Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

[TJseven7]

Well bullpens are so random year to year that it is a super hard question to answer. There is a lot of upside the the bullpen but well there isn't a ton of certainty. I do think you are underselling it some though. Wahl seems to have real potential. Knebel is coming back. Williams and Black have potential etc, even Claudio wasn't really bad last year. It is really hard to know with bullpens. I think bullpens are really important in today's game but out of all of the positions on a team they are the hardest to predict as well.

 

Underselling one area, and I boast about another.

 

If this pen was handled to the level MKE needs, the AAA pen would have been an AAA murderers row. I see the incredible depth there and I don't have issues with Claudio Williams Black (and half of Clancy's list) being the last 3 pen pieces to start the year. It's the middle to depth of SP that's thin. It's 1 top and 1 middle that's lacking in the pen.

 

It's similar to many position groups the NFL. If you have a 1 and a bunch of 4s it won't work. If you have a 2 and a couple 3s it won't work. You add in 1 more piece and all of a sudden the whole group looks dramatically better. This is because it puts guys on the proper rung of the ladder.

 

MKE is missing a few connecting pieces. They need another 4 in the rotation. They need a 1 and a 4 in the pen. Right now you have to dream to perfect to see it work the way you'd want. If they added those connecting pieces and things went perfectly they'd dominate in the pen. If it didn't go perfectly they'd be able to survive it quite well.

 

MKE can't survive anything going wrong in the pitching groups the way they are constructed right now. Lindblom is bad, torpedoed. Anderson gets hurt, light the fuse. Houser can't start, the dominos start to fall. It's really uneasy. It wouldn't take a Cole or something crazy. It needed a few pieces though. Right now, they are exactly where they were heading into 2019 and frankly I don't think it's wise to risk the first 3 months of the season being a hole you need to dig out of. You can always trade guys out to make room for guys who force their way up the ladder. Once FA ends, good luck adding in guys if the pieces you have don't pan out.

 

Jeffress 850K wildcard

Kintzler went for 3 mil and is a sub 3.5 guy.

Cishek has been that 2.5 guy for years and he went for 7 mil.

 

It's not break the bank stuff. It's fortifying the position to make sure it starts (before surprises and flops) at stable. You're going to take your fair share of punches during the season. They can't afford to get tagged right now.

 

Truly this staff is a Cishek and Kintzler away from being pushed to stable and it really frustrates me that they put all the pieces together with two middling pieces left to go and walked away from the puzzle.

Woodruff

Anderson Lindblom Lauer Houser (you can go to Peralta Suter Burnes)

Hader Cishek

Kintzler Peralta Suter

With Knebel in our back pocket and the collection of AAA guys.

4 options to start the 5th spot with a built in extra option for the pens top 5. That is needed to step into the void if they have to swap Suter or Peralta into the rotation.

 

Then if everything goes perfect and Knebel is a stud again, Burnes finds himself and wins the 5th starter job, every starter stays healthy, Lindblom is a find and Rasmussen pushes to the MLB after super 2.

Woodruff

Lindblom Lauer Anderson Burnes

Knebel Cishek

Hader Peralta Suter Rasmussen Kintzler

 

Is contention worthy. I just want a team prepared for bad things to happen and a team that can blow the roof off if good things happen. They are 2-3 pieces short and if bad things start to happen they won't have an answer and any lull can cost you a year.

[clancyphile]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

 

You are 100% right but here's my question. Is the trash heap big enough in the pitching department? I don't think they collected enough "trash" to sort through until they find something of worth.

 

Where we differ is that I think a lot of the "hidden treasure" isn't exactly trash heap - it's developed.

 

San Antonio will have Shelby Miller from the "trash heap" in their rotation. They also will have Corbin Burnes, not long ago considered a top-flight prospect until he was shelled in most of his 2019 outings. But a lot of the others are prospects, like Trey Supak, Zack Brown, and Thomas Jankins. The San Antonio bullpen is going to be centered on legit prospects like Drew Rasmussen, Angel Perdomo, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Clayton Andrews. In Biloxi, the rotation will have Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Aaron Ashby. That also doesn't include the possibility of Freddy Peralta having at least a slider to go with his fastball - and that could make him a legit rotation piece instead of a dominating bullpen asset.

 

I've said it a lot, but I really think that the "treasure" that is found this year will come more from prospects than the usual "trash heap" that we've seen the last two or three years.

[TJseven7]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

 

You are 100% right but here's my question. Is the trash heap big enough in the pitching department? I don't think they collected enough "trash" to sort through until they find something of worth.

 

Where we differ is that I think a lot of the "hidden treasure" isn't exactly trash heap - it's developed.

 

San Antonio will have Shelby Miller from the "trash heap" in their rotation. They also will have Corbin Burnes, not long ago considered a top-flight prospect until he was shelled in most of his 2019 outings. But a lot of the others are prospects, like Trey Supak, Zack Brown, and Thomas Jankins. The San Antonio bullpen is going to be centered on legit prospects like Drew Rasmussen, Angel Perdomo, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Clayton Andrews. In Biloxi, the rotation will have Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Aaron Ashby. That also doesn't include the possibility of Freddy Peralta having at least a slider to go with his fastball - and that could make him a legit rotation piece instead of a dominating bullpen asset.

