Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

[Ennder]

If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

 

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.

 

I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.

[Oxy]

If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

 

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.

 

I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.

 

Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.

[TJseven7]

If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

 

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.

 

I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.

 

Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.

 

This. Last year they had Chacin Davies and Anderson to anchor this rotation. Chacin coming off a great year and 2 guys who had done good work for years. Now its Woodruff and um hmm. Anderson is more injury prone than any of the top 3 last year. Lindblom is completely unknown compared to the top 3 of last year. Lauer simply hasn't been as good as the top 3 of last year.

 

Also last year there was a lot of hope in Woodruff Burnes and Peralta. 2 out of 3 were bad and that tarnished them a lot. Is there the same hope in Lauer Lindblom and Houser? Woodruff then is Houser now. Does not mean results be the same. Lindblom is no more of a sure thing than Burnes or Peralta were. Lauer is a safer bet I'll admit.

 

I think the established 3 of Chacin Davies Anderson beats the "established" 3 of Woodruff Lauer Anderson due to results and health.

I think the bottom 3 of Burnes Woodruff Peralta was no less certain than the bottom 3 of Lindblom Houser and Peralta.

 

As for my list of 3 pitchers and confusing you.

Woodruff Stripling Anderson Lauer Lindblom

Leaves Houser as next man up in the pen. (I also like Hader Houser Peralta Suter Cashner as 2 IP options, Phelps Knebel Black as 1s)

Bettis as 1st SP out of AAA

Cashner at reliever seems very promising to me and there are 2 spots where the guy we'll go with should and could start in AAA.

 

I want the stashed Miley in the minors. (Bettis) I want the Pom before people realize he's Pom. (Cashner) So we don't have to trade for them or suck for 2-3 months until we get them.

 

I really don't care about Freitas TWilliams RRodriguez and Yardley. 2 are 4A. 2 are mediocre low ceiling cast offs and 1 of those cast offs is redundant in our system.

 

The magic of this model is in its depth. BE AS DEEP AS POSSIBLE!

[Ennder]

Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.

 

The 6th and 7th guys are the guys who were actually in the rotation last year! That isn't less depth, it is more.

 

I am more confident in Woodruff this year than I was any pitcher in the rotation last year. I'm as confident in Lauer this year as I was any of those guys last year. When healthy I am more confident in Anderson than any of those guys last year. I'm more confident in Lindblom and Houser than I was the 3 rookies last year. Last year's rotation was terrifying, this years is much more comfortable.

[brewcrewdue80]

Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.

 

The 6th and 7th guys are the guys who were actually in the rotation last year! That isn't less depth, it is more.

 

I am more confident in Woodruff this year than I was any pitcher in the rotation last year. I'm as confident in Lauer this year as I was any of those guys last year. When healthy I am more confident in Anderson than any of those guys last year. I'm more confident in Lindblom and Houser than I was the 3 rookies last year. Last year's rotation was terrifying, this years is much more comfortable.

 

Boom. Agreed. Nailed what I've been arguing.

Woodruff>Chacin

Lauer>Davies

Anderson>Burnes

Lindblom=Peralta

Houser=Woodruff. When comparing staff starting 2019 vs staff for 2020. Peralta and Burnes are still on the team. Suter is back from TJ. Kneble will be back shortly from TJ. Im only skeptical of 1b/3b heading in to this season vs last, but we accomplished the playoffs with that area of Strength heading in to 2019 being a trainwreck.

Imagine a full season of Woodruff, Yelich, & Hiura? That's a lot a value added every time they take the field. Urias maybe at some point embarrasses the production Arcia has given to the team. Should feel far more excited than the vibe going around here.

[Oxy]

Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

 

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.

[TJseven7]

Lauer>Davies

 

That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

 

Lindblom=Peralta

Houser=Woodruff.

 

If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.

I don't believe the 2nd line at all.

[homer]

I love Woodruff but how many innings can we realistically expect out of him? He threw 125 or so including playoff game last year and never threw more than that in the minors. Can he be counted on for 180 IP?

[Ennder]

Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

 

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.

 

It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky.

[Ennder]

Lauer>Davies

 

That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

 

Yeah because it was just a trade of those 2 guys, weak.

 

Lindblom=Peralta

Houser=Woodruff.

 

If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.

I don't believe the 2nd line at all.

 

He is speaking expectations going into seasons. Yes I have more faith in Houser+Lindblom this year than I had with Peralta+Woodruff last year.

[superfly]

Failed MLB pitcher goes to Korea, works on things, gets a cheap deal to come back to MLB.

 

“I feel comfortable going into the season with him.”

 

It’s OK to be optimistic, but there shouldn’t be any sort of comfort whatsoever unless Lindblom was our depth guy. Let me know what flavor kool aid gets me to that position please. Did we just plain skip over the fact he tried KBO —> MLB once already and it was an unmitigated disaster?

[brewcrewdue80]

Lauer>Davies

 

That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

 

Lindblom=Peralta

Houser=Woodruff.

 

If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.

I don't believe the 2nd line at all.

