Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

[brewmann04]

I don't see the brewers better but if the rotation does bettter which is a big gamble. But I do like the rotation additions that have been made and think Freddie takes that 5th Spot. The dead spot is at 3rd imo.

[superfly]

They’ve done enough rearranging deck chairs on the titanic where IF everything goes as expected, no injuries etc they will be able to contend. There is no real power behind what’s gone on really though and 1 or 2 pitching injuries in particular they will be finished.

 

Now the Twins on the other hand...that’s what you call going out on a limb and trying to improve.

[TJseven7]

Overspending for a bunch of AAAA players to try and dupe the fans into thinking they are trying to compete.

 

They underpaid a lot of run of the mill MLB players. All these guys are 1 WAR players. AAAA guys are lucky to be 0.

[TURBO]

For the team as it sits today, a LOT of things are going to have to go right.

 

Margin for error is pretty low.

 

They could finish a game or two above .500, or they could go the other way.

 

I will be shocked if they win 85 or more, but won't be shocked if they win 75 either...

[clancyphile]

The more I think of it, barring a huge rash of injuries, I think this team has a high floor of 82 wins. The ceiling is probably the 89 wins from 2019.

 

Then again, there is always the unexpected.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's amazing how down so many of you are. Team as it sits has 4 All Stars that could jump up to 6 depending on how well the other two play. Think about that, who they are, who the 2 other could be? When have the Brewers had 6 potential All-Stars on their team? I think generally it was pushing 3-4 max heading in to a season.

[wntrtxn21]

That's amazing how down so many of you are. Team as it sits has 4 All Stars that could jump up to 6 depending on how well the other two play. Think about that, who they are, who the 2 other could be? When have the Brewers had 6 potential All-Stars on their team? I think generally it was pushing 3-4 max heading in to a season.

 

Who are the 6 potential All Stars ?

[TJseven7]

I'm not down on the team. I'm annoyed they haven't built in the veteran depth they should be adding in to make sure this can't go off the rails due to filler pieces blowing up.

 

You know, the bad start of last year. Chacin Burnes Peralta Jeffress losing Knebel. When this team floundered and sputtered until they stabilized at the deadline. AKA the reason STL was able to hold MKE off.

 

It's not going to be an easy go this year. You can't afford to lose due to being caught short. As you said they have a ton of talent and they can't waste a year like this over something foolish like assuming you can just turn to the farm if bad things happen. You can't let that be an anchor that drags your season down. It won't cost jack to fortify that better and they haven't done it.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's amazing how down so many of you are. Team as it sits has 4 All Stars that could jump up to 6 depending on how well the other two play. Think about that, who they are, who the 2 other could be? When have the Brewers had 6 potential All-Stars on their team? I think generally it was pushing 3-4 max heading in to a season.

 

Who are the 6 potential All Stars ?

 

Yelich and Hader is a given.

Woodruff and Hiura

Last two would be Cain on a 2018 season quality. And Narvaez. Grandal moved to AL. You have Realmuto but who can fill #2? Narvaez posts a 120OPS+ that would have to put him in the backup Catcher talk.

[et bbal]

That's amazing how down so many of you are. Team as it sits has 4 All Stars that could jump up to 6 depending on how well the other two play. Think about that, who they are, who the 2 other could be? When have the Brewers had 6 potential All-Stars on their team? I think generally it was pushing 3-4 max heading in to a season.

 

Who are the 6 potential All Stars ?

 

Yelich and Hader is a given.

Woodruff and Hiura

Last two would be Cain on a 2018 season quality. And Narvaez. Grandal moved to AL. You have Realmuto but who can fill #2? Narvaez posts a 120OPS+ that would have to put him in the backup Catcher talk.[/

 

And to add to that, 3 more former all-stars in Braun (declining, but coming off a good season), Garcia (2017) and Knebel. That is 7 players who have been all-stars and with the possible exception of Garcia who I really don't know much about, it is not like any of them were chosen because the team needed a representative. Pretty impressive whether Hiura or Narvaez become all stars this year or not.

[monty57]

For the team as it sits today, a LOT of things are going to have to go right.

 

Margin for error is pretty low.

 

They could finish a game or two above .500, or they could go the other way.

 

I will be shocked if they win 85 or more, but won't be shocked if they win 75 either...