 

I've said it a lot, but I really think that the "treasure" that is found this year will come more from prospects than the usual "trash heap" that we've seen the last two or three years.

 

I don't question how they handled that side of it. MKE's pitching success has come through the farm and vet reclamation projects. Equal parts of each. In 2019 they leaned on the farm and it flamed until Gio Lyles Pom Suter came in to balance it out. Move forward to 2020 and they still got the farm side covered but much like 2019 we don't have equal parts.

[clancyphile]

Where we differ is that I think a lot of the "hidden treasure" isn't exactly trash heap - it's developed.

 

San Antonio will have Shelby Miller from the "trash heap" in their rotation. They also will have Corbin Burnes, not long ago considered a top-flight prospect until he was shelled in most of his 2019 outings. But a lot of the others are prospects, like Trey Supak, Zack Brown, and Thomas Jankins. The San Antonio bullpen is going to be centered on legit prospects like Drew Rasmussen, Angel Perdomo, Quintin Torres-Costa, and Clayton Andrews. In Biloxi, the rotation will have Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Aaron Ashby. That also doesn't include the possibility of Freddy Peralta having at least a slider to go with his fastball - and that could make him a legit rotation piece instead of a dominating bullpen asset.

 

I've said it a lot, but I really think that the "treasure" that is found this year will come more from prospects than the usual "trash heap" that we've seen the last two or three years.

 

I don't question how they handled that side of it. MKE's pitching success has come through the farm and vet reclamation projects. Equal parts of each. In 2019 they leaned on the farm and it flamed until Gio Lyles Pom Suter came in to balance it out. Move forward to 2020 and they still got the farm side covered but much like 2019 we don't have equal parts.

 

If we believe the reports, then the Brewers have the following breakdown on their 40-man/NRIs:

Starters: Woodruff, Houser, Peralta, Burnes, Lindblom, B. Anderson, Lauer, Castillo, Miller, Supak

Relievers: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Claudio, Black, Wahl, Feyereisen, D. Williams, T. Williams, Faria, Grimm, Yardley, Guerra, Perdomo

 

On the prospect front for the rotation, the Brewers will have in AA/AAA:

Z. Brown, Jankins, File, Bettinger, Francis, Ashby, Zavolas,

 

On the bullpen side, it's led by:

Rasmussen, Andrews, Torres-Costa, Olczak, Barker

 

Then there are sleepers. A big one is Michael Mediavilla. Missed some time in 2019, but in that year and 2018, his career ERA is under 1.00, he has a 7.29 K/BB ratio, and a career WHIP of 0.640. I wouldn't be surprised if he rocketed through the system.

[wntrtxn21]

I saw Mediavilla pitch in Appleton twice last April. He's a big dude (6'5-6'6) and a lefty. He really dominated the hitters he faced. I guess the one drawback I saw is that he was quite a bit older than the hitters he was facing.

[clancyphile]

I saw Mediavilla pitch in Appleton twice last April. He's a big dude (6'5-6'6) and a lefty. He really dominated the hitters he faced. I guess the one drawback I saw is that he was quite a bit older than the hitters he was facing.

 

I agree about the age... but these numbers jump out BEYOND what would be normal age difference, I think.

 

A career 0.640 WHIP, two years of sub-1.00 ERAs, and a career 7.29 K/BB speak volumes. He could easily rocket up.

[monty57]

The Cubs finally have a ruling on the Bryant grievance. I don't know why it took so long, but Bryant lost and the Cubs retain two years of "control."

 

I bring this up because the Cubs are obviously trying to trim payroll. If they trade Bryant, their outlook is a lot different than if they have him, which in turn affects the Brewers' chances of winning the division.

[TJseven7]

If we believe the reports, then the Brewers have the following breakdown on their 40-man/NRIs:

yadda yadda yadda

 

Clancy, you can name off a million kids who've never done anything in the MLB and I frankly don't care. I know that list too. The difference of thought that we have is you seem to think you can just toss these lambs to the wolves and everything'll be just fine from the jump.

 

That doesn't happen very often.

 

Lauer replaces Davies, Lindblom replaces Anderson, Anderson replaces Chacin. Woodruff remains.

2019 we speculated that Burnes Peralta could handle it. Then forced Houser into trying a starting gig. No one you list is any different than the unknowns they were last year. Supak, sucked in AAA. Castillo not even starting anymore in AA. As I said, yadda yadda.

 

Miley, Gio, Lyles, Pom. The veteran options we are looking at beyond the guys who are starting (guys who are replacing other established veterans) are Miller and Grimm. That's very uninspiring.

