Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

[TJseven7]

Linblom is the glue that makes or breaks what Stearns offseason will be graded as. He comes in carries an ERA below 3.7 and pitches 160+ then Stearns has won this offseason overall.

 

This is very much the case. I think 3 guys specifically are the litmus test for the brewers staff.

Lindblom has to be a 4.0 ERA guy who carries a good number of innings.

Anderson has to be the guy from last year and give this team at least 25 starts.

Knebel has to be the stud he was in 2017-2018.

 

If Knebel is back to form Hader doesn't have to close. We still don't have the SU guy that I want, but Knebel Hader makes a quality top 2 in the pen. That allows Peralta/Houser Suter and Phelps to be the next 3. Claudio Black and X are good enough for the last 3. The shuttle can find a solid bottom 3. However, if Knebel comes back and is a low to mid 4 ERA in the pen, (and he was only studly in 2017. 2018 was a solid 3.5) the entire pen short wires and Hader is again forced to end games. Phelps or Houser/Peralta are forced to be the other top arm in the pen and the dominos start tumbling.

 

Woodruff Lauer I believe will be fine. Lindblom being an inning eating solid 4 ERA would really solidify the top 3. If he land between that and the 3.5 ERA 2018 Chacin year, that boost would be huge.

Anderson for 25 starts would cover most of a 4th spot and I have enough faith in Houser or Peralta to be the 5.

 

It doesn't take a lot for things to get real bumpy. It doesn't help that our farm doesn't look likely to send anyone to the MLB before the deadline area of the season. That's why I think they are a run of the mill 4.2-4.3 ERA SP and sub 3 ERA SU short.

 

As for the, DS isn't adding because there aren't options. Chicken and egg argument there. Guys fall all the way through the market. Capable MLB guys. I think there are a number of them still out there still. Then we say the 40 man is full but if they've already stashed Faria and are about to stash Guerra. Is Taylor Williams Ronny Rodriguez and David Freitas any different? That's 3 more spots. Yardley could be 4.

 

Was scanning to see what's still out there on the "scrap heap." I've already been talking about Cashner in the pen for awhile. His numbers when moved to the pen in Boston were not bad (would have been better if his BBs didn't oddly spike) and he can go to a 3 pitch mix where all 3 are solid offerings. Can start in dire emergency. Starter had me bothered because of a lack of depth veteran options. Chad Bettis is actually a fairly interesting opportunity. Hurt to end the year but its a 6 month rehab so he should be fully back in the near near future. Numbers outside of Colo were 4.4 ERA which isn't great (in 2018 10 starts 59.1 IP 2.88 ERA is pretty great though) but its also not going to kill you, see Houser. Would allow Houser to pop back into the pen with Peralta if he shows well in ST. Due to the injury, MiLB +40 man spot deal? Like Healy. That could fit and add in that depth. Colorado pushed him into the pen last year. Tell him if he takes a 2 way deal you will use him as a SP. Makes a ton of sense for him to come to MKE and try to get right on a 1 year deal.

[monty57]

If Knebel is back to form Hader doesn't have to close.

 

This could be interesting. I don't think anyone here will doubt that if Knebel is back to 100%, the Brewers' best bullpen has Knebel closing allowing Hader to play the role he had in 2018.

 

Unfortunately, the arbitration system is still archaic, and pays more money to relievers who rack up saves. That means Hader will not be happy if he gets moved back to the position where he provides the most value, as it could cost him millions of dollars.

 

When he got placed in the bullpen, Hader was nonchalant, and said something like "I don't care where I pitch, as long as I'm pitching." I hope he keeps this attitude if he gets moved off the closer role.

[Ennder]

So I'm just going to go by bWAR here and compare things to last season.

 

SP - 2.9 bWAR. That seems doable but certainly not a given, this may be what costs the team.

RP - -4.1 bWAR. While people thought it was a strength last year the bullpen was a disaster outside of Hader. I think they can probably improve on this.

C- 0.5. I think they can match this but this value seems really low, I guess baseball reference isn't very pro framing.

1B - -0.8. I think they can easily beat this bar.

2b - 0.9. Again I think Hiura easily beats this.

3B - -0.6. Shaw was an anchor last year, Sogard and Gyorko easily pass this number.

SS- -2.2. Worst SS set in the league. I think Arcia beats this even without Sogard and Urias but the set of them beat it for sure. Getting rid of Hernan Perez is a huge boost to value.

OF - 5.6. This is really the part of the team that drove everything last year. I like their odds to repeat it with the addition of Garcia for depth. Hopefully Cain is more healthy next year though with his age it isn't a given.