 

If the Cubs or Cardinals went out and did something, I'd be more concerned.

 

Posters have shown that this year's Brewer team "on paper" should be around the talent level of last year. Meanwhile, the Cubs have done little and are trying to pull off a late trade of their best player to get under the luxury tax "cap," and the Cardinals have lost Ozuna and their most significant move was trading Martinez for Liberatore, who spent last year in A ball.

 

If the Cubs don't trade Bryant, and they add other players to fill hole, and if the Cardinals actually do pull off a trade to improve their team, then I think we can lament the many moves the Brewers did this offseason. Until then, the Reds are the only team to improve this offseason. The Pirates are in rebuild, and the Cards and Cubs should be less talented then they were in 2019, while the Brewers should be around even talent-wise to last year.

 

I know the Brewers have questions, but the other teams in the division have just as many.

[bigredrobbo]

The division winning Cardinals are undoubtedly worse.

 

The moneybags of the division Cubs are undoubtedly worse.

 

The Pirates are still awful, and poorly run, so I don't see that improving drastically soon.

 

The Reds have improved significantly, but have disappointed in previous seasons after "improvements".

 

Brewers have probably stayed the same, some areas better (depth, starters), some worse (offensive production, team defense).

 

So, enough to be a contender? For the division? 100% they have. Any further than that depends on a lot going our way, but I can see high 80s for wins without too much optimism.

[AKCheesehead]

I think they’ve done enough to be in the scene at the trade deadline. I think a big part of the success of this season hinges on having some guys in the minors have a great first half. Then we have trade ammunition as well as room to take on salary when opportunities knock.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

100% they will be a contender for the division. Whole NL will be tough. They need to get to trade deadline within striking distance like they have the last 3 years. Get there and anything can happen. As evident from taking over the cubs the last two weeks of 2018. And 2019 roaring back after Yelich injury. Paper teams never win games. I like this team MUCH better than the last two years.

[Oxy]

100% they will be a contender for the division. Whole NL will be tough. They need to get to trade deadline within striking distance like they have the last 3 years. Get there and anything can happen. As evident from taking over the cubs the last two weeks of 2018. And 2019 roaring back after Yelich injury. Paper teams never win games. I like this team MUCH better than the last two years.

 

The optimism is admirable, but last years team was looking pretty good coming into the year. A healthy Knebel, a good Jeffress, Travis Shaw (and to a lesser extent Aguilar), Cain and Braun being a year younger, Moustakas, Grandal...Corbin Burnes looking like he was going to step into becoming a quality starter, Chacin coming off a career year and looking to repeat...Anderson and Davies as reliable depth pieces.

 

A lot of things went wrong last year and they still made the playoffs.

 

This years team is a bunch of spare parts cobbled around a few all stars and a couple of youngsters. If everything goes right they'll make the playoffs...if things go like they did last year with this roster they'll win 70 games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

100% they will be a contender for the division. Whole NL will be tough. They need to get to trade deadline within striking distance like they have the last 3 years. Get there and anything can happen. As evident from taking over the cubs the last two weeks of 2018. And 2019 roaring back after Yelich injury. Paper teams never win games. I like this team MUCH better than the last two years.

 

The optimism is admirable, but last years team was looking pretty good coming into the year. A healthy Knebel, a good Jeffress, Travis Shaw (and to a lesser extent Aguilar), Cain and Braun being a year younger, Moustakas, Grandal...Corbin Burnes looking like he was going to step into becoming a quality starter, Chacin coming off a career year and looking to repeat...Anderson and Davies as reliable depth pieces.

 

A lot of things went wrong last year and they still made the playoffs.

 

This years team is a bunch of spare parts cobbled around a few all stars and a couple of youngsters. If everything goes right they'll make the playoffs...if things go like they did last year with this roster they'll win 70 games.

 

I feel like you just made the argument for why they'll be good again. Almost all of those things went wrong and they still won because there is more talent and know-how in the FO than what you are giving them credit for. Narvaez and Garcia aren't spare parts. Shaw and Aguilar were useless, ate a bunch of at bats and they still won. It'll be hard for even the yuck factor of Sogard and Gyorko to be as useless as Travis Shaw was. Burnes gave away a bunch of games and they still found a way. Cain won a GG but was clearly hurt all season, was only slightly above useless for much of the year offensively.