 

Grisham was part of the deal and I think his upside outweighed their view on Urias' upside. Davies for Urias Grisham for Lauer.

This is my feelings of heading in to the season vs last season. ThoughI was super confident in Woodruff&Burnes.

 

Superfly re:Lindblom he's improved from the previous stint where that wasn't all that great. Last 2 seasons were much better than his 1st two. Where Im upside in him is handling a seasons workload. If healthy he should last 33 starts. Peralta couldnt do that last season, not sure he could this season. The MO for last season was starters going 5IP. I think we have a shot with three pitching in the 6th inning. Workload=less on bullpen.

 

Also Woodruff had. 158IP in 2016.

[MrTPlush]

I love Woodruff but how many innings can we realistically expect out of him? He threw 125 or so including playoff game last year and never threw more than that in the minors. Can he be counted on for 180 IP?

 

Innings limits are largely age based these days. Teams don’t follow the strict guidelines they once did. At 27 they likely wouldn’t limit him. I’d be concerned about his overall effectiveness if he started pushing 180+ just because he isn’t used to that.

[Warning Track Power]

When we start putting real expectations and predictions down for the season near the end of Spring Training, my surprise player will most certainly be Corbin Burnes. Corbin Burnes will be the 2020 version of the 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Yes, that is optimistic but the stuff is just too good.

[TURBO]

Lauer>Davies

 

That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

 

Lindblom=Peralta

Houser=Woodruff.

 

If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.

I don't believe the 2nd line at all.

 

Houser = Woodruff? hmmmm

 

Lauer > Davis, based on what?

 

Lindblom=Peralta Then why did we need Lindblom since we already have Peralta?

[TURBO]

Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

 

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.

 

It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky.

 

I don't see much difference i the risk factor to be honest...

 

This year's rotation looks no better than last year's imo.

[monty57]

I think much of last year's rotation going into spring training had a lot of potential, but little experience (high risk/high reward), while this year probably has a little less ceiling, with a higher floor (lower risk/lower reward). Knock on wood, but I don't think anyone will completely implode, but we probably won't have anyone step up and be a "true ace" starter. We do still have Burnes, Peralta, and others who have the potential to be better than average MLB starters. They'll just be in AAA or the bullpen "proving themselves."

 

Just my feelings here, but I think Woodruff will be solid if he stays healthy, Lauer will be a decent middle-of-the-rotation guy, and Anderson will be this year's Miley as he continues to throw more cutters. Lindblom and Houser are my wildcards. I think Lindblom will eat up a lot of innings, but I think he has the greatest variance (could be surprisingly good, or not-so-good). I really hope Houser builds on last year and develops into a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, but I think he may end up in the pen. I think that if Burnes starts the year in AAA and re-builds his confidence, he can be the guy who will come up and give us a boost mid-season and become a solid MLB starter.

[Ennder]

 

Houser = Woodruff? hmmmm

 

Lauer > Davis, based on what?

 

Lindblom=Peralta Then why did we need Lindblom since we already have Peralta?

 

 

Again we are talking about how people felt going into last year vs going into this year. Yes I'm more confident in Houser going into 2020 than I was in Woodruff going into 2019. Davis was coming off of a season where he was a mix of injured and just terrible, Lauer is coming off of back to back decent seasons. Peralta hadn't shown anything going into last year and we were worried he was going to have to move to the bullpen plus he wasn't stretched out to pitch a full season of innings.

 

Last year I commented before the season that the only SP in the rotation I had any faith at all in was Chacin and then I was ok with Anderson for a backup. This year we have Anderson, Woodruff, Lauer all as people I am comfortable with and I'm not really worried that much about Lindblom. He has risk just like a pitcher coming out of the minors but he is also stretched out unlike a guy from the minors. Pitchers coming from Korea have generally been successful in the majors.

 

I just am honestly surprised that people were so much higher on last years rotation. This one just looks so much less risky on paper that I don't understand it. Anyway this isn't going anywhere so I'll just let it drop.

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/which-mlb-teams-had-the-worst-offseasons-red-sox-astros-cardinals-make-list-of-disappointing-winters/

 

Here's an incredibly damning indictment on the Brewers offseason. This guy held no punches, completely skewered our offseason.

 

I'll leave his comments on the Brewers to your interpretation, but in what universe did the Cubs not have one of the worst offseasons of them all? They did literally nothing. While the rest of the NL Central got better(except the Pirates), they just figured they'd swap out a good manager(aside from bullpen management) with a rookie manager and still be able to compete? Nobody on their team aside from Hoerner and some bullpen arms have much upside over there, most of their guys are more likely to regress than improve from their 2019 seasons...especially their rotation. The teams that sold, did so as part of a strategy and the moves generally worked...the Cubs acted like a team that had no strategy and didn't really know what to do.

[homer]

I didn't think that was a skewering.

 

I did find it funny he used a 2016 offseason quote about Oakland as a comparison for this offseason for the Brewers seeing as the A's went on to win 97 games three seasons later.

