Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo, Downs, Wong to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins

[clancyphile]

Am I the only one who doesn't understand what the Twins are doing here? Seems like a dumb move on their part.

 

Graterol doesn't get them a full season as a SP. Maeda will and is proven. 4years cheap of proven full season is a huge win for the Twins. Graterol is probably the Dodgers answer on a RP and Dustin May is now entrenched in their rotation for 2020

 

Personally for the Dodgers. Just wow. What a power move. Can they set the all-time record for wins in a season this year? Price gets to pitch in the NL. You know he can go 200+ This has got to only turn out great for LA.

 

I think Boston got a bit hosed honestly. We'll see just how bad with the money.

 

 

Ahh my mistake the Red Sox get Graterol not the Dodgers. Sooo Bullpen need LA? I mean if you're winning 7-1 is that really a big need?

 

The Red Sox are caught against the Yankees and Rays. They overextended on Eovaldi/Sale/Price and couldn't re-sign Betts without a big luxury tax bill.

 

They had to do a bit of a rebuild. Unlike the Brewers, though, they will have the ability to spend big on free agents.

[patrickgpe]

I get the twins wanting to go for it but man I would have thought they could get a little better starter than Maeda for Graterol. I am probably underestimating the value of Maeda's extremely low contract though

I thought the same thing. I understand what the dodgers and sox are doing, i don't get it from the Twins perspective.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I get the twins wanting to go for it but man I would have thought they could get a little better starter than Maeda for Graterol. I am probably underestimating the value of Maeda's extremely low contract though

I thought the same thing. I understand what the dodgers and sox are doing, i don't get it from the Twins perspective.

 

I do. The Twins are obviously going for it. They see Maeda as contributing to the MLB club in a stronger fashion than Graterol will in the next two seasons. Maeda is a legit middle-rotation starter. Graterol is a 21-year-old kid with a huge arm and Rueben Quevedo's body.

[Ennder]

The Twins are in the running for the World Series this year, a good starting pitcher that is cost controlled has a ton of value to them since it is the weakest part of their team.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Dodgers are obviously in a go-for-it year now, with Betts a free agent after this season.

 

I wonder if they start up conversations with the Brewers for Hader? The pen is the only potential weakness of their super team.

 

Had a similar thought. If the Crew is out of it at the deadline, that Dodgers farm system is ripe.

 

If I'm the Dodgers, and I know that I can acquire Hader, I don't wait till the deadline on the chance that the Brewers are not in contention. I strike now. They managed to acquire Betts and Price without giving up anything huge on their farm. Are they really going to build a super team, then leave the end of close games up to wildcards like Blake Treinen and a potentially washed Kenley Jansen?

[jjfanec]

I get the twins wanting to go for it but man I would have thought they could get a little better starter than Maeda for Graterol. I am probably underestimating the value of Maeda's extremely low contract though

I thought the same thing. I understand what the dodgers and sox are doing, i don't get it from the Twins perspective.

 

I do. The Twins are obviously going for it. They see Maeda as contributing to the MLB club in a stronger fashion than Graterol will in the next two seasons. Maeda is a legit middle-rotation starter. Graterol is a 21-year-old kid with a huge arm and Rueben Quevedo's body.

 

My thought is if the Brewers had a prospect as highly regarded as Graterol I would have hoped for someone with more upside the Maeda. Maeda has solid numbers but had a lower WAR than Brett Anderson, Davies and was about equal with Chase Anderson. I know WAR isnt perfect but Maeda does not throw a ton of innings so that limits his value unless the Twins see him being able to make more starts and go deeper into games.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My thought is if the Brewers had a prospect as highly regarded as Graterol I would have hoped for someone with more upside the Maeda. Maeda has solid numbers but had a lower WAR than Brett Anderson, Davies and was about equal with Chase Anderson. I know WAR isnt perfect but Maeda does not throw a ton of innings so that limits his value unless the Twins see him being able to make more starts and go deeper into games.

 

It's also very possible that the unaffiliated prospect ranking services have Graterol rated much higher than MLB teams actually do. Like I said above, while he's got a huge arm, his body type and physique don't lend themselves to prolonged success. For every Bartolo Colon that finds a way to make it work, there are 20 Luis Ortiz types who are ranked highly by independent scouting services and prospect rankings, but simply don't hold a lot of value and end up washing out.