 

Thank god we signed Phelps. It adds one more guy who has actually been in the majors and has succeeded in the majors. Being optimistic about the farm is fine. You can't trust it. You can't just toss it into the majors as a contending team. That's what rebuilding or bottom out teams do. If MKE wants to contend all of those guys you are listing down the road have to be seen as BONUS opportunity. You can't count on it. They'd loaded up the bonus arms. They need more vets.

 

I'll happily swap Kintzler for Phelps. Seems to be a push. They are still 1 more vet starter option and 1 more high end BP guy from being a contending team. That can't wait until July and the list of guys you keep typing over and over, very few have a rational chance of being anywhere near the majors before July. Be excited about rule 5 guys who weren't picked by other teams because they don't want to put them on the MLB roster. That's fine. Stop acting like they can just jump into the majors and hold their heads above water.

 

Burnes didn't. Peralta couldn't as a starter. Woodruff his 1st go round was merely acceptable. Houser as a starter was also just acceptable. Taylor Williams and Jacob Barnes have put up gaudy farm numbers too and they have flopped on their faces. You can't have multiple spots taken up by guys who have NEVER if you want to be a good team. You load up on the guys you list and you make them force their way to the majors. You don't just chuck them at the wall and hope because you could go through a ton of them very quickly and find out that none of it is ready.

 

They still need to protect for an injury to the starting rotation. They still need to protect that possibility that Knebel won't be a stud again in 2020. Mediavilla is in A ball. He's not helping you there. Devin Williams wasn't good. He's not helping you there. QTC was passed over by the league. He's not just jumping into the majors and becoming a fireman. That's not how it works. You could go back 3 years and find the list of all the farm guys who had our attention and most of them today would be exactly where they were or nowhere at all.

[Ennder]

I think that is a fair statement TJseven7 but at the same time I think Stearns has done a good job getting those veteran guys mid season so you have to give him a little bit of benefit of the doubt. My guess is we still bring in someone like Drew Smyly or Dan Straily. Some guy that you don't have to give big money to that can take a spot if they are pitching well but it isn't a requirement. I think they want to see what they have now and not block it with someone more established right now.

[monty57]

Good post TJ77, but a small market like the Brewers does need to give kids chances, even when they are "trying to win." Hindsight 20/20, we obviously went too far last year trying to put three rookies in the opening day rotation, but there should be a happy medium between there and "can't trust a rookie."

 

Ideally, I'd like to see a few rookies break in every year. This means that there will always be a decent number of pre-arby guys on the roster, which allows us to afford some high-priced guys. When someone's playing for league minimum, they don't have to be really good to be valuable. As we saw this offseason, once they hit arby and start to become expensive, they can be jettisoned and replaced once their price exceeds their production.

 

Middle relievers and bench/utility guys are the "easy" positions to fill with guys who aren't top prospects, but can play at the MLB level for league minimum. No one should hand these guys a set-up or closer role, but if you have a fairly solid back of the bullpen, I'm fine giving a middle reliever spot to someone who is unproven at the MLB level. Very few prospects will be like Hiura, who can step in from day one and be a star, but there is room for lesser prospects... at least as long as the pre-arby system remains set up the way it is.

 

I get that we'd all like stars (or at least "proven") at every position, but if paying a couple guys $550,000 to be decent back-ups allows us to give eight figure salaries to some of our good players, there's value there. "Proven" costs money, and isn't always better than "unproven."

[Fear The Chorizo]

Good bullpens can be developed consistently by adding a couple of veteran arms/camp invite signees looking for bounceback years as long as you have a couple studs to solidify high leverage innings. The key is maintaining the roster flexibility to churn through a number of the scrap heap relievers that don't pan out and replace them with guys who do. Stearns has done a very good job at building a good bullpen ever since the disaster that was their pen the 1st half of 2017 hampered their postseason chances, and he's done it without spending big in free agency or prospect capital so he can afford to prioritize those avenues with starting pitching/position player roster spots. Their pen was pretty good last season even after losing Knebel and Wahl before opening day and having a diminished Jeffress towards the back end most of the season. Hader alone made the 1st half bullpen good despite his occasional struggles to keep the ball in the park, and the addition of Pomeranz made it a strength again down the stretch. We all remember how the wildcard game ended - but if not for a HBP off the knob of the bat and a fluky shattered bat single up the middle the Brewers probably win that game.

 

The Brewers currently have a good number of mid-high minor league arms to help solidify bullpen depth if/when they need it, too. Stearns now has a track record pointing to having a really good pen by August of every season, which has been a big part of why they've played very well in the last two months of recent seasons and put themselves in postseason position.

[Warning Track Power]

As others have mentioned, I think the NL Central is going to be a tight four-way race. Now, I think the question is, on January 30, 2020, which team would you PREFER to be going into the season? At this point, I would PREFER to be the Reds and it has everything to do with the rotation. A 1-2-3-4 of Castillo, Bauer, Gray, and Miley could be superb in 2020. One could make the argument, not saying that it's right, that each of those players is better than the Brewers #1 Woodruff. Predictability-wise, I'd go with the known quantities of those four over Woodruff, Houser, Lindblom, and Lauer.