 

I think the team overall is 2 or 3 games better than last season right now. A lot of how we improved was getting rid of negative players and a couple injuries could put a bunch more PA into negative players, but I feel like this team has a lot of depth. We had a lot of things really go wrong and I would hope it wouldn't be so bad this year. I do think last years team probably overproduced in wins though so that 2-3 games probably translates into about the same as last year. Mid to high 80's in wins if we don't get an injury stack at SP and if Yelich is healthy most of the year.

[RobDeer 45]

I think the team has done enough to be a playoff contender, as long as we have more good luck than bad. Making the playoffs has a lot to do with avoiding injury and a majority of key players having reliable years. The other part that's hard to figure out is, if we are competitive, will we be able to add someone key before the deadline. This can always change the outcome significantly. I see us having a chance to make the playoffs but probably being overmatched if we do. I've learned to trust Stearns and Counsell. I'm excited to see them play and see how Counsell works his magic with this roster. Go Crew!

[TJseven7]

I think the team has done enough to be a playoff contender, as long as we have more good luck than bad. Making the playoffs has a lot to do with avoiding injury and a majority of key players having reliable years. The other part that's hard to figure out is, if we are competitive, will we be able to add someone key before the deadline. This can always change the outcome significantly. I see us having a chance to make the playoffs but probably being overmatched if we do. I've learned to trust Stearns and Counsell. I'm excited to see them play and see how Counsell works his magic with this roster. Go Crew!

 

To major pieces this is the case. If we lost Yelich Hiura or Hader, yeah the team is in trouble. To not so major pieces, I say we need more depth in the pitching staff. Luck is a factor. Leaving your season up to luck is highly avoidable.

[RobDeer 45]

I think the team has done enough to be a playoff contender, as long as we have more good luck than bad. Making the playoffs has a lot to do with avoiding injury and a majority of key players having reliable years. The other part that's hard to figure out is, if we are competitive, will we be able to add someone key before the deadline. This can always change the outcome significantly. I see us having a chance to make the playoffs but probably being overmatched if we do. I've learned to trust Stearns and Counsell. I'm excited to see them play and see how Counsell works his magic with this roster. Go Crew!

 

To major pieces this is the case. If we lost Yelich Hiura or Hader, yeah the team is in trouble. To not so major pieces, I say we need more depth in the pitching staff. Luck is a factor. Leaving your season up to luck is highly avoidable.

 

Well said. Organizational depth is key. Sometimes it's not as easy to maintain it when you have to be careful with your budget, and you've felt the need to make trades. You can at times leave your self very thin. I guess what I'm saying is I agree but I also think it's not just something that's easy to always have, especially in a smaller market.

[TJseven7]

I don't agree with the small market premise.

 

Phelps was a piece that helps protect against Knebel not returning to top form. Cashner and Bettis would be pieces that help with pen and SP depth stability. Kintzler is the same. All 4 of these guys could be had for roughly 8-10 mil combined. That's a lot of options pushing towards stability. That's not a lot on any MLB budget.

 

Won't save you from a loss of Woodruff or Hader. Will help a lot if Lindblom Houser don't pan out. If Anderson or Lauer get hurt.

Farm depth and how they build options laden players into the system is a big positive but the way they build they have to use all avenues to their fullest.

[wntrtxn21]

I don't agree with the small market premise.

 

Phelps was a piece that helps protect against Knebel not returning to top form. Cashner and Bettis would be pieces that help with pen and SP depth stability. Kintzler is the same. All 4 of these guys could be had for roughly 8-10 mil combined. That's a lot of options pushing towards stability. That's not a lot on any MLB budget.

 

Won't save you from a loss of Woodruff or Hader. Will help a lot if Lindblom Houser don't pan out. If Anderson or Lauer get hurt.

Farm depth and how they build options laden players into the system is a big positive but the way they build they have to use all avenues to their fullest.

 

If Stearns was going to spend $8-10M more I would much rather have McHugh and Walker (if healthy).

I'm really starting to wonder about the health of both those guys, but if they are ready to go, I'd take them over Cashner and Bettis.

[TJseven7]

If Stearns was going to spend $8-10M more I would much rather have McHugh and Walker (if healthy).

I'm really starting to wonder about the health of both those guys, but if they are ready to go, I'd take them over Cashner and Bettis.

 

Walker is officially toast. It was posted in another thread that he held a workout for 20 scouts recently and his FB was in the 85-88 range. He was throwing 94 when he was pitching at his best. That dream theoretical (that I shared earlier on) is dead and gone for 2020.

