just a year or two. Maybe even this year. Who knows? Maybe they jettison Devers and Sale in order to get rid of his contract.

 

It really cuts both ways, though.

 

Most World Series champions have these ridiculous contracts. The Red Sox have won 2 in the past 7 years. The Dodgers have plenty of these massive contracts and have been to basically every WS for the NL recently. The Nats just won with Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg...yeah, they passed on Harper and later Rendon, but they're not there without those 3 massive contract pitcher prices.

 

So unless you expect owners to start pushing $400-500 million payrolls, it is working out exactly as it should. The big markets spend big bucks to take a shot at titles, knowing that Jacoby Ellsbury and Nate Eovaldi may be literally useless contract players or shells of their former selves at some point in said contracts.

 

When they reach a point like the Red Sox and Cubs have of, "oh, we are already at the luxury tax, we won 84 games last year, and we have no farm system. Let's not just sign our entire roster back/add to it so that we can have a $300 million payroll of 34-year-old vets" they hit the reset button. Most fans aren't sitting and looking at cot's baseball contracts so they don't really have a grasp on this, but it's probably the right thing to do unless you expect most or all of these teams to go to $400+ million.

 

Well yeah but they had already won their two titles when they extended Sale and Eovaldi. The time to cut bait on those guys was before last season.

[tmwiese55]

Think that's what cost the GM his job. Everyone could see the Sale arm problem started the year before yet they handed him a big deal. Evaldi had a few good games late and you gave a 4 year deal as a reward. One would think this get under the tax directive was already in place and yet he did those things. The Evaldi being the worst, Sale at least was a legit superstar. I guess the owner has to sign off on it, so you'd think they'd have had this discussion last offseason and they'd have never gotten to this point.

[LouisEly]

Hearing half of Prices deal... 48 mil. That still makes Price a -29 mil dollar value. Betts is a 36 million dollar value.

 

Dodgers get 7 mil in value but 26 mil of it is this year. They also get the QO pick.

For verdugo and maeda. That's not a value win. That's a 2020 win only.

 

People hate this for the Red Sox but this is a great deal for the Red Sox. Now they are roughly 20 mil under the lux tax line.

Yup, this is a great deal for the Red Sox. No guarantee that Betts doesn't leave in free agency. They get Verdugo and Graterol for a (great) player who only has one year of control left and a (good) 34-year-old pitcher who has missed significant portions of two of the last three years and is still owed $96M over the next three years. It cost them $48M, but they save $59M in salary this year and get two good young players.

[LouisEly]

Again though, not that this happens because it's unlikely, but they're uniquely positioned where they could trade him off for very nice pieces and sign him back later.

The only significant contract the Red Sox unload after this season are Rusney Castillo ($14.25M) and Jackie Bradley, Jr. ($11M), and Bradley isn't a bad contract. But then you have Devers hitting Arby-1, Benintendi hitting Arby-2, and Eduardo Rodriguez hitting Arby-3. It will likely be a major luxury tax hit to resign him.

[Ennder]

Again though, not that this happens because it's unlikely, but they're uniquely positioned where they could trade him off for very nice pieces and sign him back later.

The only significant contract the Red Sox unload after this season are Rusney Castillo ($14.25M) and Jackie Bradley, Jr. ($11M), and Bradley isn't a bad contract. But then you have Devers hitting Arby-1, Benintendi hitting Arby-2, and Eduardo Rodriguez hitting Arby-3. It will likely be a major luxury tax hit to resign him.

 

But it will be the first year of the luxury cap. The reason they are resetting it is because the penalties get much worse over time.

[TJseven7]

They would've basically only been about 30 mil over the tax. They weren't that far off from getting there and that amount clears next year just with the guys I listed. Again, that Evaldi one is a killer, 15 mil there gone and then pay a chunk of Price's deal to someone and you're there. Then start figuring things out for the future. Even not knowing this was in the works for them I remember thinking how dumb of a contract that was for basically a reward for a couple good playoff games. My boss who's a Sox fan said the same thing at the time.