 

Having said that, the Brewers function in a way that is abnormal to use as fans. They overachieve and it's beautiful to see. Perhaps we have been beaten down by the Brewers history where they always seemed to underachieve and die come August, but under Stearns and Counsell, they have often overcome more talented rosters, specifically the Cubs and their supposed rotational supremacy.

 

Have the Brewers done enough to be contenders? Yes. Have the Brewers done enough to be favorites in the NL Central? No.

[clancyphile]

Good post TJ77, but a small market like the Brewers does need to give kids chances, even when they are "trying to win." Hindsight 20/20, we obviously went too far last year trying to put three rookies in the opening day rotation, but there should be a happy medium between there and "can't trust a rookie."

 

Ideally, I'd like to see a few rookies break in every year. This means that there will always be a decent number of pre-arby guys on the roster, which allows us to afford some high-priced guys. When someone's playing for league minimum, they don't have to be really good to be valuable. As we saw this offseason, once they hit arby and start to become expensive, they can be jettisoned and replaced once their price exceeds their production.

 

Middle relievers and bench/utility guys are the "easy" positions to fill with guys who aren't top prospects, but can play at the MLB level for league minimum. No one should hand these guys a set-up or closer role, but if you have a fairly solid back of the bullpen, I'm fine giving a middle reliever spot to someone who is unproven at the MLB level. Very few prospects will be like Hiura, who can step in from day one and be a star, but there is room for lesser prospects... at least as long as the pre-arby system remains set up the way it is.

 

I get that we'd all like stars (or at least "proven") at every position, but if paying a couple guys $550,000 to be decent back-ups allows us to give eight figure salaries to some of our good players, there's value there. "Proven" costs money, and isn't always better than "unproven."

 

Exactly.

 

I would also add, that the Brewers NEED to have a pipeline where young players come up and fill spots - whether as key backups, bottom of the rotation, or the middle-relief/mop-up roles in a bullpen - then the money saved can maybe keep a proven player around longer and expand a window, or bring in that free agent for a year or two.

 

At some point, the Crew has to trust the kids in those spots at the very least. And if some get the opportunity (see Trent Grisham), they could emerge as solid contributors or even stars themselves. Furthermore, they have to be willing to look at results. With Keston Hiura graduating and the trade of Trent Grisham, the top returning minor-league hitter in terms of wRC+ is... Cooper Hummel (https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/11/25/20982116/milwaukee-brewers-cooper-hummel-prospect-interview).

 

So, while we hope to see Nottingham, Erceg, and Ray break out to their potential, it makes no sense to dismiss the chance that Hummel, Weston Wilson, and Ryan Aguilar could be contributors to Milwaukee.

[Warning Track Power]

At some point, the Crew has to trust the kids in those spots at the very least. And if some get the opportunity (see Trent Grisham), they could emerge as solid contributors or even stars themselves.

Or trade those pieces for players that fill gaps in other spots on the roster. With Yelich, Braun, and Cain on the roster, coupled with the signing of Garcia, Grisham was out of places to play. Using Grisham the OF prospect to trade for Urias the SS prospect, was a stroke of genius given the abundance of OF depth and the dearth of SS depth.

[clancyphile]

At some point, the Crew has to trust the kids in those spots at the very least. And if some get the opportunity (see Trent Grisham), they could emerge as solid contributors or even stars themselves.

Or trade those pieces for players that fill gaps in other spots on the roster. With Yelich, Braun, and Cain on the roster, coupled with the signing of Garcia, Grisham was out of places to play. Using Grisham the OF prospect to trade for Urias the SS prospect, was a stroke of genius given the abundance of OF depth and the dearth of SS depth.

 

That is, of course, another benefit for a deep farm system. But you have to be willing to trust those kids at some point.

 

Fill the 4/5 slots of the rotation with a Dylan File or Thomas Jankins - and see what happens. Maybe we find the next Woodruff or Davies. Maybe you don't pay Chacin $8 million a year... you're paying $750,000. What does that extra $7.25 million do for the team?

[TJseven7]

The Brewers currently have a good number of mid-high minor league arms to help solidify bullpen depth WHEN they need it

 

Changed it a bit because this is the flip side of the, well you have to give kids a chance at some point stance being said as a rebuttal.

 

If you go into the season with veteran options in place (Lets say for instance Guerra in 2019, JJ in 2019, Phelps in 2020) some of them won't pan out. Some of them will get hurt. 162 games is a very long time. A very very long time. The kids chances will happen naturally for them.

 

If you go into the season counting on kids (Lets say for instance Burnes Peralta Houser) quite a few will not pan out immediately. Some won't be good, some will be initially over matched. If they flop, now what? More kids? Time to scour the WW to see who they can scoop up and get up to speed?