[monty57]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/which-mlb-teams-had-the-worst-offseasons-red-sox-astros-cardinals-make-list-of-disappointing-winters/

 

Here's an incredibly damning indictment on the Brewers offseason. This guy held no punches, completely skewered our offseason.

 

I'll leave his comments on the Brewers to your interpretation, but in what universe did the Cubs not have one of the worst offseasons of them all? They did literally nothing. While the rest of the NL Central got better(except the Pirates), they just figured they'd swap out a good manager(aside from bullpen management) with a rookie manager and still be able to compete? Nobody on their team aside from Hoerner and some bullpen arms have much upside over there, most of their guys are more likely to regress than improve from their 2019 seasons...especially their rotation. The teams that sold, did so as part of a strategy and the moves generally worked...the Cubs acted like a team that had no strategy and didn't really know what to do.

 

I don't think it's incredible damning. After all, losing "staff anchor Kyle Davies" will really hurt us :-)

 

I don't think it's a bad write-up of the Brewers, but I do think the author falls into the group that thinks less money paid out is always a bad thing. For someone scrutinizing cost savings, you would think he would've been harder on the Cubs, who didn't just "not trade a core piece," but instead lost two of their best players (Hamels and Castellanos) to free agency and are still discussing trading away other pieces. That is a lot more cost savings than the Brewers are guilty of.

[Lathund]

Did we just plain skip over the fact he tried KBO —> MLB once already and it was an unmitigated disaster?

 

No, but we also realise the two are not the same. He wasn't very good before going to Korea the first time, and not very good *in* Korea that time. His second stint in Korea he changed his repertoire, and the results changed with it; More Ks, fewer BB, fewer hits allowed, fewer HRs. The KBO is worse than MLB, but he didn't go from a AAAA player to the best pitcher in KBO only by virtue of facing easier opposition. He got better, a lot better. Exactly what kind of MLB pitcher that translates to is hard to say, but I don't think it requires drinking any kool-aid to believe he can be a good pitcher for us this year. That doesn't mean being the kind of 6.5 IP/start sub-3 ERA pitcher he was in Korea the last two years, but I think there's a very good chance he's at least going to be the kind of pitcher Anderson and Davies have been over the last few years, probably a safe bet that he'll throw more innings too. And for a lot less money.

 

When we start putting real expectations and predictions down for the season near the end of Spring Training, my surprise player will most certainly be Corbin Burnes. Corbin Burnes will be the 2020 version of the 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Yes, that is optimistic but the stuff is just too good.

 

The kind of season Woodruff had might be hard to match, but I agree wholeheartedly with the idea that Burnes will have a good season. He's just too good not to. He wasn't good last year, mainly throwing too many meatball fastballs, and not finding success with the curve. But that slider was still a fantastic weapon. While Burnes has a fantastic ability at missing bats with all of his pitches, that slider stands out. Hitters swung and missed on that slider 58% of the time he threw it; now I don't know of a way to directly compare, but looking around at players with good sliders it was by far the highest I could find. Scherzer at 50% was the second highest I found, followed by Will Smith, Castillo and Hader all around 46-47%. Guys like deGrom, Cole, Kershaw, Verlander all cluster between 35-40%.

 

While the above is one pitch, and is just a part of what makes a pitcher, missing bats is still a hugely important part. Burnes is one of the best in the game at it. His issue has been that when he doesn't miss bats, the ball gets hit hard. Part of that is location and sequencing, that can improve. But it was also a chunk of bad luck in addition to that; he got hit hard, but also got unlucky with the result of those hard hit balls. So while it may look strange to say that a 9 ERA pitcher is only some small tweaks away from being a league average (or better) pitcher I still believe that to be the case. And that even the way he did pitch in 2019 was like a 5 ERA type of pitcher. I've been saying the same thing since even early last seaon, and while the turnaround is taking longer than I expected (which I think could well be in part psychological after the way he was shelled early on) I expect to see good results sooner rather than later.

[PeaveyFury]

[

 

I don't think it's incredible damning. After all, losing "staff anchor Kyle Davies" will really hurt us :-).

 

Yep. Very much a 'national sportswriter who doesn't know the Brewers at all sees Brewers didn't sign any big-name free agents and assumes they had a terrible offseason as a result' article.

[Warning Track Power]

[

 

I don't think it's incredible damning. After all, losing "staff anchor Kyle Davies" will really hurt us :-).

 

Yep. Very much a 'national sportswriter who doesn't know the Brewers at all sees Brewers didn't sign any big-name free agents and assumes they had a terrible offseason as a result' article.

It's amazing to me how writers like this continue to be employed. Literally, it takes about 15 minutes of research to really understand and breakdown the Brewers offseason and see how the payroll drop makes sense (not re-signing Grandal @ $18m and Moose at @ $16m per). Yes, losing those players hurt for 2020. However, signing those specific players at those specific salaries would have been albatrosses for the Brewers, possibly beginning in 2021.

 

Fortunately, The Athletic (minus Jim Bowden) has pretty solid writers who understand the nuance of baseball economics on small markets.

[TJseven7]

Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

 

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.

 

It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky.

 

I think beliefs like this are being fueled by hindsight and hope.