How do you compare the value of a Relief Pitcher Vs a Starting Pitcher?

[3and2Fastball]

I’m hoping some of you wise folks can tell me your methodology for comparing the value of starting pitchers vs relief pitchers, especially if there is specific statistical data that you use.

 

The elite relief pitchers have lower WHIP & FIP numbers, but obviously pitch less innings.

 

In regards to the Brewers: how many of the Brewers starting pitchers are more valuable than Josh Hader? What about Corey Knebel (if he returns to 2018 numbers/production)?

 

How do you go about comparing the value of Josh Hader Vs Woodruff? (For instance).

[Ennder]

By far the hardest player on a team to give a value to is the RP. I don't know that anyone can answer this question because it depends so heavily on the leverage when the RP enters the games.

 

If I had to guess I'd say Hader is equal to like a really good #2 starter in value. But it would heavily be a guess.

[sveumrules]

Since 2017 Hader has posted 5.9 fWAR (66th), 7.2 rWAR (49th) & 7.26 Win Probability Added (10th), with (ranks) among all pitchers, not just relievers.

 

That seems to line up with the idea that an elite reliever is similar in value to a #2 starter. The highest reliever salaries have been around 18-19 million, which also generally lines up with the going rate for a #2 starter, Ryu just got 4/80 for instance.

 

In terms of comparing value between Hader & Woodruff (or any starter/reliever, really) it basically comes down to innings times FIP-/ERA- for me. Just using last year as an example you have...

 

Woody 121 IP | 82 ERA- | 67 FIP- | 3.0 rWAR | 3.3 fWAR

Hader 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 69 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.3 fWAR

 

As long as Woodruff keeps his ERA-/FIP- in the 75 range & stays healthy enough to make 25+ starts it would be tough for any reliever to match that value.

[sveumrules]

Just for some more data points, here is how Hader stacks up by WAR over the last three years versus some of this year's FA starters...

 

Hader | 5.9 fWAR | 7.2 rWAR

Wheeler | 9.1 fWAR | 7.0 rWAR | 23.6 million AAV

Ryu | 7.2 fWAR | 10.9 rWAR | 20 million AAV

Keuchel | 6.3 fWAR | 9.7 rWAR | 18.5 million AAV

Hamels | 6.5 fWAR | 9.6 rWAR | 18 million AAV

Odorizzi | 7.0 fWAR | 7.0 rWAR | 17.8 million AAV

MadBum | 6.2 fWAR | 8.8 rWAR | 17 million

 

Avg 2020 FA "#2 SP" | 7.0 fWAR | 8.2 rWAR | 19 million AAV

[MrTPlush]

One thing that I think is big is the meaningful of innings pitched. You can argue that almost every time Hader steps on a mound is very important. He is put into games when his production is almost a necessity. A starter, however, pitches every five days regardless.

 

So at face value these guys pitched the following innings:

 

Hader: 75

Scherzer: 172

Woodruff: 121

Verlander: 223

 

However, if your offense is scoring 6+ runs in a game your starter is probably not very meaningful. A lot of times your ace is totally wasted, the above three starters had 10 games combined where their offense scored 10 runs. The stats will love it and their value will rise, but really a bag of balls could have been the starter that day. I am just making a rough example here, but taking away each start where the offense scored 6+ runs this is what you have (estimated at 6 innings for each subtracted start):

 

Hader: 70 (took away some as do believe he had some garbage time innings.)

Scherzer: 106 (11 starts)

Woodruff: 49 (12 starts)

Verlander: 157 (11 starts)

 

Now don't nitpick the numbers to death because really I am just trying to show a starter has a lot of value that isn't all that important. I am sure some of the games I subtracted you could go back and see that the starter may have been a huge part of that high scoring win. However, when people say a starter pitched 3x more than an elite reliever it is kind of misleading. Pitching a bunch of innings in a blowout adds to the stats, but didn't actually provide much value. The only thing it would potentially help is resting the bullpen, but that is pretty hard to track.

 

Interestingly though, it seems Hader probably was more valuable and pitched more meaningful innings than Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff had crazy run support in 2019.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, that's the big question. Almost every inning a guy like Hader pitches is of the utmost importance, where even the ace-iest of aces inevitably ends up pitching a certain % of low leverage innings.