 

Right, but if you eat a larger chunk of Price. That falls foward for 3 years as well. Eovaldi is a player they are stuck on.

 

They were about to be 3rd time offenders. That's a 50% hit on everything over the tax line. Which was basically Betts prior to the trade. That's 10-13 mil thrown away. The problem is worse in 2021.

Save 20 on Panda and Castillo

Lose Bradley (do you want to do that?)

Saved 31

Betts goes up 8 to 13 mil.

Erob arby 4 goes up 2-3 mil.

Beni arby 2 goes up 2 mil.

 

That doesn't leave a lot of room for anything else.

 

So they were set to be up against the 210mil line and cap frozen (see cubs) as 3rd time offenders. They could afford to keep Betts, but then they are stuck unless they want to pay 50% on top of every dollar spent. By resetting, they get off of all of Eov Pedroia and Price before they hit 50% again. They can go to 230 mil next year and only pay 4mil in lux tax. They could land Betts and a front of the rotation arm next year and only pay 4 mil in lux tax.

 

Opposed to the 10 mil they were going to pay this year.

 

Basically keeping Betts next year as a 3rd time offender froze their spending after that. Now they can go get 2 stars in 2021 and didn't burn 10-13 mil this off season for nothing.

 

Truly this puts them in BETTER position to sign Betts next year than they previously were in. Frankly, this move just landed Boston Betts and Stroman. Betts is going to the highest bidder. Boston absolutely can be that team and it's easier after the trade than before.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My thought is if the Brewers had a prospect as highly regarded as Graterol I would have hoped for someone with more upside the Maeda. Maeda has solid numbers but had a lower WAR than Brett Anderson, Davies and was about equal with Chase Anderson. I know WAR isnt perfect but Maeda does not throw a ton of innings so that limits his value unless the Twins see him being able to make more starts and go deeper into games.

 

It's also very possible that the unaffiliated prospect ranking services have Graterol rated much higher than MLB teams actually do. Like I said above, while he's got a huge arm, his body type and physique don't lend themselves to prolonged success. For every Bartolo Colon that finds a way to make it work, there are 20 Luis Ortiz types who are ranked highly by independent scouting services and prospect rankings, but simply don't hold a lot of value and end up washing out.

 

I completely agree prospects can be overrated and maybe his size limits him going forward. However he is a much better prospect than Ortiz was. He hits 100 mph with an almost 4 to 1 K to walk ratio. ERA of 2.48 and WHIP of 1.07. And he wont turn 22 until this August. I would have been very happy to get him

 

Well, it appears that Graterol's medicals have potentially put this deal on hold. I'm not fat shaming, and obviously there are all types of body types who can be great baseball players, but when you are considering trading two franchise-type players for a package that includes a 21-year-old kid who is already tipping the scale at near 280 pounds, there are going to be concerns. Perhaps Graterol can be transitioned into a relief role, but unless he does that and is Hader-level good, that would substantially decrease his value.

[monty57]

Here's the rules from the MLB site regarding the penalty for exceeding the luxury tax level:

 

A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

 

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

 

The rules were made stricter in 2018, and since then teams have been unwilling to go too far over the "cap," or stay over for more than two years. If the Red Sox hadn't done a deal like this, they would have been paying 50% tax plus a 12-45% surcharge on all overages. That's just a "tax," they don't get an extra player for that $20M or so they'd be paying.

 

They got a good young OF back, and a potentially good pitcher back. Verdugo probably won't be as good as Betts this year, but for the roughly $63M they're saving this year in salary and luxury tax, I'd take the downgrade, plus they get him for four more years after this year plus whatever Graterol adds, and they get to reset the luxury tax to spend big next offseason. I think getting as much as they did is a big win for the Red Sox.