 

This is a depth/bench marks based model of a baseball team. MKE gains an advantage by having "next man up" in place. They weather the chaos of the season very well because of depth. When you fall short of those bench marks you waste games. You can't win the division if you waste games. Our depth prevents us from wasting games. But when you lead with kids, and behind them you have more kids you are at risk of doing just that.

 

Hader forced his way to the majors and pushed his way into a fireman role by dominating in non-leverage situations. He was given garbage man stuff at 1st and he dominated in a way that pulled the team out of the fire. That Yankee's game stands out. You see his leverage moving upwards in his games log.

Grisham forced his way to the majors. (and really wasn't that good in his first time through)

Houser was worth a pen spot, and was forced into a starter spot where he survived. That happened only because

Burnes was handed a starting spot and failed. He earned his pen spot in 2018.

Peralta who had shown well in the pen was pushed back into a starting spot and failed.

 

Woodruff got forced into some starts (and earned it) in 2017. He pushed his way back up into the pen in 2018. He took the starting role in 2019.

Burnes pushes his way up into the pen in 2018. 2019 he got handed a starting role.

 

Things work out if you let them take their course. By adding a vet starter, and a SU man you aren't blocking anyone. If they earn the spot they'll get that spot. You just aren't going in expecting them to earn it. There are 3 spots in the pen that are low impact and open competition but you have to take care of the top 5 spots. If youth puts themselves in that bottom 3 and produces they'll force their way into the top 5. That's the course. If Burnes started 2019 in AAA and he pitched well, I'm fairly certain he'd have been given the call when Chacin sucked. His time would have still come but instead of him clogging up the 25 man roster with youth, he'd be stashed in the minors and MKE might have had Lyles or Gio on the roster day 1.

 

Putting vets in place to add to the level of competition throughout the depth of this team doesn't hold back anyone. It makes it easier to have stability over the full year and it makes it easier to have a quality 13 arms. It adds options to sort out. Opening day isn't a time for kids. They start in the minors they prove they are the best option and when a domino falls (and they always do) then it's their time.

 

There's a very obvious reason for this. Kids are easier to stash than Vets. Stashing vets into the minors is very tough to do so it stands to reason that you stack up some vets on the MLB squad and stash the kids and away we go. Let the sorting begin. Again we aren't talking expensive vets because David Phelps is nowhere near expensive. JJ isn't expensive, Strop isn't expensive. Cashner won't be expensive. ETC ETC. But it takes a Shelby Miller and Jason Grimm to get a MiLB deal on a vet. (Yes I know they did this with Miley and explaining this should make it resonate with you how HIGHLY UNLIKELY that salvage job was) It's better to work from OLD to YOUNG.

 

As said above, DS does a great job about churning the WW as the season is going on. He's done a great job of grabbing filler looking trade pieces that outperform their status.

 

That's well and fine for late June July August. You can put yourself behind the curve by then. You can waste a year by then. That's the part I don't want to see. They aren't a team that has talent so superior to their competition that they can afford lulls in the season caused by a roster that isn't properly prepared for the season.

 

I'm a football guy 1st and foremost. 53 guys, zero control beyond 53 guys (unless you count IR stashing). If a kid is equal to or close to equal to a vet you play the kid. MLB is totally different. You have 25 guys on the roster. 4-5 don't really have much impact. Another 15 are fully protected. Even more are in the minors with options and teams can't take them during the year. You can have a team 60 options deep for 25 spots. It's totally different. Your best chance of having a great 25 is to have as many bullets as possible. You can't do that by putting guys who you can stash onto the 25 in the place of vets who you can't stash.

 

When kids prove their way up the ladder, that's great. I'd love to see File have a wrecking ball season where he torches AA again, then dismantles AAA as well and he's sitting there waiting for a domino to fall because he's proving start in and start out that he's the best option. I'd love to see Burnes tell him to hold his beer. Then if Anderson goes down and Houser limps we got a vet and 2 kids fighting for a few spots. If they thrive and make 2021 Woodruff Lauer Linblom Burnes File Peralta a 6 man battle, that's going to save some serious money for MKE. Or give them pieces they couldn't afford to buy. But that's not 2020, and they need to add the rent a vets to make sure those spots are filled until those kids force their way into the next man up spot, and earn that spot once they get into it.

 

All off season I've been saying the same thing like a broken record. I get that. I also am very happy with David Phelps of all people. My sights on adds aren't set very high. It's not about them being solid or consistent or proven or expensive. It's all about options. I'd love Cashner to be added to this pen for a Phelps like deal. Will that work out? No idea. The numbers say it's plausible but it's another option. Every single option that you add is another chance to find success. Yes that pushes Devin or Feyereisen or whomever into AAA. Good. They can be stashed, so stash them. Make the AAA pen a super pen with 8 options jostling to be the next man up. That's GREAT because when a domino falls, and one will always fall, someone's going to have earned that spot.

[monty57]

TJ77,

 

If we could afford "proven" at every position, I'd be fine with that, but "proven" costs money. Someone in the Phelps thread posited that with the expected bonuses, we're around $107M right now. We went over budget last year, and I don't think Attanasio wants to do that again, at least not to add "meh" veterans to the roster. Maybe if a Grandal-type deal came up, but not for some guy who may or may not be better than what we already have.

