RHP Pedro Strop to Reds - 1 year, $1.825 million ($3.5 million with incentives)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

The Reds have certainly made a lot of "splashy" type moves, juxtaposed to the Brewers' moves, which are definitely more the "under the radar" variety.

[patrickgpe]

waiting for the 15 posts now saying "I would have paid that if I was the brewers"

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

waiting for the 15 posts now saying "I would have paid that if I was the brewers"

 

I don't know if I would have or not. When looking at the numbers, David Phelps was a substantially better pitcher than Strop last year. Strop is also 1 1/2 years older than Phelps. Strop has better career numbers, but again, he was pretty bad last year, and saw a significant drop in velocity on his fastball.

 

I guess the way I look at it, Strop probably has a higher ceiling than Phelps, but also a significantly lower floor.

 

One thing I do like to see, though, is the mass exodus of bullpen pitchers from the Cubs. They've lost a ton from that area, and have added very little.

[Ennder]

Guys like this are just so hard to judge, hard to say if this is a good or bad deal.

[TJseven7]

I'd rather throw 1.825 mil at the wall and hope than go into the year knowing the team is short a pen arm. I'd rather gamble on Strop than start the shuttle day 1.

 

I had read 3-4 teams were after him and that his price was relatively high. This is that at all.

[JimH5]

That salary for a pitcher with Strop's resume isn't an overreach. The Brewers must have not have wanted him. We'll see it they were right.

[KeithStone53151]

I strongly prefer Phelps to Strop given the price. I would consider those 2 virtually a push from a talent perspective at this point.

[Roderick]

waiting for the 15 posts now saying "I would have paid that if I was the brewers"

 

Before the Phelps signing, sure. Now we are starting to see the bullpen.

 

Five pretty locked in: Hader, Claudio, Phelps, Peralta, Suter

 

Three from the ready to either swim or drown: Yardley, Williams x 2, Black, Guerra, plus whatever NRIs there ends up being

 

Almost there: Feyereisen, Wahl

 

Probably still need seasoning: Perdomo, Supak

 

Knebel in May for the weakest link.

 

The problem would be if they steal Suter for a starters spot. But that wouldn't be a Strop type that would be more like a Burnes type.

[monty57]

The problem would be if they steal Suter for a starters spot. But that wouldn't be a Strop type that would be more like a Burnes type.

 

Barring injury, I'd guess that if Suter (or less likely Peralta) wins a spot in the rotation out of spring training, it means that Houser is in the 'pen.

[danzig6767]

I strongly prefer Phelps to Strop given the price. I would consider those 2 virtually a push from a talent perspective at this point.

I'd rather have Strop

 

Prior to last season, Strop had six straight years of a sub-3 ERA, Phelps only did that once. Besides ERA, Strop has been much better at limiting guys getting on base.

[MNBrew]

Looks like Suter's going to be working in a longer-outing relief role:

 

"Stearns says Brent Suter will be lengthened out to be ready for multiple innings but is being looked at as a reliever at this stage."

 

link:

[TJseven7]

Looks like Suter's going to be working in a longer-outing relief role:

 

"Stearns says Brent Suter will be lengthened out to be ready for multiple innings but is being looked at as a reliever at this stage."

 

link:

 

Him and Peralta/Houser should be 2 IP guys. If they are looking at him as the long man that's a waste.

[JosephC]

After taking another look at the current bullpen makeup, I would have been all for opening the wallet and adding Phelps AND Strop.

[TJseven7]

After taking another look at the current bullpen makeup, I would have been all for opening the wallet and adding Phelps AND Strop.

 

Especially since both went for couch cushion money. Guerra's Arby projection was about the same as these 2 combined bases, even if you count the buyout/deferred money on Phelps.

 

14-18 the guy rattled off a 2.62 ERA and threw roughly 60 IP per year. Even has 19.1 IP post season '12 and 15-18. 1.86 ERA in those. I get that his FB velo dropped. His SL was still fantastic and the guy throws a good cutter. Throw less FB and more Cutters. Even throw only Cutters and Sliders. You are in the pen.

[Ennder]

Strop's 2018 was one of those really lucky type seasons, he was nowhere near a 2.26 ERA pitcher. There were definitely warning signs in 2017/2018 that the skills were slipping and then he was bad in 2019. That is why bullpen guys are so hard. It won't surprise me if he puts up like a 2.80 ERA on the year, but it also won't surprise me if he is a 4+ ERA guy and has just lost it. Take Sierra which is usually decent in small samples.

 

2012-2016 it was around 2.75 on average. 2017 it was 3.61, 2018 it was 3.69 and last year it was 3.94. It really seems like his skills are in heavy decline and have been for a few years.

[TJseven7]

Good points.

 

I see you and raise you.

 

Pick 2 of Ray Black, Devin Williams, Bobby Wahl and JP Feyereisen.

 

Are they better?

[Oxy]

Good points.

 

I see you and raise you.

 

Pick 2 of Ray Black, Devin Williams, Bobby Wahl and JP Feyereisen.

 

Are they better?

 

Since Williams, Wahl and Feyereisen can be optioned they aren't really in the same category as Strop and Black. In order to maintain flexibility you want as many guys with options as you can get. I wouldn't want Strop AND Phelps. I think we are done adding these mediocre veteran type guys. Either we get a clear upgrade(s) or we add NRIs or split contract type guys.

[TJseven7]

Part of the positive in having guys with options is that you can shuttle them.

Part of the positive in having guys with options is that you can stash them.