 

McHugh was a guy I had highly on my list as a pen piece early on. I've heard nothing about him, but injury is the very likely holdup at this point.

[Ennder]

I think at this point the roster spots are probably a bigger deal than the money. They are at the point where they don't have that many guys they want to ditch for super small depth upgrades. There is probably room for 1 or 2 more of these guys and there is still time to sign 1 or 2.

[TJseven7]

I think at this point the roster spots are probably a bigger deal than the money. They are at the point where they don't have that many guys they want to ditch for super small depth upgrades. There is probably room for 1 or 2 more of these guys and there is still time to sign 1 or 2.

 

Frietas, TWilliams and maybe Yardley and Rodriguez.

[3and2Fastball]

On paper at least the Brewers have created a very good amount of depth among their position players. I’m a little concerned about their starting pitching depth

[Ennder]

I think at this point the roster spots are probably a bigger deal than the money. They are at the point where they don't have that many guys they want to ditch for super small depth upgrades. There is probably room for 1 or 2 more of these guys and there is still time to sign 1 or 2.

 

Frietas, TWilliams and maybe Yardley and Rodriguez.

 

You have to keep in mind that they need to have spots they can replace mid season as well. The Brewers tend to pick up 4 or 5 guys mid season as well. They signed 5 guys in April last year. They signed 3 more in July. You still need a little flexibility going into the season. I think every move they make from here on out has a lot of discussion about roster availability around it, it isn't just about the money at this point.

[brewcrewdue80]

On paper at least the Brewers have created a very good amount of depth among their position players. I’m a little concerned about their starting pitching depth

 

Nope not at all concerned at SP depth.

Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser.

 

Peralta, Wilkerson, Burnes, Brown, after that Clancy can probably add 7 more. Depth is not a problem. Performance and outcomes may be but lets have 3SPs hit the DL first before concern settling in. Meanwhile you have numerous spots to put that depth if you want in the bullpen. Burnes went 7-0 in 2018 there. Where does the depth in your mind stand if/when Burnes and Brown start pitching to below 3ERA at AAA? Now they're blocked wasting away at AAA. Burnes & Brown really put a damper on how too many feel negative about the Brewers pitching. They werent injured like Nelson. Just had a really poor season to expectations. And its as if well their career is over. Like pitchers especially much older(Miley) reinvent themselves in one offseason but these two aren't capable of bouncing back? Yeah no, I fully expect one to be valuable for the team in 2020 and if possible even both.

[TJseven7]

You have to keep in mind that they need to have spots they can replace mid season as well. The Brewers tend to pick up 4 or 5 guys mid season as well. They signed 5 guys in April last year. They signed 3 more in July. You still need a little flexibility going into the season. I think every move they make from here on out has a lot of discussion about roster availability around it, it isn't just about the money at this point.

 

And those spots are only needed when someone has flamed out and needs to be tossed away. Burnes down Albers Jeffress Chacin etc. If you don't have holes, you don't need to add guys. If you start with this many question marks, you will have holes, you will need to trade from the farm to fill them.

 

On paper at least the Brewers have created a very good amount of depth among their position players. I’m a little concerned about their starting pitching depth

 

Nope not at all concerned at SP depth.

Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser.

 

Peralta, Wilkerson, Burnes, Brown.

 

Nope, you very much should be concerned with SP depth. There is ZERO chance they go to Wilkerson. They refused to at all cost last year. Burnes Brown and Supak couldn't pitch at AAA last year. If one fails or gets hurt early, you have 2 options. Suter and Peralta. Those options moving out of the pen weakens the pen which they also can't afford to do.

[BrewFan130]

To be honest I haven’t a clue what to expect from the 2020 Brewers. I do know that the team will miss both Moustakas and Grandal’s bats and the current roster doesn’t positively compensate for their loss. I do expect improvements on the pitching front, of course that’s assuming a healthy pitching staff throughout the season.

I’d love to see the Brewers bring Luc back to possibly platoon 1B and more importantly be a strong veteran presence for younger catchers. I don’t think he’s drawing a ton of demand on the market.

 

The Reds have definitely improved on paper, but I thought they under performed last year. They show signs of being able to contend but seem to let it slip away.

[Jopal78]

To be honest I haven’t a clue what to expect from the 2020 Brewers. I do know that the team will miss both Moustakas and Grandal’s bats and the current roster doesn’t positively compensate for their loss. I do expect improvements on the pitching front, of course that’s assuming a healthy pitching staff throughout the season.