[tmwiese55]

I would be ticked if I was a Red Sox fan.

 

I wouldn't be. I'd be resting on my 4 world series championships in 16 years and trust in the team to make good choices. If the Red Sox want to do a 1 year rebuild this is the perfect way for them to do it. They may be down a bit in 2020 but the team will be better in 2021+ for it.

 

Sure of course big pic their titles are in the bank so can't be too mad.

 

But, if I was their fans I would be mad that not paying a 27 year old MVP is not the way to reset and get under the tax. Seems they wouldn't have been able to do it this year, but have it as a goal over the next few years. Do things like try to dump Price, Evaldi on someone, wait for Pedrois money to drop off, I think they have like 10 mil on the books from a Cuban that flopped, I think one of Hanley/Panda might still be on the books. Do Brewers style bargain shopping to fill out your roster. You should have been able to get under in the coming years. Maybe work out the extension with him to be backloaded and early years be lower.

[jjfanec]

My thought is if the Brewers had a prospect as highly regarded as Graterol I would have hoped for someone with more upside the Maeda. Maeda has solid numbers but had a lower WAR than Brett Anderson, Davies and was about equal with Chase Anderson. I know WAR isnt perfect but Maeda does not throw a ton of innings so that limits his value unless the Twins see him being able to make more starts and go deeper into games.

 

It's also very possible that the unaffiliated prospect ranking services have Graterol rated much higher than MLB teams actually do. Like I said above, while he's got a huge arm, his body type and physique don't lend themselves to prolonged success. For every Bartolo Colon that finds a way to make it work, there are 20 Luis Ortiz types who are ranked highly by independent scouting services and prospect rankings, but simply don't hold a lot of value and end up washing out.

 

I completely agree prospects can be overrated and maybe his size limits him going forward. However he is a much better prospect than Ortiz was. He hits 100 mph with an almost 4 to 1 K to walk ratio. ERA of 2.48 and WHIP of 1.07. And he wont turn 22 until this August. I would have been very happy to get him

[JosephC]

I'd calculate the surplus values in the deal as follows:

 

Betts = +36 million

Price = -60.9 million

Verdugo = +75.5 million

Graterol = +18.9 million

Maeda = +1.8 million

[Fear The Chorizo]

I would be ticked if I was a Red Sox fan.

 

I wouldn't be. I'd be resting on my 4 world series championships in 16 years and trust in the team to make good choices. If the Red Sox want to do a 1 year rebuild this is the perfect way for them to do it. They may be down a bit in 2020 but the team will be better in 2021+ for it.

 

Sure of course big pic their titles are in the bank so can't be too mad.

 

But, if I was their fans I would be mad that not paying a 27 year old MVP is not the way to reset and get under the tax. Seems they wouldn't have been able to do it this year, but have it as a goal over the next few years. Do things like try to dump Price, Evaldi on someone, wait for Pedrois money to drop off, I think they have like 10 mil on the books from a Cuban that flopped, I think one of Hanley/Panda might still be on the books. Do Brewers style bargain shopping to fill out your roster. You should have been able to get under in the coming years. Maybe work out the extension with him to be backloaded and early years be lower.

 

But just jettisoning vets with bloated contracts without including a valuable player like Betts as the centerpiece would mean the red sox would probably be on the hook for most of those other contracts, and still not get under the luxury tax limit. Trying to slowly drop payroll over a few years basically makes the retooling take longer and gets fans restless for more drastic changes to get the team on the right track more quickly.

[tmwiese55]

Supposedly they still ate half of Price's deal. Not sure how accurate that is. Basically I'd have just kept him and been frugal the next few years while trying to offload those guys as you go. Eventually you'd have gotten under. They had a bunch fall off this season and more falls off every year.

 

I suppose if you think playing that route angers more fans than letting a 27 year old MVP go as one of the top 3 richest teams that's yours or their call, but I think this is much worse.

 

ETA: Evaldi signing was just a huge mistake if you had this tax plan in mind down the line

[Warning Track Power]

If I'm the Dodgers, and I know that I can acquire Hader, I don't wait till the deadline on the chance that the Brewers are not in contention. I strike now. They managed to acquire Betts and Price without giving up anything huge on their farm. Are they really going to build a super team, then leave the end of close games up to wildcards like Blake Treinen and a potentially washed Kenley Jansen?