 

Meanwhile, even after this trade Cot's is estimating that the Dodgers will still be about $3M under the luxury tax level and they got to keep their top prospects while they should be hands down the best NL team "on paper" going into the season. Friedman is a good GM.

[tmwiese55]

Yea, the Dodgers management is top notch. They have all the benefits of the mega market and know exactly how to use it. Somehow putting out one of the best teams on paper for about the last 10ish years while also having the best farm. And seemingly continuing to exactly nail which prospects to keep and which they can trade. Continue to nail their high draft picks as well. I really won't be mad if they get a WS or two, they deserve it and its crazy they haven't won yet. I also don't hate them since they basically haven't won in my life. Unlike NYY and Bos that we're all just sick of.

[JosephC]

 

Well, it appears that Graterol's medicals have potentially put this deal on hold. I'm not fat shaming, and obviously there are all types of body types who can be great baseball players, but when you are considering trading two franchise-type players for a package that includes a 21-year-old kid who is already tipping the scale at near 280 pounds, there are going to be concerns. Perhaps Graterol can be transitioned into a relief role, but unless he does that and is Hader-level good, that would substantially decrease his value.

 

It's all crap.

 

https://theathletic.com/1587470/2020/02/06/rosenthal-three-team-mookie-betts-trade-held-up-may-be-adjusted-over-medical-review/

 

From the article: "The Red Sox, after viewing the medical records of Twins right-hander Brusdar Graterol, projected him more as a reliever than as a starter, according to sources involved with the discussions."

 

How does a pitcher's medical record show that he's more likely to be future reliever rather than a starter? Wouldn't that come from a scouting report? Do the Red Sox no longer have scouts? There is nothing out there that is a secret about Graterol. Graterol had Tommy John surgery in the past, and he missed two months of this last season with a shoulder impingement but was back on the mound in September throwing 101 MPH. Now how would his medical record indicate he's a reliever, not a starter? If his arm is about to fall off, wouldn't that mean that he cannot pitch at all?

 

Note the Red Sox are not saying they don't want Gratesol because of his past injuries (widely known) or because he's too fat (which a second grader can figure out by looking at the height/weight measurement). The big key in this is that they aren't saying they don't want Graterol, which really should be the case if they have a significant concern with his medicals. What they are saying is they want more, with some flimsy excuse about the medicals saying he's a starter and not a reliever, which really doesn't make any sense at all.

 

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out, if the Red Sox try to bully the Dodgers or the Twins for another prospect/player. Or if the Red Sox and Dodgers gang up and try to bully the Twins out of another prospect. Personally, if I were the Twins, I couldn't walk away from this trade fast enough. We'll see if the Dodgers pony up more? If I were them, I'd say I'd throw in another fringe prospect but would also demand the Dodgers send an additional 6 million to pay for even more of Price's bad contract (on top of all the money they are already shipping to LA).

[monty57]

 

Well, it appears that Graterol's medicals have potentially put this deal on hold. I'm not fat shaming, and obviously there are all types of body types who can be great baseball players, but when you are considering trading two franchise-type players for a package that includes a 21-year-old kid who is already tipping the scale at near 280 pounds, there are going to be concerns. Perhaps Graterol can be transitioned into a relief role, but unless he does that and is Hader-level good, that would substantially decrease his value.

 

It's all crap.

 

https://theathletic.com/1587470/2020/02/06/rosenthal-three-team-mookie-betts-trade-held-up-may-be-adjusted-over-medical-review/

 

From the article: "The Red Sox, after viewing the medical records of Twins right-hander Brusdar Graterol, projected him more as a reliever than as a starter, according to sources involved with the discussions."

 

How does a pitcher's medical record show that he's more likely to be future reliever rather than a starter? Wouldn't that come from a scouting report? Do the Red Sox no longer have scouts? There is nothing out there that is a secret about Graterol. Graterol had Tommy John surgery in the past, and he missed two months of this last season with a shoulder impingement but was back on the mound in September throwing 101 MPH. Now how would his medical record indicate he's a reliever, not a starter? If his arm is about to fall off, wouldn't that mean that he cannot pitch at all?