I’d love to see the Brewers bring Luc back to possibly platoon 1B and more importantly be a strong veteran presence for younger catchers. I don’t think he’s drawing a ton of demand on the market.

 

The Reds have definitely improved on paper, but I thought they under performed last year. They show signs of being able to contend but seem to let it slip away.

 

Luc as in Jonathon Lucroy?

 

He hasn’t hit in years. Since the end of 2017: .237/.297/.338. There’s no interest in him because his bat sucks and his defensive skill set has eroded. He’ll be lucky to get an NRI deal.

 

Back to the point: I’m sure the Brewers have identified available players they like but they have to get them at the right price. Mathias, Ronny Rodriguez, Yardley etc. probably have a tenuous grip on their 40 man spot to begin with

[brewcrewdue80]

You have to keep in mind that they need to have spots they can replace mid season as well. The Brewers tend to pick up 4 or 5 guys mid season as well. They signed 5 guys in April last year. They signed 3 more in July. You still need a little flexibility going into the season. I think every move they make from here on out has a lot of discussion about roster availability around it, it isn't just about the money at this point.

 

And those spots are only needed when someone has flamed out and needs to be tossed away. Burnes down Albers Jeffress Chacin etc. If you don't have holes, you don't need to add guys. If you start with this many question marks, you will have holes, you will need to trade from the farm to fill them.

 

On paper at least the Brewers have created a very good amount of depth among their position players. I’m a little concerned about their starting pitching depth

 

Nope not at all concerned at SP depth.

Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser.

 

Peralta, Wilkerson, Burnes, Brown.

 

Nope, you very much should be concerned with SP depth. There is ZERO chance they go to Wilkerson. They refused to at all cost last year. Burnes Brown and Supak couldn't pitch at AAA last year. If one fails or gets hurt early, you have 2 options. Suter and Peralta. Those options moving out of the pen weakens the pen which they also can't afford to do.

 

You're right on Wilkerson. For some reason I thought he made two or three starts last season. Im still not concerned. You gave a better option in Suter at #7. The way you are speaking towards Brown, Supak,and Burnes gives the impression the team shouldn't waste another day with them in the organization. Got it, right? And they especially cant be thrown in to a bullpen role seeing as a failure for 1 season of AAA games as starters completely proves how terrible they will be if thrust in to that role when Peralta and/or Suter is pulled from their bullpen role in to a starter role? Got it, right?(Burnes 7-0 2018 RP)

[sveumrules]

I do know that the team will miss both Moustakas and Grandal’s bats and the current roster doesn’t positively compensate for their loss.

 

Grandal 2017-19 | 117 wRC+

Narvaez 2017-19 | 115 wRC+

 

Grandal 2019 | 121 wRC+

Narvaez 2019 | 119 wRC+

 

Omar has been about 2% worse than Yasmani with the bat, both in 2019 & over the last three years.

 

As for Moose he had a 137 wRC+ as a 2B, but only a 104 wRC+ at 3B, which is a much lower bar to clear. The bar at 3B gets much lower once you include Shaw's 242 PAs of 33 wRC+.

 

All told in 2019, between 2B/3B the Brewers got a total of 4.1 WAR last year. I believe the players currently on hand to cover those two positions should be able to exceed that total. Hiura could beat it himself, which would make any 3B production we get in 2020 gravy compared to 2019.

 

Sure we lost Moose/Grandals's 1,200+ PAs of about 116 wRC+, but we also lost 950 PAs of about 59 wRC+ from Shaw/Aguilar/Hernan/Spangy/Saladino.

[Ennder]

 

And those spots are only needed when someone has flamed out and needs to be tossed away. Burnes down Albers Jeffress Chacin etc. If you don't have holes, you don't need to add guys. If you start with this many question marks, you will have holes, you will need to trade from the farm to fill them.

 

 

Sometimes, but sometimes not. You are trying to talk about this stuff in absolutes and it simply is not cut and dry. It is very plausible that a team releases a guy at the end of spring training and the Brewers want them for depth and it has nothing at all to do with someone flaming out. It just isn't that easy.

[Bulldogboy]

No. Not even close.

[TJseven7]

The way you are speaking towards Brown, Supak,and Burnes gives the impression the team shouldn't waste another day with them in the organization. Got it, right? And they especially cant be thrown in to a bullpen role seeing as a failure for 1 season of AAA games as starters completely proves how terrible they will be if thrust in to that role when Peralta and/or Suter is pulled from their bullpen role in to a starter role? Got it, right?(Burnes 7-0 2018 RP)

 

Well for starters, Brown was left unprotected for the rule 5 draft. It's not my stance that they shouldn't waste another day on him but they made that possible.