 

Win Probability Added attempts to account for that leverage difference & is one stat that ranks elite relievers in the same company as "#1 starters". Hader is 10th in WPA since 2017 & there are 13 relievers in the top 30 over that same time.

 

For just 2019 Hader was at 2.53 WPA compared to 1.35 for Woodruff.

[TJseven7]

Almost every inning a guy like Hader pitches is of the utmost importance

 

This. There's chicken and egg to it but this. Yes, you can't get to leverage innings as often if you starting staff doesn't hold a certain line, but having the ability to close the door on teams at a very high rate when you've gained an advantage is a very important and underrated ability. It's likely the reason why MKE has beat their projections 2 years straight and it's why they constantly beat their Pythagorean.

 

My stance on it doesn't come down to all these stat calculated value numbers but I'm sure it echoes them to a degree. I do think they under value leverage.

 

A starter who can't pitch better than 4.5 ERA ball is depth. They are nearly worthless. 2 mil type players.

A pen guy who can't pitch better than 4 ERA ball is entirely worthless. Min deal type players. They are up and down, and volatile year to year. The ones who can sit sub 2.5 year after year are every bit as special as SPs 1 step below ace level. There aren't 30 aces in the entire league.

 

That's your baseline. Anyone beyond that point is a detriment to the team.

 

After that it's all about impact. Aces throwing Sub 3 ball year in and year out are worth every penny they get. They are a value early in their deals (see Cole, Stras) and the only reason you don't invest in those guys as a mid market is because of duration of the deal. They will make you better and will be huge values until they decline. 7 years is a long time, so unfortunately those deals put you in a place where you win today but eventually lose. (and likely on a level that offset the early gains, which mid level markets can't afford to waste) This is why cost controlled multiple year top level starters are very expensive via trade.

 

I have Hader as more valuable than Woodruff, and see Woodruff as one of the few starters MKE currently has who is capable of unseating Hader. That will take a considerable step forward. That doesn't mean you should spend up on relievers either. Market dictates price, and you can snag some very good relievers on very friendly deals. (see Phelps)

 

It's basically a quest to get your starting pitching at 4 ERA staff wide as cheaply as possible. Starters are overpaid or get too long of a duration on their deals. Getting a starting staff sub 4 will either be expensive or require great drafting. Then to make your pen as strong as possible without paying anyone an absurd amount of money.

And something MKE has done a solid job of but aren't all in on is that when a pitcher comes up, they don't have to become a starter. They have to pitch where they are most valuable. Houser fits in that mold most directly for me. Starter 4.5 ERA. Reliever 1.5 ERA. One is a throw away. One is a big asset. Especially since he is a 2IP reliever which does increase his value. If Houser can't get to 4 ERA as a starter, I doubt he will match the value he'd have as a 2 IP between 2.5-3 ERA reliever. I see those as reasonable expectations.

 

I believe this is why MKE drafts so many college advanced arms. They are trying to get inexpensive 4.0 ERA guys and relievers. Taking the college advanced guys makes it more likely that they will achieve those marks. I also see no reason to think a college advanced guy (who is deemed mid rotation upside like Woodruff) can't end up as the lead starter in the 3.5 range. If you get 2 guys in that 3.5 range you are well anchored.

 

Having 2 above average 3.5 ERA starters is all you need. You have 2 guys at that range you need 2 throw away level starters to hit the 4ERA mark.

You need 5 guys in the pen sub 3.5 and 2 have to be sub 2.5.

 

Because as people pointed out, offense can make a starters start worthless. But having 5 guys who consistently put up 4 ERA as a group is going to give you a very good chance to be leading after the starter calls it a day. Game in and game out. Then the pen needs to finish it.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think there is a set way to evaluate it. A lot of it depends on how the pitchers are used. The Brewers relievers are probably more important to the team's success because the Brewers don't really let the starters go deep enough into games to make them nearly as valuable that same pitcher would be on a team with a more traditional approach to starters.

Short answer is get as many pitchers who are good at their role as possible and use the ones who are best at getting the desired results and don't worry about relative value of the role.