None of that guarantees they can't actually pitch at the MLB level. Right now a reasonable expectation for the pen includes Claudio who has an option. Black who could flame out and get cut. A wild card who is sure to have options. If we were to add Phelps and Strop you can eliminate the wild card in place of Strop. Only 1 guy that you'd consider shuttling has an option. 2 if Knebel doesn't break camp with the team due to rehab. All it will take is 1 flame out or one injury to push that to 3 right off the bat. I don't see flexibility being a problem with the wealth of players MKE has collected with options. I am far more concerned with having MLB quality pen pieces.

 

I agree with having as many guys with options as possible. I also agree with having as many choices as possible. Starting the year with guys who have options in the minors helps you have more choices. We talk about Phelps and Strop like they are nobodies. Jay Jackson was a nobody. Phelps isn't that. Strop has been that lowly level 2 times in the last 8 years and there's no promise than any of these guys with options will be better than him.

[Oxy]

Signing a veteran w/o options reduces choices though. I'm just not confident enough in bullpen guys, even veteran non-nobodies with low-ish ceilings like Phelps and Strop, to commit a contract to them that we'd either have to eat if he stinks or keep throwing him out there hoping that he improves.

 

A lot of this depends on Knebel, Wahl, Black and Peralta. I'm kind of counting on those guys to be in our pen, and that might not be the case. If those guys are not looking like good options then we might need to sign another MLB quality bullpen arm.

[TJseven7]

Right now MKE has

Hader Knebel (lets assume he starts the year) Suter, Peralta or Houser, Claudio, Phelps, Black. That's 7.

Let's say we have 8 other choices who have options.

If you put one in the bullpen day 1, you have 7 choices stashed.

If you sign another vet for the bullpen, you have 8 choices stashed.

 

More choices. More chances to get it right. Phelps was paid 1.25 mil, if he flops he's gone. Strop was paid 1.85 mil, if he flops he's gone. No different with Black. Eating a deal under 2 mil and eating a 6-7 mil pen piece is a totally different discussion. They canned Feliz when he flopped. They wouldn't hesitate to can Strop. They released Chacin and JJ last year.

 

I'm with you in that we both do not trust middle and lower level pen pieces. That's why I want as many as I can cram onto our roster because the more you have the better your chances of having 8.

[Ennder]

Good points.

 

I see you and raise you.

 

Pick 2 of Ray Black, Devin Williams, Bobby Wahl and JP Feyereisen.

 

Are they better?

 

Probably not but it is quite possible that he isn't. That is probably why the deal is so small and has the incentives because the Reds aren't sure either and neither is Strop. There are still a lot of RP out on the free agent market, Stearns may be holding out for the cheapest ones, he may want to leave room for young guys in our bullpen. I can't know that information. This is hardly a slam dunk must do deal though in my mind. Which says a lot given the small value of it.

[TJseven7]

Probably not but it is quite possible that he isn't. That is probably why the deal is so small and has the incentives because the Reds aren't sure either and neither is Strop. There are still a lot of RP out on the free agent market, Stearns may be holding out for the cheapest ones, he may want to leave room for young guys in our bullpen. I can't know that information. This is hardly a slam dunk must do deal though in my mind. Which says a lot given the small value of it.

 

I'm not broken up about it myself. There are a few other guys I'm interested in, and Phelps slipped past me on available targets. However, the whole redundant/we have guys with options stuff isn't without added risk and I don't want to forge ahead with unknown MiLB guys being counted on day 1.

 

I'd probably be happiest with Phelps and Cashner. (not as a starter)

[Oxy]

Right now MKE has

Hader Knebel (lets assume he starts the year) Suter, Peralta or Houser, Claudio, Phelps, Black. That's 7.

Let's say we have 8 other choices who have options.

If you put one in the bullpen day 1, you have 7 choices stashed.

If you sign another vet for the bullpen, you have 8 choices stashed.

 

More choices. More chances to get it right. Phelps was paid 1.25 mil, if he flops he's gone. Strop was paid 1.85 mil, if he flops he's gone. No different with Black. Eating a deal under 2 mil and eating a 6-7 mil pen piece is a totally different discussion. They canned Feliz when he flopped. They wouldn't hesitate to can Strop. They released Chacin and JJ last year.

 

I'm with you in that we both do not trust middle and lower level pen pieces. That's why I want as many as I can cram onto our roster because the more you have the better your chances of having 8.

 

The hook is A LOT slower for a veteran with a guaranteed contract than it is for a guy who can be shuttled to SA. I don't want a bullpen full of low upside veteran guys we are just waiting to cut...we might as well give a shot to Luke Barker or Rassmussen or Devin Williams. Then when they are shaky we can shuttle them down. When Phelps is shaky we have to wait it out for another 3 weeks before we are sure he is a complete flop before we cut him AND eat the contract. That's a lot of "lose" compared to just shuttling guys back and forth to SA.

[Ennder]

Cashner would definitely fit well since he can be a fill in starter when Anderson gets hurt and we need to get his replacement on the proper schedule.

[Roderick]

Looks like Suter's going to be working in a longer-outing relief role:

 

"Stearns says Brent Suter will be lengthened out to be ready for multiple innings but is being looked at as a reliever at this stage."

 

link:

 

Him and Peralta/Houser should be 2 IP guys. If they are looking at him as the long man that's a waste.

 

I agree. The long man comes in when the starter flames out in the third inning. So we are behind. We aren't going to waste Suter on these type of innings.

 

Now if he meant the starter got five innings in, and the game is close and they want Suter to go innings 6-8, instead of innings 6-7, that is fine. Whatever gives us the most leveraged innings with the assumption he is one of our best options in the pen.