I have a lot of faith in Burnes having a role with MKE going forward. I'd like to see him show he's back before I count on him for anything in 2020.

Supak, I just don't know but he fits the same mold as Burnes. I'd like to see him succeed a bit a AAA before I count on him.

 

There's talent down there. I don't dispute that, but expecting any of it before July is overly optimistic in any role. There's a big difference from being glad a player is in the system and knowing there's still time to wait, and thinking you can just plug them into the MLB roster without consequences.

[TJseven7]

 

And those spots are only needed when someone has flamed out and needs to be tossed away. Burnes down Albers Jeffress Chacin etc. If you don't have holes, you don't need to add guys. If you start with this many question marks, you will have holes, you will need to trade from the farm to fill them.

 

 

Sometimes, but sometimes not. You are trying to talk about this stuff in absolutes and it simply is not cut and dry. It is very plausible that a team releases a guy at the end of spring training and the Brewers want them for depth and it has nothing at all to do with someone flaming out. It just isn't that easy.

 

It is cut and dry. You add the best players you can to the 40 man. You buy as much value as possible. If someone else gets cut that you want, find a guy on your 40 that you want less and get rid of him for the new guy.

 

If a guy is cut and you don't like him more than TWilliams and Yardley then you really don't need the spot.

[brewcrewdue80]

The way you are speaking towards Brown, Supak,and Burnes gives the impression the team shouldn't waste another day with them in the organization. Got it, right? And they especially cant be thrown in to a bullpen role seeing as a failure for 1 season of AAA games as starters completely proves how terrible they will be if thrust in to that role when Peralta and/or Suter is pulled from their bullpen role in to a starter role? Got it, right?(Burnes 7-0 2018 RP)

 

Well for starters, Brown was left unprotected for the rule 5 draft. It's not my stance that they shouldn't waste another day on him but they made that possible.

I have a lot of faith in Burnes having a role with MKE going forward. I'd like to see him show he's back before I count on him for anything in 2020.

Supak, I just don't know but he fits the same mold as Burnes. I'd like to see him succeed a bit a AAA before I count on him.

 

There's talent down there. I don't dispute that, but expecting any of it before July is overly optimistic in any role. There's a big difference from being glad a player is in the system and knowing there's still time to wait, and thinking you can just plug them into the MLB roster without consequences.

 

So you're almost understanding where I'm coming from. The way you seem to be approaching this though is that the team is already down 1 or 2 SPs and in my argument about the 3 in depth, we're trotting out 1 or two of Burnes, Supak,or Brown come Opening Day. It's not in my approach that the team can expect 3weeks to a month's worth of starts from the planned starting 5. Doing so takes us in to May. And every week thereafter closer to July in your suggested timeframe to consider relying on the trio of depth. I don't see it that way simply because by that stage you're now behind the 8-ball in regards to the trade deadline. You wait til July to feel comfortable on calling up from that trio you're not giving a long enough sample size to say, "I'm comfortable with so or so heading to the Postseason and have no desire at a trade to improve on what so or so is producing in his 3-4week sample size" Playoff roster is basically set.

So on that, I have no problem calling on Burnes, Supak, Brown because the way the roster is constructed you dont need them Opening day. And every week down in AAA is showing off who fits the pecking order on the need to call one of them up. Now you're approach is valid if come Spring Yraining through to Opening Day and we've gotten to a place where Pitchers are headed to IL to begin the season or all of the season. When that jappens though, I'd expect Stearns to make a trade like a Claudio to support that unlucky occurrence. But say Burnes is lights out in Spring Training. I think they try him again from Opening day as the bandaid. Gotta stay flexible and reasonable.

 

Last add. Brown can play in Milw's minors. Had a team picked him for rule 5 they have to play him on their ML team. What is your argument against Brown currently? That he's not ML ready. So why is another team going to play him from Opening Day on their 26man roster? Not allowed to play him in the minors? That was the caveat Stearns was able to leave him exposed. Brown would have had to make it what til August? On that teams 26man or be returned to Milw.

[TJseven7]

And my point is that bad things happen and when you aren't prepared for them you need a special September or your season is done.

 

We can't afford to waste years where we have a cost controlled superstar. 3 games could have changed 2019 dramatically. They blew those games before the trade deadline.

 

Why? Because bad things happened.