Surprise Brewers' MiLB players who could contribute this season

[Roderick]

My surprise pick would be Lucas Erceg. Based on the offseason 3b options gathered, i can only determine the front office believes or is ready to promote Erceg in short fashion.

 

That would be a surprise since Erceg hasn't hit since rookie ball, has he?

 

Grisham was in that same boat. Good first year, then scuffled... until he broke out.

 

Grisham was always young for his league. Erceg was never young for his league.

[TJseven7]

Yeah April and August were nice.

May June July were sub 180/270 with an OPS of 630.

 

Shaw put up 286/437 with an ops of 1023 in AAA

 

What does Shaw's AAA have to do with any of my Erceg choice? I mean you see now what I'm holding on hope to. Remember it was his 1st full season go at AAA. Often you see players that make it to the majors break out a 2nd time through. Just think how long Tyrone Taylor has been at. Put up 3 months this year hes knocking at 800OPS door. Make it 4 and 900+ is in reach. That puts him on the radar for callup. It did with Grisham.

 

Just showing how far he has to go.

[brewcrewdue80]

My surprise pick would be Lucas Erceg. Based on the offseason 3b options gathered, i can only determine the front office believes or is ready to promote Erceg in short fashion.

 

That would be a surprise since Erceg hasn't hit since rookie ball, has he?

 

He played AA all of 2018 the first time there-688OPS. 2019 all at AAA-702OPS. Higher level so take an optimistic side that it was higher(probably 2hits)

As I mentioned his first month was well to the tune of 954OPS but followed with his worst month in May at 530OPS. 2 modest months above 700ops and 1month+2games below 620 OPS. 2nd time around let's see him have more months at 954OPS. Force his way in being promoted.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah April and August were nice.

May June July were sub 180/270 with an OPS of 630.

 

Shaw put up 286/437 with an ops of 1023 in AAA

 

What does Shaw's AAA have to do with any of my Erceg choice? I mean you see now what I'm holding on hope to. Remember it was his 1st full season go at AAA. Often you see players that make it to the majors break out a 2nd time through. Just think how long Tyrone Taylor has been at. Put up 3 months this year hes knocking at 800OPS door. Make it 4 and 900+ is in reach. That puts him on the radar for callup. It did with Grisham.

 

Just showing how far he has to go.

 

Oh wait you're talking about his 42games at AAA Last season at the age of 29 and ML experienced? Shaw for his career at AAA looks to be 774OPS after those 42games giving him a total of 200gms played at that level over 3seasons of time. You look at Shaw's first two seasons he hit 752OPS the first and 674ops the 2nd. At ages 24&25. Erceg was 24 last season. So by comparison to Shaw he's on the same timeline Shaw was which included him playing 3b for Boston that year 65gms and 813OPS. Wouldn't that be nice?

[Lathund]

My surprise pick would be Lucas Erceg. Based on the offseason 3b options gathered, i can only determine the front office believes or is ready to promote Erceg in short fashion.

 

That would be a surprise since Erceg hasn't hit since rookie ball, has he?

 

Grisham was in that same boat. Good first year, then scuffled... until he broke out.

 

Grisham in his worst year was still an above-average hitter (105 wRC+); he "didn't hit" in the context of a 1st round pick where more was expected, but he still hit. While offering value on defense and on the basepaths, as well as being young for his level every step of the way.

 

Erceg's wRC+ has been steadily dropping, with a 69 (not nice) in 2019 and 94 in 2018. He's been a worse hitter than Grisham overall, which is troublesome when you're both older as well as playing a premium offense position. .218/.305/.398 is a bad line for a 3B; it's even worse when it comes in one of the most hitter-friendly environments ever.

 

Which is not to say he can't find his way; you can look at someone like Mike Moustakas early MLB years for a similar kind of low BA/low OBP/low K%/low BB% profile that improved to see that it's certainly possible. I just don't think it's accurate to say that he and Grisham have had similar minor league careers. Or that he looks like someone likely to make an impact in 2020. which would make him a surprise contributor if it happens.

[clancyphile]

Grisham was in that same boat. Good first year, then scuffled... until he broke out.

 

Grisham in his worst year was still an above-average hitter (105 wRC+); he "didn't hit" in the context of a 1st round pick where more was expected, but he still hit. While offering value on defense and on the basepaths, as well as being young for his level every step of the way.

 

Erceg's wRC+ has been steadily dropping, with a 69 (not nice) in 2019 and 94 in 2018. He's been a worse hitter than Grisham overall, which is troublesome when you're both older as well as playing a premium offense position. .218/.305/.398 is a bad line for a 3B; it's even worse when it comes in one of the most hitter-friendly environments ever.