 

Note the Red Sox are not saying they don't want Gratesol because of his past injuries (widely known) or because he's too fat (which a second grader can figure out by looking at the height/weight measurement). The big key in this is that they aren't saying they don't want Graterol, which really should be the case if they have a significant concern with his medicals. What they are saying is they want more, with some flimsy excuse about the medicals saying he's a starter and not a reliever, which really doesn't make any sense at all.

 

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out, if the Red Sox try to bully the Dodgers or the Twins for another prospect/player. Or if the Red Sox and Dodgers gang up and try to bully the Twins out of another prospect. Personally, if I were the Twins, I couldn't walk away from this trade fast enough. We'll see if the Dodgers pony up more? If I were them, I'd say I'd throw in another fringe prospect but would also demand the Dodgers send an additional 6 million to pay for even more of Price's bad contract (on top of all the money they are already shipping to LA).

 

Yeah, if the deal was signed, then the Red Sox only have a case if there was information they weren't given prior to signing that has surfaced after the deal was signed. If they didn't thoroughly review the medicals before signing, that's their problem.

 

If the deal is not yet signed, then they're just using this as a bargaining chip, which is risky because if the Twins back out the deal probably doesn't get done and Boston's on the hook for a lot of money.

[Ennder]

I think that there are some very likely to hit incentives for the Dodgers that still will push their payroll over the cap. But even if that happens they have tons of room next year.

[MrTPlush]

You know what doesn't look terrible? For some reason I don't think the Red Sox will mind that Price fell off a cliff. 1.98 ERA and 2-0 in the World Series.

 

[monty57]

I think that there are some very likely to hit incentives for the Dodgers that still will push their payroll over the cap. But even if that happens they have tons of room next year.

 

That's possible, but if they're over by $0.01 then they would be in year two of the cycle if they wanted to go over for a signing next offseason, pushing their taxes much higher. Friedman has done a good job of being around $1-2M under the "cap" for the past two years, so I'd guess that he's done the math and will end up just under it once again.

[Eye Black]

Most recent Tweet from Ken Rosenthal:

 

Talks between #MNTwins and #RedSox to resolve differences over value of right-hander Brusdar Graterol going slowly, sources tell The Athletic. One alternative is for #Dodgers to acquire prospect from another club to help bridge gap.

 

Obviously a very, very low probability that the potential new club involved would be the Brewers due to their current farm system (and lack of close to the majors prospects), but Assistant General Manager Matt Arnold is very close with both Andrew Friedman (used to report directly to him) and Chaim Bloom, so anything’s possible. Most likely scenario seems like the Dodgers should just use on of their own prospects to bridge the trade gap.

[JosephC]

Figures the Red Sox (probably along with the Dodgers) are trying to soak a smaller market (relative to LA/Boston) in this trade. Completely predictable.

 

What...the Dodgers have one of the best farm systems in baseball and they cannot throw another modest prospect to bridge the gap? After all, what team is getting Mookie Betts in this deal?

 

If I were the Twins, I couldn't walk away from this deal fast enough.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yea, the Dodgers management is top notch. They have all the benefits of the mega market and know exactly how to use it. Somehow putting out one of the best teams on paper for about the last 10ish years while also having the best farm. And seemingly continuing to exactly nail which prospects to keep and which they can trade. Continue to nail their high draft picks as well. I really won't be mad if they get a WS or two, they deserve it and its crazy they haven't won yet. I also don't hate them since they basically haven't won in my life. Unlike NYY and Bos that we're all just sick of.

 

They are the perfect example for how big a factor luck plays. They've been run nearly flawlessly for a decade and just can't finish. It'd be possible to run their success through a parallel universe and come out with 5 titles.