I mean I hear you and agree but the Dodgers were just able to acquire a top 5 talent in MLB in Betts without dealing Lux or May. We all believe the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed to trade Hader, who is under team control until after the 2023 season, and any trade that doesn't include one of those guys is just not overwhelming. Even though he is only turning 26 this year, the Brewers aren't trading Hader for Corey Seager (who is a free agent after 2021) and Tony Gonsolin.

 

Overwhelming means May or Lux and that just isn't happening.

[Ennder]

This puts the Red Sox in a position to be the front runners on Betts next year as long as they handled things ok so he isn't just pissed off.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If I'm the Dodgers, and I know that I can acquire Hader, I don't wait till the deadline on the chance that the Brewers are not in contention. I strike now. They managed to acquire Betts and Price without giving up anything huge on their farm. Are they really going to build a super team, then leave the end of close games up to wildcards like Blake Treinen and a potentially washed Kenley Jansen?

I mean I hear you and agree but the Dodgers were just able to acquire a top 5 talent in MLB in Betts without dealing Lux or May. We all believe the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed to trade Hader, who is under team control until after the 2023 season, and any trade that doesn't include one of those guys is just not overwhelming. Even though he is only turning 26 this year, the Brewers aren't trading Hader for Corey Seager (who is a free agent after 2021) and Tony Gonsolin.

 

Overwhelming means May or Lux and that just isn't happening.

 

I agree, it would take one of those guys as the headliner. The Dodgers are going to have to weigh whether having a top notch pen is worth the price. They are pretty much in the same spot they were last season, when the pen arguably cost them a trip to the World Series. They can get a guy that would replace Lux or May's production for the next 2-3 years pretty easy via free agency or trade. But guys like Hader don't exist on the free agent market. And they'd be getting 4 years of him.

 

But you are probably right ... and I'm going to very much enjoy watching Jansen blow games for the Dodgers again in the 2020 playoffs.

[tmwiese55]

Didn't Price transition to the bullpen one season or at least postseason and do well for Boston? I don't think that would be a move for the regular season as for that money you want to try and start him. But come playoffs when you have Kershaw, Buehler already and if someone like May steps up more. Maybe they can have Price be a late game guy. I'd be shocked if they don't get a top pen arm at the deadline though, whoever that may be.

 

With how loaded they are on O and with the plan to sign Mookie. I'd assume they don't plan on paying Seager, so I'd be using him as trade bait for someone like Hader. Not sure any other eliever would be worth that price though.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think it would have been wise for the Red Sox to have a $260+ million cost payroll in 2021 prior to even adding anything that we know about this year. If they somehow didn't lose Betts and signed him to $40+/year and kept Price, that's what they're looking at.

 

They're in better position for it unless you think their owner should go over $400 million by 2021 or 2022.

[homer]

If anyone wants a case study on the potential pratfalls of signing big time free agents to long term deals, look no further than the Red Sox. Signing Sale, Eovaldi, and Price forced their hand on this one. That Sale contract is going to look really bad in just a year or two. Maybe even this year. Who knows? Maybe they jettison Devers and Sale in order to get rid of his contract.

[bill hAll Star]

If anyone wants a case study on the potential pratfalls of signing big time free agents to long term deals, look no further than the Red Sox. Signing Sale, Eovaldi, and Price forced their hand on this one. That Sale contract is going to look really bad in just a year or two. Maybe even this year. Who knows? Maybe they jettison Devers and Sale in order to get rid of his contract.

 

It really cuts both ways, though.

 

Most World Series champions have these ridiculous contracts. The Red Sox have won 2 in the past 7 years. The Dodgers have plenty of these massive contracts and have been to basically every WS for the NL recently. The Nats just won with Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg...yeah, they passed on Harper and later Rendon, but they're not there without those 3 massive contract pitcher prices.

 

So unless you expect owners to start pushing $400-500 million payrolls, it is working out exactly as it should. The big markets spend big bucks to take a shot at titles, knowing that Jacoby Ellsbury and Nate Eovaldi may be literally useless contract players or shells of their former selves at some point in said contracts.

 

When they reach a point like the Red Sox and Cubs have of, "oh, we are already at the luxury tax, we won 84 games last year, and we have no farm system. Let's not just sign our entire roster back/add to it so that we can have a $300 million payroll of 34-year-old vets" they hit the reset button. Most fans aren't sitting and looking at cot's baseball contracts so they don't really have a grasp on this, but it's probably the right thing to do unless you expect most or all of these teams to go to $400+ million.