 

Stearns has added stopgap veterans to cover most of our holes, and he knows the players in the system better than anyone. Maybe he likes some of his guys at league minimum more than he likes what's out there on the proverbial trash heap. Maybe in his mind those players have "earned it," and that's why he's not signing someone to block them.

 

Unless we can get something meaningful (like the Moose and Grandal deals last year), I don't want them to spend over budget to get a reclamation project to fill space until one of the non-star prospects "proves" he's the better option. That could lead to bad things, including not having the capital to pull off mid-season moves when something like your above-stated "what if" scenarios play out.

 

In large part I agree with you, and you state your case well. I guess I'm just saying that we can't afford to spend money on mediocrity just because that mediocrity has MLB service time.

[long ball]

My overall take on the Brewers roster right now is that it's good enough to be in contention in September which is really my hope going into every season as a Brewers fan. I want meaningful September baseball.

 

I don't think any of the teams in the central are clear favorites and I am not sure there is a team in the NL other than the Dodgers who I think is head and shoulders above the Brewers either.

 

So I don't necessarily think they're post season favorites, but they're certainly post season contenders. Make it to the playoffs and anything can happen.

[TJseven7]

108 vs 135. 2018 vs 2019.

 

Currently at 107. I'm not saying they need to spend another 28 mil. It also won't take another 28 million.

 

It really comes down to what is "proven." Proverbial trash heap. Meh Veterans. Reclamation project. Mediocrity.

 

Gyorko absolutely isn't trash heap. He cost 2 mil. Is he meh? If you chalk 2019 up to being an injury riddled down year he'd be worth 10-12 mil per. You can go as far as saying if he rebounds his option year (which is pricey compared to 2020) might actually be worth a lottery ticket in trade. He's a bounce back. He's also proven. He's just forgotten and cheap.

 

Phelps is the same thing. 1st year back from a TJ. Showed up half way through June. Did top 5 bullpen work in each of the last 3 years he pitched. Is that meh? He's done more in the pen in the last 3 years he pitched than anyone we called up out of the farm in 2019 except for Houser. If he rebounds in year 2 of post TJ (which is common) he could be very good and then the bonus' kick in and he'd still be underpaid.

 

Anderson is an injury prone meh veteran. Unless he stays healthy then he's a value despite the bonus'. Lindblom fits in there somewhere too. Those are the expensive ones, like Smoak and Sogard.

 

Everyone of these guys has done it. They are cheap compared to what they are capable of producing. In every league there are guys who fall through the cracks and get paid zilch compared to what they do. There's no good way to explain that but its constant in every league. Someone will race to pay some average guy 12 mil and the same guy with a different name will slide past teams because he's not their guy they'll go to someone else for 5 mil because homes dried up and offers didn't arise. If MKE was the type of team that chased and paid these guys COST I wouldn't be recommending this. MKE is a team who buys low. They need to also be the team that buys low in bunches. At times they've done this, at other times they've let this pass them by.

 

MKE understands the difference between paying Arby to Guerra and scooping Phelps. They nickle and dime. If you are smart enough to do that, attack at will. However, 2019 and 2020 have still been short on volume when it comes to the arms. I want them to be more aggressive on this front. There's 2 steps in front of them that they have seemingly ignored in the past 2 years.

 

1. Load up on cheap vets. If you can buy it undervalued, buy it. The kids can wait their turn.

2. Don't be afraid to sell off extras.

 

If they said, ok we believe we got Woodruff but there's also Peralta Burnes and Anderson. That looks WAY too young. You add Gio and Lyles right away. They cost 6 mil combined. You can't do that, that adds 6 mil on to 135 mil TJ7. Great, then sell Anderson. 2 birds and a lottery ticket for 1 bird. Same cost. 1 less kid on the opening day roster.

 

Sure they spiked cost last year with Grandal and Moose. They were very valuable. 1 cost us a pick. They netted us a lot of 2019 value. Nothing beyond. They helped keep the team afloat when the pitching side of the team was floundering. But why was the pitching side of the team floundering?

 

I don't think they should spike cost like that. I think they should load up on options. Load up on depth and if everything works out, don't be afraid to sell extras.

 

You're mid market, and DS is very very good. However, there's another level of genius he could hit if he would use his track record as proof and get even more aggressive with his capabilities. Ballard in the NFL is one of those bright minds who pushes the envelope. You look at his work and you have to admire it. But you also see how good he is and know that he's still being too tame. When you are good, trust it and attack. DS has that capability, he needs to be more aggressive in his value hording.

[Oxy]

This is a great thread. Lots of knowledgeable posters weighing in with thoughtful posts.

 

When the 40 man roster is full, you have a hard time adding more cheap veteran options because that could push another guy out of the organization completely. That's fine if that guy is out of options and doesn't have a great future (Deolis Guerra). However, they must have picked up guys like RR, Mathias, Yardley and Feyereisen for a reason (they liked them and they had options).