[jerichoholicninja]

Figures the Red Sox (probably along with the Dodgers) are trying to soak a smaller market (relative to LA/Boston) in this trade. Completely predictable.

 

What...the Dodgers have one of the best farm systems in baseball and they cannot throw another modest prospect to bridge the gap? After all, what team is getting Mookie Betts in this deal?

 

If I were the Twins, I couldn't walk away from this deal fast enough.

 

I don't think there's anything nefarious going on here. Both the Dodgers and Red Sox front office came from Tampa nothing "big market" about that. However, this deal really makes no sense for the Twins unless they feel Graterol is way over valued by everyone else or made of glass that just hasn't cracked yet.

[nate82]

 

Well, it appears that Graterol's medicals have potentially put this deal on hold. I'm not fat shaming, and obviously there are all types of body types who can be great baseball players, but when you are considering trading two franchise-type players for a package that includes a 21-year-old kid who is already tipping the scale at near 280 pounds, there are going to be concerns. Perhaps Graterol can be transitioned into a relief role, but unless he does that and is Hader-level good, that would substantially decrease his value.

 

It's all crap.

 

https://theathletic.com/1587470/2020/02/06/rosenthal-three-team-mookie-betts-trade-held-up-may-be-adjusted-over-medical-review/

 

From the article: "The Red Sox, after viewing the medical records of Twins right-hander Brusdar Graterol, projected him more as a reliever than as a starter, according to sources involved with the discussions."

 

How does a pitcher's medical record show that he's more likely to be future reliever rather than a starter? Wouldn't that come from a scouting report? Do the Red Sox no longer have scouts? There is nothing out there that is a secret about Graterol. Graterol had Tommy John surgery in the past, and he missed two months of this last season with a shoulder impingement but was back on the mound in September throwing 101 MPH. Now how would his medical record indicate he's a reliever, not a starter? If his arm is about to fall off, wouldn't that mean that he cannot pitch at all?

 

Note the Red Sox are not saying they don't want Gratesol because of his past injuries (widely known) or because he's too fat (which a second grader can figure out by looking at the height/weight measurement). The big key in this is that they aren't saying they don't want Graterol, which really should be the case if they have a significant concern with his medicals. What they are saying is they want more, with some flimsy excuse about the medicals saying he's a starter and not a reliever, which really doesn't make any sense at all.

 

Injuries to pitchers that move them from a starter to a reliever happen all the time. It is not a flimsy excuse at all as it is rather valid for them to bring up. For example if the injury to his shoulder hasn't fully healed or how it healed is going to be the best that it is going to be he could have more fatigue in his shoulder thus reducing how many innings he can pitch in the year. That would move him from a starter to a reliever. Dismissing the medical records as a way to judge a player on if they are better as a reliever versus a starter is rather short sighted.

[adambr2]

Twins have pulled out of the trade.

[Eye Black]

Twins have pulled out of the trade.

Looks like that report is being walked back a bit. Sounds like the part involving the Twins is at an impasse, but they haven’t officially walked away from a potential deal.

[JosephC]

Hard to believe Boston would let this deal fall apart. Maybe I'm seriously over-estimating Verdugo's value?

 

I can understand over-emotional Boston fans being upset over losing Betts....BUT HE IS STILL ESSENTIALLY A ONE-YEAR PLAYER FOR THEM since they apparently aren't willing to give him a 420 million dollar contract. Being able to dump Price now seems to be a gift straight from heaven, even though they would be eating half of his salary.

 

Boston = +71.3 million

Adds Verdugo (+75.5), Graterol (+18.9)

Subtracts Betts (-36), Price (+60.9), 48 million dollars (-48)

 

Twins = -17.1 million

Adds Maeda (+1.8)

Subtracts Graterol (-18.9)

 

Dodgers = -54.2 million

Adds Betts (+36), Price (-60.9), 48 million dollars (+48)

Subtracts Verdugo (-75.5), Maeda (-1.8)