[jjgott]

If we were going into Yelich's last contract year would a package of Verdugo and Graterol be enough in a trade?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If we were going into Yelich's last contract year would a package of Verdugo and Graterol be enough in a trade?

 

I am not a Graterol fan, but a guy like Verdugo would be an ideal replacement. He's already proven he can perform at the major league level, and is controllable for 5 seasons. It's also important to note that Price likely carries a negative overall value. The Brewers wouldn't have that sort of albatross-type contract that they'd need to offload with Yelich.

 

But if the general consensus is if I'd trade Yelich after the 2021 season for a young, affordable and for-the-most-part proven OF and a Top 50-type starting pitching prospect, then yep, I sure would.

[TJseven7]

I'd calculate the surplus values in the deal as follows:

 

Betts = +36 million

Price = -60.9 million

Verdugo = +75.5 million

Graterol = +18.9 million

Maeda = +1.8 million

 

This is crazy and I have Price valued even worse. Boston gives up 23.1 mil in value. They get 94.4 mil in value.

 

People hate it for Boston? As stated, that value for the 5th year of Yelich (add another prospect for MKE to offset the Price cap eat part of the deal) is about what they gave up for all 5 years of Yelich. MKE gets over 100 mil of surplus value for 1 year of Yelich which is +48 mil? An offer like this will make that 5th year hard to hold onto.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd calculate the surplus values in the deal as follows:

 

Betts = +36 million

Price = -60.9 million

Verdugo = +75.5 million

Graterol = +18.9 million

Maeda = +1.8 million

 

This is crazy and I have Price valued even worse. Boston gives up 23.1 mil in value. They get 94.4 mil in value.

 

People hate it for Boston? As stated, that value for the 5th year of Yelich (add another prospect for MKE to offset the Price cap eat part of the deal) is about what they gave up for all 5 years of Yelich. MKE gets over 100 mil of surplus value for 1 year of Yelich which is +48 mil? An offer like this will make that 5th year hard to hold onto.

 

The people that hate it for Boston are the ones that like to just get mad at ownership. To be fair, also not everyone knows the ins-and-outs of Boston's salary situation or their upcoming tax.

 

If you tell someone that Betts + Price still probably doesn't give you great WS odds in 2020 and in 2021 and beyond you either lose Betts for nothing or you are deep into luxury tax territory giving Betts $40m/year (and keep Price) and have the same aging roster with not great farm system...and they STILL don't get it then they never will...because these people will not be happy until Boston or New York at $500m payrolls and the Brewers are at $350 (near-term).

[tmwiese55]

I am not a blame management type and am almost always on the MKE side on the screaming here, but I am on the side that simply a team of Boston's level should not let a 27 year old MVP leave. Sure if they have behind the scenes info that he just wants out and doesn't wanna be there, of course. And I don't blame them if right now they have a legit mega offer on the table and gave him the choice to take that or we have to trade if you are determined to hit FA and we have no leg up in the race (risk to lose for nothing type thing). From what I can tell though, none of that has happened.

 

Other than that, the mega market should just pay prime age MVPs and figure the rest out around it. If they're 33 like Pujols, yea they should be smart about it. They about clear the cost of Betts off just next year in the Cuban, Pedroia, the remainder of Hanley/Panda. They won't be that far off from getting under the cap. That Evaldi one is the real kicker, take that out and it could've really helped get closer.

 

They won the WS two years ago with this team, won mid 80s last year with a lot going wrong (Sale especially), it is not at all outside the possibility for them to make the playoffs again this year, especially if Sale rebounds. MEanwhile, keep being frugal on other contracts, don't go nuts at the deadlines blowing whatever young players you do have, within 2-3 years you'd be under the tax as these guys fall off and/or getting close to the end so it's much easier to trade. That's my take and it has nothing to do with them spending 500 mil. But, the points that have been made certainly opened my eyes that what they're doing here isn't crazy and there is a logic to all of it. I still lean the other way though.

[mattyo]

If we were going into Yelich's last contract year would a package of Verdugo and Graterol be enough in a trade?

 

Yes, without a doubt. Not even counting the fact that they got Price off the books.