 

After jettisoning Guerra I'd imagine that Taylor Williams is the next to go, and that wouldn't hurt too bad. Tyrone Taylor's spot is probably in jeopardy as well. I think Phelps is the last add before Spring training, then there could be some more moves in the last week of March after seeing more of these guys up close and personal this Spring.

 

I like what Stearns did this offseason, but I don't really think they are true contenders this year. It looks like a .500 team with a lot of upside and question marks. Should be fun!

[TJseven7]

However, they must have picked up guys like RR, Mathias, Yardley and Feyereisen for a reason (they liked them and they had options).

 

We see that differently. Since FA started, MKE has added Narvaez, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko, Healy, Garcia, Lindblom and Phelps. I don't count Urias and Lauer for Davies and Grisham. I don't count Anderson for Anderson. Those moves are 40 man neutral. MKE has added from outside the organization; RR MM Yardley and Feyereisen. They have jettisoned Faria and Guerra.

 

That means at one point this off season they had roughly 10 spots open on their 40 man roster.

 

What is the value of open spots? Nothing. There is no tangible value to having open spots. They are needed to add players but the moment you need one you can always DFA someone to open 1 up. So early in the off season, when you have 10 spots doing you no good, its wise to grab anyone on the WW who you have an interest in. Filling open spots is the only way to give them value. Even if that value is insignificant, you claim people under your umbrella of control if you have the slightest degree of interest or if they have the faintest pulse. It's just a way to horde value in every way possible.

 

We've seen DS shuttle his 40 man every year. We've seen him scoop a guy and drop him to scoop a more interesting guy because he's trying to make the deepest 40 man roster he can get. He's trying to steal guys for the farm. The sooner the better because a lot of teams have open 40 man spots and competition is at it's greatest early in the off season for players like this. Then you go about FA. Spots start filling up. Ok 40 full. That doesn't mean stop. Faria was 41, he got bumped and slid into the minors because many teams are looking at a full 40 man roster this time of year. Guerra is on his path to the farm now, let's see if he's claimed.

 

There's nothing that prevents MKE from trying to shuttle RR through DFA to the minors. Nothing that stops them from trying to shuttle Taylor Williams through DFA to the minors.

 

Claiming these guys is no guarantee that they are highly valued or must be protected. It's just a smart way to gobble up depth for the farm when 40 man rosters have empty slots to slide them into the minors when 40 man rosters are all but full. It's following the trend of the market. Truly, if enough options were available that are somewhat interesting DS could have claimed his 40 man roster to full before FA even started. Then DFA'd a guy every time he added a guy to replace them. Always DFA'ing the weakest guy on the list.

 

It's just strategy. It's one of DS's aces up his sleeve. One of the creative ways he generates value out of thin air. It shouldn't be seen as MKE tying themselves to a guy.

[Oxy]

That's very fair and makes a lot of sense. Particularly for a guy like Yardley. MM and RR have value right now though simply because they are the only IF depth we have. If they are waived, they will need to be replaced by a similar player (or position, anyway).

[TJseven7]

That's very fair and makes a lot of sense. Particularly for a guy like Yardley. MM and RR have value right now though simply because they are the only IF depth we have. If they are waived, they will need to be replaced by a similar player (or position, anyway).

 

TWilliams, Yardley, Freitas (due to McDowell and Nottingham) are likely the next 3 up in some order.

[monty57]

108 vs 135. 2018 vs 2019.

 

Currently at 107. I'm not saying they need to spend another 28 mil. It also won't take another 28 million.

 

It really comes down to what is "proven." Proverbial trash heap. Meh Veterans. Reclamation project. Mediocrity.

 

Gyorko absolutely isn't trash heap. He cost 2 mil. Is he meh? If you chalk 2019 up to being an injury riddled down year he'd be worth 10-12 mil per. You can go as far as saying if he rebounds his option year (which is pricey compared to 2020) might actually be worth a lottery ticket in trade. He's a bounce back. He's also proven. He's just forgotten and cheap.

 

Phelps is the same thing. 1st year back from a TJ. Showed up half way through June. Did top 5 bullpen work in each of the last 3 years he pitched. Is that meh? He's done more in the pen in the last 3 years he pitched than anyone we called up out of the farm in 2019 except for Houser. If he rebounds in year 2 of post TJ (which is common) he could be very good and then the bonus' kick in and he'd still be underpaid.

 

Anderson is an injury prone meh veteran. Unless he stays healthy then he's a value despite the bonus'. Lindblom fits in there somewhere too. Those are the expensive ones, like Smoak and Sogard.

 

Everyone of these guys has done it. They are cheap compared to what they are capable of producing. In every league there are guys who fall through the cracks and get paid zilch compared to what they do. There's no good way to explain that but its constant in every league. Someone will race to pay some average guy 12 mil and the same guy with a different name will slide past teams because he's not their guy they'll go to someone else for 5 mil because homes dried up and offers didn't arise. If MKE was the type of team that chased and paid these guys COST I wouldn't be recommending this. MKE is a team who buys low. They need to also be the team that buys low in bunches. At times they've done this, at other times they've let this pass them by.