 

Which is not to say he can't find his way; you can look at someone like Mike Moustakas early MLB years for a similar kind of low BA/low OBP/low K%/low BB% profile that improved to see that it's certainly possible. I just don't think it's accurate to say that he and Grisham have had similar minor league careers. Or that he looks like someone likely to make an impact in 2020. which would make him a surprise contributor if it happens.

 

I honestly think Weston Wilson is more likely to make an impact in Milwaukee than Erceg. Not only has he done better, he adds more versatility, playing all four infield positions and both corner OF positions.

 

That being said, I think the 2016 draft class looks promising outside Erceg. Corey Ray had a monster 2018 when he was finally healthy. Corbin Burnes played a key role in 2018 for the Brewers. Zach Brown was doing well until 2019. Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry are arguably among the top 15 catcher prospects in MLB. Thomas Jankins didn't get killed in the hitter-friendly PCL. Braden Webb could put it back together. Wilson could easily be a solid bench option. Cooper Hummell was third among Brewers minor leaguers in wRC+ in 2019, trailing only Hiura and Grisham. Ryan Aguilar has always drawn walks, but improved his hitting in 2019.

 

Lots to look forward to from that year alone.

[TJseven7]

Oh wait you're talking about his 42games at AAA Last season at the age of 29 and ML experienced? Shaw for his career at AAA looks to be 774OPS after those 42games giving him a total of 200gms played at that level over 3seasons of time. You look at Shaw's first two seasons he hit 752OPS the first and 674ops the 2nd. At ages 24&25. Erceg was 24 last season. So by comparison to Shaw he's on the same timeline Shaw was which included him playing 3b for Boston that year 65gms and 813OPS. Wouldn't that be nice?

 

Unfortunately at the same ages Shaw was considerably better at every level.

22 A+

305/411/957 vs 256/307/724

23 AA

221/342/736 vs 248/306/688

24 AAA

262/321/752 vs 218/305/703

 

OBP and SLG go from considerably worse to just worse.

 

Wilson for reference

22 A-A+

254/323/701

23 A+-AA

270/326/759

24 AA again

231/324/739

 

And no one talks about Wilson except for Clancy.

[clancyphile]

Oh wait you're talking about his 42games at AAA Last season at the age of 29 and ML experienced? Shaw for his career at AAA looks to be 774OPS after those 42games giving him a total of 200gms played at that level over 3seasons of time. You look at Shaw's first two seasons he hit 752OPS the first and 674ops the 2nd. At ages 24&25. Erceg was 24 last season. So by comparison to Shaw he's on the same timeline Shaw was which included him playing 3b for Boston that year 65gms and 813OPS. Wouldn't that be nice?

 

Unfortunately at the same ages Shaw was considerably better at every level.

22 A+

305/411/957 vs 256/307/724

23 AA

221/342/736 vs 248/306/688

24 AAA

262/321/752 vs 218/305/703

 

OBP and SLG go from considerably worse to just worse.

 

Wilson for reference

22 A-A+

254/323/701

23 A+-AA

270/326/759

24 AA again

231/324/739

 

And no one talks about Wilson except for Clancy.

 

For me, Wilson's big selling point these days is the versatility and an OK bat. I have no clue on computing wOBA/wRC/wRC+, but he does seem to be someone who doesn't stink at the plate, and he holds down all four infield spots and LF/RF. To me, Wilson's rising based on a superb 2018 in the Arizona Fall League and a 2019 season that saw him boost his walk rate.

 

Is he an All-Star at the major league level? Maybe not. But what I think he can do is be a valuable bench asset due to hiss versatility and a power bat.

[MrTPlush]

Lucas Erceg was the top hitter in the entire system against Top 30 prospects on other teams. He probably shared a lot of those PAs with the likes of Grisham and Hiura. While both of those guys also rated fairly well in the system both were notably under Erceg. I use them as examples because A) They were productive in their first taste of MLB action and B) he likely faced a lot of the same Top 30 prospects as they all were at AAA last year.

 

Now I wouldn't take this as much because many times a Top 30 prospect isn't exactly productive, but those are still talented players they are facing. If anything its just some interesting data to look at.

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/prospects/stats/vs-top-30-leaderboard?type=batter

[Eye Black]

Mark Mathias is still considered a prospect and they gave up a solid young catching prospect to acquire him. I have a feeling he will make his major league debut at some point this season. I am not sure how much of an offensive impact he'll have, but it appears he can handle 2B/3B as well as possibly SS in a pinch. He seems like one of those guys that at least has a chance to put it all together and develop into a solid utility/bench role type player.