Bases Loaded, No Outs

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

https://tht.fangraphs.com/bases-loaded-nobody-out-what-happens-next/

 

Haven't seen this posted yet, so forgive me if I missed it.

 

Basic takeaway: Last year, the Brewers were the worst when they had bases loaded and no one out. That won't surprise folks in the IGT!

 

Of course, this seems basically random and uncontrollable, but it's the doldrums of January. So, have at it!

[MrTPlush]

Yes, we know. Someone made sure to mention it in every.single.IGT.

[TJseven7]

But we had Moose and Grandal instead of the scrubs we have now. How could this be?

 

How can the offense be as good as last year many wonder. Well, this could help.

 

Frankly, I think this has a lot to do with the make up of the team. I think these type of random happenstances chances increase when you have high walk OBP guys who also K a healthy amount and live on power. Contact heavy teams are less likely to suffer this type of statistical variance.

 

I think MKE has done a better job of adding contact bats and usually they don't do something without their numbers pushing them in that direction.

[MNBrew]

That consistent failure to capitalize on golden opportunities was a major flaw of last year's team --- all-or-nothing offense that was on the "nothing" side WAY too often. Heck, Moose & Grandal were putrid at driving in runners for a solid month after the All-Star game -- both solid if not dangerous hitters when they're on, but pretty useless when they weren't.

[Ennder]

This is almost certainly just random variance. This wasn't a particularly bad team for average and while it was high for strike outs part of that is because Miller Park inflates K's heavily so that is something they can't really escape. They were also a team that walks a ton so filled the bases more than most. The Brewers actually had a below average OPS+ last year so the offense as a whole was slightly below average, that explains at least some of it.

[Oxy]

I'm just going to post this link from the fangraphs article here for future reference:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

 

I've previously asked and looked for this data, and always only found data from 1998-2003.

[et bbal]

This is almost certainly just random variance. This wasn't a particularly bad team for average and while it was high for strike outs part of that is because Miller Park inflates K's heavily so that is something they can't really escape. They were also a team that walks a ton so filled the bases more than most. The Brewers actually had a below average OPS+ last year so the offense as a whole was slightly below average, that explains at least some of it.

 

Can someone explain how a ballpark can inflate strikeouts. I understand how ballparks can influence batting average, doubles home runs etc. (Obviously Coors field does this because of altitude and the big outfield). Conversely, I get ballparks can suppress runs (Miami, San Diego). Other ballparks favor left-handers while some favor right-handers. But, strikeouts seem like they would be independent of ballpark. It seems to me the make-up of the home team - hitters that k often and pitchers that strikeout out a lot of batters - would lead to this statistic,

[Ennder]

The batters eye has a huge impact on strike outs and walks. Weather and altitude can affect it. The mound itself can impact it as well. I would guess the size of the park matters as well as pitchers are more likely to go for strike outs in more homer friendly parks and the hitters are more likely to swing for the fences, but that is just a guess. Different people have tracked this in different ways and Miller always comes in the top 5. For some reason Seattle is generally #1, not really sure why that is.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd guess the day games and when the sun/shadows move from over the plate slowly over the pitcher in regards to ballpark increasing strikeouts. But generally I always thought the Batters eye(wall in outfield) was considered around the best in baseball. Or, maybe the Brewers as a team full of strikeout guys make it top 5. Just think Miller Park came about when the Brewers had Jose Hernandez who lead the league in strikeouts. Jenkins/Hall combo. Mike Cameron. Weeks/Hart combo Gomez/Weeks. Gomez/Davis/Reynolds. Carter/Villar. Entire team in 2017. Entire team in 2019. That has got to be a lot to do with it. And probably a lot to do with the Bases no out results having such a team filled with K players.

[Ennder]

They neutralize these by using comparisons between road parks and home parks. The team really has very little to do with the park adjustments. I mean the team can strike out a lot just because they have a lot of strike out guys, but those Mariners team's in the late 2000's that barely struck out still rated #1 or #2 in these stats.

[brewcrewdue80]

They neutralize these by using comparisons between road parks and home parks. The team really has very little to do with the park adjustments. I mean the team can strike out a lot just because they have a lot of strike out guys, but those Mariners team's in the late 2000's that barely struck out still rated #1 or #2 in these stats.

 

That's cool. I was just giving potential reasons why. The players for Milw or the Shadows during games increasing the ks. I really am unsure how you come about the rankings. We all know Miller Park is a top 10 hitters paradise so putting them top 5 for parks that increase strikeouts is just the opposite what you'd expect. How can it be great for hitters while being bad for Ks against hitters?

[Ennder]

Miller Park really isn't an amazing hitters park. It heavily inflates homers so it a good HR park. It also inflates walks. But overall it is middle of the pack or so for runs.

[timpep]

Miller Park really isn't an amazing hitters park. It heavily inflates homers so it a good HR park. It also inflates walks. But overall it is middle of the pack or so for runs.

 

 

So Miller Park inflates home runs, walks, and strikeouts? Maybe we should start calling it 3TO Park??

[MrTPlush]

Miller Park really isn't an amazing hitters park. It heavily inflates homers so it a good HR park. It also inflates walks. But overall it is middle of the pack or so for runs.

 

Except it actually doesn’t heavily inflate homers. More often than not I don’t think Miller Park even ranks Top 10 in HRs. I’m pretty sure this is some myth Bill and Brian shove down everyone’s throat when the Brewers rank incredibly high because they create heavy HR teams.

 

Does Miller Park sway somewhat HR/Offense friendly? Yes, it definitely does...but it simply is not the huge offensive playground it is often portrayed. It would probably be worse if there wasn’t a roof .

 

I looked it up once and the direct corners at Miller Park are actually fairly deep comparatively to other parks. What is shallow is the gaps...center being standard.

[Ennder]

It may not be top 1 or 2 in home runs but it is generally in the top half of the league. Every site does it a bit differently though and every year is a bit different. I think Miller used to be more HR friendly but at some point it moved more neutral. All it really takes is some addition to the stadium impacting a weather pattern to change things. I don't remember them changing the walls at all but it is the kind of thing I don't pay much attention to.

[brewcrewdue80]

It may not be top 1 or 2 in home runs but it is generally in the top half of the league. Every site does it a bit differently though and every year is a bit different. I think Miller used to be more HR friendly but at some point it moved more neutral. All it really takes is some addition to the stadium impacting a weather pattern to change things. I don't remember them changing the walls at all but it is the kind of thing I don't pay much attention to.

 

It may just be that other stadiums have moved their walls, like Seattle I recall. Atlanta's new stadium. I dunno. I still think Miller Park is great for the hitter.