 

MKE understands the difference between paying Arby to Guerra and scooping Phelps. They nickle and dime. If you are smart enough to do that, attack at will. However, 2019 and 2020 have still been short on volume when it comes to the arms. I want them to be more aggressive on this front. There's 2 steps in front of them that they have seemingly ignored in the past 2 years.

 

1. Load up on cheap vets. If you can buy it undervalued, buy it. The kids can wait their turn.

2. Don't be afraid to sell off extras.

 

If they said, ok we believe we got Woodruff but there's also Peralta Burnes and Anderson. That looks WAY too young. You add Gio and Lyles right away. They cost 6 mil combined. You can't do that, that adds 6 mil on to 135 mil TJ7. Great, then sell Anderson. 2 birds and a lottery ticket for 1 bird. Same cost. 1 less kid on the opening day roster.

 

Sure they spiked cost last year with Grandal and Moose. They were very valuable. 1 cost us a pick. They netted us a lot of 2019 value. Nothing beyond. They helped keep the team afloat when the pitching side of the team was floundering. But why was the pitching side of the team floundering?

 

I don't think they should spike cost like that. I think they should load up on options. Load up on depth and if everything works out, don't be afraid to sell extras.

 

You're mid market, and DS is very very good. However, there's another level of genius he could hit if he would use his track record as proof and get even more aggressive with his capabilities. Ballard in the NFL is one of those bright minds who pushes the envelope. You look at his work and you have to admire it. But you also see how good he is and know that he's still being too tame. When you are good, trust it and attack. DS has that capability, he needs to be more aggressive in his value hording.

 

You're kind of proving that Stearns is looking for and making the moves you're asking for. There is a limit to the supply of good, cheap talent, so the fact that he's not going further could mean that guys you're asking for aren't out there. That's what I meant by adding "meh" or "mediocre" guys... Stearns is already adding the guys he wants. If he added Phelps but not another veteran reliever there's a reason for it, and that reason is probably that he doesn't like the available options more than he likes what he already has when all things are considered (price, talent, etc.).

 

As to the salary, we were only at that high of number last year because Moose and Grandal became available. No one should expect the Brewers to remain at that level. Basically, the blue collar family can eat at the fancy restaurant for special occasions, but normally they have to go Culver's. If they succumb to the peer pressure and go to the fancy restaurant too much, they won't be able to pay their mortgage and they'll lose their house.

[brewcrewdue80]

As others have mentioned, I think the NL Central is going to be a tight four-way race. Now, I think the question is, on January 30, 2020, which team would you PREFER to be going into the season? At this point, I would PREFER to be the Reds and it has everything to do with the rotation. A 1-2-3-4 of Castillo, Bauer, Gray, and Miley could be superb in 2020. One could make the argument, not saying that it's right, that each of those players is better than the Brewers #1 Woodruff. Predictability-wise, I'd go with the known quantities of those four over Woodruff, Houser, Lindblom, and Lauer.

 

Having said that, the Brewers function in a way that is abnormal to use as fans. They overachieve and it's beautiful to see. Perhaps we have been beaten down by the Brewers history where they always seemed to underachieve and die come August, but under Stearns and Counsell, they have often overcome more talented rosters, specifically the Cubs and their supposed rotational supremacy.

 

Have the Brewers done enough to be contenders? Yes. Have the Brewers done enough to be favorites in the NL Central? No.

 

Bauer has 1 season that beats Woodruff. Miley is old had his best ever performance the 16games he started for Milw season #9 for him. Was worse than Woodruff last season. Castillo I can give to you. Sonny Gray is an every other year results pitcher. This isn't his year for one. But I get it you mentioned one can make an argument. This is the retort. No way.

 

Linblom is the glue that makes or breaks what Stearns offseason will be graded as. He comes in carries an ERA below 3.7 and pitches 160+ then Stearns has won this offseason overall. Brett Anderson is Wade Miley and better if he pitches a full season. Lauer, I shown where his career is a 3.6 type ERA when you remove him from Coors Field. I think Lauer=Davies. We get the bonus of Urias to play SS where Arcia was the worst in baseball with the bat. Narvaez/Pina will make a solid Catching corps. 1b/3b is my concern but we contended last season with a wreck at both positions. Braun amount of playing time there may benefit more than we think. (100games say there vs maybe 50-70) So again this relies on Linblom and his results. Anderson is more fragile than Miley sure, but until he is injured, on paper a full season Anderson is better. Reverse optimism. Believe Bauer will be an Ace like that 1 season. Believe Miley will be like he was for Milw. Expecting Gray to be an Ace when he's just as often been a #4. If you're going to give these guys their best on paper, then you gotta put in some bests optimism on the Brewers team.