 

I often say fans overlook regression and just assume the following year will be like the last, but Brewers fans actually seem to be dismissing development, I guess because they are upset about FA. I don't think you've seen anywhere close to the best of Hiura, Woodruff or Burnes who I still believe in.

 

I like the 2020 offense much more than 2019. I think there will be a lot of depth and exploiting of matchups and fewer dryspells/spots in the order where we get little to no production. I don't really care about the SP as it has never been the oil for the team in any of the last 3 years. They'll hit just fine. They'll sink or swim with whatever they end up getting out of the RP.

 

Things can always go horribly wrong but there's no reason to believe they can't be in the 85-90 range again and I don't think that's just blind optimism at all.

[benji]

We will see on Monday but it appears PECOTA is not going to be a fan of the Brewers.

 

 

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[JohnBriggs12]

They may be good enough to be in the race leading up to the trade deadline, but they also have enough question marks that could lead to an early season slump and end their chances well before the trade deadline. If they do manage to stay alive, they are going to need at least one and likely two significant deals at the deadline to stay afloat to the end.

[Ennder]

I wouldn't think PECOTA would like the Brewers. It is notoriously harsh with playing time for non full time players so I would imagine it is going to undervalue a lot of Brewers this season.

[benji]

True but it did have the Brewers at 89 wins last year. Granted not they we all predicted lol

 

 

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[Lathund]

Yeah I'd look more at the aspects that don't factor in playing time, which for PECOTA would be DRC+ (hitting) and DRA (pitching). So while PECOTA team projections aren't out yet, the spreadsheet with individual projections is.

 

Quite interesting to see that it projects Luis Urias as having the 3rd most WARP among the Brewers position players, with above-average offense. And that it's not a big Hiura believer; which is also pointed out in one of their articles about surprisingly highly or lowly projected players. In Hiuras case it's a combination of on the one hand the sophomore slump effect that projection systems will have by nature and which I would imagine is stronger for someone like Hiura with a grand total of only ~1200 professiona PAs to project from. And on the other hand the very high whiff rate (and thus K rate)and shifting profile; basically it doesn't believe that he can maintain both the power and the contact.

 

On the pitching side what stands out is that PECOTA really likes Woodruff. Like a lot. Projects him as the 18th most valuable pitcher. Hader, Peralta, Lauer and Burnes make up the rest of the top 5 in WARP. Suter, Claudio, Black, Rasmussen are all relievers who grade out as well above average on their pitching metric DRA-. That Hader ranks highest there with a 59 DRA- is probably not a surprise. Or that Woodruff is second of the players on the team with 83. But more surprising perhaps that Jay Jackson (Since projections, like ZiPS does too for example, includes players who were there at the end of the season) would have been 2nd with 79 DRA-. And yet more surprising would be the third lowest DRA- on the team; I don't think he'd be one of the first 10 guesses for anyone; J.P Feyereisen. Also interesting is how the projections differ on Josh Lindblom; ZiPS and Steamer has him around a league-average starter with a solid ~2 WAR. PECOTA has him at almost exactly replacement level.

 

Anyway, hard to get an overview from the spreadsheets really, so looking forward to Monday. But from a glance I would think that while ZiPS and Steamer projected the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Reds all within a few wins of eachother, PECOTA look to be lower on the Brewers.

[sveumrules]

These are the win ranges I would place each of the NL postseason contenders in at the moment...

 

95-105: LAD

90-100: WAS, ATL

80-90: STL, MIL, CHI, CIN, NYM, PHI, ARI

 

At this far too early juncture my best guesses would be LAD wins the west, then WAS/ATL get the east & a wild card. I feel like ARI has the inside track on the other wild card since the west will likely be the weakest overall division, though SD should be interesting with all the youngsters.

 

It looks like ZIPS has the four NL Central contenders within about five wins of each other, so we'll probably need a hundred sixty two tree games or so to figure it all out again.

[Eye Black]

While the PECOTA projections don’t appear they will be overly kind to the Brewers on the whole, the Clay Davenport standings projections currently have the Brewers at 85 wins overall, and 2nd place in the NL Central while just one game behind the Reds.

[stalton]

To be a contender? Absolutely. To actually win the division? Time will tell.

[TJseven7]

If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

 

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.